Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 230145

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service WAKEFIELD VA
945 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Canadian high pressure builds into the Mid Atlantic States
through Thursday. A gradual warming trend begins Friday into
the upcoming weekend. A more active weather pattern is
anticipated Sunday night into the first half of next week.


Winds continue to diminish late this evening under a clear sky.
Expecting winds to become calm away from the water overnight
which will set the stage for chilly readings. Still
anticipating lows of 22-25F north of Interstate 64 (including
interior MD Lower Eastern Shore), 26-28F inland VA/NE NC, and
29-33 far SE VA/NE NC coastal areas.


Canadian high pressure continues to settle over the Mid Atlantic
Region on Thu and then slowly slides offshore Thu night.
Slightly cooler with continued dry conditions Thu/Thu night.
Highs in the upper 40s to around 50F inland/low-mid 40s
immediate coast and MD/VA Eastern Shore. Lows in the upper 20s
to 32F inland /low-mid 30s beaches.

Dry with a gradual warming trend Fri through Sat as high
pressure shifts well offshore, and a warm front lifts northwest
of the area... allowing warm air advection to commence with
winds becoming more S-SW. Temperatures are expected to rebound
to 60-65F most inland areas (mid 50s to lower 60s beaches and
MD/VA Eastern Shore) due to breezy southwest winds gusting to
around 20 mph inland and up to 25 mph MD/VA Eastern Shore.
Overall conditions will be dry as mid-upper level ridging and
decent subsidence aloft dominates (i.e. best shower chances are
well north along the warm front). Otherwise, mid-high clouds
should stream across the region (especially north) in relatively
flat, upper level flow through Fri night. Lows around 50F.

Meanwhile, low pressure exits the Intermountain West into the
Central Plains Fri into Fri night. As the low tracks into the
wrn Midwest on Sat, a secondary warm front is expected to lift
through the area. This will allow for additional warming in
continued southwest sfc winds and a noticeable influx of
moisture as dewpoints increase to around 50F. Although clouds
should clear out across the SE half of the area during the day
(as is typical with a warm frontal passage), aftn cumulus
development and increasing cirrus from the west will keep partly
sunny wording in the forecast. Taking all of the above into
account as well as improved daytime heating with an increasing
sun angle, went with a blend of WPC/MOSGuide for highs on Sat
and bumped up the Eastern Shore due to the southwest winds
present. Expect highs in the mid 70s inland/low- mid 70s beaches).


Medium range of the forecast period characterized by near to
above normal temperatures, courtesy of arriving mid-level
ridging aloft, and surface high pressure oriented just off the
Mid Atlantic/Southeast Coast. Main weather features of note will
be a series of mid/upper level troughs...bringing a few periods
of scattered light precipitation over the weekend/early next
week. The first of these disturbances traverses across the
central/southern Plains on Saturday, dampening as it crosses
E-NE into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes on Sunday and into the
northeast on Monday. This feature will allow for some isolated
to scattered showers Sunday afternoon into early on Monday. QPF
will be limited with this feature. Instability and weakening
dynamics/forcing remain maximized well off to our N-NW, and will
therefore maintain 40-60% POP over our western/NW tier for some
sct to numerous showers Sunday evening into Monday morning, with
lesser pops for more isolated showers across the SE coastal
plain. Mild southerly flow will keep temps mild, with forecast
highs in the upper 50s to 60s Northern Neck and Lower MD Eastern
Shore...with upper 60s to low 70s inland for the weekend into
early next week.

For the middle of next week...attention turns to a pair of
shortwaves. A second southern stream disturbance is expected to
track east/northeastward from the CA coast...across the Plains
and Mid-South Late Sat to early Monday. This system will
continue to weaken as it pushes across the eastern third of the
CONUS Monday through early Tuesday. Meanwhile, a northern stream
system will drop from the PAC NW toward the northern plains
early Monday, eventually reaching the Great Lakes by the middle
of next week. Models are still split on the evolution of these
systems. The 12z/22 ECMWF and 00z EC Ensembles remains quicker
to dampen these features with the GFS/GEFS a bit stronger/more
amplified. Taking a middle of the road approach remains the
preference at this point, with the resultant blended solution
allowing for continued mild weather Mon to Wed with at least a
small chance for showers on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Shortwave
ridging rebuilds behind this system for Wednesday. Highs remain
mild through the period, with 50s and 60s over the Northern
Neck of VA into MD, with highs well into the 60s to Mid 70s
inland. Early morning lows mainly in the 40s to low 50s southern


Strong high pressure settles over the Mid Atlantic States Thursday
morning before moving off the coast Thursday night and Friday. Low
pressure and its associated frontal system will move out of the
southern Great Plains and approach the area by Sunday.

North winds will diminish this evening but remain gusty through the
early morning hours at ORF. Winds will be AOB 10 knots Thursday and
gradually veer to southeast. The sky will remain clear.

OUTLOOK...VFR conditions will continue through early Sunday. There
will be a good chance of showers late Sunday through Monday.


7 PM update...
All gale warnings were allowed to expire at 7 PM. SCA expired in
the eastern Virginia rivers except the lower James. Otherwise
     SCA will be in effect through early Thursday morning except
continuing in the coastal waters south of Cape Charles due to
seas through midday.

Previous discussion...
Latest obs reflect strong surge of northerly winds ongoing
across the waters this afternoon. Winds averaging north at
25-30 kt with gusts to 30-35 kt over the Bay and coastal waters
into the mouth of the James River.

Will be allowing Gale headline to expire over the Ches Bay north
of Little Creek, stepping back to SCA through tonight. Will
maintain a Gale for the Mouth of Chesapeake Bay and the coastal
waters through 23Z (7PM EDT) for winds generally 25-30 kt with
gusts to around 35-40 kt. LAPS/MSAS showing strong 3-hr pressure
rises on the order of 2-4 mb over the waters with decent flow
aloft mixing down 30-35 kt wind gusts over the waters this
afternoon. Low pressure slides farther off the Coastal Carolinas
through tonight as strong ~1040mb Canadian high pressure builds
from the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley. Pressure gradient
will slacken as the high builds overhead overnight. SCA over the
Rivers drop this evening, and over the Bay early Thu morning.
Existing Gales over the coastal waters and Mouth of the Bay and
the Currituck Sound should be able to be dropped on time early
this evening, with a period of SCA needed through the night
before dropping below SCA thresholds Thu Morning/early aftn over
southern waters. Seas of around 5-8 ft attm (highest southern
coastal waters) slowly subside tonight with waves of 4-5 feet.

High pressure settles over the waters Thursday morning with
winds becoming north to northeast at or below 15 knots. Seas
gradually subside from north to south Thursday morning, finally
dropping below 5 ft threshold in the southern coastal waters by
early Thursday afternoon.

High pressure slides offshore Thursday night with flow becoming
southwest Friday and lingering through Saturday. Speeds increase
to 15-20 knots Friday afternoon as a storm system develops over
the Midwest. The next front crosses the waters early next week,
with relatively benign marine conditions expected over the
weekend in light return flow, courtesy of high pressure anchored
over the western Atlantic. seas remain 2-3 ft, waves 1-2 ft.


Radar KDOX remains inoperable due to a bad spectrum filter.
Maintenance is expected to begin overnight with an estimated
(though possibly unstable) return to service is now Friday,
March 24th.


NC...High Surf Advisory until 1 AM EDT Thursday for NCZ102.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ630>634-
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ656-658.


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