Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 170115
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
915 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE
GRADUALLY WEAKENS OFF THE COAST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS FEATURES A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS, DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. MID-EVENING GOES WV/IR SAT IMAGERY SHOWING A WEAK UPPER
SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING, WITH REGIONAL
RADAR MOSAIC INDICATING SOME SCT CONVECTION PUSHING ACROSS WESTERN
NC JUST SOUTH OF KRDU. AT THE SURFACE, ~1020MB SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WAS ANALYZED OVER THE WESTERN OH VLY...WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. HAVE NOTED SOME VERY
LIGHT RAIN SHRA OVER CENTRAL VA OVER TO THE PENINSULA IN SOME
SHALLOW CONVERGENCE/CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. COULD SEE A FEW
SHRAS/SPRINKLES ACROSS SOUTHSIDE HAMPTON ROADS AND SOUTH CENTRAL
VA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT. HAVE
RETAINED INHERITED LOW POPS MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...COVERAGE SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS MOISTURE IS
RATHER LIMITED, SO WILL CONTINUE WITH AREAL COVERAGE WORDING IN
THE GRIDS/DIGITAL DB. SKY COVER SHOULD AVERAGE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY...ALTHOUGH THE LOWER MD ERN SHORE COULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S N...TO
THE LOW/MID 60S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY AS BROAD
LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A STRONGER SURFACE
HIGH BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OFF THE COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY AND THEN IT GRADUALLY WEAKENS THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS OVERALL
PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE NE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
VARIABLE CLOUDS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS SRN
PORTIONS...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS FAR
NRN PORTIONS. NOT MUCH FORCING IS EXPECTED...SO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ARE NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...A 15-20% POP (30% NEAR THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND) WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THURSDAY OVER FAR SRN/SE VA AND NE
NC TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY SHOWERS DRIFTING N FROM ERN NC. FORECAST POPS
ARE SUB 15% THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE LOW WEAKENS OFF THE
COAST. HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE THROUGH 70S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
LOWS THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S N...TO LOW 60S
SE...WITH LOW/MID 50S N TO LOW 60S SE FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT LEANING TOWARD THE GFS FOR LATE MON THRU
TUE. MAIN CNTR OF HI PRES WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN ATLC FRI NGT INTO
SAT NGT...WITH A WEAKER PIECE OF THE HI REMAINING OVR THE MID
ATLC STATES THRU MUCH OF SUN. NE-E WINDS EXPECTED FM FRI NGT INTO
SAT MORNG...THEN WINDS TURN FM SE TO SSW FOR SAT AFTN THRU SUN.
MAINLY DRY WX WILL PREVAIL THRU SUN WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUN NGT AND MON...BRINGING
A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS. THAT FRONT WILL SLOWLY SINK TO OFF THE SE
CST MON NGT AND TUE...AS HI PRES BLDS INTO THE GRT LKS AND OH VLY.
WILL HAVE A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS OVR THE SE COUNTIES ON TUE.

MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S INTO THE LWR 60S SAT MORNG...RANGE
FM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SUN MORNG...RANGE THRU THE 60S MON
MORNG...AND RANGE FM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S TUE MORNG. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPR 70S SAT...RANGE FM THE MID 70S TO LWR
80S SUN AND MON...AND GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID 70S TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. WEAK SFC LOW
DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACRS THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT INTO WED.
SHOULD SEE VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA WITH OVC IN SE
VA/NE NC. NE FLOW/MAINLY OVC WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN
FAR SE VA/NE NC WED...(MOST LIKELY FOR KECG). STILL ONLY LOOKS
LIKE CIGS DROPPING TO 2-3 K FT/MVFR FOR THE MOST PART. GENLY BKN
VFR SKIES AT KRIC/KSBY.

OUTLOOK... HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
NEW ENGLAND THU-SAT...WITH A SOMEWHAT BREEZY 10-20 KT OF NE FLOW
CONTINUING AT KORF/KECG. OVERALL...STILL EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER IN THIS PATTERN BUT LIKELY TOO MUCH MIXING AND
OVERNIGHT CLOUDINESS FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TNGT THRU THU. N OR NE-E WINDS
WILL DOMINATE THE WTRS TNGT THRU SAT...DUE TO ONE AREA OF HI PRES
BLDNG BY TO THE N AND OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST...FOLLOWED BY A
LARGER AREA OF HI PRES BLDNG FM THE GRT LKS EWRD AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND CST. WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ARND 15 KT OR LESS
THRU THE PERIOD...BUT COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER (ESPLY GUSTS) FRI
AND FRI NGT. THIS COULD ALSO CAUSE SEAS TO BLD TO 5 FT DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. WINDS TURN TO SE THEN SSW FOR SAT NGT AND SUN...AS HI
PRES WEAKENS AND A COLD FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH FM THE W.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH
     WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH
     WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH
     WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...LKB/DAP
MARINE...TMG








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