Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 260033
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
833 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will prevail across the Mid Atlantic through
Tuesday. Meanwhile, Maria will continue to track north well off
the coast while gradually weakening. Maria lingers off the Outer
Banks Wednesday, before pushing farther offshore Thursday ahead
of an approaching cold front late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Latest MSAS has high pres anchored over the Eastern Great Lakes
and Northeast Conus. Meanwhile, Hurricane Maria is located 280
miles SSE of HAT moving north at 7 mph. Stratus noted right
along the coast due to the moist NE onshore flow. Latest radar
shows the first batch of shwrs well ahead of Maria rotating
onshore across NC mainly along and south of the Albemarle Sound.

The low-level moisture along the coast this evening is expected
to spread inland with overcast conditions becoming prominent
most areas overnight. Latest high res data not all that bullish
in pushing much in the way of measurable pcpn inland tonight,
but will keep the low chc pops across the ern half of the fa
tonight given the moistening onshore flow. May even be a bit of
drizzle later on as the lowest levels moisten up. Lows from the
mid 60s inland to the low 70s along the immediate coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Maria continues to push N Tuesday, and perhaps slightly W of
due N as an upper low drops sewd across FL. Increasing moisture
and some outer banded features will result in 20-35% PoPs along
and E of I-95 Tuesday. QPF will be minimal for most areas. Highs
in the upper 70s to low 80s Tuesday under a mostly cloudy sky.
Becoming breezy along the coast with a NE wind increasing to
15-25 mph, with gusts up to 30-35 mph possible.

Maria reaches about 160mi ESE of Cape Hatteras by 00z
Wednesday, around 150mi E of Cape Hatteras by 12z Wednesday, and
then 140-180mi ENE of Cape Hatteras by 00z Thursday as some
spread remains in the guidance. NHC has Maria weakening to a
tropical storm during this time-frame. The offshore track will
result in minimal rainfall across SE VA/NE NC (and coastal MD to
a lesser degree), generally 0.50" or less. There is still a
potential for modestly strong wind gusts south of Cape Charles
on the coastal waters, and along the immediate coast from ORF/VA
Beach to the Currituck County beaches (including the Currituck
Sound). Tropical Storm Watches for these areas are currently in
effect which may be upgraded to Warnings later this afternoon.
High seas and minor or localized moderate coastal flooding will
also occur along the coast. Will have PoPs of 20-40% east of
I-95 Wed (40-50% coastal NE NC Tue night), with slight chc PoPs
into the Piedmont. Wind gusts could reach 30-45 mph from around
Norfolk/VA Beach southward into coastal NE NC. The biggest
impacts will likely be from tidal flooding and beach erosion
along/near the coast. Highs Wed from the upr 70s coast to the
low/mid 80s inland, after morning lows in the 60s and low 70s.

By 12z Thu, Maria is shown to move NE to around 200-260 miles
ENE of Cape Hatteras, then pushing well offshore by late in the
day. Will carry lingering slight chc PoPs (~20%) along the
coast for primarily the morning hours. Otherwise, decreasing
clouds through the day. Highs from the upr 70 coast to low/mid
80s inland.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Very quiet weather expected in the extended as a positively tilted
upper trough swings across the Great Lakes and Northeastern US
Friday and Saturday.  This trough will serve to escort Maria away
from the coast and at the same time push a weak cold front through
the region on Thursday night.  This will allow drier and cooler air
to move back into the region.  Expect overnight lows in the mid to
upper 50s Thurs and Friday night with highs Friday in the mid 70s. A
secondary area of low pressure and a reinforcing cold front will
slide through the area on Saturday as the upper trough pivots off
the coast on Saturday.  But moisture will be limited with the front
and the best chance for any showers will be over the Delmarva. By
Sunday, a strong area of high pressure is building across New
England and down the Eastern Seaboard on Sunday and Monday. This
will provide dry and seasonable temperatures with highs in the
low. to mid 70s and overnight lows in the low to mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR/IFR clouds being advected northward from Maria through
coastal and eastern NC. Also some scattered showers affecting
coastal NC moving westward. Expect all TAF sites to go IFR
during the night and persisting through much of the TAF period.
NE-E winds with be gusty 20-25 kt to the south early tonight and
then spread over SE Va by Tue morning.

Outlook: Increasing moisture from Maria will result in a 20-40%
chc for showers Tuesday/Wednesday. Locally stronger wind
speeds/gusts are expected at ORF/ECG Tuesday night/Wednesday. A
cold front approaches from the NW Thursday/Friday and pushes
Maria farther offshore with conditions improving
Thursday/Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Given the track of Maria and the broadening wind field, am
expecting that some tropical storm force conditions (especially
in gusts) will occur over the coastal waters south of the VA/NC
border starting as early as early Tuesday evening and continuing
into Wednesday as Maria moves east. Still a little more
uncertainty between Cape Charles and the VA/NC border and as
such have opted to maintain the tropical storm watch in this
area. Regardless, it looks like tropical storm force winds would
be away from the coast. In the lower bay, winds will be
increasing Tuesday Night into Wed. Given that the track stays
far enough offshore, it does not look like sustained TS winds
will be in the bay, but there could be a few gusts to near 35 kt
for a period late Tuesday night into Wed morning. As such, will
maintain the SCA for this area, as well as areas north of Cape
Charles. Winds/seas will start to improve Wednesday Night as
Maria rapidly moves east.

Please monitor the NHC forecast for the official forecast
track of Hurricane Maria.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tidal departures currently 0.5 to 1 ft today as northeast to
east winds begin to increase. Expect the departure to slowly
steadily increase as Maria moves northward through Wednesday.
Expect departures of 2 to 2.5 ft by Wednesday across the
southern Bay and areas south of Cape Henry along the ocean, with
1-1.5 ft departures northern bay into the northern coastal
waters. These values are similar to what we saw last week in
Jose. However, the astronomical tide is about 0.6 ft less this
week than last week in Jose. This should keep any coastal
flooding confined to minor in the southern bay and areas during
the time of high tide.

As with Jose, the main concern may end up being high surf and
potential coastal erosion. Will issue a High Surf Advisory for
the entire coastal waters starting tomorrow as the swell
associated with Maria moves into the region. Am still thinking
that nearshore waves of 8-11 ft are possible starting Tuesday
and continuing into Wednesday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...High Surf Advisory from 4 AM Tuesday to 7 PM EDT Wednesday for
     MDZ025.
NC...Tropical Storm Warning for NCZ017-102.
VA...High Surf Advisory from 4 AM Tuesday to 7 PM EDT Wednesday for
     VAZ099.
     High Surf Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 PM EDT Wednesday
     for VAZ098-100.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ632-634-
     638.
     Tropical Storm Warning for ANZ633-658.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ650-652-
     654.
     Tropical Storm Watch for ANZ656.
&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/MPR
SHORT TERM...AJZ/JDM
LONG TERM...JDM/JEF
AVIATION...AJZ/JDM
MARINE...MRD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...


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