Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 050756
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
356 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE LOW LIFTS
NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH IMPROVING
WEATHER CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESIDES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...SFC LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE WESTERN NC
PIEDMONT. BOTH LOWS WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE COURSE OF TODAY...WITH
THE SFC LOW REACHING THE NC COAST AROUND 18Z...AND THE UPPER LOW
FOLLOWING CLOSE BEHIND. THE UPR LOW REACHES EASTERN NC TONIGHT...THEN
LIFTS NE TO THE SE VA COAST BY 12Z FRIDAY. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS
SHOW SCT SHOWERS ACROSS THE N-NW COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS OVER BERTIE COUNTY. EXPECT TO SEE AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG AND WEST OF I-95 CORRIDOR
HEADING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS INTO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
INCREASED POPS FARTHER EAST THIS AFTN/EVE AS THE PAIR OF LOWS MAKE
THEIR WAY SE. MODELS ARE SHOWING HIGHEST POPS TODAY TO BE FOCUSED
ACROSS OUR SW COUNTIES...BASICALLY FROM FXV- PTB-EMV-ASJ AND
POINTS SW...WITH A DEFORMATION ZONE SETTING UP IN THESE AREAS TO
FOCUS PCPN AND PERHAPS PRODUCE SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN THIS
AFTN/EVE. HIGHS POPS REMAIN ACROSS THE SW THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT
BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO EAST CENTRAL VA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI
MORNING AS THE UPR LOW PIVOTS NE. WITH A 12-HR PERIOD OF FOCUSED
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE SW CWA...THERE IS A
CONCERN FOR FLOODING...HOWEVER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS RATHER HIGH
THERE (2.5-3.5" IN 3-6 HRS)...SUGGESTING MORE OF AN URBAN AND
SMALL STREAM FLOOD THREAT. AS SUCH...WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH...BUT WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL THROUGH TODAY.
THICKNESSES WILL BE HELD DOWN BY CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS TODAY...SO EXPECT WELL-BELOW-NORMAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S. LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE UPR 40S TO LOW 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE UPR LOW WILL WOBBLE NORTHWARD ALONG THE DELMARVA COAST ON
FRIDAY...BEFORE LIFTING NE INTO EASTERN PA/NJ BY 12Z SAT.
CONTINUED UNSETTLED WX IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH
NUMEROUS SHOWERS EXPECTED. HAVE HIGH POPS 60-80% FOR MOST AREAS.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL DWINDLE AFTER NIGHTFALL WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING
AND THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPR LOW. WILL TREND POPS DOWN TO SLIGHT
CHC OR LOW CHC POPS FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS FRI 60-65. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT FROM THE UPR 40S WEST TO THE LOW/MID 50S COAST.
SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A DRIER DAY WITH THE UPR LOW
WEAKENING AND PUSHING OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...MAY BE SOME RESIDUAL
ISOLD SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST. WITH SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS EXPECTED BY AFTN...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH
THE UPR 60S TO LOW 70S. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHEST
OVER THE VA PIEDMONT AND INTERIOR NE NC...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN POSSIBLE THRU FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW SATURDAY NIGHT AND LOOKS ON
TRACK TO CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. GFS/CMC/ECMWF TIMING IS FAIRLY
SIMILAR...WITH THE FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO NC BY MIDDAY SUN.
MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED WITH THIS BOUNDARY...WITH SO WILL
MAINTAIN THE 20%/SLIGHT CHC POP WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGHS
SUNDAY RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S (AROUND 80 F SOUTH) AFTER
MORNING LOWS IN THE 50S. A MID/UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO GENERALLY DRY AND MILD TO WARM
CONDITIONS. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 70S MONDAY LOOK TO
MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW-MID 80S TUE/WED. WITH A WEAK
SFC BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA AS THIS WARMING TREND OCCURS
COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS ON TUE THOUGH WILL KEEP POPS CAPPED AT
20%. NEXT COLD FRONT SLATED FOR LATE WED/THU...SO HAVE 20-30% CHC
POPS BY WED AFTN (HIGHEST NW).

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD INTO EARLY FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY.
THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE
SLIDING TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY.

WIDESPREAD IFR/LCL IFR CONDITIONS OVER AREA TERMINALS THIS
MORNING, WITH PERIODIC DZ/BR A CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING. STILL
EXPECT SHORT LIVED IMPROVEMENT TO HIGH END IFR AT ALL SITES BY
EARLY AFTN...IMPROVING TO LOW END MVFR AT RIC/PHF. EXPECT SHOWERS
TO AGAIN BECOME MORE NUMEROUS BY THIS AFTN ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT
SBY (WHICH WILL SEE SHOWERS A BIT LATER THU NIGHT).

OUTLOOK...UPPER LOW LINGERS OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT
ANY POCKETS OF LOW END MVFR DROP BACK INTO IFR RANGE TOMORROW
NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTN/NIGHT. SCT SHRAS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT COMES ON
SATURDAY. DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FOR LATER SAT
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES RETREATING SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER ERN
CANADA...AS BROAD UPPER LOW BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NE ALONG THE GULF STREAM TODAY/TONIGHT, WITH A
SECONDARY LOW HANGING BACK OVER VA/NC THROUGH FRI.

HAVE RAISED SCA FLAGS IN THE MOUTH OF CHESAPEAKE BAY/CURRITUCK SOUND
FOR TODAY WITH E-NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT EXPECTED. HAVE ALSO FILLED IN
SCA HEADLINES FOR REMAINDER OF OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATER ZONES WITH SEAS ALREADY AT 4 FT AT THIS HOUR AT BUOYS 96 & 100
(AND PROGGED TO BUILD TO ~5FT LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTN PER
NWPS AND WAVEWATCH). ALSO EXTENDED SCA THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
PREDOMINATE NE FLOW PERSISTENT IN THIS AREA. WAVES IN THE BAY SHOULD
AVG 2-3 FT THROUGH TONIGHT (SIG WAVE HEIGHTS LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 4 FT
IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY.)

WINDS DROP OFF A BIT ON FRIDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AGAIN,
ALLOWING WINDS TO BE A BIT MORE VARIABLE FRI AFTN AND NIGHT W/WIND
SPEEDS REMAINING AOB 10-15KT. USED A BLENDED MODEL SOLUTION BASED ON
THE GEFS/GLOBAL GEM AND ECMWF FOR WIND SPEED/DIRECTION, WHICH ALL
HANDLE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SIMILARLY DURING THE FRI/SAT
PERIOD. THIS SECOND LOW EVENTUALLY GETS KICKED OFFSHORE SAT
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE WATERS LATER
SUNDAY/SUN NGT. NOT MUCH COLD AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT SO DOUBT ANY
ADDITIONAL SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME FRAME. SEAS
REMAIN SUB-SCA SAT/SUN...AVERAGING 2-4 FT AND 1-2 FT WAVES IN THE
BAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RISING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ALONG WITH CONTINUED NE FLOW IS LEADING TO
TIDAL DEPARTURES CURRENTLY AVERAGING AROUND 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL.
WHILE WE DID SEE SOME SPOTTY NUISANCE TIDAL FLOODING LATE LAST
NIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING...INCREASING ANOMALIES WILL BRING A MORE
WIDESPREAD EXCEEDANCE OF MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLDS WITH THE EVENING
HIGH TIDE TONIGHT. THUS, AN UPGRADE TO COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE
ANTICIPATED ALONG COASTAL ZONES FOR TONIGHT`S CYCLE. IN THE INTERIM,
A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY OVER MUCH OF THE
LOWER BAY/SRN COASTAL WATERS TO REFLECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF
MARGINAL/NUISANCE-TYPE TIDAL FLOODING WITH THE UPCOMING HIGH TIDE
CYCLE LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ025.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.