Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270553
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1253 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE
FRONT AND CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE MOVING OFF THE
COAST MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SCT-BKN CIRRUS FLOWING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CARIBBEAN WILL STREAM ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
SHIFTS EWD OVERNIGHT...THE CIRRUS WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE EAST AND
SOUTH FROM ITS MOST CURRENT POSITION GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 64. MADE ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER WITH ONLY
PARTLY CLOUDY WORDING IN FORECAST PER THIS EXPECTED TREND.
OVERALL...THE CIRRUS SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON FALLING TEMPS
TONIGHT. STILL EXPECTING LOWS AROUND 30 INLAND AND IN THE
MID-UPPER 30S FOR SE VA/NE NC COASTAL LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY. LIMITED MIXING AND
A LIGHT SW WIND IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY, THOUGH WILL BE
PARTIALLY OFFSET BY WARMING ALOFT. THIS SHOULD YIELD MAXIMA ABOUT
A CATEGORY WARMER THAN THOSE OF TODAY, OR UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
INLAND, MID TO UPPER 50S COASTAL ZONES AND THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE.
GRIDS WILL AVERAGE OUT SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY, THOUGH WE`LL BEGIN
TO SEE SOME LOWERING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY AND SAT
NGT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. LOWS SAT NGT MAINLY IN THE 40S
UNDER A MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKY.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, WHICH APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE TN VLY LATE SAT
THROUGH SUNDAY, DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATER SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. HAVE INCREASED POP INTO CHC RANGE LATE SAT
NGT/SUNDAY MORNING WITH INITIAL BATCH OF OVERRUNNING MOISTURE
LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA, WITH RAIN REMAINING LIKELY FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION, ESPECIALLY NORTH/CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THAT REASON, HAVE BUMPED POP INTO 50-60%
RANGE ACROSS THE NORTH, TAPERING BACK TO 30-40% SOUTH. HIGHS
SUNDAY IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

POPS INCREASE TO LKLY RANGE FOR MOST OF OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
MAIN SHORTWAVE EJECTING EAST ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WILL INTERACT
WITH THE COLD FRONT AS IT SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION AND
INTO THE CAROLINAS EARLY MONDAY. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ALL HANDLE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY A LITTLE BIT DIFFERENTLY. CMC IS A BIT MORE
AMPLIFIED THAN EITHER THE 12Z/26 ECMWF OR GFS. HOWEVER, ALL MODELS
ARE CLOSE IN DEPICTING BEST FORCING/UPPER SUPPORT SLIDING ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. QPF ON THE ORDER OF BETWEEN A HALF
AND THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. KEPT
LOWS ON THE MILD SIDE WITH ONGOING CLOUDS/PCPN...IN THE LOW 40S
NW TO LOWER 50S SE COASTAL PLAIN. SFC LOW SLIPS OFFSHORE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH SFC FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OF THE AREA
LATE IN THE DAY. POPS RAMP DOWNWARD THROUGH THE DAY, WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE EAST DIMINISHING BY SUNSET. CLEARING
WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED WITH ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTING AT LOW LVLS
MONDAY AFTN/EVE. HOWEVER, TEMPS WILL GET OFF TO A MILD START
ACROSS THE SOUTH. THIS COMBINED WITH SHALLOW MIXING WILL RESULT IN
A RATHER SHALLOW DIURNAL CURVE, W/HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 40S NORTH
TO MID 50S SOUTH, UNDER A MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 6 /NEXT THURSDAY/ WITH
REGARD TO OVERALL PATTERN. A COLD ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL ALOFT
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO AND ACROSS THE
AREA FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR
LATE DECEMBER. LOW TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S...THEN IN THE 25 TO
30 DEGREE RANGE /A BIT WARMER NEAR THE COAST/ TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IN THE
40S.

GFS/ECMWF DIVERGE A BIT GOING INTO NEXT FRIDAY...WITH GFS FASTER AND
FURTHER SOUTH WITH LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING
ENE/NEWD OUT OF THE PLAINS/MS VLY. REGARDLESS...FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY NEXT WEEK LOOK TO BE UNSETTLED...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
TO NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN NC BRINGING LIGHT FLOW AND
PATCHY GROUND FOG TO A FEW SITES OVER SE VA/NE NC AS OF 06Z. HAVE
INCLUDED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT KPHF ALTHOUGH DID NOT GO WITH 1/4SM
AS THE PREVAILING VSBY AS IT HAS BEEN VARIABLE. ELSEWHERE...GENLY
JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS W/ VFR CONDITIONS (INCLUDED TEMPO 3SM VSBY
AT KORF). VFR/MOSTLY CLEAR OTHER THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDS FOR ALL AREAS
AFTER 12Z. LIGHT SSW FLOW TODAY (COULD BECOME LIGHT NE/ONSHORE AT
KORF FOR A FEW HRS THIS AFTN BUT DID NOT INCLUDE THIS IN TAF).

OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THIS ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND PERIODS OF
IFR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE WEATHER IMPROVES FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES.

&&

.MARINE...
FAIRLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE MARINE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER OR JUST EAST OF THE AREA.
WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE 10 KTS OR LESS...
WITH SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS AND WAVES 1 TO 2 FEET ON THE BAY. NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA LATE SUNDAY...AND CROSSES THE
AREA ON MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTH...ALTHOUGH ALL MODELS SUGGEST THE SURGE WILL REMAIN BELOW
SCA CRITERIA. HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WILL
MAKE FOR CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON BOTH THE BAY AND OCEAN FROM LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KDOX 88D RADAR IS EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF SERVICE THROUGH AT LEAST
WED 12/31. SEE FTMDOX (FREE TEXT MESSAGE) FOR DETAILS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...BMD/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...WRS
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...WRS
EQUIPMENT...





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