Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 191354
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
954 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND OFF THE COAST. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHARP CUTOFF IN THE RA CONTS ACRS THE FA...NRN 1/2 JUST
MCLDY...SRN PORTION MNLY LGT RA. LATEST HRR SUGGESTS A GRADUAL
DRYING TREND IN THE PCPN ACRS THE NRN PORTION OF THE RA...THOUGH
KEEPS AT LEAST SCT PCPN FM SE VA TO NE NC THROUGH THIS EVE. WILL
CONT W/ POPS 70% OR HIGHER MNLY ALG AND S OF A LINE FM LUNENBURG
COUNTY VA TO PTB-KIPTOPEKE...W/ SLGT CHC-CHC POPS N TO A LINE FM
ABT WAL-OFP TO NRN CUMBERLAND COUNTY IN VA. VRB CLDS TO MCLDY FAR
N...TO RMNG MNLY CLDY OVR THE REST OF THE FA THROUGH THE AFTN.
MADE SLGT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS...W/ HI TEMPS RANGING FM THE M/U50S
S TO M60S FAR N.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE RAIN SHIELD WILL GRADUALLY SINK SSE TNGT THRU SUN NGT...AS
THE SFC HI PRES BLDS ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND JUST OFFSHR. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE LO PRES AREA AND ITS MOISTURE TO PUSH A LITTLE
FARTHER AWAY FM THE SE AND MID ATLC CSTS. SO...DECREASING CHCS FOR
RAIN FM NW TO SE...WITH IMPROVING SKY CONDITIONS. UPR RDG OF HI
PRES THEN BLDS OVR THE REGION DURING MON...RESULTING IN A PRTLY OR
MSTLY SNY SKY. LO TEMPS TNGT RANGING FM THE LWR 40S TO THE LWR
50S. MAX TEMPS ON SUN RANGING FM 55 TO 60 AT THE CST...TO THE
MID TO UPR 60S INLAND/PIEDMONT. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR
30S TO UPR 40S SUN NGT...WITH HIGHS ON MON RANGING FM THE UPR 50S
TO LWR 60S AT THE CST...TO THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR SEASONABLE NORMAL TEMPS WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED PERIOD
FORECAST. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE LOCAL AREA ON
TUESDAY.

SRN STREAM ASSOCIATED COASTAL LOW SLOWLY LIFTS NEWD OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST MON NIGHT-TUES MORNING AS A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE OH VALLEY. ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA AS THE PARENT LOW LIFTS
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA TUES AFTERNOON AND
OFF THE COAST TUES EVENING. WHILE THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE OVER
THE OH VALLEY AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA...A WEAKER
LEADING SHORTWAVE WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING WINDS ALOFT FOR
AMPLE FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT. PRECIP WATERS WILL BEGIN
TO RECOVER AS LOW LEVEL H85 FLOW INCREASES. THE RESULT WILL BE
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS. THETA-E ADVECTION AND TEMPS IN THE
MID-UPPER 70S WILL ALSO PRODUCE A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...SO THUNDER
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH.
HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 50S...LITTLE CAPE/LIFT IN THE
MIXED PHASE LAYER AND MODEST SHEAR WILL LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE.
HAVE ONLY MENTIONED A SLIGHT CHANCE TUES AFTERNOON FOR THUNDER.
REMNANT MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN NWLY FLOW WILL COINCIDE WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS OVER THE LOCAL AREA TUES NIGHT-WEDS MORNING...AS
ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WEDS SOME
SPRINKLES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN LOCAL AREA AND ERN
SHORE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WEDS NIGHT-THURS. A
WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THURS
NIGHT-FRI AS A WRN CONUS TROUGH AMPLIFIES AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
EAST. FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A
FRONT POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S (TO NEAR 80 INLAND) THANKS
TO SLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COOLER WEDS-
THURS BEHIND THE FRONT (NW-W WINDS) WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 60S-LOW 70S. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE WILL WARM TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S
FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S EXCEPT
THURS MORNING WHEN LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID-UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CURRENTLY NOTING MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SE COASTAL SITES, WITH
SOME LCL IFR IMPACTING ECG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO/FL PANHANDLE
THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ENE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC TROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE
PERSIST OVER THE FA THROUGH SAT. SWATH OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM IS FALLING FROM A 6-8KFT DECK, SO EXPECT A BRIEF
IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS AT PHF/ORF IN -RA OR SPRINKLES. VCSH F0R A
FEW MORE HRS, WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHRAS REACHING TAF SITES AFTER
08Z SAT. NORTHERN TERMINALS LOOK TO BE TOO FAR NORTH TO SEE ANY
PRECIP, BUT DID BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHRAS TO RIC BETWEEN
10-15Z BEFORE DRYING OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE THE NW,
HELPING TO DRY OUT THE AIRMASS AND ELIMINATE ANY PRECIP CHANCES
THIS AFTN/EVENING. HOWEVER, EXPECT MVFR CONDS TO PERSIST AT
ORF/ECG THROUGH THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK: NE FLOW CONTINUES SAT NGT THOUGH MON AS HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE AREA MOVES E AND WEDGES SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT,
WITH VFR CONDS RETURNING WED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT LIGHT N-NE FLOW OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING. WX
ANALYSIS FEATURES SFC LOW PRESSURE (AT THE SFC AND ALOFT) OVER THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH E-NE
ALONG THE GA/SC COAST TODAY. THE RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED NE-E FLOW
OVER THE WATERS, WHICH WILL SLOWLY INCREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SCA
MAINLY FOR SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
MONDAY, AND AN SCA HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR TODAY OVER THE CURRITUCK
SOUND WITH THIS PACKAGE. FLAGS FOR THE LOWER BAY AND LOWER JAMES
FOLLOW SHORTLY THEREAFTER THIS EVENING, AS THE SFC LOW WILL SLOWLY
BUILDS E-NE THRU THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK (AS 1030+MB SFC
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS N OF THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK).
FLAGS WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE BAY AND POSSIBLY THE
YORK/RAPPAHANNOCK BY AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY.

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY,
WITH NE-E FLOW TO PERSIST THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN 4-6 FT SUNDAY, LIKELY BUILDING TO 6-9 FT (HIGHEST SOUTH) AS
NE WINDS INCREASE LATER SUN AND EARLY MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO
TIGHTENING GRADIENT. HEADLINES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THRU THE FOURTH
PERIOD (SUNDAY NGT) FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS.

FLOW RETURNS TO THE E-SE MON NIGHT AS LOW EXITS AND GRADIENT
SLACKENS. WINDS VEER S-SW BY TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK COOL
FRONT, WHICH WILL CROSS THE WATERS TUES AFTERNOON-EVENING. WINDS
WILL BACK TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOW END SCA CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE TUES NIGHT-WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ632-634-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB/TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM










USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.