Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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088
FXUS61 KAKQ 142113
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
413 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS
EVENING. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY...TRACKS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TUESDAY MORNING. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
QUIET/COLD/DRY AFTN ACRS THE RGN...DESPITE SUNSHINE...TEMPS HAVE
ONLY REACHED THE M-U20S IN MOST PLACES. DEWPTS RMN AOB 0F. WNDS
MUCH LIGHTER NOW THAN 24 HRS AGO...SO A WIND CHILL NOT A FACTOR.

NEXT SYS QUICKLY APPROACHING FM THE W. SN HAS ALREADY REACHED
PORTIONS OF ERN KY/NE TN THIS AFTN...W/ AN AREA OF CLDNS
BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVR THE MTNS TWD THE FA. AS STATED
BEFORE...AIR IS EXTREMELY DRY...AND WILL IMPEDE THE INITIAL
PROGRESS OF ANY PCPN HERE THROUGH MID EVE. THERMAL PROFILE RMNS
COLD FOR PTYPE TO BE SN TNGT EVERYWHERE IN FA. TRENDS HAVE BEEN
SHOWING THAT ARRIVAL OF SN HAS BEEN PUSHED UP A COUPLE OF HRS (LT
THIS EVE AS OPPOSED TO AFT MDNGT). SN IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD
THE FA W-E OVRNGT...LASTLY AT THE CST (LT). AN ACCUM OF 1-3 INCHES
XPCD W OF I 95...TAPERING TO ABT 1/2-1 INCH NR THE CST BY 12Z/15.
TEMPS DROP TO THE UPR TEENS-LWR 20S THIS EVE...LEVEL OFF...THEN
MAY RISE A FEW DEGS F AFT MDNGT (BUT RMN BLO 32F). THERE IS SOME
CONCERN THAT PORTOINS OF ERN SHORE MAY NEED WINTER WX ADVISORY IF
MORE INTENSE SN REACHES THAT AREA. ADDED A TIER TO THE E IN SE
VA/INTERIOR NE NC FOR LGT SN (THEN EVENTUAL PTNTL FOR A SHORT PD
OF ZR AND AT LEAST A TRACE OF ICE MON MRNG). OTRW...CURRENT
WARNING/ADVISORIES RMN IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPCOMING WX EVENT WILL BE IN TWO PARTS. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE
W/ PTYPE TRANSITION EVENTS...EXACT TIMING OF THE CHANGES IN PTYPE
DIFFICULT. CONTD SN EARLY/MID MRNG MON MRNG BEGINS TO TRANSITION
TO MIXED PTYPE SE TO NW (RA AT CST IN SE VA/NE NC-AND GRADUALLY
UP THE ERN SHORE) BY MID/LT MRNG-EARLY AFTN. ADDITIONAL SN ACCUMS
PSBL FM ABT 12-15Z/16...BRINGING TOTALS TO 3-5 INCHES PIEDMONT IN
CNTRL VA...TIER OF 2-4 INCHES BORDERING THAT AREA TO THE I95
CORRIDOR...THEN TRACE-2 INCHES E AND SE AREAS. HIGHEST QPF LIKELY
TO SHIFT TO THE E FOR MON AFTN/EVE AS TEMPS ARE SLO TO RISE (RMNG
BLO 32F ACRS THE PIEDMONT IN CNTRL VA...REACHING 32F NR THE I95
CORRIDOR...TWD THE L-M40S TO THE E (ESP IN SE VA/NE NC) THROUGH LT
AFTN/EVE.

AFT RELATIVE BREAK IN PCPN OVR MUCH OF THE FA MON EVE...NEXT ROUND
OF PCPN (RA) TO ARRIVE W-E MON NGT (BEFORE MDNGT W-BY LT NGT AT
THE CST) AS LO PRES TRACK NE JUST E OF THE MTNS. THERE MAY BE A
FEW LINGERING POCKETS OF ZR OVR PARTS OF LOUISA/FLUVANNA UNTIL
AFT MDNGT MON NGT. TOTAL ICE ACCUMS FOR THE EVENT RANGING FM A
COUPLE OF TENTHS (ALG-E OF I 95) TO JUST OVR A TENTH OF AN INCH
(W OF I 95). OTRW...HAVE CONTD MENTION OF HVY RA FOR MON NGT/TUE
MRNG. AXIS OF RA PROGRESSES OVR FA TUE MRNG...EXITING THE CST
EARLY- MID AFTN (W/ PARTIAL CLEARING IN ITS WAKE). TEMPS STEADY OR
RISING MON NGT. HI TEMPS TUE FM ARND 50F FAR NW TO ARND 60F SE.

S/W WILL CLIP THE FA LT TUE NGT INTO EARLY WED MORNING W/ A
CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW ACRS THE NRN TIER COUNTIES. A LGT SN ACCUM
PSBL. OTRW PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY TUE NGT...CLEARING OUT WED. LO
TEMPS TUE NGT IN THE L30S N...M-U30S ELSW. HI TEMPS WED IN THE
U40S-L50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EAST COAST ON
THURSDAY...SHIFTING OFF THE COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY.
A MODERATING TREND COMMENCES LATE WEEK AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE
AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BRINGING A CHANCE
OF RAIN SHOWERS. NEXT FRONT PROGGED TO IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS AGAIN BEING THE MAIN CONCERN.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WINDS ALONG THE COAST HAVE DIMINISHED AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...CAUSING THE TIGHTER TEMP/PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO BE PUSHED WELL OFFSHORE.

COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT FROM THE SW-W. PLENTY OF COLD AIR IN PLACE FOR PRECIP
TO BEGIN AS ALL SNOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING
FOR ALL TAF SITES. HOWEVER...A DEEPENING LOW MOVING IN FROM THE SW
IS EXPECTED TO PULL WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS CNTRL VA
(PRIMARILY IMPACTING KRIC) AND A CHANGEOVER TO ALL RAIN ACROSS FAR
SE VA/NE NC.

SFC LOW TRACKS ACROSS WV AND WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW ALL
PRECIP TO TRANSITION TO MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL MONDAY NIGHT.
CIG/VIS RESTRICTIONS BEGIN AS MVFR SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WILL QUICKLY
DROP TO IFR BY MONDAY MORNING AND ARE ANTICIPATED TO MAINTAIN IFR
(AND POSSIBLY LIFR) CIGS/VIS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AFTN BEFORE
CONDITIONS START TO IMPROVE.

ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE SKIRTS ACROSS CNTRL VA TO THE MD
LOWER EASTERN SHORE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...LIKELY BRINGING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA AND
POSSIBLY IMPACTING KRIC AND KSBY.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE DROPPED ALL SCA`S THAT WERE IN EFFECT INTO THIS EVENING. HAVE
HOISTED NEW SCA`S FOR THE PERIOD OF LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR ALL
WATERS.

WINDS REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT FROM THE E-SE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES WELL OFFSHORE. A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW-W LATE TONIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK NE ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA LATE MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NWD ACROSS THE WATERS MON AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME
MORE SLY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AND INCREASE TO 15-25KT ALL WATERS
LATE MON EVENING (EXCEPT 15-20KT ERN VA RIVERS) WITH GUSTS UP TO
30KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. DURING THIS SAME TIMEFRAME...SEAS ALSO
EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 5-8FT(SOUTH) AND 6-10FT(NORTH)...WITH WAVES TO
3-4FT (UP TO 5FT IN THE MOUTH OF CHES BAY). WINDS ANTICIPATED TO
DIMINISH BELOW SCA LEVELS TUE AFTN. HOWEVER...SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ELEVATED INTO WED. A MUCH WEAKER WEATHER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE NRN
WATERS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING BUT SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL
IMPACTS OTHER THAN WINDS SHIFTING AROUND TO THE WEST AOB 15KT. SEAS
POSSIBLY REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THU UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE CAN BUILD
OVER THE AREA THU NIGHT/FRI.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST
     MONDAY FOR NCZ012>014.
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR VAZ048-060>062-069-509-510.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM EST
     MONDAY FOR VAZ075>078-081>083-085-087>090-518>522.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST
     MONDAY FOR VAZ084-086-092-093-096-523>525.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST
     MONDAY FOR VAZ064>068-079-080-511>517.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ633.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...JDM/DAP
AVIATION...BMD/DAP
MARINE...JDM



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