Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290829
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
429 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS BACK OVER THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ISOLD -SHRAS RMN WELL W OF I-95 ATTM. AREAS OF FG (ESP WHERE RA
OCCURRED TUE) WILL BE INCLUDED IN FCST (AWAY FM THE CST AND IN SE
VA/NE NC) THROUGH ABT 13Z/29. WRT POPS...WILL HOLD ONTO SLGT CHC
POPS ALG-W OF I-95 THIS MRNG. OVERALL WX PATTERN RMNS UNCHANGED FM
TUE. WK UPR LVL RIDGING RMNS JUST OF THE FA...W/ LGT NW FLO ALOFT
INTO THE MDATLC STATES. XPCG SIMILAR COVERAGE AREA TO CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT TDA...MNLY AWAY FM THE CST. LOCALLY HVY RA/BRIEF GUSTY
WNDS PRIMARY THREATS FM ANY TSTMS. HOLDING ONTO 25-30% POPS ALG
AND W OF I-95...10-20% ELSW. OTRW...VRB CLDS TO PARTLY SUNNY W/ HI
TEMPS IN THE U80S-ARND 90F...W/ L-M80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SEASONABLE ANG TNGT AFT ANY CONVECTION DIMINISHES BY MDNGT. LO
TEMPS IN THE L/M 70S.

THURSDAY...
UPR RIDGING RETROGRADES A BIT THURSDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. DUE TO THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT...CHC POPS (30-50%) WILL REMAIN ACRS NNW AREAS DURING THE
AFTN...LWRG TO 15-20% ACRS FAR SE VA/CSTL NE NC. HI TEMPS IN THE
L90S...XCP M/U80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING
ACROSS FAR SE VA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY. HAVE CHC POPS
(30-50%) MOST AREAS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THROUGH MIDDAY
FRI...THEN FOCUS LINGERING CHC POPS ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC FRIDAY
AFTN. DRY WX SHOULD RETURN TO NW AREAS BY LATE MORNING OR
AFTERNOON. LO TEMPS THU NGT IN THE 70S. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE U80S-
L90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PATTERN BEGINS WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE SW CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PERSISTING ACRS HUDSON BAY
CANADA. GFS/ECMWF INTO BETTER DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES SAT...THEN FLATTEN OUT
SUN WITH A SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACRS THE MID ATLC BY MON.

FRONT STALLS AND WEAKENS OVER FAR SRN VA/NC LATE FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND. BEST CHC FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ACRS THE FAR SOUTH/MAINLY
NE NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT EVEN HERE WILL ONLY GO WITH A 20-30%
POPS/PRIMARILY FOR THE AFTN/EVENING TIMEFRAME (TAPERED TO 20% FAR
SRN VA AND DRY ELSEWHERE). DID RAISE POPS A BIT FOR MON DUE TO THE
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH BUT NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE AS THIS IS 5-6
DAYS OUT SO WILL GENLY KEEP POPS ONLY AT 30-40% SOUTH TO 20% NORTH.
KEEPING POPS AROUND 20% ALL AREAS TUE. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY RANGING FROM THE
MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND.
LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPR LEVEL RIDGING WILL EXPAND EWD FM THE SRN PLAINS TODAY. THIS
WILL HELP TO LIMIT AFTN TSTMS FOR THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA
(INCLUDING TAF SITES KSBY/KPHF/KORF/KECG). HOWEVER...THERE IS
JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND ENERGY WRAPPING ARND THE UPR RIDGE TO
KEEP VCSH AT KRIC (INCLUDING AREAS ALONG AND W OF INTERSTATE 95).
OVERALL SHEAR REMAINS VERY WEAK...THEREFORE THE MAIN THREAT WITH
AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSING QUICK REDUCTIONS
TO CIGS (MVFR) AND VSBYS (IFR). A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY PUSH
INTO AND ACRS THE MID ATLC REGION THU THRU FRI AFTN. THIS FRONT
WILL PROVIDE SCTD TSTM CHCS AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU THU NGT. WEAK SFC HI
PRES IS CENTERED OFF THE CST WITH WEAK SFC TROFFING INLAND ACRS
THE PIEDMONT AND CSTL PLAIN. S/SW WINDS 5-10 KT WERE OCCURRING
EARLY THIS MORNG. MODELS STILL INDICATE THAT WINDS MAY BE A
LITTLE STRONGER LATE THIS AFTN/TNGT...AS SFC/LEE TROF OVER VA
DEEPENS SLIGHTLY AND HELPS S/SE WINDS AVG NEAR 15 KT IN THE CHES
BAY. COULD BE A FEW HRS WORTH OF 20 KT GUSTS IN THE BAY...BUT TOO
MARGINAL TO CONSIDER ANY SCA HEADLINES FOR NOW. WAVES GENERALLY
1-2 FT IN THE BAY...BUT WILL PROBABLY BLD TO 2-3 FT THIS EVENG.
SEAS 2-3 FT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WTRS LATE THU...THEN STALLS
SSE OF THE AREA BY LATE FRI. S/SE WINDS AVG 10-15 KT...TURNING
SSW THU NGT. NOT A STRONG COOL SURGE ON FRI...AS WINDS SHIFT TO
THE NNE FRI MORNG INTO FRI AFTN...THEN TURN TO THE ESE BY LATE IN
THE DAY. WINDS THEN TURN BACK TO THE SSW FOR FRI NGT AND SAT...AS
THE FRONT DISSIPATES SSE OF THE REGION. WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM
NEAR TERM...ALB/JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG



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