Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 010143
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
943 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The remnants of Bonnie will continue to drift slowly northeast
just off the Carolina coast through Thursday. A cold front will
approach the region from the west Friday and then stall nearby
this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Latest sfc analysis shows the remnant low of Bonnie centered south
of Wilmington, NC with a trough of low pressure sitting just
offshore. The only lingering showers late this evening are nearest
the coastal trough and latest hi-res model depictions keep the
best chance of showers overnight to our south. Therefore, will cap
pops around 20% across northeast NC...and keep dry conditions
elsewhere. Partly to mostly cloudy overnight with patchy fog
possible early Wed morning. Lows in the mid/upr 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short term period will remain somewhat unsettled with frequent
chances for rain. Forecast is complicated by the weak remnant lo
of Post-Tropical Storm Bonnie sliding NE up the coast thru
Thursday, with the Mid Atlc in a continued moist airmass despite
meager lift. For now, best chances of rain will primarily be over
srn areas. Chances for rain each period thru Thu will be in the
slight chance-chance range. For Fri, a cold frnt approaches from
the West, moving into the Mid Atlc by late aftn/eveng. Pops
remain in the chance range east and likely range west, with
thunder psbl as well. Temps will be near normal thru the period,
with highs avgg in the upr 70s to mid 80s and lows ranging thru
the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Cdfnt stalls invof Carolinas Fri night...w/ shras/psbl tstms
becoming confined to far srn/SE va and NE NC. The fnt moves back N
Sat-Sun as deep trough dives SE through the Great Lakes/Oh
Vly...bringing additional chcs for shras/tstms. On Mon...the next
cdfnt crosses the rgn (w/ psbl linger chcs for shras/tstms...though
will be trending POPs down fm W-E into Mon eve). Drying dp lyrd W
flo xpcd Mon ngt-Tue.

Highs Sat/Sun fm the m70s-arnd 80F at the cst to the l-m80s inland
Sat/Sun...then the l-m80s Mon and Tue. Lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conds across the region at 00Z with a few scattered low
clouds and some high clouds. Predominate light NE-E wind across
the region. With few clouds tonight, expect some fog to set in
especially late tonight and early morning. Am not confident about
how widespread or dense the fog will be so generally opted for 2-3
miles except at SBY where IFR cigs/vis are possible due to late
day rain.

Bands of showers still occuring over coastal NC from remnants of
tropical low. Some stratus could make it farther north to ECG or
SE Va but don`t have much confidence in that. Another warm day
with fog burning off early on Wed and a chance for scattered
afternoon convection.

Outlook...sct convection with a cold front is expected to cross
the area from nw to se Fri aftn/evening. The front stalls along
the Carolinas Sat and another round of showers will be possible
across coastal sections.

&&

.MARINE...
No headlines necessary attm. Remnant lo pres was located S of ILM
this aftn...and this sys will cont to be slo in tracking NE to off
the VA cst-Delmarva by Thu into Fri. A cdfnt approaches the wtrs
fm the NW Fri...pushing E and S of the wtrs Fri ngt...then
stalling ovr the Carolinas on Sat. That fnt pulls back N ovr the
wtrs lt Sat into Sun...then is followed by a cdfnt crossing the
wtrs fm the W lt Mon.

Persistent...mnly ENE wnds contg through Thu...becoming NNW w/
approach of/crossing of cdfnt lt Fri-Fri ngt. Another pd of (lgt)
onshore wnds xpcd this wknd...before becoming WSW Mon. Speeds
rmng aob 15 kt (into the wknd)...seas largely 3-4 ft...though may
build to 4-5 ft at times Wed into Thu eve (mnly S of Cape Charles)
as remnant lo pres tracks just off the mdatlc cst this timeframe.
Waves 1-2 ft with up to 3 ft possible at times in the mouth of
Ches Bay due to the onshore swell.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The monthly rainfall total at Richmond will remain at 9.79" making
May 2016 the wettest May on record.

    Top 5 wettest months of May at Richmond...

1. 9.79" 2016 (Through 5/31)
2. 9.13" 1889
3. 8.98" 1873
4. 8.87" 1972
5. 8.67" 1886

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...ALB
AVIATION...MPR/JEF
MARINE...ALB/BMD
CLIMATE...AKQ


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