Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 060834
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
434 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT FINALLY
MOVES NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE WIDELY SCATTERED. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REMNANT FNTL BNDRY RMNS INVOF SRN VA ATTM. THIS BNDRY SLOLY LIFTS
N THROUGH THE DAY AS WK LO PRES SFC-ALOFT MOVES NE FM WV.
SHRAS/ISOLD TSTMS LINGER OVR PORTIONS OF ERN VA/LWR MD ERN SHORE
ATTM...AND WILL BE CONTG TO THE NE THE NEXT FEW HRS. XPCG A BREAK
IN THE PCPN INTO THE MIDDAY HRS. TROUGH SFC-ALOFT WILL BE CROSSING
THE FA BY LT THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE PTNTLLY LEADING ADDITIONAL (SCT)
SHRAS/TSTMS. LCLLY HVY RA AND GUSTY WNDS (SUB-SVR) PSBL IN ANY
STMS. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO. VRB CLDS-PCLDY
TDA...W/ HI TEMPS FM THE L/M80S NW TO THE U80S/ARND 90F SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HANGING ONTO 30-40% POPS OVR MUCH OF THE FA UNTIL ABT MDNGT TNGT
BEFORE LWRG THEREAFTER. THE PATTERN FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER
BEGINNING TUE...AS THE UPPER LO WEAKENS WHILE TRACKING INTO NEW
ENG AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT DEVLOPS ALONG THE MID ATLC CST. W/ A
SW FLOW AT THE SFC...AND RISING 850 MB TEMPS...EXPECT TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME HEAT WITH HI TEMPS INTO THE L90S MOST AREAS (FOR NOW
STAYED A TAD BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS DUE TO MOIST ANTECEDENT
CONDS). HI TEMPS AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE IN THE 80S. WILL
HAVE JUST A 20% POP CONFINED TO THE MID/LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING
PERIOD MOST PLACES. WARM/HUMID TUE NIGHT WITH LOWS IN L/M/70S.
WED XPCD TO BE RAIN-FREE INTO THE AFTN...BEFORE A CDFNT FM THE NW
DRIFTS CLOSER...COMBINING W/ HEATING COULD PSBLY RESULT IN ISOLD
STMS LT IN THE DAY JUST ABT ANYWAY IN FA. HI TEMPS AWAY FM THE
IMMEDIATE CST 90-95F (U80S AT THE BEACHES).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN TO PREVAIL FOR THE END OF THE COMING WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SERN U.S.
AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
ISOLD OR WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH WOULD PROMOTE A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE OF TSTMS. LOWS
THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR
80S TO MID 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FRNTL BNDRY LAYING ACRS SRN VA EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL LIFT N
ACRS THE REGION DURING TODAY...EVENTUALLY MOVING N OF THE ENTIRE
AREA TNGT. SCTD SHOWERS AND ISLTD TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
RIC/SBY/ORF/PHF DURING THE MORNG HRS. MORE SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS
COULD AFFECT THE REGION LATER THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG...ESPLY
RIC AND SBY. THEN...A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED FOR
TUE INTO WED. JUST ISLTD LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU TUE NGT. A FRNTL BNDRY
LAYING ACRS SRN VA EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL LIFT N ACRS THE WTRS
DURING TODAY...EVENTUALLY MOVNG N OF THE ENTIRE WTRS TNGT. SE
WINDS AOB 10 KT WILL BECOME S OVR ALL THE WTRS BY EARLY
TNGT...THEN SSW 10 TO 15 KT BY EARLY TUE MORNG. SSW WINDS 10 TO 15
KT WILL CONTINUE TUE THRU WED...IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
THAT FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WED NGT INTO THU MORNG...WITH
ANOTHER FRONT MOVING THRU THU NGT INTO FRI MORNG. WINDS/WAVES/SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG


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