Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 282031
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
331 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE HIGH BECOMES
CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS NORTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS POISED TO STREAM OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AS
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD AND A DECENT INVERSION AROUND 900MB WILL
KEEP COOLER TEMPS TRAPPED BENEATH IT. LOWS WILL DIP BELOW FREEZING
ONCE AGAIN WITH READINGS IN THE MID 20S INLAND TO THE UPPER 20S AT
THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SWINGS INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST (PACNW)TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN TRACKS ACROSS
THE NRN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...A POLAR LOW SWINGS DOWN INTO
SCNTRL CANADA (MANITOBA/WRN ONTARIO) AND MERGES WITH THE PACNW
UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
ELSEWHERE...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SE STATES AND
FLORIDA ON SUNDAY AND SLIDES OFF THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT/MONDAY.
THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY AMPLIFY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE NRN LOW
TRACKS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION...
CAUSING UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME SWLY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES DURING THIS TIME.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY...KEEPING THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA
WITHIN A TRANSITION ZONE BTWN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE OVERALL FORECAST WILL BE DRY SATURDAY
THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY...WITH MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SATURDAY
GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS BELOW
NORMAL SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
IN THE MID-UPPER 30S (AROUND 40 DEGREES IMMEDIATE COAST)...AND
SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID-UPPER 40S.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTN INTO
MONDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT THE PRECIPITATION MAY BE
ANAFRONTAL WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY.
THEREFORE...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM NW TO SE DURING THE
AFTN AND HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRNT SLIDES FARTHER SE OF THE AREA MON NGT...WITH THE CHANCE
OF POST-FRNTAL PRECIP CONTINUING THRU THE NIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHES FM THE W. COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIP OVR
THE NRN PIEDMONT BUT WILL FINE TUNE AS WE GET CLOSER...FOR NOW
MAINLY EXPECTING PLAIN RAIN WITH THIS EVENT AND TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING. THE CHANCE OF RAIN LINGERS INTO TUE WITH STILL SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT AND DECENT WAA. WITH STRONG HI PRES
STRADDLING DOWN THE ERN SEABOARD...TEMPS WILL BE WELL BLO NORMAL...
WITH HIGHS RANGING FM THE LO 40S NW TO LO 50S. WILL MAINTAIN
20-30% POPS (NEAR CLIMO) FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
WITH CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT OVR THE MID ATLANTIC. TEMPS
WILL BE WARMER THAN TUE FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS
WED THRU FRI GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S AND LO TEMPS IN
THE UPR 30S TO UPR 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SLIDE EAST OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT AND THEN OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. GUSTY
N/NW WINDS AT MIDDAY WILL DIMINISH BY 20 OR 21Z AND BECOME CALM OR
LGT AND VRBL TONIGHT. A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY BEGINS THE FORECAST. A WARM
ADVECTION MID CLOUD DECK WILL AFFECT SKY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...
ESPECIALLY AT RIC AND SBY. WINDS TURN TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY WITH SCT
HIGH CLOUDS ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THERE WILL BE A SLGT TO LOW CHC FOR RAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HI PRES CENTERED OVR THE SE STATES THIS AFTN/EVENG WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE TNGT. THE SCA OVR THE RIVERS/BAY/SOUND HAS ENDED AS WINDS
HAVE DECREASED QUITE FAST THIS AFTN. WILL RETAIN THE SCA FOR 5 FT
SEAS OVR SRN CSTL WTRS THRU 7 PM WHERE SEAS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
DIMINISH COMPARED TO WINDS. EXPECT SUB-SCA CONDS ON SAT WITH SLY
FLOW DEVELOPING AS THE HI POSITIONS OFFSHORE. COULD GET SOME GUSTS
CLOSE TO SCA OVR THE NRN BAY BUT EXPECTING MAINLY 15 KT WINDS
THERE SAT. SIMILAR CONDS INTO SUN...WITH FLOW BCMG SWLY AND SEAS
OVR NRN WTRS APPRCHG 4-5 FT. THE NEXT COLD FRNT TO CROSS THE
REGION ARRIVES MON NGT...WITH SCA CONDS PSBL IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRNT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ656-
     658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAS








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