Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 300346
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1146 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 941 PM EDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Subtle lower level circulation now resides over the lower lakes
region, roughly over Chicago/northern Indiana region per satellite
imagery and surface obs. Persistent deformation axis sits across
central/southern lower Michigan where spotty showers persisted
through much of the day. More meaningful instability and convection
is across the lower lakes region into the Ohio Valley where slow
moving storms brought copious rainfall to some areas (Chicago for
example).

Up this way, still getting skirted by some thicker mid and high
cloud across the southern counties. Remaining small batch of
afternoon CU is slowly drifting through the TVC/CAD/Kalkaska area
with a few blips on radar along a small scale convergence
axis/radar fine line pushing through that area. But otherwise,
quiet weather is the rule.

Rest of tonight, lower level circulation forecast to stay put
across the Chicago/northern Indiana region with persistent
deformation/weak forcing hanging across southern lower Michigan.
Expect shower activity to largely remain south of this CWA
tonight. That said, recent HRRR runs want to bubble up another
batch of showers through the Manistee/Wexford counties area in
the next few hours. SPC mesoanalysis does show a thin tongue of
instability down through that region which raises eyebrows
considering the slow moving/heavy rainers we saw last night
through that area. But not sure if I buy it just yet. Will keep a
watch for any substantial shower development down that way over
the next few hours.

Otherwise, quiet everywhere else with clearer skies/cooler temps
to the north, a bit more clouds and warmer temps to the south.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening and overnight)
Issued at 301 PM EDT Fri Jul 29 2016

High impact weather: None

Main concerns: Decoupling of wind tonight/low temperatures and rain
chances south.

Broad upper-level trough and surface high pressure will continue to
dominate northern Michigan`s weather through the remaining evening
and overnight hours. Diurnal cumulus will diminish after sunset,
while the stratocumulus and altocumulus associated with the deeper
moisture at the base of said upper-level trough will persist,
although rain chances are looking rather minuscule as low-level
moisture and synoptic support is farther south. The pressure gradient
over northern Michigan should slack enough to allow decoupling of
the winds after sunset, allowing radiational cooling to drop
temperatures into the low 50s and possibly even some upper 40s over
eastern upper and northeastern lower, especially the interior
portions away from the Great Lakes. If the winds do not decouple as
forecast, the overnight lows will of course need to be raised a good
5 degrees...at least.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Monday)
Issued at 301 PM EDT Fri Jul 29 2016

IMPACTS: Minimal

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EXPECTED EVOLUTION: (Saturday through Monday)
Saturday morning, generally zonal flow setup over the CONUS with
subtle height rises evident out west and height falls to the east
digging into the Tennessee Valley. A pair of cut off lows currently
visible on water vapor imagery will begin to move inland Saturday
morning as well, with the eastern most feature just getting over
British Columbia. Height rises will build eastward through the
period, amplified ahead of the cutoff lows moving through Canada.
The leading edge of the height rises should get to Michigan Monday,
continuing to build through mid-week. At the surface, we will remain
on the southern side of high pressure setup over Canada, which will
begin to shift to the east as the height rises build in Monday.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: Northern extent of deeper
moisture, influencing clouds and rain chances.

ASSOCIATED WEATHER: Fairly quiet weekend for most.

Saturday...With some deeper moisture lingering around the southern
portion of the CWA, skies will be cloudy south of M-72 with some
isolated light rain not out of the question. Sunshine will be more
prevalent as you go north of M-72, as high pressure over Canada
helps to keep the moisture south. Temperatures will be near seasonal
values.

Sunday...With generally light easterly flow, expect lake breeze
development off Lake Michigan during the afternoon Sunday. The
question is going to be if there will be enough moisture available
to support any shower development along the lake breeze. Current
thinking is that the moisture availability will be a bit lacking. If
there is an uptick in moisture availability; however, some showers
could get going. Will continue to hold off adding pops for now, and
re-evaluate tomorrow. Temperatures will warm a bit as the ridge
starts to build in from the west, but will remain within a few
degrees of normal.

Monday...Height rises continue to work into the region, leading to
plenty of sunshine. Temperatures will be a few degrees above normal,
but this will be the start of a warming trend through at least mid-
week as the height rises continue to build ahead of the cutoff lows
moving through Canada.

ALM

Extended (Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 300 PM EST FRI Jul 29 2016

Still anticipating the beginning of the week to start off dry as a
high pressure to the east in Ontario will create a dry NE flow. Rain
chances will increase later in the week towards Thursday into Friday
as a cold front pushes into the Great Lakes. Temperatures look to
break into the upper 80s and near 90 for Wednesday and Thursday with
humidity increasing as well. The models have come to an agreement
that the passing of the cold front will be Friday afternoon rather
than Thursday that was shown in earlier model runs. This keeps the
highs warmer later into the week.

MG

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1146 PM EDT Fri Jul 29 2016

...VFR conditions continue...

High pressure and wedge of dry air across northern Michigan will
maintain VFR conditions at the terminal sites through Saturday
evening. Meanwhile, a weak but stubborn area of low pressure in
the lower lakes region will be slowly migrating eastward over the
next few days. This feature may ultimately push some lower cloud
cover back up into northern lower Michigan later Saturday and
Saturday night and possibly some showers into northeast lower
Michigan. However, at this juncture, VFR conditions are expected
to hold through at least Saturday evening.

Winds will go light/calm tonight and increase from the east to up
to 10 knots on Saturday, before weakening again Saturday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 301 PM EDT Fri Jul 29 2016

A rather benign weather pattern for mariners will continue for the
next several days as winds will subside throughout the evening and
then persist throughout the period. There will be an extended period
of waves a foot or less, pretty much Saturday through at least
Wednesday. The best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be
next Thursday ahead of a developing low pressure system, although a
stray shower here or there is not out of the question tomorrow
through Sunday south of Presque Isle as a trough of upper-level
pressure continues it`s push south and eastward.


&&

.APX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Adam
SHORT TERM...TJL
LONG TERM...Gillen/Mayhew
AVIATION...Adam
MARINE...TJL



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