Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 271128

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
628 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Current GOES IR imagery showing the region engulfed in widespread
stratus in the wake of low pressure over northern Indiana. GOES
cloud thickness product indicating this stratus varying from 800-
1200ft thick, so not expecting any clearing overnight as a ridge of
high pressure builds overhead by daybreak. In fact, this stratus
looks to be be pretty stubborn today with perhaps some breaks west
of the Mississippi. With anticipated cloud cover, temperatures will
suffer some with highs ranging from the middle and upper 40s along
and northeast of I-94 to the lower/middle 50s elsewhere.

Southerly winds pick up through the night tonight as low pressure
moves into the Dakotas. NAM bufkit along with majority of hi-res
models showing the potential for more stratus/fog across the area
tonight as fetch of moisture moves north out of the Southern
Plans/Gulf in this southerly flow. Have partly to mostly cloudy
going across the area, along with patchy fog mention west of the
Mississippi River. Hopefully fog doesnt get too out of hand given
the very moist ground/lower boundary layer...something to keep an
eye on. Overnight lows look to be near 40 across central the
middle 40s west of the Mississippi River.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Friday could potentially be a bit tricky given potential for stratus
in moist southerly flow. Better potential for boundary layer
mixing/sunshine will be across northeast IA/far southwest WI. Rest
of the area looks to be in the stratus. This will have a definite
impact on temperatures. Right now...going for lower 60s across
central WI to the the upper 60s across northeast IA/far southwest
WI but this may be a bit optimistic if more stratus materializes.
Also of note will be gusty south winds in the 15-25 mph range with
gust around 35 mph across the bluff tops along the Mississippi River
and the more open areas of northeast IA/southeast MN.

A cold front oozes slowly southward across the area Friday night
into Saturday setting up a zone of baroclinicity. Meanwhile...the
NAM/GFS/ECMWF all show a weak mid-level trough working on this
baroclinic zone Saturday into Saturday night for a chance of
showers. Otherwise, looks mostly cloudy through Saturday night with
highs Saturday ranging from the lower/middle 50s across northern WI
to the lower/middle 60s across northeast IA/far southwest WI.

High pressure moves in Sunday for a pleasant autumn day. Look for
highs right around normal in the 50s.

Rain chances return Monday/Monday night as a rather strong low
pressure system moves east out of the Dakotas and across Lake
Superior. This system has the potential to pull some unseasonably
warm air northward into the region Monday. Right now...looking at
highs Monday ranging from the upper 50s across northern WI to the
middle/upper 60s across the rest of the area.

After what looks to be a quiet Tuesday under high pressure, look for
rain chances again Wednesday as a weak Mid-level trough ripples
northeast out of the Central Plains toward the region.
Otherwise...temperatures look to be a few degrees above normal with
highs well into the 50s.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 628 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Low confidence forecast for this TAF period due to uncertainty in
the evolution of low stratus and the potential for fog later
tonight. Will continue a persistence forecast of IFR/low MFVR
ceilings at KRST/KLSE respectively through the morning with only a
gradual improvement at KRST after 27.19Z. While some guidance
suggests clearing this evening and overnight, other data sets show
a continuation of low stratus with the addition of fog/visibility
reductions, especially west of the MS River. Given differences,
maintained forecast continuity from 27.06Z TAFs with the knowledge
that significant adjustments may be needed later today. Light and
variable wind for much of the day will eventually increase and
shift to the south later this evening and overnight.


Issued at 343 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Minor flooding continues along the Cedar River in southeast
MN/northeast IA, as well as along the Turtle Creek near Austin MN.
Minor flooding is also forecasted for the Trempealeau River in west-
central WI. See the latest Flood Statements for the specific river
forecasts. Other rivers...streams and creeks also have rises but
will remain below flood stage.




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