Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 270910
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
310 AM MDT TUE SEP 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Moist air will continue to flow into southern New Mexico and west
ahead of a low pressure system to the west. This weather pattern
will generate a few showers and thunderstorms across the
Borderland this week...especially Thursday through Friday.
Westerly winds will produce warm drier weather next Sunday and
Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Easterly winds at low levels continue to transport cool somewhat
moist air into southern New Mexico this morning while upper low
continues to spin over central Baja. Today through Wednesday the
upper low will drift slowly north and phases with a longer wave
trough approaching the west coast. To the east a ridge aloft will
build along the southern high plains extending into eastern New
Mexico.

The trough to the west and ridge just to the east will induce a
deep south to southeast wind with advection of both warmer air
and moisture from the south. Thus expect afternoon high
temperatures to rise to near normal by Wednesday. The water vapor
inflow will also forces surface dewpoints back above 50 F and
precipitable water over an inch most areas by Wednesday afternoon
causing air mass to slowly destabilize. Initially the proximity to
the ridge will inhibit the convective potential...especially over
the eastern half of the cwa where warmer air aloft will exist.
However Thursday and Friday upper level short waves/impulses will
move across the cwa resulting in stronger and more widespread
convection. 30 to 40 kt 6 km level winds from the west southwest
will also provide favorable vertical wind shear for updraft
enhancement on Friday. Thus a few of the storms may become severe.

Saturday through Monday flow aloft becomes increasingly zonal with
the deepening westerly wind component advecting warm drier air.
Thus by Sunday expect no threat of rain anywhere in the cwa.

&&

.AVIATION...valid 27/12z-28/12z.
Widespread areas of ceilings between 4000 and 8000 feet agl with
a few areas of mvfr or ifr ceilings and visibility from rain and
fog. Surface wind speeds generally from 10 to 20 kt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Moist air will continue to flow into southern New Mexico and west
ahead of a low pressure system to the west. This weather pattern
will generate a few showers and thunderstorms across the
Borderland this week...especially Thursday through Friday.
Westerly winds will produce warm drier weather next Sunday and
Monday. Temperatures around 10 degrees below normal today rising
to near normal Wednesday afternoon. Surface winds around 10 to 20
mph today and Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 74  58  84  65 /  20   0  20  20
Sierra Blanca           68  53  81  60 /  20   0  10  10
Las Cruces              74  53  82  61 /  20   0  20  20
Alamogordo              77  54  83  59 /  20   0  20  20
Cloudcroft              57  40  67  44 /  20   0  20  20
Truth or Consequences   74  51  80  60 /  20   0  20  20
Silver City             70  51  76  57 /  30  20  40  40
Deming                  74  51  81  60 /  20  10  20  30
Lordsburg               72  52  81  59 /  30  20  30  30
West El Paso Metro      74  57  83  65 /  20   0  20  20
Dell City               71  52  84  59 /  10   0  10  10
Fort Hancock            74  58  84  63 /  20   0  20  20
Loma Linda              67  53  81  61 /  20   0  20  20
Fabens                  74  56  84  62 /  20   0  20  20
Santa Teresa            74  54  83  63 /  20   0  20  20
White Sands HQ          75  55  82  61 /  20   0  20  20
Jornada Range           76  51  83  57 /  20   0  20  20
Hatch                   74  54  82  60 /  20   0  20  20
Columbus                74  54  82  62 /  20  10  20  30
Orogrande               75  56  84  62 /  20   0  20  20
Mayhill                 62  43  74  48 /  20   0  20  20
Mescalero               66  42  76  48 /  20   0  20  20
Timberon                63  42  74  48 /  20   0  20  20
Winston                 69  44  78  49 /  30  10  30  40
Hillsboro               72  50  80  55 /  20  10  30  30
Spaceport               75  52  81  59 /  20   0  20  20
Lake Roberts            71  47  78  51 /  40  20  40  40
Hurley                  71  50  78  56 /  30  10  40  30
Cliff                   72  48  81  50 /  40  20  40  40
Mule Creek              72  46  79  47 /  40  20  40  40
Faywood                 72  50  79  56 /  30  10  30  30
Animas                  74  50  82  57 /  30  20  30  30
Hachita                 73  50  81  57 /  30  10  30  30
Antelope Wells          72  51  81  58 /  30  10  30  30
Cloverdale              68  50  79  58 /  30  20  40  30

&&

.EPZ Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

05 Rogash


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