Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 011008
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
408 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING SEASONABLY HOT WEATHER TO SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER SOMEWHAT MOIST
UNSTABLE AIR WILL ALSO FLOW INTO THE REGION SO THERE WILL BE
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...MAINLY AROUND THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE HAS CONTINUED TO EXPAND TO THE WEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES WITH CIRCULATION CENTER ALOFT BECOMING
ESTABLISHED OVER NEW MEXICO BY THIS EVENING. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE
AND WARMING ALOFT WILL SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AND WILL TEND TO INHIBIT CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. HOWEVER A TYPICAL SUMMER MONSOON WILL EXIST AT THE
SURFACE WITH THE DESERT HEAT LOW OVER WESTERN ARIZONA AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THUS A LOW LEVEL EASTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. THE COMBINATION OF HEAT AND MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT AT
LEAST A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH THIS WEEKEND. SO EXPECT SURFACE HEATING AND
UPSLOPE WILL INDUCE MAINLY ISOLATED LOWLAND CONVECTION WITH
SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS WITH SUBSEQUENT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES INITIATING FURTHER STORM DEVELOPMENT.

EAST TO WEST ORIENTED RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ACROSS NEW MEXICO
MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
UPPER HIGH CENTER SHIFTING EAST LATER PERIODS. THUS FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPS MORE OF AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION WITH SLIGHTLY
DEEPER MOISTURE INFLOW. MODELS ALSO HIT AT WEAK EMBEDDED WAVES
POSSIBLY ENTERING THE CWA. THESE CHANGES EXPECTED TO CAUSE SLIGHT
INCREASES IN STORM COVERAGE LATER NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE STILL
MOSTLY ISOLATED EACH DAY EXCEPT FOR MOUNTAIN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 01/12-02/12Z.
ISOLATED AREAS OF MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY BETWEEN 20Z AND 06Z. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS MOST AREAS WITH 050-100 SCT-BKN CLOUDS. WINDS MAY GUST
TO 50 MPH NEAR STORMS...OTHERWISE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE MOSTLY LESS
THAN 15 KT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING SEASONABLY HOT WEATHER TO SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER SOMEWHAT MOIST
UNSTABLE AIR WILL ALSO FLOW INTO THE REGION SO THERE WILL BE
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...MAINLY AROUND THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS. ISOLATED STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. TEMPERATURES REMAINING AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 97  75  98  76 /   0  10   0  10
SIERRA BLANCA           95  69  96  72 /  10  20  10  10
LAS CRUCES              96  69  96  69 /   0  10   0  10
ALAMOGORDO              96  68  97  69 /  20  10  20  10
CLOUDCROFT              73  52  74  55 /  60  20  30  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   94  69  94  69 /  20  20  20  20
SILVER CITY             87  63  88  63 /  30  20  30  20
DEMING                  95  69  96  70 /   0  20  10  20
LORDSBURG               95  68  95  68 /  20  20  20  20
WEST EL PASO METRO      97  72  98  74 /   0  10   0  10
DELL CITY               96  71  98  72 /   0  10  10  10
FORT HANCOCK            97  73  99  73 /  20  20  10  10
LOMA LINDA              94  68  95  71 /   0  10   0  10
FABENS                  97  71  99  73 /   0  10   0  10
SANTA TERESA            96  70  97  72 /   0  10   0  10
WHITE SANDS HQ          96  70  97  71 /   0  10   0  10
JORNADA RANGE           96  67  96  68 /   0  10   0  10
HATCH                   96  67  97  68 /   0  20  10  10
COLUMBUS                96  69  96  71 /   0  20  10  20
OROGRANDE               96  70  97  72 /   0  10   0  10
MAYHILL                 82  59  83  59 /  50  20  30  20
MESCALERO               83  56  84  58 /  50  20  30  20
TIMBERON                82  58  83  60 /  40  20  30  20
WINSTON                 85  59  84  60 /  40  20  40  30
HILLSBORO               94  65  94  65 /  30  20  30  20
SPACEPORT               95  67  95  69 /  10  20  10  10
LAKE ROBERTS            86  58  87  58 /  50  30  40  30
HURLEY                  90  64  91  64 /  20  20  30  20
CLIFF                   92  65  93  64 /  30  30  30  20
MULE CREEK              92  60  93  61 /  30  30  30  30
FAYWOOD                 92  64  92  65 /  30  20  40  20
ANIMAS                  95  67  94  68 /  20  20  20  20
HACHITA                 96  67  94  69 /  10  20  20  20
ANTELOPE WELLS          93  66  92  66 /  30  20  20  30
CLOVERDALE              91  64  90  65 /  40  20  20  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH


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