Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 181115
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
415 AM MST Thu Jan 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Warmer temperatures will return to the region today with a
westerly flow starting to occur. Above normal temperatures are
expected Friday and Saturday. A storm system will move through the
area Saturday afternoon and evening with a chance of lowland rain
and mountain showers possible. Strong winds may occur with the
approach of this system Saturday afternoon. Cool and dry
conditions will return Sunday and persist for much of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Expect warmer temperatures today with high pressure ridging aloft,
clear skies and the beginnings of a southwesterly surface flow
that will allow a warmer air mass into the region. Most lowland
areas should middle to upper 50s. The warming trend will continue
on Friday as southwest flow strengthens a bit. Afternoon high
temperatures should a few degrees above normal with mostly middle
60s across the lowlands.

Weather conditions will change on Saturday as a fast moving
Pacific low pressure system moves inland and through the region
Saturday night. Warmer above normal temperatures will occur in the
warm advection flow just ahead of the storm Saturday afternoon.
Wind speeds will also significantly increase on Saturday as
stronger winds aloft mix down to the surface and combine with
strengthening surface flow for speeds in the 25 to 35 mph range by
the afternoon. Some areas may see patches of blowing dust near
disturbed soil areas.

Southwest flow ahead of the system will also transport some
moisture into the area ahead of the main trough for a chance of
precipitation. Precipitation will start out west over portions of
Southwest New Mexico by the mid to late afternoon and spread east
across the area in the evening hours. Warm temperatures ahead of
the associated pacific front will result in rain showers for all
but the highest mountain peaks Saturday afternoon. As freezing
levels drop behind the front, snow levels will drop to 5000 feet
by early Sunday morning just as the precipitation is ending. Snow
amounts for elevations above 6000 feet will be mostly in the 1 to
3 inch range with amounts less than an inch possible for some
lowland areas along the divide and further north. All showers
should be done by 6 am Sunday morning as the storm system quickly
exits the region to the east.

Sunday will see dry and cool conditions with brisk west to
northwest winds of 15 o 30 mph. Winds will diminish Sunday night
with lighter winds expected through the first part of next week.
The overall flow pattern will be stable with a west to northwest
flow. Temperatures will be 4 to 7 degrees below normal and
generally in the lower to middle 50s the first part of next week.
Long term outlooks keep the local area dry through the end of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 18/12Z-19/12Z...
VFR conditions are expected at all TAF sites. Skies will be
generally clear. Winds light and variable winds will shift to the
west at 5 to 10 knots aft 20z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Warmer temperatures will occur today as a westerly flow begins to
take hold. The next storm system is forecast to arrive late
Saturday. Temperatures will be even warmer on Friday as the
southwest to west flow strengthens. Saturday should become windy
with west and southwest winds in the 25 to 35 mph range in the
afternoon and early evening. This system which will give our
region a better chance at mountain snow and lowland rain Saturday
and Saturday night. The storm passes quickly with a Pacific front
moving in to cool he region back to near normal on Sunday and
beyond.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 54  28  63  36 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           53  27  63  35 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              54  25  63  33 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              54  24  60  33 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              44  25  51  30 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   56  27  63  33 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             54  29  61  34 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  56  24  65  31 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               56  25  65  32 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      53  30  62  39 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               54  22  63  29 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            57  27  67  35 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              50  28  58  37 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  55  26  64  34 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            53  26  62  34 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          54  27  62  36 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           54  22  62  30 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   56  23  65  31 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                55  26  65  34 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               53  26  61  34 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 52  28  61  35 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               50  25  57  31 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                47  25  54  31 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 55  22  61  28 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               57  25  64  32 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               55  24  62  30 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            55  21  60  25 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  54  24  62  31 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   59  22  64  27 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              57  27  62  33 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 56  27  64  33 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  58  25  67  34 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 56  24  66  32 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          57  26  68  34 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              57  31  64  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

04 Lundeen


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