Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 202112
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
312 PM MDT Sun Aug 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Abundant moisture and an unstable atmosphere will keep the
potential for heavy rain and flash flooding going through the
night for areas of southern New Mexico and far west Texas mainly
from the Rio Grande Valley and eastward. Thunderstorms may be able
to quickly produce 1 to 2 inches of rain in less than an hour with
excessive runoff likely. Chances for widespread heavy rain will
diminish on Monday and much of next week as deeper moisture shifts
to the east. However, there will still be enough moisture to
produce scattered showers and thunderstorms each day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Southern New Mexico and far west Texas remain under a deep plume
of monsoonal moisture this afternoon. This moisture has fueled
widespread rain showers and heavy rain producing thunderstorms
since yesterday afternoon. An small upper level system near west
central New Mexico has aided the development of the showers and
storms across the area.

The potential for heavy rainfall and flash flooding will continue
tonight with the focus of the rain shifting more to the east,
extending from the Rio Grande Valley eastward. Hudspeth and
eastern portions Otero counties will be the main focus area
tonight with 1 to 3 inches of rainfall possible over a wide area.
Other areas may also see isolated areas of heavy rain that may
produce excessive runoff due to saturated soil conditions from
previous rain. A flash flood watch will remain in effect until 6
AM Monday morning for areas of the Rio Grande Valley eastward to
Otero and Hudspeth counties.

On Monday the upper level low will lift out of the area to the
northeast. The deeper plume of moisture will also shift more to
the east and diminish somewhat in intensity. This should lower the
risk of the widespread heavy rain producing thunderstorms and
showers but enough residual moisture will remain to continue a
mention of scattered showers thunderstorms all day Monday.
Localized heavy rain and minor flooding may occur from stronger
storms that develop in the afternoon and evening. Temperatures
will also rebound back closer to seasonal averages but remain
slightly below normal.

For those of you interested in the eclipse, there will be some
clouds present during the day with thickest clouds existing mainly
from El Paso eastward. Skies will be less cloudy to the west in
Southwestern New Mexico.

On Tuesday high pressure aloft will build over the region that
will remain in place through early Thursday. Considerable moisture
continues will be trapped beneath the high with air mass type
showers and thunderstorms expected to develop with day time
heating in the afternoon and continue into the evening hours both
Tuesday and Wednesday. Rain coverage and storm frequency will be
higher over the mountain zones. Temperatures will be a few degrees
warmer and closer to seasonal averages.

Atmospheric moisture levels will increase on Thursday as the high
aloft breaks down and allows a weak trough into the area that will
help develop numerous mountain and scattered lowland thunderstorms
and showers. Heavy rain potential will increase Thursday and
Friday with the increase in moisture and thunderstorm activity.

The overall flow pattern will change next weekend as a high builds
over the great basin, which results in a northerly flow over the
local area. This pattern will still support thunderstorm
development in the afternoon and nighttime.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 21/00Z-22/00Z...
P6SM FEW-SCT015-025 SCT-BKN050-070 BKN100-120 through 15Z with
scattered 1-3SM TSRA or SHRA west of KELP-KALM line and scattered to
numerous storms east of line.  May have some patchy 1-3SM BR in
valleys and eastern mountain slopes. After 15Z cloud cover expected
to become FEW-SCT040-060 SCT-BKN080-100 with continued scattered
1-3SM TSRA BKN030-040. Winds generally NE to SE and less than 10KTS
except near thunderstorms.


.FIRE WEATHER...
After more showers and thunderstorms through tonight, coverage will
be on the decrease for a few days.  Good low level moisture will
remain in place so isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
will continue to be possible through midweek but building upper high
right over the Borderland will help to suppress development. Low
level moisture will also help to keep relative humidities above 20
percent. As ridge starts to get broken down toward the end of the
week, expect an increase in thunderstorm activity.  Temperatures
will return to near or slightly above normal as well for the early
part of the week. Winds will remain light, but with ridge building,
so will upper level winds and keep vent rates poor to good.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 84  67  89  71 /  60  80  30  20
Sierra Blanca           87  65  87  67 /  60  80  50  20
Las Cruces              81  63  87  67 /  60  70  30  20
Alamogordo              81  63  86  67 /  70  80  40  30
Cloudcroft              63  49  67  52 /  70  90  60  30
Truth or Consequences   82  62  87  66 /  60  60  40  20
Silver City             77  57  82  61 /  60  50  40  40
Deming                  82  62  88  66 /  60  50  30  20
Lordsburg               83  62  88  66 /  60  40  30  20
West El Paso Metro      83  66  89  71 /  70  80  30  20
Dell City               87  66  89  69 /  60  70  40  20
Fort Hancock            87  68  90  71 /  60  80  50  20
Loma Linda              79  62  83  66 /  60  80  40  20
Fabens                  85  67  90  71 /  60  80  30  20
Santa Teresa            83  65  89  69 /  70  80  30  20
White Sands HQ          81  64  87  68 /  70  70  30  30
Jornada Range           81  62  87  66 /  60  60  30  20
Hatch                   83  63  89  66 /  60  60  30  20
Columbus                83  63  88  68 /  60  60  30  20
Orogrande               82  65  87  69 /  60  80  40  30
Mayhill                 71  54  76  57 /  70  90  70  30
Mescalero               70  54  76  56 /  70  90  60  30
Timberon                70  53  74  56 /  70  90  60  30
Winston                 76  53  80  57 /  70  60  40  30
Hillsboro               79  58  85  62 /  60  50  40  30
Spaceport               82  62  87  66 /  60  60  40  30
Lake Roberts            75  52  81  56 /  70  60  30  30
Hurley                  77  57  83  61 /  60  50  40  20
Cliff                   83  57  88  61 /  60  50  40  40
Mule Creek              82  58  85  63 /  60  50  50  30
Faywood                 78  57  84  61 /  70  50  30  30
Animas                  82  61  87  66 /  60  30  30  20
Hachita                 82  61  88  65 /  60  40  30  20
Antelope Wells          81  61  87  65 /  60  40  40  20
Cloverdale              77  60  83  63 /  50  40  30  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for NMZ409>417.

TX...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for TXZ418>424.

&&

$$

04/26 Lundeen/Grzywacz



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.