Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 260842
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
242 AM MDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
East to southeast winds will transport moist unstable air into
southern New Mexico and west Texas through most of next week while
weak upper disturbances move into the region. This weather
pattern will generate showers and thunderstorms across much of
the Borderland under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Locally heavy
rainfalls may occur with a few storms each day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Rather active weather situation will develop and persist for the
current forecast period. At low levels prevailing high pressure
will cover much of the United State east of the Rockies while a
broad area of low pressure will exist west of the divide. This
weather pattern will induce a persistent east to southeast flow
in the lower troposphere across most of the cwa with transport of
moist air from the Gulf of Mexico. Consequently surface dewpoints
will rise into the 50s and even lower 60s and remain around these
levels well into next week. Consistent with this will be
precipitable water values which will gradually increase to around
1 to 1.3 inches by Sunday afternoon. The abundant moisture will
destabilize air mass further with afternoon mucapes around 500 to
1000 J/kg today increasing to around 800 to 1600 J/kg by Sunday
afternoon. Similarly K indices should rise above 40 most areas by
Sunday. Thus potential for deep convection should rise over the
next two days.

Main uncertainty will be lifting mechanisms. For today through
early next week New Mexico and far west Texas will be located
between slow moving upper trough drifting eastward into Arizona
and a ridge of high pressure across the southern planes. Models
hint that this pattern will allow weak poorly defined disturbances
aloft to move into thew cwa from the south and southwest although
locating and timing these features will remain illusive beyond a
few hours. However little convective inhibition will be present so
surface heating and subsequent outflow boundaries from existing
storms may also initiate updrafts each day. Upslope flow will also
be favorable storm development over high terrain. So all these
factors indicate increasing storm coverage for the region.

The vertical wind profile will be favorable for either slow
moving and/or back building cells and moisture will deepen. Thus
heavy rainfall will be primary weather threat. However given the
increasing instability several storms may also drop some hail.

Longer range guidance continues to suggest high pressure aloft
building over the region may reduce convective threat late next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...valid 26/12z-27/12z.
SCT-BKN070-100 with a few areas of mvfr and isolated areas of ifr
ceilings and visibility for showers and thunderstorms mainly
occurring from 20z to 06z. Surface winds generally from 5 to 15
kt with gusts up to 40 kt possible near thunderstorms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
East to southeast winds will transport moist unstable air into
southern New Mexico and west Texas through most of next week while
weak upper disturbances move into the region. This weather
pattern will generate showers and thunderstorms across much of
the Borderland under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Thus the fire
danger will be further reduced. Locally heavy rainfalls may occur
with a few storms each day. Temperatures will be near or a little
below normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 90  68  89  68 /  20  30  40  40
Sierra Blanca           87  65  85  65 /  30  30  40  30
Las Cruces              86  63  87  64 /  30  30  40  40
Alamogordo              89  63  87  63 /  30  30  40  30
Cloudcroft              66  49  67  49 /  50  30  60  50
Truth or Consequences   85  62  85  62 /  30  30  40  30
Silver City             80  57  81  57 /  50  30  50  40
Deming                  88  64  88  64 /  20  30  40  40
Lordsburg               89  64  89  64 /  20  30  30  30
West El Paso Metro      89  69  89  69 /  20  30  40  40
Dell City               88  64  88  65 /  30  30  40  30
Fort Hancock            91  68  89  68 /  30  30  40  40
Loma Linda              82  62  83  63 /  20  30  40  40
Fabens                  90  66  89  67 /  20  30  40  40
Santa Teresa            88  67  88  67 /  20  30  40  40
White Sands HQ          86  65  86  65 /  30  30  50  40
Jornada Range           86  61  86  62 /  30  30  50  40
Hatch                   86  64  86  64 /  30  30  40  40
Columbus                89  65  89  66 /  20  30  40  50
Orogrande               87  64  86  65 /  20  30  40  40
Mayhill                 71  53  73  52 /  50  30  60  50
Mescalero               76  53  76  53 /  50  30  60  40
Timberon                72  51  74  52 /  50  30  60  50
Winston                 78  52  78  52 /  50  30  60  40
Hillsboro               83  58  83  59 /  50  30  50  40
Spaceport               85  62  84  62 /  30  30  40  40
Lake Roberts            81  53  81  52 /  50  30  60  40
Hurley                  82  58  82  58 /  40  30  50  40
Cliff                   88  59  88  59 /  40  30  40  30
Mule Creek              84  55  84  55 /  40  30  30  30
Faywood                 86  58  84  58 /  40  30  50  40
Animas                  89  62  89  62 /  30  30  30  30
Hachita                 90  63  89  63 /  30  30  30  40
Antelope Wells          87  63  86  62 /  30  30  50  50
Cloverdale              80  60  81  60 /  30  30  50  40

&&

.EPZ Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

05 Rogash


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