Area Forecast Discussion
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177
FXUS64 KEPZ 092133
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
233 PM MST Fri Dec 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Deep westerly flow will bring a period of dry and warming weather
conditions to the Borderland. Each afternoon should be a bit
warmer than the previous afternoon, through next Wednesday, as
the airmass across the region modifies with increasingly drier
air. Skies will deliver more sunshine, but periods of high clouds
will mix in. Temperatures dip again next Thursday, through the
end of the week, as another dry cold front pushes in from the
plains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Still working hard to erode all of the low-level clouds east of
the Franklins and across Far West Texas as winds continue light
from the SE and hold the cooler and more moist air over the area.
Those clouds won`t return tomorrow. To our west a flattening
ridge aloft will allow high clouds to move back in over the area
in the deep W/NW flow aloft. Surface winds will flip back to
westerly for Saturday and begin a sharp day to day warmup across
the forecast area. This warming period will persist through next
Wednesday as winds continue westerly and the storm track remains
well north of the SW United States.

With a flat flow pattern aloft the general flow will be zonal
through much of the forecast cycle. Periods of high clouds will
pass across the region on several days for this package. Most of
any moisture that swings through will be high-level with a bit of
mid-level. There appears to be virtually no chance across the
forecast area for any precipitation.

Late Tuesday and Wednesday a storm system crosses the central
Rockies but passes way too far north to impact our region. There
is a strong cold front that pushes south through the central
plains benieth this upper system. This front will arrive in our
area Wednesday night. Previous model runs showed a very strong
push into our region, but the current models are suggesting a
stronger SE push toward the Gulf states, with a weaker slosh west
into our region. There will be some cooling east as the Rio Grand
as shallow cool air slides in for Thursday. Temperatures will drop
from well above normal to very near normal for the rest of the
week.

At the very end of this package we look at potential for another
cold front to push in from the plains late Friday as moisture
and a disturbance pass over from the west. Current model solutions
show some generally light precipitation focused over the area
mountains Friday evening and possibly into the weekend.

14-Bird

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 10/00Z-11/00Z...
VFR conds thru period with FEW-SCT250 clouds. Generally variable and
light winds around 5 kts thru all sites. Expect some stronger gusts
in eastern Otero and Hudspeth Co. after 18Z.

29-Crespo

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

The cold airmass that was brought by the cold front yesterday will
remain through tonight. Tomorrow, temperatures will increase about
10 degrees, which will take us back to above normal. Similarly,
relative humidities will reach their maximum values today, then they
will lower into the 20s for the rest of the week. Wind speeds are
expected to remain fairly light between 5 to 15 mph with stronger
gusts in the eastern fire weather zones and at the highest
elevations. The only major threat could be a cold front towards the
ends of next week were a return of colder temperatures and stronger
winds could occur.

29-Crespo

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 32  63  41  69 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           30  62  39  68 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              28  62  37  67 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              30  60  38  66 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              23  49  30  52 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   29  62  38  66 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             28  58  35  62 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  27  64  36  69 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               27  61  35  67 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      33  63  42  68 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               27  63  35  68 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            31  67  40  71 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              30  57  39  64 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  29  64  38  70 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            29  63  38  68 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          31  61  41  67 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           19  62  29  67 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   26  63  34  67 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                28  65  38  70 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               31  61  38  67 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 27  56  36  61 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               26  55  34  58 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                25  53  32  57 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 23  59  31  62 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               27  63  35  66 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               20  61  30  66 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            22  59  27  62 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  27  60  34  64 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   20  61  25  66 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              18  59  22  65 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 28  62  36  66 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  25  66  34  71 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 24  65  34  70 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          27  66  36  70 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              30  62  37  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

14/29



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