Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 222213
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
313 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE ALOFT ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED PACIFIC
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN EXIT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE DRY AND WILL CAUSE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TO DEVELOP TO OUR EAST...WHICH IN TURN WILL AID IN MIXING
DOWN HIGHER WINDS ALOFT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SACRAMENTO...FRANKLIN AND SAN ANDRES
MOUNTAINS. AS THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT PUSHES PAST THE BORDERLAND
SUNDAY NIGHT...SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY AND
SUBSIDE SOME BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST OVER OUR AREA
THROUGH THANKSGIVING WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING TO RISE NEAR TO
ABOVE AVERAGE.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
WE HAVE RECOVERED FAIRLY RAPIDLY FROM THE SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE
WHICH PASSED TO OUR SOUTH LAST NIGHT BRINGING VERY LIGHT PCPN
MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA. THE RECOVERY IS DUE IN
PART TO FORCING OF THE THE NEXT STRONGER SYSTEM (SHORT WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE PACIFIC COLD FRONT) LOCATED OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS DRY SYSTEM (FOR US) WILL
START TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES OF TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL START TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY TO OUR EAST AND WILL KEEP
ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO TO KEEP OUR
OVERNIGHT BOUNDARY LEVEL WINDS MIXED UP ENOUGH EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS WHICH WILL IN TURN KEEP MINIMUM TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.
ALL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGHER WNDS ALOFT
WILL START TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS IN
THE PRE DAWN HOURS. HIGH ELEVATION AND EAST SLOPE AREAS EAST OF THE
RIO GRANDE WILL START TO EXPERIENCE WINDS AROUND OR OVER 30 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 50 MPH IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...PEAKING
DURING THE MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE SUBSIDING IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS SUNDAY. COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW THIS FAST
SYSTEM DROPPING DAYTIME TEMPS ABOUT 8 DEGREES F MONDAY WITH
ANOTHER DRY AND MINOR SECOND COOL PUSH FROM THE NORTH BY TUESDAY WITH
TEMPS DOWN ANOTHER 3 OR 4 DEGREES. A SERIES OF MINOR SHORT WAVES
ALOFT WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED SOME BY MID WEEK AND BEYOND BRINGING US
GRADUALLY WARMER WEATHER ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS TO INCLUDE
THANKSGIVING.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 23/00Z-24/00Z...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNSET...WITH MAX GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO SUNDAY...WITH INCREASING
WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. FAVORED DOWNSLOPE/MOUNTAIN WAVE
AREAS MAY SEE STRONG GUSTS OVER 40 KNOTS DEVELOP IN THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS...AROUND 10Z OR SO. CURRENTLY THINKING THAT THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF KELP...AND AWW CRITERIA WILL NOT
BE MET UNTIL LATER SUNDAY. BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING...GUSTY WNW TO NW
WINDS WILL BE COMMON AREA WIDE...AGAIN WITH GUSTS OVER 40 KNOTS
LIKELY EAST OF MOUNTAIN RANGES. EXPECT AWW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
KELP TOMORROW FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

A COLD FRONT WILL WORK IN FROM THE NORTH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AND SHIFTING TO THE NW-NNW.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TONIGHT AND SWEEP ACROSS NORTHERN NM
TOMORROW. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS TO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH SUNDAY...ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES. WINDY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED IN PARTS OF THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AND EAST OF
DESERT MOUNTAIN RANGES IN THE LOWLANDS...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. MIN RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 15 PERCENT...
MITIGATING FIRE WEATHER RISKS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING IN COOLER
AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS
RUNNING AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WARMING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 46  64  35  55  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           40  66  32  53  27 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              40  65  29  54  26 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              41  63  29  49  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              31  42  19  35  17 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   39  63  29  51  26 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             36  57  29  49  23 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  37  65  27  54  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               34  63  26  54  22 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      47  64  36  53  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               39  65  31  54  26 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            42  68  34  57  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              42  60  34  49  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  42  67  31  55  26 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            41  65  31  54  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          47  64  33  51  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           30  64  21  52  23 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   33  65  24  53  26 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                42  64  31  55  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               41  63  30  51  27 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 36  49  24  44  19 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               33  48  22  42  19 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                32  51  24  43  21 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 34  54  22  47  21 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               40  61  31  51  26 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               35  65  25  53  22 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            32  56  22  48  21 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  36  60  27  51  22 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   26  62  19  53  19 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              21  60  17  52  14 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 39  59  30  50  26 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  37  66  28  57  24 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 36  67  27  57  23 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          39  68  29  58  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              39  66  31  58  26 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 5 PM MST SUNDAY FOR NMZ413>416.

TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 5 PM MST SUNDAY FOR TXZ419.

&&

$$

20/25 NOVLAN / HARDIMAN





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