Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 211035
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
434 AM MDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR THE NEW WEEK
AHEAD. SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY COULD STILL
CREATE A MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORM TODAY...OTHERWISE SUNNY SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL WILL BE THE RULE. A MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO IS AGAIN POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AND WITH AN INCREASE IN
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT LOW LEVELS...SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE
INTO WEST TEXAS. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVER HUDSPETH
AND FAR EASTERN EL PASO COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO WARM WITH HIGHS ABOUT 7 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
DRIER WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A
WINDY AND DUSTY DAY ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TO THE AREA SATURDAY WITH YET MORE WINDS AND A CHANCE OF
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW NOW OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT
MOVING OVER THE AREA. MODELS AND WV IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW DIRTY
FLOW WITHIN THIS RIDGE WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES. ALONG WITH RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THIS WAS ENOUGH TO KICK OFF SOME MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS YESTERDAY AND SHOULD BE SIMILAR TODAY. WV IMAGERY DOES
SHOW ONE VORT CENTER JUST SOUTH OF THE BOOTHEEL. NAM PICK THIS
UP...MOVING THE CENTER EAST TO THE BIG BEND BY THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON THE CWA. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY
MODEST MUCAPE AND LI VALUES COULD PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
PW`S STILL REMAIN AROUND ONE-HALF INCH BUT DEWPOINTS WILL BE
SOMEWHAT LOWER TODAY. RELATIVELY LOW WBZ CONTINUE (11K FT MSL) SO
SOME SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH STORMS. LOWER MOISTURE VALUES
INDICATE LOWER INTENSITY OF RAINFALL BUT STEERING FLOW HAS BECOME
VERY WEAK...HENCE A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO
VERY SLOW MOVEMENT.

ON TUESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE HAS MOVED EAST OF THE CWA IN RESPONSE TO
INCOMING PACIFIC TROUGH. WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE WILL TURN SOUTHEAST
AS LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE EAST HALF
OF THE CWA...THOUGH MODELS NOT QUITE AS STRONG WITH THIS FEATURE AS
PREVIOUS RUNS. MODELS DO CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD CONVERGENCE ZONE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL CWA AS DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE WEST
MEETS THE MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW FROM THE EAST TO FORM A SECONDARY
DRYLINE. LIMITED POPS TO EAST OF EL PASO BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AS FAR WEST AS DEMING.

REMAINDER OF WEEK LOOKS TO SHIFT BACK TO MORE TYPICAL APRIL WEATHER.
AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY...
INDUCING GOOD LEE SIDE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT STRONG SURFACE WINDS.
WINDS LIKELY JUST INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA. SYSTEM LIKELY TOO FAR
NORTH FOR PRECIP THOUGH FRONT COMING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD
PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS. GFS STILL SHOWING DEEP UPPER LOW MOVING OFF
THE PACIFIC AND DOWN ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. ECMWF TRYING TO SLOWLY COME AROUND TO THIS SOLUTION AS
LATEST RUN NOW SHOWING MORE AMPLITUDE TO FLOW WITH PROGRESSIVE
TROUGH...THOUGH NOWHERE NEAR THE CLOSED LOW SOLUTION OF THE GFS.
HEDGED TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION DAYS 6/7 WITH MORE WINDS AND A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 21/12Z-22/12Z...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF TERMINALS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT AT SPEEDS
BELOW 12 KTS. A SHALLOW CUMULUS FIELD IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH FEW-SCT070-080 DEVELOPING BETWEEN 20Z AND 00Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TODAY
LIMITING MOST RAIN CHANCES. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE GILA AND SACRAMENTOS WHERE SOME WEAK AFTERNOON
CONVECTION MAY BRIEFLY DEVELOP AS LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
OVER THE REGION. MIN RH VALUES WILL BE 15 TO 20 PERCENT FOR THE
LOWLANDS WITH READINGS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON.

SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL PICK UP ACROSS THE REGION BY TUESDAY
USHERING IN SOME ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL PUSH TO
ABOUT ABOUT A SILVER CITY TO DEMING LINE BEFORE BEING PUSHED BACK
EAST BY WESTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER APPROACHING TROUGH.
ONCE AGAIN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE FAVORED FOR SOME SCATTERED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. IN ADDITION A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY FORM
ALONG A PSEUDO DRY LINE EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE BY LATE IN THE DAY AS
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS SWEPT EASTWARD.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY BRINGING WITH
IT STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS ALONG WITH MUCH DRIER AIR.
MIN RH VALUES WILL DROP BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS FOR ALL LOCATIONS BY
MIDWEEK. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN RED FLAG CONDITIONS BEING MET ACROSS
MOST FIRE WEATHER ZONES WEDNESDAY. WHILE WINDS WILL DROP OFF SOME
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MIN RH VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL
BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS. OVER THE WEEKEND ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH
WITH STRONG WINDS RETURNING ALONG WITH AN INCREASING FIRE WEATHER
THREAT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 84  59  89  63  88 /   0   0   0  10   0
SIERRA BLANCA           81  49  87  54  86 /   0   0  10  10   0
LAS CRUCES              82  52  87  54  86 /   0   0   0  10   0
ALAMOGORDO              81  52  84  55  85 /   0   0   0  10   0
CLOUDCROFT              59  37  63  42  61 /  30  10  10  20   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   80  54  85  56  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             76  48  80  50  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  81  49  88  51  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               80  50  87  53  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      82  60  88  63  88 /   0   0   0  10   0
DELL CITY               79  45  83  50  83 /  10   0  10  10   0
FORT HANCOCK            87  55  92  61  92 /   0   0  10  10   0
LOMA LINDA              77  52  81  53  81 /   0   0  10  10   0
FABENS                  83  53  89  59  87 /   0   0   0  10   0
SANTA TERESA            83  52  88  58  87 /   0   0   0  10   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          80  58  85  62  84 /   0   0   0  10   0
JORNADA RANGE           82  41  86  46  84 /   0   0   0  10   0
HATCH                   81  44  87  49  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                80  56  86  60  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               84  53  87  54  87 /   0   0   0  10   0
MAYHILL                 67  41  71  46  72 /  30  20  20  20   0
MESCALERO               70  36  73  42  73 /  30  10  10  20   0
TIMBERON                68  37  71  42  71 /  20  10  10  20   0
WINSTON                 75  46  79  44  77 /  10   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               78  56  82  56  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               79  48  83  54  80 /   0   0   0  10   0
LAKE ROBERTS            74  44  78  44  75 /  20   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  77  49  81  49  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   79  40  83  40  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              77  37  82  37  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 76  51  80  51  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  82  51  88  56  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 81  49  87  53  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          82  54  90  56  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              80  49  85  50  81 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR NMZ110>113.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR TXZ055-056.

&&

$$

HEFNER/LANEY








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