Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 272101
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
201 PM MST SAT DEC 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CHILLY AND UNSETTLED WEATHER OF THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL FINALLY
GIVE WAY TO A LITTLE SUNSHINE TO WRAP UP THE WEEKEND AND START THE
NEW WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES IN TUESDAY AND COOLS THE REGION
OFF ONCE AGAIN. BY MIDWEEK WE WILL START TO SEE A STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THAT WILL SPREAD RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE FINALLY PULLING AWAY FROM THE
BORDERLAND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS LINGERED OVER THE AREA AND RESULTED IN
COOL AND CLAMMY WEATHER WILL FINALLY PULL EAST OF HERE OVERNIGHT.
AS THE TROUGH DEPARTS SKIES WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO CLEAR. THIS WILL
OPEN THE DOOR TO MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING RESULTING IN VERY
COLD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES WHERE DEW POINTS HAVE
STAYED IN THE TEENS ALL DAY TODAY. MEANWHILE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN ZONES WHERE SOME MOISTURE AND SHOWERS HAVE LINGERED
TODAY DEW POINTS SHOULD REMAIN JUST A BIT HIGHER OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME PATCHES OF RATHER
DENSE FREEZING FOG FROM NEAR THE EL PASO METRO AREA EASTWARD INTO
HUDSPETH AND SOUTHERN OTERO COUNTIES.

THE UPPER FLOW WILL BRIEFLY TRANSITION TO WEST OR NORTHWESTERLY
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALLOWING FOR A DRIER PERIOD AS WELL AS
MODERATING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.
HOWEVER THE WARM UP WILL BE SHORT LIVED. A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL HELP TO PUSH SEVERAL STRONG SHORTWAVES DOWN
THROUGH A DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THE FIRST OF
THESE WILL HELP DISLODGE A COLDER ARCTIC AIR MASS OVER WESTERN
CANADA THAT WILL EVENTUALLY RESULT IN THE ARRIVAL OF A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION TUESDAY. THIS AIR MASS WILL TEND TO
MODIFY A BIT AS IT TRAVELS SOUTH DUE TO A LACK OF DECENT SNOW
COVER OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. NONE THE LESS WE CAN
EXPECT TEMPS A GOOD 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE TROUGH WILL THEN
SERVE TO DEEPEN THE TROUGH AND EVENTUALLY CREATE A CUT OFF LOW
OVER NEVADA AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA BY LATE TUESDAY. IT IS AT THIS
POINT THAT THE LONG RANGE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT. THE GFS
TENDS TO BRING THE CLOSED LOW OVER NEW MEXICO QUICKER THAN THE
ECMWF. IN ADDITION THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE ACTUAL
TRACK OF THE LOW AS IT CROSS OUR REGION. THIS IS IMPORTANT NOT
ONLY FOR THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION BUT ALSO IN
DETERMINING PRECIP TYPE AS WELL WITH THE COLD CORE OF THE UPPER
LOW DROPPING SNOW LEVELS SIGNIFICANTLY OVER AREAS THAT IT PASSES
DIRECTLY.

AS ALL OF THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY THIS FORECAST PACKAGE
HAS FOLLOWED A GENERAL COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE LONG RANGE
OPERATIONAL OFFERINGS. AS A RESULT SNOW WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP
LATE TUESDAY OVER THE SACRAMENTOS DUE MOSTLY TO UP-SLOPE
ENHANCEMENT. MEANWHILE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW
WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY
FRIDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM SHEARS OPEN AND EXISTS TO THE EAST.
SEVERAL INCHES OF MOUNTAIN SNOW REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG WITH A
GENERAL RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 28/00Z- 29/00Z...
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10 IN NM WILL GRADUALLY GO FROM
SCT-BKN040-050 TO SKC-FEW050 BY 03Z. FAR W TX WILL SEE A SLOWER
DECREASE OF THE BKN040-050 COVERAGE AND -SHSN AS UPPER TROUGH
LINGERS OVER AREA UNTIL ABOUT 09Z. AS SKIES CLEAR PATCHY 1-3SM BR
EXPECTED ALONG AND E OF KELP-KALM LINE. AFT 12Z...SCT150 BKN200-250.
N WINDS UNDER 10KTS WILL SHIFT TO THE W AFT 12Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONE MORE DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEFORE A QUICK WARMUP
OCCURS FOR MONDAY AHEAD OF A DIGGING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT
BASIN. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OUT OF THE WEST
BEFORE A STRONG BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE EAST TUESDAY.
GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ON WESTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR MOUNTAIN
ZONES WITH A MIX POSSIBLE AT VALLEY LOCATIONS. EXACT TIMING AND
PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE STILL QUESTIONABLE...BUT IT WILL GET COOLER WITH
AT LEAST SOME LIGHT PRECIP FOR MOST ZONES THURSDAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 21  47  28  56  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           22  45  26  54  27 /  20   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              20  46  24  51  27 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              18  46  23  52  27 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              11  32  20  39  13 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   18  45  24  51  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             16  41  24  46  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  19  46  21  53  23 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               18  44  21  51  24 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      24  46  33  55  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               17  48  23  58  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            22  49  25  57  28 /  10   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              21  41  29  52  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  19  47  25  56  27 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            18  46  23  54  26 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          24  46  28  52  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           15  47  17  52  18 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   20  47  22  53  24 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                23  45  27  51  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               21  45  25  52  27 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 13  40  25  46  21 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               12  39  23  44  17 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                13  38  22  40  21 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 11  42  22  46  23 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               19  43  24  49  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               14  47  19  52  20 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            11  40  22  46  23 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  16  43  23  49  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   13  45  20  49  21 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK               9  43  12  50  15 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 20  41  25  49  27 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  21  48  22  53  27 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 18  47  19  54  22 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          20  49  21  55  23 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              20  46  22  52  28 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

LANEY/GRZYWACZ





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