Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 241017
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
417 AM MDT Wed May 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Warmer temperatures are on the way today and then strong winds
and dust return to the forecast for Thursday and Friday. The start
of the holiday weekend will be calmer and still warm with plenty
of sunny skies. By Monday moisture and rain chances return to the
forecast and our rain chances will continue through the middle of
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today will be the quiet before the (kind of) storm on Thursday.
Today we will be warmer as an upper level ridge begins to build
across New Mexico. Despite the ridge aloft we will see some breezy
west winds, which will be a sign of things to come. Now the
weather pattern on Thursday (and again on Friday) is not your
classic wind maker, but it will be close enough to give us some
strong winds both days. On Thursday the upper ridge will move to
the east and a zonal flow will set up across the area. This zonal
flow will help create a lee side trough over southern Colorado. At
the same time a relatively stronger jet stream aloft will move
over the area. The combination of the stronger winds aloft, warm
temperatures and lee side trough development will add up to give
us strong winds on Thursday. We will see almost a duplicate of
things on Friday, though it does appear that Thursday may have
slightly stronger winds. We may need a wind advisory (25 to 35
mph) for parts of the area on Thursday and maybe for a few spots
on Friday. Also with the strong winds and warm temps (90`s in the
lowlands) we will see favorable conditions for blowing dust,
especially in the dust prone areas around Deming and Lordsburg,
but with a more westerly component to the winds, that will also
help bring dust into El Paso as well.

For the weekend we will see calmer conditions as our zonal flow
continues. Temperatures will continue to slowly slide back down to
what we might expect this time of year. Late in the day on Sunday
we will have a weak back door cold front move across the area.
This front will usher in some slightly cooler air so our highs for
the start of the week will be a degree or two below normal. More
importantly the front will help usher in some moisture from the
east. Both of the extended GFS and ECMWF models agree that
moisture will move back in, but the GFS has more moisture and
pushes it in further to the west than the ECMWF. The GFS is much
more bullish on our rain chances as it has widespread rainfall
across the area Monday through Wednesday, while the ECMWF model
has some isolated rain on Monday but then it keeps most of the
precipitation just to our east. For now I have split the
difference and put some slight chance rain pops in the forecast
for most locations Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 24/12Z-25/12Z
VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. Ceilings will be
unlimited and winds will be from the east this morning and then
come around to the west and a little breezy by the afternoon.
Stronger winds return to the area for Thursday and Friday.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Fire weather concerns start to increase today. Today we will be
warmer with min RH`s at or below 15% everywhere, but winds will
stay below critical levels so Red Flag conditions are not expected
this afternoon. On Thursday and again on Friday we will see even
warmer and drier air in place and we will see strong winds both
days. We will see Red Flag conditions on Thursday and will likely
see Red Flag conditions most places on Friday. The weekend will be
a little cooler and calmer, but continued very dry. For the first
of next week we will see moisture and rain chances begin to move
back into the region. Winds will stay well below critical levels
and min RH`s will be 20% or higher most locations except in the
New Mexico boot heel were mid teen min RH`s will prevail.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 93  71  96  70 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           89  67  96  68 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              91  65  94  62 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              88  65  93  63 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              67  53  71  49 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   91  65  93  61 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             84  58  84  53 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  92  63  93  58 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               92  62  93  57 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      91  71  95  70 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               91  64  98  66 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            94  69  99  70 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              86  67  91  65 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  93  69  98  69 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            92  68  96  66 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          90  68  94  66 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           91  63  93  61 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   93  63  95  60 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                93  66  95  62 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               90  67  95  66 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 77  57  82  55 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               75  56  81  54 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                75  56  80  53 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 84  55  84  49 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               89  62  90  56 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               91  62  93  59 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            83  52  84  47 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  86  57  87  52 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   90  57  90  53 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              87  59  87  53 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 87  60  88  55 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  93  62  93  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 92  61  93  57 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          93  62  92  58 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              89  60  88  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for NMZ110>113.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for TXZ055-056.

&&

$$

15/15



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