Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 012122
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
322 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND BY
THURSDAY NIGHT LOCATIONS WEST OF DEMING COULD SEE SOME HEAVY RAIN.
OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY...THEN NEAR NORMAL ON THURSDAY AND
MAYBE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE MOISTURE IS NEAR AND COMING...BUT NOT JUST YET. CURRENTLY AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW LURKED JUST OFF THE GULF COAST OF TEXAS. THIS LOW
WAS BLOCKING THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT
SITS ALMOST ON TOP OF THE BORDERLAND. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE
LOW WILL PUSH FURTHER EAST AND THAT WILL ALLOW THE RIDGE TO SLIDE
A LITTLE FURTHER EAST. AS THE RIDGE PUSHES EAST THIS WILL ALLOW
THE MOISTURE PLUME CURRENTLY OVER ARIZONA TO BEGIN TO SLIDE TO THE
EAST OVER NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS. FOR THIS EVENING RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO LOCATIONS WEST OF DEMING AND T OR C
AND IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WE WILL HAVE ENOUGH
MOISTURE SO THAT I HAVE PUT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN
THE FORECAST FOR EVERYBODY.

THE GFS AND THE NAM INDICATE THAT SOME DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE
WILL MOVE UP IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND INTO
FRIDAY. WE WILL SEE PERCEPTIBLE WATER VALUES WELL ABOVE NORMAL SO
WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING
OUT WEST. FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK THERE
IS A DIFFERENCE OF OPINION BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE ECMWF
HAS A STRONGER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERLY STORM TRACK AND
THAT SYSTEM IS ENOUGH TO SWEEP THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA. THE
GFS ON THE OTHER HAND HAS A WEAKER TROUGH WHICH HAS NEXT TO NO
INFLUENCE ON US AND THAT KEEPS THE MOISTURE AND THE RAIN CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST. FOR NOW I`LL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION AND
KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST CONSIDERING THAT IT IS STILL
THE MONSOON SEASON.

LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES...WE COULD SEE AN END OF OUR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURE STREAK AND EL PASO`S CONSECUTIVE 90+ HIGH TEMPERATURE
DAYS. WEDNESDAY`S TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BUT
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL. SINCE THE NORMAL HIGH FOR EL PASO IS RIGHT AROUND 90 THAT
MEANS WE COULD SEE AN END OF OUR STREAK. FOR NOW I DO KEEP THE
TEMPS AT OR ABOVE 90 (BUT JUST BARELY) FOR EL PASO INTO THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 02/00Z-03/00Z.
P6SM FEW-SCT100-120 SCT-BKN250 FOR MOST OF THE PD. SCT 1-3SM TSRA
BKN050-070 EXPECTED IN THE GILA REGION WITH ISOLD STORMS IN THE
SAC MTS AND WEST OF A LINE FROM KTCS-KDMN. W TO NW WINDS THRU
PD AOB 12KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE MOST PREVALENT WEST OF THE DIVIDE BUT WILL SLOWLY
BE SHIFTING TO THE EAST OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE OVER WESTERN ZONES WITH THE THREAT
FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING RETURNING BY THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT START
TO COOL DOWN WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S
LOWLANDS WEDNESDAY BEFORE GOING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. VENT RATES WILL GENERALLY BE FAIR TO GOOD WITH
UPPER RIDGE KEEPING TRANSPORT WINDS LIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 71  97  70  93 /   0  20  20  10
SIERRA BLANCA           66  96  65  92 /   0   0  20  10
LAS CRUCES              66  95  65  91 /   0  20  20  10
ALAMOGORDO              66  96  65  91 /  10  20  20  30
CLOUDCROFT              48  72  47  69 /  10  30  30  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   65  91  64  87 /  10  30  20  40
SILVER CITY             62  85  60  81 /  20  30  20  50
DEMING                  65  94  64  88 /  20  20  20  50
LORDSBURG               65  93  63  86 /  20  20  20  50
WEST EL PASO METRO      71  97  71  93 /   0  20  20  10
DELL CITY               66  98  65  95 /   0   0  20  10
FORT HANCOCK            70  98  69  95 /   0   0  20  10
LOMA LINDA              69  95  67  90 /   0   0  20  10
FABENS                  69  98  68  94 /   0  10  20  10
SANTA TERESA            69  96  68  92 /   0  20  20  10
WHITE SANDS HQ          67  95  67  91 /   0  20  20  10
JORNADA RANGE           66  95  65  90 /   0  20  20  20
HATCH                   64  95  64  90 /   0  20  20  20
COLUMBUS                66  95  66  90 /  10  20  20  50
OROGRANDE               68  96  68  92 /   0  20  20  10
MAYHILL                 55  80  54  77 /  10  30  30  40
MESCALERO               54  82  53  79 /  10  30  30  40
TIMBERON                57  81  56  77 /  10  20  30  30
WINSTON                 58  82  56  78 /  30  40  30  40
HILLSBORO               64  92  62  88 /  20  30  20  40
SPACEPORT               65  93  64  88 /  10  20  20  30
LAKE ROBERTS            54  84  53  79 /  30  30  30  50
HURLEY                  63  88  61  83 /  20  20  20  50
CLIFF                   55  92  59  84 /  20  20  20  50
MULE CREEK              54  91  56  82 /  20  20  20  50
FAYWOOD                 63  90  61  85 /  20  30  20  50
ANIMAS                  65  91  63  85 /  20  20  20  50
HACHITA                 64  93  64  87 /  20  20  20  50
ANTELOPE WELLS          63  89  61  83 /  20  30  20  50
CLOVERDALE              64  86  61  80 /  20  30  20  50

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

BRICE/GRZYWACZ



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