Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 010927
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
327 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ACROSS THE BORDERLAND
WILL WILL BRING A WARM AND MOSTLY DRY DAY TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND FAR WEST TEXAS TODAY. ONLY THE AREAS MOUNTAINS HAVE A
REASONABLE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH
CHANGE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WARMER DAY AS
LOWLAND TEMPERATURES LOOK TO TOP OUT IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS. FRIDAY
A WEAK FRONT AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO REGION
TO BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT
IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE AND MODEL DATA INDICATE THE REGION LACKS THE NECESSARY
INGREDIENTS FOR MUCH...IF ANY...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. WV
SAT SHOWS A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR OVER THE REGION AS UPPER LEVELS
ARE CONTINENTAL IN ORIGIN. LOW LEVELS ARE STILL E/SE AND KEEPING
DEWPOINTS UP BUT THE MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND SHALLOW. IN ADDITION
THE UPPER HIGH HAS EXPANDED A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION WHICH HAS
WARMED TEMPS ALOFT RESULTING IN CAPPING WHICH CAN BE SEEN ON THE
01/00Z SOUNDING...AND SHELTERED THE FORECAST AREA FROM ANY
APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCES. PROG SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
CONTINUATION OF CAPPING AND DRIER CONDITIONS MEANING A MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT TODAY AND INTO THURSDAY. THUS VERY LIMITED POPS ARE IN
AND THOSE ARE RELEGATED TO THE W AND GILA ZONES. THURSDAY THERE IS
NOT MUCH CHANGE. WITH GENERALLY DRY AIR IN PLACE AND HIGH PRESSURE
EXPANDING ALOFT A HOT DAY IS EXPECTED WITH LOWLAND HIGHS BACK INTO
TRIPLE-DIGIT TERRITORY. LATE THURSDAY THERE IS THE BEGINNING OF
MOISTURE SEEP BACK INTO THE REGION WHICH DOES SUGGEST SOME WEAK
TREND BACK TOWARD A LESS STABLE ATMOSPHERE. THUS ALTHOUGH SLIGHT
THERE ARE THE RETURN OF MINIMAL POPS BACK INTO MOST ZONES.

FRIDAY THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ROTATES CLOCKWISE TO OUR WEST...WHILE
A MINOR SURFACE FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE EAST. THESE CHANGES MEAN
MORE DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
WEST WE COME INTER A NORTH NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW ALOFT AND THE
INCREASE LIKELIHOOD OF IMPULSES PASSING OVER. COMBINED WITH PW`S
BACK ABOVE 1" WE FORECAST AN INCREASE IN POPS AREA WIDE FOR THE
FOURTH OF JULY.

SATURDAY THE PATTERN LOOKS TRANSITIONAL...BUT IT DOESN`T APPEAR TO
IMPACT SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MIGRATE
EAST TO OUR NORTH AND WILL...OVER TIME...FOCUS A MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME OVER SE AZ/SW NM. FOR SATURDAY ALL ZONES LOOK TO
HAVE A UNIFORM MOISTURE SIGNATURE WITH EQUAL POPS ALL
LOWLANDS...TYPICAL HIGHER POPS MOUNTAINS. FOR SUNDAY WITH THE
TRANSITION OF THE HIGH TO OUR EAST RESULTS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THIS BEGINS A
MOISTURE TAP THAT LOOKS TO FOCUS WEST. THIS PATTERN REALLY DOES
LOOK LIKE TYPICAL MONSOON SEASON MOISTURE IS IN PLACE. FOR SUNDAY
ONWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIODS HIGHER POPS WEST
VS EAST ACROSS THE CWFA LOOKS WARRANTED. HOWEVER...ALL ZONES WILL
HAVE ADEQUATE MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED STORMS GIVEN WARM
SURFACE TEMPS AND UPSLOPE MOUNTAIN FLOW WORKING AS DESTABILIZATION
MECHANISMS EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 01/12Z-02/12Z...VFR CONDS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE FCST PD. DRIER AIR WILL MEAN FEWER CLOUDS AND STORMS. THUS
SKIES FEW-SCT080 SCT140. ISOLD TCU-TSRA OVR MTNS AFT 20Z. WINDS
GNRLY 140-180 5-15 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND A LITTLE LESS
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE THE AREA WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
FEWER STORMS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MORE ACTIVITY WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND ANOTHER DISTURBS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH INCREASING THE RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MIN RH WILL RUN AROUND 18% TO 23% LOWLANDS AND 30% TO
40% ABOVE 7500 FT SACRAMENTOS TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 98  75 102  75 /  10   0  10  30
SIERRA BLANCA           93  68  99  70 /   0   0   0  20
LAS CRUCES              96  71 100  72 /  10  10  10  30
ALAMOGORDO              95  71  98  71 /  10  10  20  30
CLOUDCROFT              73  59  76  57 /  10  10  40  50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   95  71  97  70 /  10  10  20  30
SILVER CITY             89  65  90  65 /  20  20  40  40
DEMING                  97  71 100  71 /  10  10  20  30
LORDSBURG               97  70  98  69 /  10  10  20  30
WEST EL PASO METRO      98  75 102  76 /  10   0  10  30
DELL CITY               96  69 100  70 /   0   0  10  20
FORT HANCOCK            98  72 102  73 /   0   0   0  20
LOMA LINDA              91  69  97  69 /  10   0  10  20
FABENS                  98  72 102  73 /   0   0  10  30
SANTA TERESA            96  73 100  74 /  10   0  10  30
WHITE SANDS HQ          96  71 100  72 /   0   0  10  30
JORNADA RANGE           96  71  99  71 /  10  10  20  30
HATCH                   97  71 100  70 /   0  10  20  30
COLUMBUS                97  71 100  71 /  10  10  10  30
OROGRANDE               95  72  99  73 /   0   0  10  30
MAYHILL                 83  60  84  59 /  10  10  40  40
MESCALERO               84  59  86  59 /  10  10  40  40
TIMBERON                82  59  85  58 /  10  10  40  40
WINSTON                 88  63  90  61 /  20  20  40  40
HILLSBORO               95  67  96  66 /  20  10  20  30
SPACEPORT               96  71  99  71 /  10  10  20  30
LAKE ROBERTS            88  61  90  60 /  20  20  50  40
HURLEY                  92  67  93  66 /  20  10  20  40
CLIFF                   95  64  96  65 /  20  20  40  40
MULE CREEK              94  65  95  67 /  20  20  40  40
FAYWOOD                 92  68  94  66 /  10  10  20  30
ANIMAS                  98  70 100  69 /  10  10  30  30
HACHITA                 98  70 100  69 /  10  10  20  30
ANTELOPE WELLS          96  67  97  66 /  10  10  30  40
CLOVERDALE              92  66  93  66 /  10  10  30  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14-BIRD


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