Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 162126
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
226 PM MST Mon Jan 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level disturbance will move slowly across New Mexico and
west Texas tonight through Tuesday night bringing isolated rain
showers and mountain snow showers to the region. Westerly winds
will result in dry weather with near normal temperatures
Wednesday and Thursday. A stronger low pressure system will
produce breezy to windy conditions Friday and Saturday along with
lowland rain showers and mountain snows. Temperatures will also
become cooler Friday and Saturday. Westerly winds will bring a
return of dry weather and seasonable temperatures Sunday and
Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Large and very positively tilted upper trough axis was aligned
through southwest Colorado across Arizona into northern Baja early
this afternoon with southwest winds ahead of it bringing dry
weather across New mexico and west Texas. However trough axis will
move slowly to the east southeast tonight and then drift eastward
tomorrow with an embedded closed low developing near the Arizona-
New Mexico border by late Tuesday afternoon. As system approaches
the CWA mid level winds become more southerly with modest moisture
transport pushing the precipitable up to around .5 inch. Upper low
center should subsequently move to the northeast Tuesday evening
while trailing trough axis slowly pivots eastward into New
Mexico. This scenario will cause weak dynamic upward forcing and
cooling aloft over the CWA with a few rain showers resulting. The
air mass also becomes weakly unstable so have mentioned thunder
tomorrow over the south central and southeast zones. Snow will
mostly occur above 7000 feet though amounts should be light and
under 2 inches.

Trough axis should move eastward across the CWA Wednesday but
expect a more westerly flow will result in dry weather with near
normal temperatures Wednesday and again on Thursday. Another
faster moving upper disturbance will then race eastward across
the southern Rockies on Friday with dynamic forcing sufficient to
again produce a few lowland rain and high mountain snow showers.

A deeper/stronger trough with an upper low then advances across
the southern Rockies on Saturday inducing lee cyclogenesis over
the Texas panhandle. Resultant strengthening low and mid level
gradients will generate windy conditions on Saturday with latest
guidance showing 60 kt winds at 700 mb and 30 to 40 kt winds at
850 mb suggesting surface wind speeds at least at advisory levels
most locations. Very strong dynamic upward forcing also likely as
the CWA will become located in the left front quadrant of a 150 kt
upper jet streak. Thus expect widespread lowland rains and high
mountain snows on Friday night through Saturday.

Subsiding west to northwest flow behind the trough will bring dry
weather with seasonable temperatures Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 17/00Z-18/00Z.. Contd VFR: Sky FEW-SCT(020-040)
and SCT120-150 SCT250. Winds 00Z-06z SW-NW 5-10KTS and after 06Z
gnly NE7-12KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Conditions will improve as yesterday`storm has moved out of the
area. Another secondary low to the west of New Mexico will move
eastward and develop some over the region Tuesday, but will not
bring much in the way of additional precipitation. Temperatures will
warm slowly back to near normal by Tuesday. Winds will remain light
through Thursday. However another stronger Pacific storm system will
start approaching Friday which will increase the winds and bring
additional precipitation chances into the weekend. Expect poor to
fair vent rates through Wednesday, then improve for the end of the
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 36  55  35  58 /   0  20  10   0
Sierra Blanca           33  52  33  57 /   0  30  20   0
Las Cruces              33  52  32  56 /   0  10  10   0
Alamogordo              34  51  33  53 /  10  10  10   0
Cloudcroft              24  36  25  39 /  30  20  20   0
Truth or Consequences   32  51  32  55 /  20  10  10   0
Silver City             29  48  29  50 /  20  20  10   0
Deming                  31  53  31  57 /   0  10  10   0
Lordsburg               31  54  32  57 /   0  10  10   0
West El Paso Metro      38  54  36  58 /   0  20  10   0
Dell City               30  53  33  59 /   0  30  20   0
Fort Hancock            34  56  34  60 /   0  20  10   0
Loma Linda              35  49  34  54 /   0  20  10   0
Fabens                  33  55  34  59 /   0  20  10   0
Santa Teresa            34  53  35  58 /   0  20  10   0
White Sands HQ          36  53  33  57 /   0  10  10   0
Jornada Range           31  52  31  56 /   0  10  10   0
Hatch                   33  52  31  57 /   0  10  10   0
Columbus                34  54  33  58 /   0  10  10   0
Orogrande               35  53  33  56 /   0  20  10   0
Mayhill                 28  44  27  48 /  30  20  20   0
Mescalero               27  43  27  46 /  30  20  20   0
Timberon                27  43  28  46 /  20  20  20   0
Winston                 23  45  27  51 /  30  20  20   0
Hillsboro               29  49  31  54 /  20  20  10   0
Spaceport               31  51  31  55 /  10  10  10   0
Lake Roberts            22  47  24  49 /  30  20  20   0
Hurley                  28  50  29  52 /  10  20  10   0
Cliff                   27  53  29  54 /  20  20  10   0
Mule Creek              26  52  29  53 /  20  20  10   0
Faywood                 29  50  30  53 /  10  20  10   0
Animas                  31  54  31  58 /   0  20  10   0
Hachita                 30  53  31  57 /   0  10  10   0
Antelope Wells          30  53  31  57 /   0  20  10   0
Cloverdale              32  52  32  55 /  10  20  10   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

05 Rogash/20 Novlan



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