Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 272330 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
630 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.AVIATION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE CUMULUS
FIELD WITH BASES BETWEEN 7K AND 9K FEET OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...
WHILE CLOSER TO THE COAST...MORE SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS EXISTS
WITH DECKS CLOSER TO 10K FEET. THINK THIS HIGHER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS
WILL MIGRATE FARTHER INLAND PER RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS AND AFFECT
THE AERODROMES OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...HAVE RETAINED THE PREVIOUS
MENTION OF TEMPO FEW015 CEILINGS INHERITED FROM THE OUTGOING SHIFT.
TOMORROW...VFR IS LIKELY TO PREVAIL WITH LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS AND
RISING DECKS. ONLY ISSUE OF CONCERN IS THE AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY
MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE WEST INDUCING MORE CLOUDINESS WITHIN SOUTH-
CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
THIS EXISTS...AND THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR BY INCOMING
SHIFTS THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD INDICATED...WITH ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
CURRENT SUITE OF TAFS POSSIBLE.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
THE LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF HAS A DISORGANIZED CIRCULATION...BUT
STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING DRIER AIR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
SUBSIDENCE AND ADVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS PROVIDE A
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST MOTION FOR STORMS. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. MORE VIGOROUS STORMS CONTINUE OVER THE
COASTAL PLAINS...JUST TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA. OVERALL COVERAGE OF
POPS WILL BE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE
AREA...AND ONLY 20 PERCENT IN THE EASTERN 1/3. THERE IS STILL
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 50 MPH WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS. A FEW SPOTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST MAY SEE 1/4 INCH OF
RAIN...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AND STORMS WILL END
ENTIRELY BY 9 PM.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE FORECAST FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS IS STILL ON TRACK WITH THE LOW
OVER THE GULF SLOWLY MOVING INLAND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH THE
MAIN ACTION ON FRIDAY AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH SYNCS UP WITH THE
GULF LOW. WE HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...BUT THEN DRY MONDAY ONWARD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE RE-
ASSERTS ITSELF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THE GFS
AND CMC INDICATE ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...
THEN MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST ACROSS TEXAS THE LAST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. THE ECMWF DOES NOT HAVE THIS FEATURE AT ALL...BUT DOES
INDICATE A SLUG OF MOIST GULF AIR MOVING NORTH IN THE SAME TIME
FRAME. WE DECIDED TO KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME
DUE TO THE LACK OF CONSENSUS ON THE FEATURES AND TIMING...BUT WE
WILL BE MONITORING THIS CLOSELY AS TIME GOES ON.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              75  97  76  95  76 /  10  20  20  40  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  97  74  95  73 /  10  20  20  40  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  97  74  96  74 /  20  30  30  40  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  95  74  93  74 /  10  20  20  30  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           77  99  77  96  77 /  10  10  20  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  95  76  93  76 /  10  20  20  40  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             72  97  73  94  73 /  10  20  20  30  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        74  97  74  95  74 /  10  20  20  40  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   75  96  75  94  76 /  20  30  30  40  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       77  97  77  95  77 /  10  20  20  30  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           76  98  76  95  76 /  10  20  20  30  20
&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TOMASELLI



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