Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49
000
FXUS64 KEWX 052336 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
636 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. LATER IN THE PERIOD...WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AS A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS PUSHES TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS COAST. IT WILL BE A BIT
GUSTY FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AS A RESULT OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
WEST TEXAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
WIND FIELDS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN VARIABLE AND LIGHT...ALLOWING
SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO RISE A FEW DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY. AS HIGH
SURFACE PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST AND OFFSHORE...SURFACE WINDS
SHOULD SHIFT TO A SOUTHEASTERLY ORIENTATION BY FRIDAY MORNING.
VISIBLE AND WV SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME MOISTURE MOVING INTO
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE AND RESULTING IN SOME HIGH CLOUDS
OVER THE CWA.

MORE OF THE SAME EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW AS THE HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE AXIS BISECTS THE STATE. AS THICKNESSES CONTINUE TO INCREASE
AND WINDS RETURN TO THE SOUTHEAST...TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE
THEIR WARMING TREND OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS AND WARM INTO THE
MID 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE CWA.

OF SOME CONCERN IS THE INCREASED PGF OVER THE FAR WESTERN ZONES
TOMORROW AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING. MIN RH VALUES SHOULD
DECREASE TO THE LOWER 20S BY MID AFTERNOON AND COUPLED WITH WINDS
IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE...COULD RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERN. HOWEVER...FUELS CONTINUE TO STAY AT OR ABOVE NORMAL
MOISTURE LEVELS.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
AS THE OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN SHIFTS AND EVOLVES INTO THE
WEEKEND...POP CHANCES INCREASE BEGINNING SATURDAY EVENING OUT WEST
AND SPREADING EAST THROUGH MONDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT KDRT
SATURDAY NIGHT SHOW CAPPING AND MINIMAL CAPE ABOVE 600 MB. MODELS
HAVE ALSO BEEN UNDERESTIMATING CAP STRENGTH ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
AS OF LATE AND DEEP MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LACKING. HOWEVER...LLJ
STRENGTH IN THE GFS SHOWS 50+ KTS OUT OF THE DUE SOUTH AS AN
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE TRANSLATES NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS...SO INCLUDED AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THESE AREAS
WEST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY...A DRY LINE DEVELOPS JUST WEST OF THE WESTERN VAL VERDE
BORDER WITH ANOTHER STRONG LLJ RUNNING PARALLEL TO THE DRY LINE AT
40-50 KTS. ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO PASS NORTH OF
THE CWA AND DEVELOP STORMS TO OUR NORTH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS
TIME SHOW AN UNCAPPED BUT DRY ENVIRONMENT AT THE
SURFACE...SUGGESTING THE DRY LINE MAY MIX IN THE LOW LEVELS
FURTHER WEST AND HINDER CI DEVELOPMENT ON THE PLATEAU IN OUR CWA.
BUT ENOUGH ELEVATED CAPE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN
PRESENT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...SHOULD
THEY DEVELOP.

THE NEXT BROAD SHORTWAVE PASSAGE ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL INTERACT
WITH THE LESSER DEFINED DRY LINE BISECTING THE CWA. STORM
POSSIBILITIES SHOULD STAY EAST OF I35. WHILE ALL LONG RANGE MODELS
PRODUCE QPF...THE GFS AN OUTLIER PRODUCING SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER
QPF THAN THE ECMWF/CANADIAN/DGEX/UKMET. LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE AND LOW
END CHANCE POPS...MOSTLY EAST...FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. BEYOND
WEDNESDAY...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE 7 DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              59  87  61  85  66 /   0   0   0   0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  55  84  58  84  64 /   0   0   0   0  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     57  86  60  85  65 /   0   0   0   0  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            58  85  60  82  65 /   0   0   0   0  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           62  91  67  89  69 /   0   0  -   10  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        56  85  60  84  65 /   0   0   0   0  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             56  90  61  87  66 /   0   0   0   0  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        57  84  59  84  65 /   0   0   0   0  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   56  84  60  84  65 /   0   0   0   0  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       59  86  62  86  66 /   0   0   0   0  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           59  88  63  86  67 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...RUNYEN
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.