Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 251016
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
416 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2017

.SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday)...
Another seasonably cool evening with mostly clear skies and light
winds is occurring tonight across South Central Texas. Temperatures
are generally in the mid 40s to lower 50s, but some lower-lying spots
with drainage flows are in the lower 40s. Patchy fog may develop in
these lower-lying areas mainly along and east of Interstate 35 as
temperatures cool a few more degrees with dew points in the lower to
mid 40s. Any fog that develops should quickly lift a couple hours
after sunrise to set up a sunny afternoon with high temperatures
climbing into the upper 70s and lower 80s ahead of a cold front that
is currently moving into northwest Texas. This front and its
northerly wind shift should move into the northern Hill Country late
this morning to through the region this afternoon and clear our
Coastal Plains counties by early evening. We do not expect to have a
spike in temperatures with the frontal passage due to compressional
warming like we did with last Saturday`s frontal passage along the
I-35 corridor because winds will gradually back to the northeast
instead of veering to the southwest. Weak downsloping over the Hill
Country and Edwards Plateau should help offset the earlier frontal
passage in allowing temperatures to still climb into the upper 70s.

Scattered to broken clouds and potentially a brief window for very
isolated light showers mainly along the Escarpment and Coastal Plains
will be possible this evening. Very weak NE to SW oriented isentropic
ascent will be present over these areas, but moisture aloft should be
very limited which is keeping most model soundings from saturating at
any level. Nevertheless, some low cloud cover early in the evening
along with stronger mixing with 5-10 mph northerly winds should
actually allow low temperatures overnight to be warmer than they were
tonight, ranging from the lower to mid 40s over the Edwards Plateau
to mid 50s in the Coastal Plains. Although the weak front will have
dissipated by tomorrow, northerly winds will allow high temperatures
to be 3-5 degrees cooler than they will be today. Southerly flow may
begin to return late in the afternoon hours, but definitely should by
Sunday evening as high pressure pushes east of the state.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday Night through Friday)...
Our dry weather pattern will generally continue next week as a ridge
of high pressure over Mexico continues to influence our weather and
keep us in west-northwest flow aloft. The one exception to this will
be on Tuesday when we briefly have southwest flow aloft ahead of
another weak front and lee shortwave trough that will move across
Oklahoma Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. High temperatures
ahead of this system will climb back into the upper 70s and lower
80s for most of the region on Tuesday, but there is still a large
amount of uncertainty in whether or not a front will move through the
region by Wednesday morning. The operational GFS and ECMWF have a
very similar track of the upper-level disturbance through southern
Oklahoma into the lower Mississippi Valley which is different than
model runs last night that ejected the low northeast into the
Midwest. Therefore, models are trending a little back towards at
least having a weak front move into the region on Wednesday morning
to bring a northerly wind shift and slightly cooler temperatures with
the ECMWF continuing to run a bit warmer than the GFS. Regardless, a
broader shortwave trough will help push a reinforcing front through
the region on Thursday afternoon or evening to cool temperatures back
closer to normal for Friday. Both the GFS and ECMWF have trended east
with this trough and therefore are warmer than previous model cycles.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              78  54  74  50  77 /   0  -    0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  78  52  74  47  76 /   0  -    0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     80  54  75  49  77 /   0  -    0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            75  48  71  47  75 /   0  -    0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           79  51  74  50  77 /   0   0  -    0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        76  50  72  48  75 /   0  -    0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             81  53  76  48  78 /   0  -    0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        79  53  74  48  77 /   0  -    0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   79  55  74  47  76 /   0  10   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       80  55  75  52  77 /   0  -    0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           81  56  77  51  78 /   0  -    0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...04
Synoptic/Grids...LH



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