Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 271119
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
519 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.AVIATION...
ONLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG WITH INCREASING
THICKNESSES AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THE
WARMING TREND. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE WELL
ABOVE LATE JANUARY AVERAGES WITH SOME SPOTS NEAR 80. WARMER LOWS
TONIGHT AS DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO RISE.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
A PATTERN CHANGE BEGINS ON THURSDAY WHEN UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS...ONE
CURRENTLY MOVING NORTH ALONG COASTAL CALIFORNIA AND ANOTHER SHOWN
TO DROP SOUTHEAST FROM WESTERN CANADA...NEARLY PHASE INTO ONE AND
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS FORCING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL ONLY BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER AS COLD ADVECTION WAITS UNTIL THE EVENING. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG 132 WEST LONGITUDE OUT IN THE
PACIFIC APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/BAJA CALIFORNIA FRIDAY.
WEAK OVERRUNNING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
FRIDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN RETURNING TO OUR AREA. THERE
REMAINS UNCERTAINTY DUE TO LACK OF CONSENSUS AND INCONSISTENCY
AMONG THE MODELS WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES
FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS SHOW THE FRONT MOVING
BRIEFLY BACK NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA ON SATURDAY WITH THE GFS/GEM
NOW TAKING IT NORTH OF OUR AREA WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT IN OUR
AREA. THE GEM BRINGS THE ENTIRE TROUGH ACROSS TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS/ECMWF CLOSE OFF MOST OF THE TROUGH INTO A LOW OVER
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH A SMALL PART MOVING ACROSS TEXAS
THIS WEEKEND...THEN THE ECMWF MOVES AN OPENED TROUGH ACROSS TEXAS
MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS MOVING THE LOW ACROSS TEXAS TUESDAY
NIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH RAIN
CHANCES INCREASING FRIDAY NIGHT...PEAKING ON SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE FRONT IN OR NEAR OUR AREA...DECREASING
SUNDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER OUT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
THEN ENDING SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
TAKE HOLD. THERE COULD BE SOME HEAVIER RAINS SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AS UNSEASONABLY HIGH PWS IN THE 1.2 TO 1.6 INCH
RANGE ARE FORECAST ALONG THE FRONT. THE GFS AND LESSER EXTENT THE
ECMWF HAVE TRENDED MUCH WARMER FOR SATURDAY. HOWEVER...WILL
CONTINUE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALREADY FORECAST DUE TO DIFFICULTY
DISLODGING THE SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS AS WELL AS THE CLOUDS AND
RAIN. SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH/LOW. CHANGES ARE POSSIBLE TO THE
FORECAST AS SOUNDING NETWORKS WILL BE BETTER ABLE TO CAPTURE THE
ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES IN THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              78  48  80  52  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  77  43  78  49  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     78  45  80  49  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            75  45  79  49  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           78  46  79  50  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        77  45  79  50  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             80  42  81  48  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        77  44  79  49  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   75  46  77  51  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       79  47  79  50  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           78  46  79  50  75 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04





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