Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 212351 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
651 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
VFR conditions are expected across area terminals this evening
through Saturday morning. Low clouds/cigs are expected to develop
overnight into sunrise period to affect KSAT and KSSF with few hours
of MVFR (12Z-15Z time frame). Clouds will lift as mixing takes place
late Saturday morning with VFR conditions for the afternoon and
evening hours. Winds will be southeast and south 8 to 12 knots with
occasional gusts of 15 to 18 knots.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday)...Warm and dry conditions
continue this afternoon across South Central Texas. Heat index values
peaking late afternoon around 103-107 degrees south and east of the
escarpment. Isolated showers across Southeast Texas as well as the
eastern periphery of the monsoon across west Texas should remain out
of the area.

A Tutt low across the northern Gulf of Mexico will continue west
southwest tonight and Saturday into the northwest Gulf. The western
fringe of a pool of higher moisture across the northwest Gulf and
Southeast Texas will move into eastern areas of the CWA Saturday
afternoon through Sunday along with a broad mid level H7-H5 weakness.
Despite not being in the most favorable position of the Tutt, the
increased precipitable water values and mid level weakness should
allow for the development of isolated showers and thunderstorms
tomorrow afternoon and the eastern 1/3 of the CWA, possibly moving
inland into the I-35 corridor tomorrow evening before sunset as
indicated by the GFS.

A pocket of mid-level dry air from the south looks to move north into
the area Sunday afternoon and night. This should confine isolated
chances for showers and storms mainly to the northeast portions of
the CWA.

High temperatures look to be a degree or two cooler over the weekend
across central and eastern areas where height values are lower and
moisture higher. But still should see afternoon heat index values of
100-105 degrees outside of the Hill Country.

LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Eventually the Tutt broadens over the western Gulf and a an inverted
mid level trough across the Bay of Campeche moves northwest into
Mexico and South Texas. Some of the moisture on the periphery of this
system may skirt southern and eastern areas of the CWA Tuesday and
Wednesday. Otherwise continued warm conditions, with a possible
further warming trend late in the week and into next weekend as the
mid level becomes established over the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              77  99  77 100  76 /  -   10  10  20  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  76  98  77  99  76 /  -   10  10  20  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     75  98  76  99  75 /  10  10  20  10  10
Burnet Muni Airport            74  97  75  97  74 /  -   -   10  20  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           78 100  78 101  77 /   0   0   0  10   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        76  98  77  98  76 /   0  10  10  20  10
Hondo Muni Airport             75 100  76 101  75 /   0   0  10  10   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        76  98  76  99  76 /  10  10  20  20  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   77  96  77  98  77 /  10  30  20  20  -
San Antonio Intl Airport       77  99  77  99  77 /   0  -   20  10  -
Stinson Muni Airport           76  99  77 100  76 /  -   -   20  10   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...17
Synoptic/Grids...Hampshire
Public Service/Data Collection...Treadway



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