Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 210859
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
359 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
CLOUDY AND HUMID WITH PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ONGOING IN NORTH TEXAS
(PROXIMITY TO UPPER LOW) AND SOUTH TEXAS (LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK). THESE FEATURES ARE EARLY INDICATIONS OF
AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS TEXAS. NEARLY ALL LARGE SCALE AND
MESOSCALE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING TWO AREAS OF
CONVECTION BY MID-AFTERNOON...ONE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND A SECOND
ON THE SERRANIAS DEL BURRO (SDB) MOUNTAINS IN NORTHERN MEXICO.
THE SDB STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SUPERCELLS DUE TO GREATER
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...AND SUPERCELL MOTION VECTORS INDICATE THEY
WILL REMAIN NEAR THE TERRAIN OR MOVE SSE ON THE MEXICAN SIDE OF
THE RIO GRANDE. A FEW NON-SUPERCELLS MAY MAKE IT ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE...SO WE KEPT SMALL POPS ACROSS THE SWRN HALF OF THE AREA.

THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE EXPECTED PROPAGATION/DEVELOPMENT OF THE
NORTH TEXAS STORMS INTO THE HILL COUNTRY BY LATE AFTERNOON...THEN
INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY MID-EVENING AND COASTAL PLAINS BY LATE
EVENING. CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...NON-SATURATED MID-LEVELS...AND FAIRLY HIGH FREEZING LEVEL
AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS POINT TOWARD DAMAGING WINDS AS THE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...WITH LARGE HAIL AS A SECONDARY THREAT.
AGREE WITH SPC OUTLOOK THAT STORMS WILL LIKELY BE AN ILL-DEFINED
CLUSTER AS STORM OUTFLOWS MODIFY THE NEAR STORM ENVIRONMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
AFTER A DRY DAY TUESDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS
FEATURE...SO WE HAVE MAINTAINED LOW POPS...FIRST OUT WEST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
WARMING TREND DUE TO BUILDING HEIGHTS WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT THAT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS
A DEEP UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. THE RESULT FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS TO KEEP LOW
POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT WITH THE EXPECTATION THEY
WILL RISE AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME TO NEXT WEEKEND. ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS
OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND WESTERN EDWARDS PLATEAU DUE TO LOW
HUMIDITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              82  62  84  64  85 /  20  30  -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  83  61  84  62  85 /  20  30  -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     83  61  86  62  87 /  20  30  -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            81  63  81  63  84 /  30  40  -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           87  65  89  69  89 /  20  20  -   -   20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        81  64  82  64  84 /  20  40  -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             85  64  88  66  90 /  20  20  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        82  61  84  62  85 /  20  30  -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   81  61  84  63  85 /  20  20  10  -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       84  63  87  64  88 /  20  20  -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           85  63  88  64  90 /  20  20  -   10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...99
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26





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