Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 280309 AAB
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
909 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

.UPDATE...
WE HAVE MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER
OF TONIGHT. BASED ON RECENT RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS...WE HAVE
EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR VS. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. OTHERWISE...THE INHERITED
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK IN SHOWING MUCH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
ARE NOTED IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR
LIGHTNING WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST...SO WE/LL NOT MENTION IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. MINOR CHANGES WERE
ALSO MADE TO THE LATEST TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 601 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014/

AVIATION.../00Z TAF CYCLE/

KAUS AND KDRT ARE VFR WITH KSAT/KSSF REMAINING MVFR AS OF 00Z. KAUS
WILL GENERALLY STAY VFR THROUGH 07-08Z BUT PERIODS OF -RA COULD HELP
BRING CIGS BACK DOWN TO UPPER MVFR RANGE THEREAFTER THROUGH
28/18Z. EXPECT KSAT/KSSF TO STAY MVFR THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING
WITH VCSH AND THEN -RA EXPECTED LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES OVER THE REGION. KDRT SHOULD STAY
VFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT BUT THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF MVFR
CONDITIONS TOWARDS 13-16Z AND HAVE PLACED OVC030 IN KDRT TAF. KDRT
WILL GO VFR QUICKEST SUNDAY BY 18Z WITH KAUS/KSAT/KSSF FOLLOWING
THAT AFTERNOON AS SKIES FINALLY BEGIN TO CLEAR WEST TO EAST. A
BREAK FROM ANY LOWER CLOUD DECK WILL OCCUR SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH
ALL OF MONDAY.

WINDS CONTINUE TO BE SUSTAINED NEAR 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 18-24KT AS
OF 00Z. THIS WILL CONTINUE OVER NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE A
GRADUAL DECREASE TO SUSTAINED 10-15 KT, BUT PERIODIC GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z. WINDS WILL CALM FURTHER BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO
5-10 KT FROM THE NORTH.  /ALLEN/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
SHOWERS ARE WANING ACROSS THE AREA AS ONE IMPULSE LIFTS AWAY FROM
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NEW MEXICO INTO EASTERN
SONORA STATE IN MEXICO. EXPECT SHOWERS TO PICK UP AGAIN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO NEAR THE BIG BEND AND THEN
END FROM WEST TO EAST BY MIDDAY SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO
EASTERN TEXAS. SOME FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR A
BRIEF CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR WESTERN VAL VERDE
COUNTY FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS IN THAT
AREA. IF IT DOES CHANGE OVER...NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
CLOUD COVER WILL PREVENT ANY FREEZES TONIGHT. EXPECT MANY AREAS IN
THE HILL COUNTRY AND LOW LYING SPOTS ALONG THE ESCARPMENT TO HAVE
A FREEZE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING DUE TO NEARLY
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND
LOW DEWPOINTS.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA TO
THE YUKON DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW RETURNS ON MONDAY AS PRESSURES FALL IN
THE PLAINS LEADING TO A BRIEF WARMUP TO NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FORCES
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON TUESDAY.
MODELS HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY ON THE DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR THAT
MOVES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE GREAT BASIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES TO NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES ABOVE THE SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS LEADING TO
ISENTROPIC LIFT. RAIN CHANCES REDEVELOP LATE TUESDAY ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE AND SPREAD TO THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM
FRIDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY AND HAVE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THE FASTER GFS AND THE SLOWER ECMWF. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY AND END FRIDAY NIGHT. AS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER TYPE
PRECIPITATION...MODEL RUNS GOING BACK TO LAST NIGHT SHOW A
SHALLOWER DEPTH OF SUBFREEZING AIR MAKING FREEZING RAIN THE MOST
LIKELY TYPE IF TEMPERATURES GET BELOW FREEZING. A THREAT FOR
WINTER TYPE PRECIPITATION EXISTS OVER FAR NORTHERN PARTS AND
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
CURRENTLY...NO ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. WARMER AIR ALOFT
MIXES INTO THE LOWER LEVELS KEEPING THEM ABOVE FREEZING THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT MINIMAL DAILY TEMPERATURE RANGES
MID INTO LATE WEEK DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WITH READINGS
MAINLY WELL BELOW AVERAGE. OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS...MODELS HAVE
CHANGED WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE FEATURES FOR THIS COMING WEEK.
STAY TUNED FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY WITH
NEW YEARS EVE PLANNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              38  50  34  62  39 /  30  30   0   0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  38  51  29  62  36 /  40  30   0   0  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     39  53  31  63  38 /  40  30   0   0  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            34  50  32  61  36 /  20  20   0   0  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           39  56  35  62  41 /  10  -    0   0  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        36  50  31  62  35 /  30  30   0   0  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             39  56  30  64  38 /  30  10   0   0  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        38  51  31  63  37 /  40  30   0   0  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   40  50  33  62  39 /  50  50   0   0  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       40  55  34  64  40 /  40  20   0   0  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           40  55  34  64  41 /  40  20   0   0  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...15
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33







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