Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 081145
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
545 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS PASSING
THROUGH THE SKIES. SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
TODAY WITH NLY WINDS OF 12 TO 20 KTS GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KTS MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT AROUND 10 KTS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. SURFACE HIGH
DRIFTS TO ALONG THE RIO GRANDE TONIGHT WITH WINDS TURNING NWLY
AND DECREASING TO AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ALONG A DEL RIO TO HONDO TO AUSTIN LINE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD IN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TODAY...LEADING TO BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR EARLY FEBRUARY.
THE DRY AIR AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BRING INCREASING FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
MORE INFORMATION.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT. GIVEN LIGHT
WINDS...DRY AIR AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TONIGHT. A WARMING TREND IS IN
STORE FOR TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE ABOVE MENTIONED WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WORK WEEK. SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE LOW-LEVELS ALONG WITH A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
AID THE WARMING TREND. THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER WITH
THE STRENGTH AND SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT LATE
WEEK. WE/LL TEND TO SIDE WITH THE MORE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENT ECMWF
AND BRING THE FRONT IN FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A FEW
DEGREES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...BUT LIKELY TO REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE NORMAL. DUE TO LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE...WE HAVE
REMOVED ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY FOR COUNTIES
ALONG AND EAST OF A LLANO TO NEW BRAUNFELS TO KARNES CITY LINE.
THIS DOES INCLUDE THE AUSTIN METRO AREA. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY
NORTH WINDS AND MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS WILL CREATE
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR THE RAPID SPREAD OF FIRES.

ELSEWHERE...ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DUE TO MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              63  37  67  42  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  62  33  67  35  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     64  35  69  39  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            59  33  66  39  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           65  36  72  42  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        60  33  66  38  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             66  33  71  36  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        64  34  68  38  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   62  35  65  39  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       64  36  69  41  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           65  36  70  41  75 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24


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