Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 280751
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
251 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD STRONG...OR AT LEAST STRONG
ENOUGH...SO KEEPING PERSISTENT HOT AND DRY FORECAST FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. WILL REISSUE THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TALKING
ABOUT HIGH HEAT INDICES. RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER OK/AR DURING
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. PERSISTENCE ON TEMP FORECAST ALONG WITH THE
TREND OF PREDAWN CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...BURNING OFF
AND BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY BY THE AFTERNOONS. FARTHER TO THE EAST
OVER FLORIDA AND THE NORTHEAST GULF...A TROF AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL KEEP AREAS OF CONVECTION ONGOING. WHILE THAT IS NOT
AFFECTING US NOW...BY THE END OF THE WEEK...SOME IMPACT MAY BE
FELT HERE IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
STARTING ABOUT THURSDAY MODELS ARE SHOWING THE CENTER
OF THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING WEST INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND 4
CORNERS REGION.  AS THIS OCCURS...A SURGE IN PW IS FORECAST TO COME
IN FROM THE EAST AND NORTHERN GULF.  THE ABOVE MENTIONED TROF OVER
THE NE GULF WILL BE SENDING THIS HIGHER PW THIS GENERAL DIRECTION
AND MODELS ARE SHOWING IT ARRIVING ON FRIDAY.  WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND THE HIGHER PW VALUES...WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF SLIGHT TO
CHANCE POPS...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SATURDAY. AS THE END OF THE
WEEK NEARS...WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO TRACK THE PROGRESS OF THIS
MOISTURE SURGE AS IT PUSHES WEST AND 700 MB TROUGHING DEVELOPS SW
INTO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF.

WITH THE RIDGE AXIS WELL TO OUR WEST BY LATE THE WEEK...AND TROUGHING
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP N-NE FLOW
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. MODELS ARE EVEN
SHOWING SOME NE SFC WINDS. WE CANT REALLY CALL THIS A COLD FRONT
HOWEVER AS GUIDANCE IS ACTUALLY BRINGING THE HOTTEST TEMPS OF THE
SUMMER SO FAR AS THEY CALL FOR DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 50S AND
MAX TEMPS WELL ABOVE 100. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS PLAUSIBLE BUT A LOT
WILL DEPEND ON HOW DRY THE AIR IS ALONG WITH CLOUD COVER ETC.
GETTING ANY SORT OF NORTH WINDS THIS TIME OF YEAR DEFINITELY
BRINGS THE POTENTIAL OF VERY HOT TEMPS. STILL TOO MANY QUESTIONS
IN MY MIND TO TOTALLY BUY OFF ON IT YET...BUT WORTH WATCHING MODEL
TRENDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO SEE IF THIS DRY AIR SURGE WILL IN FACT
MAKE IT INTO THE CWA AND CAUSE A BIG JUMP IN TEMPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY             100  77 100  77  99 /   0   0   0   0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  97  73  98  75  99 /   0   0   0   0  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     99  77 100  77  99 /   0   0   0   0  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            97  75  98  76  99 /   0   0   0   0  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT          102  78 102  78 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        98  75  98  77  99 /   0   0   0   0  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             98  76  98  76  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        98  76  99  77  98 /   0   0   0   0  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   98  78  98  78  99 /   0   0   0   0  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       99  78  99  77  99 /   0   0   0   0  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           99  78  99  77  99 /   0   0   0   0  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...09



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