Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 221757 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1257 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT AREA TAF SITES THROUGH THE CURRENT
FORECAST PERIOD. WITH CONTINUED AFTERNOON HEATING...EXPECT FEW-SCT
CU FIELD WITH BASES GENERALLY 4-5K AGL. OTHERWISE...CAN/T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE WILL REMAIN LIMITED AND WE WILL NOT MENTION IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS DRIER
AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1051 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014/

UPDATE...
MO MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST. THE NORTH WINDS HAVE
MADE IT THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA...BUT THE ACTUAL DIFFERENTIATING
AIRMASS REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER
60S FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...BUT BEGIN TO FALL NORTH OF WACO.
THIS DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH. IN THE MEAN
TIME...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

HAMPSHIRE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT THESE ARE NOW MOSTLY ACROSS THE BORDER IN MEXICO.
MEANWHILE...THE WEAK COLD FRONT HAS MADE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS
HILLSBORO...WITH CONVECTION POPPING UP ABOUT 100 MILES BEHIND
FROPA. THE PRIMARY FORECAST ISSUE TODAY IS THE PROSPECT FOR
CONVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. BLENDED TPW IMAGERY SHOWS POOLING OF
PW IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE SURFACE FROPA...BUT ONLY TO 1.5 INCHES.
OTHERWISE...IT/S DRY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH PW IN THE 1-1.25 INCH
RANGE ACROSS OUR AREA. THE CONVECTION-ALLOWING MESOSCALE MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND DEPICT DEEP MOIST CONVECTION FIRING
BEHIND THE FRONT AROUND 21-22Z IN OUR AREA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
RAIN WILL BE IN A BAND 50 MILES EITHER SIDE OF I-10...BUT WE
DECIDED TO INCLUDE A GENERIC 20 PERCENT POP FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TO
ALLOW FOR TIMING UNCERTAINTY. LOW POPS WILL BE KEPT THROUGH 06Z
FOR THE COASTAL AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS...BUT OTHERWISE DRY AIR WILL
PUSH INTO THE AREA.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN LOW HUMIDITY WITH COOL NIGHTS AND MILD
AFTERNOONS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WE SHAVED A DEGREE OR TWO OFF
MODEL CONSENSUS LOWS AND ADDED A DEGREE OR TWO TO HIGHS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE DRY ATMOSPHERE...WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE A LARGE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGE.

THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR TO POOR AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE...WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN SIMILAR...AND THE GFS MOST
CONSISTENT RUN-TO-RUN...WHILE THE ECMWF IS UNSETTLED. THE MODEL/S
DEPICTION OF A CUT-OFF LOW RANGE FROM CENTERED OVER TEXAS TO CENTERED
OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF. DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES...THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT GULF RETURN FLOW ONLY GETS WEAKLY RE-ESTABLISHED. THE
BEST COMBINATION OF MOIST AIR AND LIFT WILL BE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...SO LOW POPS WERE INCLUDED FOR THOSE PERIODS. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT A SLOW RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              90  64  85  64  86 /  20  10  -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  90  64  85  61  85 /  20  10  -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     92  67  88  64  89 /  20  10  -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            89  64  86  62  86 /  20  10  -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           89  70  87  69  85 /  20  20  -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        90  63  85  63  86 /  20  10  -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             94  69  91  67  91 /  20  10  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        90  65  86  63  86 /  20  10  -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   92  67  86  64  88 /  20  10  -   -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       93  70  89  67  88 /  20  10  -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           94  70  89  67  88 /  20  10  -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...29
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12





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