Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 311123
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
623 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 12Z TAF PERIOD...
MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AT KSAT/KSSF BUT SHOULD IMRPOVE TO VFR IN
THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECTING SOME ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE REGION BUT STILL LOW CONFIDENCE ON
IMPACTS TO THE TERMINALS. BEST SHOT AT DEVELOPMENT WILL BE WELL
SOUTHEAST OF KSAT BUT SOME AFTERNOON AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED IF
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS FARTHER NORTHWEST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 207 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY & TONIGHT)...WV IMAGERY IS CLEARLY SHOWING
MOISTURE CIRCULATING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS DUE TO THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTER. SINCE NIGHTFALL...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND
SUBSIDENCE HAS SUPPRESSED RAIN ACTIVITY. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS FILTERING IN FROM THE COAST AND WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN MORNING STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IN THE MORNING.

DURING THE DAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD BRINGING
IN BOTH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND DRY AIR...AND AN
ENHANCEMENT IN UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT COUPLED WITH DECENT INSTABILITY
IN THE SOUTHEAST. MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST WITH THE ISSUE BEING HOW FAR
INLAND IT WILL REACH. WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW LIKELY AT OR
AROUND SAN ANTONIO BY MID DAY WHEN CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WOULD BE
REACHED...THINK THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA HAS A SHOT AT SOME ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...AND A PREFERENCE TO THE BETTER
CONDITIONS IN THE COASTAL PLAINS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON OF
PWATS OF AOA 1.6 INCHES WITH AN UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT AND STRONG
LAPSE RATES TO 700 MB NEAR SAN ANTONIO. HOWEVER...ABOVE 600 MB...NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL GROWTH POTENTIAL. FARTHER
SOUTHEAST...ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO SIMILAR CONDITIONS
NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH.

CONVECTION SHOULD AGAIN DROP OFF AT OR JUST AFTER 00Z AND WITH
BETTER NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE...INCREASING STRATUS AGAIN APPEARS
LIKELY IN THE MORNING HOURS.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...ON TUESDAY THE ELONGATED
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL STRETCH FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS SOUTHWEST INTO
THE COASTAL PLAINS OF SOUTH TEXAS. MOISTURE AND CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY ACROSS THE CWA WILL BE CONFINED CLOSER
TO THIS AXIS...RUNNING THROUGH THE EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE SOME STORMS COULD DEVELOP INTO THE I-35
CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NUDGES FARTHER EAST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
TOWARDS THE TX/LA BORDER...WITH MAINLY ISOLATED POPS CONFINED
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA.

ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE GFS RETROGRADES THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO
THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO NORTHERN
MEXICO...BENEATH THE RIDGE SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SLIGHT HIGHER PWAT AIRMASS ADVECTS IN FROM THE GULF INTO SOUTH-
CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THIS TIME. THIS COULD BRING SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS FARTHER WEST INTO THE
I-35 CORRIDOR AND HILL COUNTRY. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY CONTINUES TO SLIDE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE EAST
THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH WHILE...INDICATING WEAK RIDGING AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. A FEW GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
ARE ALSO FARTHER EAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. FOR NOW HAVE
INDICTED LOW ISOLATED POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FARTHER WEST...BUT
THIS IS LOW CONFIDENCE.

TEMPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM GENERALLY WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF
CLIMO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              94  74  94  74  95 /  20  -   20  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  94  71  93  71  94 /  20  -   20  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     95  72  95  73  95 /  20  -   20  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            93  71  93  72  93 /  20  -   -   -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           97  74  97  75  96 /  10  -   -    0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        94  72  93  73  93 /  20  -   10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             95  71  95  72  94 /  20  -   10  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        93  72  93  72  93 /  20  -   20  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   94  73  93  73  94 /  20  10  30  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       94  74  94  75  94 /  20  -   20  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           95  74  95  74  95 /  20  -   20  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TB3
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...RUNYEN


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