Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 051148
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
648 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED IN AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO WHILE DRT ONLY
HAS HIGHER CLOUDS. AT THIS POINT I THINK CIGS WILL NOT GET ANY
LOWER THIS MORNING. CIGS WE HAVE SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH THE REST
OF THE MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING AROUND NOON. WINDS
WILL PICK UP TO AROUND 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CIGS WILL RETURN
AGAIN TONIGHT IN AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO EVENTUALLY DROPPING TO
IFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM MEXICO INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
A SURFACE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE EASTERN RIDGE IS A LITTLE STRONGER AND
MOISTURE IS A LITTLE LESS WITH PWS OF 1.4 TO 1.7 INCHES. ONLY A
FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS WITH THE SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. A MID
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ERODES THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BACK INTO MEXICO ON
MONDAY WHILE THE EASTERN RIDGE BUILDS A LITTLE MORE INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. THE TROUGH BRINGS SLIGHTLY INCREASED MOISTURE WITH
PWS NEAR 1.8 INCHES ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND LOWER PECOS
VALLEY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THAT
AREA MAINLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS OVER WESTERN TEXAS MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. UPWARD FORCING BY THE TROUGH ON
DEEPER MOISTURE WITH PWS NEAR 1.8 INCHES WILL GENERATE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU TO
PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE. OVER THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...SUBSIDENCE AND CAPPING WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND PWS
FALLING TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST. THE
TROUGH LIFTS NORTH WEDNESDAY WITH THE EASTERN RIDGE BUILDING WEST
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. PWS DROP TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES ENDING THE
POPS OUT WEST AS WELL. THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER TEXAS WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE...CAPPING WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
AIRMASS WITH PWS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND
BRINGING NO RAIN. A VERY SLOW WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED AS LOWER
LEVEL THICKNESSES AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES INCREASE WHILE
SOIL MOISTURE ONLY VERY SLOWLY DECREASES. HOWEVER...NO 100 DEGREE
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              92  76  92  76  93 /  10  -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  91  74  92  75  92 /  10  -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     90  75  93  75  93 /  10  -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            91  74  91  74  90 /  10  -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           93  76  94  77  94 /  10  -   -   10  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        92  76  93  76  91 /  10  -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             91  74  92  75  92 /  10  -   -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        90  75  92  75  91 /  10  -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   91  76  92  77  92 /  10  -   -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       92  77  92  76  92 /  10  -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           92  76  92  76  92 /  10  -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04



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