Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 272318
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
618 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW. OVERALL CHANCES
OF CONVECTION ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE CURRENT TAF PACKAGE
BUT MAY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED AT A LATER TIME. MVFR...THEN IFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO VFR BY EARLY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES ARE SHOWING SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
ACROSS THE REGION INCLUDING THE ONE THAT HELPED STORMS TO FIRE UP
ACROSS BLANCO AND TRAVIS COUNTIES MID MORNING. THERE ARE STILL
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON GOING ACROSS WESTERN LLANO COUNTY AS THEY
SLOWLY PUSH TO THE NORTH. THIS ACTIVITY MAY COME TO AN END WITHIN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...LATER THIS EVENING...A LINE OR
COMPLEX OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
PUSHING WEST ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS...AHEAD OF A DRY-LINE OVER WEST
TEXAS AND NORTH OF THE REMNANT OF THIS MORNING SURFACE/OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME...SOME HIRES MODELS AND THE 12Z GFS
SOLUTION CONTINUE TO INDICATE CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS AND PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY FOR THIS
EVENING. LATEST HRRR IS SHOWING CONVECTION NORTH OF BURNET AND
LLANO COUNTIES EARLY THIS EVENING BUT DISSIPATE ACTIVITY AROUND 8
OR 9 PM. LATEST ECM SOLUTION IS NOT SHOWING PRECIP ACROSS OUR AREA
THROUGH THE FIRST PERIOD. WITH ALL OF THESE DISAGREEMENTS IN
PLACE...WE DECIDED TO GO WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS WHICH
SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE NORTHERN PART OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT. ALSO...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 7 AM
THURSDAY. THIS DECISION HAS BEEN MADE BASED ON GOING FLOOD ISSUES
ACROSS THE AREA AND THE LITTLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL THAT WILL TAKE
FOR AREAS TO FLOOD IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. AS A REMINDER...WE
HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE ON TONIGHT`S RAIN DUE TO POOR AGREEMENT
BETWEEN MODELS.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...OUR CONFIDENCE INCREASE AS
MODELS AGREE ON BRINGING A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS
THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS. HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY
AND FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS AREA
ROADS...UNDERPASSES...POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...AND SMALL CREEKS. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH COULD BE ISSUED FOR AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 83
LATER TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH A DRIER TREND EXPECTED FOR NEXT
WEEK. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AND BRING DRIER AND WARMER DAYS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              71  87  72  85  70 /  40  40  40  40  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  70  86  72  85  70 /  40  40  40  40  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  87  73  85  70 /  30  40  30  40  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            70  85  71  82  68 /  40  40  50  40  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           74  88  70  86  72 /  30  30  60  20  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        71  86  72  84  69 /  40  40  40  40  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  87  73  85  70 /  20  40  40  40  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        72  86  72  84  69 /  30  40  30  40  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   73  87  74  85  71 /  20  40  30  40  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       74  87  74  85  71 /  20  30  40  40  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           74  87  74  86  72 /  20  30  30  40  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BASTROP...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...GILLESPIE...HAYS...
LEE...LLANO...TRAVIS...WILLIAMSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...OAKS
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH



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