Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 021502
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1002 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

WE WILL EXTEND THUNDER CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH
SOME WEAK CAPE AND STRONG FORCING. WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE FAR WEST...AND LIKELY REACH ADVISORY LEVELS LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY FOR ALL BUT THE FAR EAST. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR ANY SNOW POTENTIAL LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH VERY
COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE AREA BEHIND POTENT COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE DAKOTAS TO NM. SECONDARY TROUGH
OVER SASK. BROAD AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS ENTIRE GREAT PLAINS
WITH A SECONDARY HEIGHT FALL OVER SASK. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS OVER THE SASK/ALTA BORDER WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
JET NOSING INTO MT. UPPER LEVEL LOW FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE
MN ARROWHEAD FRI WHILE UPPER LEVEL JET DIGS ON THE WEST SIDE OF
TROUGH. MODELS ARE A LITTLE FARTHER EAST TODAY THAN YESTERDAY RUNS.

700 HPA THETA-E BOUNDARY WAS OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES TODAY AND WILL
SHIFT EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS ANEMIC. WILL ADD LOW POPS IN THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES FOR TODAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER BETWEEN THREE QUARTERS
AND ONE INCH OVER EASTERN ZONES AND WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY. COLD
FRONT OVER SOUTHERN SASK WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WILL FOLLOW. 30 TO 40 MPH GUSTS CAN BE
EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...00Z MODELS INDICATE THAT NOT MUCH CHANGE WILL
OCCUR IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEST COAST
TROUGH AND EAST COAST RIDGE WILL PLACE THE REGION IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...WITH A HUDSON BAY LOW POSSIBLY RETROGRADING AND LEADING TO
SHOWER CHANCES MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN BELOW
NORMAL...BUT REBOUND AS THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES SOME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

HIGH THIN CLOUDS WERE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. MVFR TO VFR CIGS WERE
LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ZONES AND APPEAR TO BE MOVING EAST.
ALSO PATCHY FOG WAS LOCATED OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. FOG
LOOP INDICATED THE FOG WAS VERY SLOWLY MOVING TO THE WEST. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY. SOME MVFR CIGS MAY BE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...HOPPES
AVIATION...HOPPES





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