Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 281158
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
658 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Forecast highlights through early next week: Periodic widespread
showers/storms late this afternoon through early Thursday with
locally heavy rain likely, and possibly again this weekend into
early next week.

Areas of fog may impact locations generally west of I-135 early
this morning, and especially central Kansas. Locally dense fog is
possible.

A strong, slow-moving storm system will impact Mid-America the
next few days, supporting periodic showers/thunderstorms from late
this afternoon through early Thursday. The greatest potential for
concentrated heavy rainfall rates will be this evening and
tonight, and possibly extending through Wednesday as well, when
the most favorable combination of large scale ascent, frontal
lift, warm advection, moisture transport and instability will be
present. Given the likely progressive nature of the convection,
widespread flooding appears unlikely, although the threat for
localized high water issues will be a threat, along with modest
rises in area streams/creeks/rivers. At this point though
widespread river flooding is not expected either. The severe
weather threat should remain fairly low throughout the event,
although could see a handful of strong to marginally severe storms
capable of dime- quarter size hail over mainly southern/southeast
Kansas this evening-tonight, and again Wednesday afternoon-
evening in the vicinity of the frontal zone. Widespread storm-
total rainfall amounts through early Thursday will likely be in
the 1-2" range, with locally higher amounts up to 4" probable,
depending on where the heaviest convection tracks.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Another storm system is expected to impact the region with
additional rain/storms this weekend into early next week. However,
confidence on the evolution and timing of this storm system
beyond the Four Corners region is highly uncertain given the large
spread in GFS ensemble member 500mb heights. Rain is likely, but
how much or how heavy is yet to be seen.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 638 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

IFR conditions still probable at the RSL and GBD terminals early
this morning, in association with hybrid radiation/moisture
advection fog. Otherwise, MVFR stratus should linger for much of
today in easterly low-level upslope regime. Scattered showers are
possible along/west of Interstate 135 this afternoon given
isentropic lift/moisture advection.

Very focused, strong moisture transport will occur northward into
central/eastern Kansas tonight, on the nose of a strong low-level
jet. Combined with upper level divergent flow pattern, this will
result in numerous clusters of showers/thunderstorms, with storms
most likely in south-central/southeast KS where elevated
instability is progged. Expecting MVFR conditions to deteriorate
to IFR/LIFR tonight, as boundary layer humidity and convergence
increases, especially in central/south-central Kansas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 331 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Breezy east winds may support pockets of low-end very high
grassland fire danger across the region this afternoon. However,
suspect the limiting factor will be increasing cloud cover and
marginal afternoon humidity values in the 50s-60s percent.
Otherwise, periodic rain chances along with cooler temperatures
should support low fire danger levels the next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    61  53  62  44 /  30  90  80  50
Hutchinson      58  50  54  43 /  50  90  80  60
Newton          58  50  58  42 /  20  90  80  60
ElDorado        60  52  63  44 /  10  90  80  60
Winfield-KWLD   65  55  67  46 /  20  90  80  50
Russell         53  46  48  39 /  70  90  80  70
Great Bend      51  47  48  40 /  70  90  80  60
Salina          56  49  51  42 /  30  90  90  70
McPherson       57  50  53  42 /  40  90  90  60
Coffeyville     67  57  70  50 /  10  90  80  60
Chanute         62  54  68  49 /  10  90  90  70
Iola            61  53  66  49 /  10  90  80  70
Parsons-KPPF    65  56  70  50 /  10  90  80  70

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...JMC
FIRE WEATHER...ADK



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