Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 041115
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
615 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEKEND FOCUS AROUND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY- WEDNESDAY EVENING...COOLER
TEMPERATURES TODAY...AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH LATE
WEEK/WEEKEND.

TODAY-TONIGHT:

ANTICIPATING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO INCREASE FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING...IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING 850-700MB
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. CONSEQUENTLY...WENT LIKELY POPS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTH-
CENTRAL KS ALONG/WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS BY MID-LATE MORNING.
THESE CHANCES SHOULD SHIFT PRIMARILY INTO EAST/SOUTHEAST KS FOR
THE AFTERNOON. ALL- IN-ALL...THIS ELEVATED ACTIVITY THIS MORNING-
AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN BELOW STRONG/SEVERE LEVELS DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY/POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS MAY PROMOTE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST KS WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. EXPECTED MOVEMENT
WOULD ALLOW THIS ACTIVITY TO POTENTIALLY CLIP CENTRAL KS THIS
EVENING...WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF KS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...AS ADDITIONAL UPPER ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST PRODUCES STRONG 850-700MB WARM/MOIST ADVECTION.
INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES MAY PROMOTE A HANDFUL OF ADDITIONAL STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY:

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY EXIT EASTERN KS
WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO
SOUTHEAST KS BY PEAK HEATING. AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY SHOULD PROMOTE AT LEAST ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS OVER SOUTHEAST KS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON-
EVENING. DEGREE OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBO AS ADVERTISED BY THE
NAM/GFS MAY PROMOTE ISOLATED HIGHER-END SEVERE WEATHER.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD FINALLY EXIT THE REGION THURSDAY.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

FRIDAY-MONDAY:

A PERSISTENT/BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TURNING ABOVE NORMAL BY
LATE WEEK- WEEKEND. MID-UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S APPEAR REASONABLE AT
THIS TIME. THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
CONUS IN CONCERT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A SERIES OF QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONES ORIENTED WEST-EAST ACROSS THE REGION
SHOULD PROMOTE PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM LATE WEEK INTO
AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF KS
AND NEBRASKA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON-OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
ALOFT MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AT TIMES...THOUGH FOR NOW WILL JUST
CARRY VCTS AND AMEND AS NEEDED WHEN WINDOWS FOR CONVECTION
BECOME MORE EVIDENT/IMMINENT. WHILE VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL MUCH OF THE TIME...A PERIOD OR TWO OF
MVFR AND IFR CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND NEAR ANY CONVECTION.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    83  69  92  72 /  60  50  30  10
HUTCHINSON      83  68  92  70 /  50  50  20  10
NEWTON          82  68  89  70 /  60  60  40  10
ELDORADO        83  68  90  70 /  60  60  40  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   83  69  92  72 /  60  60  30  20
RUSSELL         84  68  91  69 /  40  50  10  10
GREAT BEND      84  68  92  70 /  40  50  10  10
SALINA          84  68  91  70 /  50  50  30  10
MCPHERSON       82  68  91  70 /  50  50  30  10
COFFEYVILLE     87  70  90  72 /  60  60  60  30
CHANUTE         88  69  88  70 /  70  70  60  30
IOLA            88  69  87  69 /  70  70  60  30
PARSONS-KPPF    88  70  89  71 /  60  70  60  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$



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