Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KOUN 252036
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
336 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A sharp dryline will remain in place across the Texas panhandle
for the next few days. Strong moisture advection will continue
ahead of the dry line across our forecast area, with very
unstable air aloft. However, a strong capping inversion in place
could inhibit any TSRA for this evening. Guidance is persistent
with the capping in place, and latest aircraft soundings
indicating the capping strength is even stronger than guidance. As
a result, will keep TSRA pops very low across our west. However,
if anything would develop into the evening hours, isolated
supercell thunderstorms would be possible.

The more likely timing for thunderstorms developing just ahead of
the dryline would be Thursday afternoon. For now, latest NAM
guidance places a weak inversion cap across far northern Oklahoma,
leaving everything to the south un-capped and prime for convection
breaking out. WRF guidance suggesting convection beginning across
western Oklahoma early afternoon, and advance eastward to near
I-35 by late afternoon as we continue to heat. With mu CAPE values
near 4000 j/kg, large damaging hail up to baseballs and severe
wind gusts would be possible under these storm cells. By late
Thursday into Friday, an advancing upper low across the southern
high plains will shift into western Kansas, moving our storms into
southeast Oklahoma toward the early morning hours of Saturday. As
Saturday progresses, the dryline should push across our area and
start drying us out.

In the extended, sfc moisture will make a quick return across our
area beginning Sunday and into next week. A series of shortwave
troughs digging through will reintroduce low pops through day 7.
For now, both GFS and ECMWF keep us quite wet into next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  71  84  66  81 /  20  40  40  30
Hobart OK         69  87  65  84 /  10  60  30  20
Wichita Falls TX  72  88  64  85 /  20  60  60  40
Gage OK           64  89  60  84 /   0  40  20  20
Ponca City OK     72  85  66  80 /  20  50  50  40
Durant OK         72  82  66  78 /  20  50  60  70

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

30/68



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.