Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 290753
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
353 AM EDT Thu Jun 29 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure brings warmer and more humid southwest flow today
through Saturday. Cold front approaches Saturday and becomes
stationary just north of the area through mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 350 AM Thursday...

Surface high pressure remains anchored off of the middle
Atlantic coast this period. This brings a low level south to
southwest flow of warmer and more humid air, bringing the main
jump in surface dew points first thing this morning, as values
climb from the 50s to the 60s. This introduces instability by
this afternoon with up to 1/5 kj/kg skinny CAPE west of the Ohio
River and up to about 1 kj//kg east of the Ohio River. 0-6 km
bulk shear only reaches 25 although the 0-8 km bulk shear is
progged to approach 40 kts.

Upper level short wave trough associated with the convective
complex over the midwest early this morning rides north of the
area this afternoon, although corfidi vectors do suggest a right
turn, which would bring convection closer to the forecast area
from the north. With little to no forcing otherwise, and the mid
levels remaining dry, opted to leave the chance for thunder out
of the forecast for today.

An upper level short wave ridge crosses tonight, in the wake of
the aforementioned trough, keeping the weather dry. The south to
southwest flow, progged to 25 kts above the boundary layer as is
the case this morning per VAD, will again prevent fog from
forming tonight.

Blended guidance and previous forecast looked good for the
higher temperatures and dew points on the way in.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Thursday...

Southwest flow with a high pressure to the east and south will
result in mostly clear Friday morning. Then, models suggest
unstable conditions with sfc CAPE exceeding 1500 J/Kg, moisture
with pwats around 1.75 inches and weak deep layered shear.
Expect afternoon convection with these parameters chance of
showers lowlands and likely higher elevations, some showers with
heavy rain possible.


A cold front approaches slowly from the west Saturday. Models show
higher afternoon CAPE, deep layered shear and pwats around 1.75
inches. Expect better chances for showers and storms as the front
becomes stationary just north of the area through the
weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 AM Thursday...

Weather conditions remain unsettled as the stationary front
weakens north of the area under weak flow. Otherwise, high
pressure emerges from the south to take control of the weather
conditions through the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 210 AM Thursday...

VFR weather in light southwest flow with high pressure anchored
off of the middle Atlantic coast. There will be a patchy, high
stratocu deck Thursday afternoon and night, and high clouds
coming off convective complexes upstream.

Strengthening southwest flow aloft overnight will prevent fog
formation overnight and Thursday night, but did carry a TEMPO
for MVFR at EKN overnight as they may remain decoupled.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR in TEMPO group for EKN overnight may
not happen. If it were to form and actually go IFR, that would
be rather brief given less than 30 min of IFR Wednesday
morning.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              THU 06/29/17
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms on Saturday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...TRM



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