Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KRLX 232316
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
716 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid weather continues through the weekend. Weak
disturbance drops south today. Weak front drops through Monday
night lingering into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Update...
No major changes this evening as the heat slowly wanes...but
plenty of low 90s still to be had across the CWA lowlands.
Convection largely remaining to the north of the area with the
front across the PBZ CWA...and down along the KY/VA border.

Previous Discussion...
Weak ripple aloft may kick off an isolated thundershower this
afternoon, but expect this to me more miss than hit. Latest
guidance keeps most of this activity just north of our CWA. If
they do develop, they should come to an end late evening, with
just some clouds lingering overnight.

Afternoon temperatures expected to top 90 degrees across much of
the lowlands today. Combined with dewpoints in the low 70s, heat
indices will climb above 100 degrees, so no changes planned to
ongoing heat advisory.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A weak cold front along with an elongating s/w trof will approach
later on Monday with convection chances increasing across the
area. As this features approach...the upper ridge will flatten as
the overall pattern turns more zonal with generally weak flow
through the atmosphere. Torrential downpours with the potential
for a bit of training will have to be monitored for localized
flooding concerns but it would take over 2 inches in an hour to
cause issues.

With the front meandering thru at least the S zones Tuesday...have
kept some higher pops for the afternoon and evening hours on
Tuesday. The front finally gets a nudge to the S by Wednesday
with mid level drying spreading into the area keeping afternoon
shra/tsra chances confined over S WV/SW VA in the better moisture.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The front finally gets a nudge to the S by Wednesday
with mid level drying spreading into the area keeping afternoon
shra/tsra chances confined over S WV/SW VA in the better moisture. This
front dissolves on Thursday as the next s/w trof and surface low
approach with another uptick in shra/tsra coverage during the
afternoon and lingering into Friday across the mountains.

Temps will gradually ease back closer to normal levels
midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Will continue with the valley fog again tonight after 03Z based on
what happened last night and supported by the MAV and LAMP
guidance for the area terminals. Thus...expecting clear sky
conditions as well with a calm wind.

Expecting daytime cumulus above 4kft with isolated convection on
Sunday...with prevailing VFR.

CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog timing/intensity may vary from forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
EDT 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
IFR possible in thunderstorms late Monday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>029.
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW/30
NEAR TERM...JW/26
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...26


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.