Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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805
FXUS61 KRLX 170834
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
334 AM EST Sun Dec 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak system brings spotty light precipitation today and tonight.
Cold fronts cross Tuesday and again late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 315 AM Sunday...

Dampening wave coming out of the central plains this morning
flattens almost completely, as it scoots quickly across the
area today. The system was drawing low level moisture northward
through the lower Mississippi Valley early this morning, and
will then draw it eastward across the Tennessee and Ohio
valleys today, and into the forecast area tonight.

Very dry low and mid level air initially, and then
upper level warming and drying reducing crystal growth later,
spell very light precipitation that has difficulty reaching the
ground initially, and then tends toward drizzle later on.

Model soundings and guidance grids show surface temperatures
near freezing in the northern mountains tonight, with an
isothermal layer near freezing all the way through h7, as the
cloud top lowers to h85 overnight. Freezing drizzle, very light
freezing rain and / or sleet will be spotty, and barely if at
all measure, even with upslope effects applied to a NAM and WRF
QPF blend.

A blend of MAV, MET, NAM and short term consensus was employed
for temperatures, which flat line overnight after a modest
evening drop, and then rise a bit in the mountains toward dawn
Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 320 AM Sunday...

Weak disturbance crossing to the north on Monday, along with
saturated low levels, will result in areas of drizzle, or
perhaps very light rain, along with plenty of cloud cover on
Monday into Monday night. Went ahead and put a mention of this
in weather grids everywhere for Monday, as felt it cannot be
completely ruled out even in southern zones. Otherwise, mainly
dry for Tuesday, as high pressure takes hold, however, may still
have some areas of light showers or even drizzle Tuesday and
Tuesday night, as a weak cold front moves through the area.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 330 AM Sunday...

Extended period starts out mainly quiet. There will still be a
slight chance for showers across the far south on Wednesday as a
system skirts by to our south. Otherwise, Thursday and most of Friday
look to be dry, however, another system will approach the area
by the weekend. The models are coming into better agreement with
the timing and path of the system, although lots of uncertainty
still exists. But at this point, have coded generally rain to
start, with snow developing for Saturday afternoon as the cold
front pushes east through the area.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1255 AM Sunday...

A weakening upper level wave will streak quickly across the area
Sunday, bringing some light rain. However, the low levels are so
dry, and the system will be moving so fast, that much of the
rain will not reach the ground at first, and the rain does does
is not likely to cause aviation restrictions.

The system pulls east of the area Sunday night, ending the
chance for rain, except in and near the mountains, where there
may be MVFR stratocu. Otherwise, with so little rainfall
expected, the chance for low cloud and fog forming Sunday night
is low.

Surface flow will be light south to southwest, beneath mainly
light southwest flow aloft.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Formation of MVFR stratocu Sunday night
may vary. Fog may start to form late Sunday night, especially
if it rains more than expected.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         SUN 12/17/17
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR in light rain and stratus at times overnight Sunday night
through Monday night.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM



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