Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 060215
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1015 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW BRINGS COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO
FRIDAY. WARM FRONT SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1015 PM...HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS APPEAR TO BE DOING A BIT BETTER
NOW THAN EARLIER THIS EVENING. UPDATED POPS USING A HRRR/HI-RES
NAM BLEND...WITH BULK OF PRECIP SINKING SOUTH TONIGHT. DRIED
THINGS OUT A BIT MORE ACROSS THE WEST...AND WENT WITH A PERIOD
WITH NO LIKELY POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHER POPS COME BACK IN
AROUND SUNRISE IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... MODELS HAVE THE BROAD AND COLD
UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY OVER EXTREME EASTERN TENNESSEE...ROTATING
EASTWARD INTO NORTH CAROLINA EARLY TONIGHT...THEN LIFTING ALMOST
DUE NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL VIRGINIA LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS
WILL KEEP THE REGION UNDER A BROAD AND MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW FOR
MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER TONIGHT. ON FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE FAR ENOUGH EAST
TO KEEP MOST SHOWERS CONFINED TO EASTERN WV. ENOUGH DRIER AIR WILL
WORK INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND WESTERN WV
BEHIND THE UPPER LOW ON ON FRIDAY TO BRING SOME AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE. TRENDS IN THE HEAVY BANDS OF PRECIP ROTATING AROUND THE
UPPER LOW KEEP IT MOSTLY TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST THIS PERIOD...WITH
PERHAPS ONLY POCAHONTAS AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES LEFT TO KEEP AN EYE
ON POTENTIAL WATER PROBLEMS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPON EXIT OF THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW...A WARM FRONT...FOLLOWED
QUICKLY BY THE NEXT COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH...WILL BRING THE NEXT
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SATURDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. WILL SEE SOME INSTABILITY INCREASES BACK IN THE WARM SECTOR
OF THE AIRMASS...AND THE MORNING SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK HAS GENERAL
STORMS CREEPING BACK INTO THE LOWLAND AREAS WITH THAT FRONTAL
SYSTEM.

FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THINK WE NEED TO BE CAREFUL OF THE LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT ARRIVAL.
KEEP THESE ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE HEADING INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE LATE WEEKEND/START OF WORKWEEK.
HOWEVER...THIS DOES LITTLE TO CHANGE THE OVERALL PATTERN. THE NEXT
SYSTEM IS RIGHT ON ITS HEELS. ONCE AGAIN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER SOGGY WEEK. WITH CLOUD COVER
AROUND...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TYPICALLY BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AREA OF PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY DRIFTING SOUTH ACROSS WV. MIX OF
MVFR AND IFR EXPECTED IN THIS...BUT VERY DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
EXACT TIMING. EASTERN SITES SHOULD HAVE IFR CEILINGS TAKE OVER
TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO THE MORNING. SOMEWHAT CONCERNED ABOUT
POTENTIAL DENSE FOG FORMATION WHERE THERE HAS BEEN SOME RAIN THIS
EVENING...BUT SOME FLOW REMAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL WHICH
COULD HOLD THE FOG OFF. SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS FROM
WEST TO EAST TOMORROW...WITH MVFR LINGERING IN THE MOUNTAINOUS
COUNTIES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF WRAPAROUND SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS MAY VARY. ALSO COULD GET SOME FOG OVERNIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            FRI 05/06/16
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH UPPER LEVEL COULD CONTINUE TO BRING MVFR
AND IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV/MZ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JB
AVIATION...MZ


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