Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 250239
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
939 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER AWAY TONIGHT.  NEXT CLIPPER APPROACHES
SUNDAY AND MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.  THE COLD PARADE
CONTINUES WITH CLIPPERS THURSDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL PRODUCE LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT. OUT OF
THESE CLOUDS...VERY LIGHT PCPN WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE OR
VERY LIGHT SNOW. WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 32 DEGREES...PERIODS OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO
AND WEST VIRGINIA. UPDATED WEATHER GRIDS TO ADD FREEZING DRIZZLE
TO THE FORECAST. ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL LEAD TO A TRACE OF ICE IF
ANY. THIS ACTIVITY COULD LAST THROUGH 9 AM SUNDAY MORNING.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY BRINGING SNOW TO THE AREA. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
ACCUMULATION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SE OHIO AND THE CNTRL WV
MOUNTAINS WHERE A COUPLE OF INCHES COULD FALL. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
SOMETHING SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW TODAY...AN INCH OR LESS MOST
PLACES.

COOLED TEMPS A TAD AND BROUGHT THE SNOW IN A LITTLE EARLIER BASED
ON MODEL CONSENSUS...REGARDLESS MOST OF THE MOISTURE IN THE SOUTH
SHOULD FALL AS RAIN BEFORE SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLOSE TO WPC THINKING WITH POSITIVE PNA THIS PERIOD.  CLIPPER
SYSTEMS REINFORCE THE COLD AIR JUST PRIOR TO THE START OF THE
PERIOD...AND THEN AGAIN THU-THU NT AND SAT NT.  THE ONE JUST PRIOR
TO THE START OF THE PERIOD IS PROGGED TO EVOLVE INTO A SIZABLE AND
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING STORM SYSTEM OFF THE E COAST MON-TUE.

HIGH PRESSURE CUTS OFF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST
CLIPPER TUE NT...AND THEN SAILS ACROSS ON WED.  WARMING ALOFT WED
MAY NOT BE REALIZED AT GROUND UNTIL THU...IN THE SRLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE SECOND CLIPPER.  THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO PROVIDE A GOOD BUT
BRIEF UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT THU NT.  WHILE STILL AT A DISTANCE WHERE
THE MODELS ARE STILL IN FLUX...THE WEEKEND SYSTEM MAY BE MORE
INTERESTING THAN JUST A CLIPPER.

LITTLE CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO TEMPERATURES WHICH WERE CLOSE TO WPC.
THE GFS40 WAS EMPLOYED THU MORNING AND SAT MORNING...THE BETTER
RADIATIVE COOLING NTS.  THE FAST MOVING SYSTEMS IN THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE CREATE BUST POTENTIAL IN THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CURRENT MVFR CEILINGS ABOUT 1000 FEET AT PKB AND CKB COULD BECOME
IFR ABOUT 800 FEET THROUGH MIDNIGHT. RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOWING LIGHT ECHOS AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST OH
THROUGH 03Z. THESE CLOUDS WILL BE PRODUCING IFR CEILINGS AT
PKB...CKB AND EKN OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT ESPECIALLY AT CKB AND EKN
THROUGH 12Z. IN FACT...THE SREF MODEL SUPPORT THESE SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO LOW VFR ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY...SOUTHWEST VA...AND SOUTHERN WV AFTER 14Z SUNDAY...WITH
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO...
NORTHERN WV...AND WV MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: REDEVELOPMENT OF MVFR AND IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT
MAY VARY FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                       SUN 01/25/15
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EST 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL/JW
NEAR TERM...ARJ/SL
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...ARJ/SL







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