Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 250627
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
227 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS AS UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST.
UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST...AND UPPER
RIDGE...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY. DEW POINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 60S TODAY...AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CREATE RATHER SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS
TODAY. SEVERAL UPPER DISTURBANCES RIDING OVER THE RIDGE TODAY WILL
INTERACT WITH THE WARM...HUMID...UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TO CREATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO...NORTHEAST KY...AND ADJACENT AREAS IN WV. BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM...AS THE
ATMOSPHERE BECOMES INCREASINGLY MOIST...WITH PWS PROGGED TO RISE
TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE WEST BY AFTERNOON.

SOME WANE IN ACTIVITY TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...BUT WILL
REVAMP AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO
MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. COULD BE SOME AREAS OF FOG MONDAY
NIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN DURING THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWEST FLOW SETTLES IN AS 5H RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS TO THE EAST. THIS LEAVES SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WITH
A TRANSITION TO A WARM MOIST AIRMASS AS FLOW OPENS UP FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO. WILL SEE A GRADUAL UPSWING IN CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS WEAK DISTURBANCES RIPPLE THROUGH THE SW FLOW...WITH
ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY. WITH GENERALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS IN
PLACE...WILL CARRY CONVECTION INTO THE NIGHT HOURS...AS WAS IN
INHERITED FORECAST. NO REAL CHANGES IN THE OFFING FOR FCST
TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST MODELS SHOW GREAT LAKES TROUGH DIGGING A LITTLE DEEPER INTO
5H RIDGE...HELPING TO KNOCK IT DOWN MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
FOR OUR SENSIBLE WX...THIS GENERALLY MEANS A WARM AND WET
SCENARIO...WITH A DIRTY RIDGE...BECOMING A REALLY DIRTY RIDGE...THAT
IS EVEN MORE WASHED OUT. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH CARRIES
GREATER AND MORE BROADBRUSHED POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST AS
MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE INCREASING
MOISTURE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP...MAINLY AFTER 18-20Z...AND MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO...EASTERN KY...AND ADJACENT WV COUNTIES. ANY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
GUSTY WINDS...WITH BRIEF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

BULK OF CONVECTION WILL WANE GENERALLY AFTER 01Z.

FOG MAY DEVELOP TOMORROW NIGHT TOWARDS END OF TAF
PERIOD...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS WHERE RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OBSERVED DURING THE DAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z
TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

.AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...LOCAL IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...SL


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