Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 251913
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
242 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES
SUNDAY. WARMER EARLY NEXT WEEK. COLD FRONTS CROSS EARLY WEDNESDAY
AND AGAIN FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FAST MOVING COLD FRONT SCOOTS ACROSS INTO THIS EVENING. KEPT SCHC
POPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BUT OTHERWISE A DRY FROPA. SOME POST
FRONTAL LOW STRATUS MAY TRY TO LINGER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND S
COAL FIELDS FOR A TIME TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT DRY AIR WILL WIN OUT
FOR MOST RESULTING IN CLEARING THIS EVENING.

A FANTASTIC SUNDAY IS SHAPING UP WITH NARY A CLOUD IN THE SKY AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE ONLY REAL CHANGE TO THE FORECAST COMES AT THE FAR END AND HAVE
GONE AHEAD AND SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHOWERS WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. KEEP LIKELIES IN PERRY COUNTY...BUT TRIM THE
EXTENT OF ANY POPS TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE NAM HAS SLOWED IT DOWN A
TOUCH AND DO NOT TRUST THE FASTER GFS IN THESE SITUATIONS.

OTHERWISE...A DR WARM FRONT COMES THROUGH MONDAY...PUSHING LOWLAND
TEMPERATURE READINGS TOWARDS THE 80 DEGREE MARK. NORTHERN ZONES
TOWARDS THE MOUNTAINS MAY HAVE TROUBLE KEEPING THAT PACE...SUCH AS
AT CKB...SO EXPECT A BIT OF A GRADIENT IN THE MAX TEMPERATURES EAST
OF I-79. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT AROUND 17C THAT DAY.

ON TUESDAY...TAKE THE MAX TEMPERATURES DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES OVER
THE WESTERN ZONES WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY.
OVERALL...EXPECT MONDAY TO BE THE WARMER OF THE TWO DAYS WEST OF
I-79 AND TUESDAY TO BE THE WARMER OF THE TWO DAYS EAST OF I-79.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MEAN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. BRINGS A SERIES OF COLD
FRONTS THRU...EACH FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES UNDER CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL BRING TEMPERATURES TO WELL BELOW NORMAL BY
FRIDAY. PRECIP WISE...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATING...MOISTURE
RETURN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF THESE FRONTS WILL BE LIMITED
WITH CORRESPONDINGLY LIGHT QPF. FIRST FRONT THIS PERIOD USES THE
SLOWER MODELS OVER THE FASTER GFS AND WILL COME ACROSS EARLY
WEDNESDAY...PRECEDED BY SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER FRONT WILL COME ACROSS FRIDAY WITH EVEN LESS
MOISTURE AVAILABLE...SO ANY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED.
TEMPERATURES WILL GET PROGRESSIVELY COOLER THIS PERIOD. WE WILL
START WITH LOWER 60S FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND ONLY NEAR 50 BY FRIDAY.
LOWS WILL START IN THE LOWER 50S TUESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE 30S BY
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MAINLY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE IS ENVISIONED INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS.
HARD TO FIGURE OUT EXTENT OF STRATUS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT.
ALLOWED FOR A PERIOD OF BKN MVFR CIG WITH THE FRONT AND LINGERED A
BIT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY KBKW. THERE
WILL BE SOME GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...PERHAPS CONTINUING FOR A FEW HRS THIS EVENING
BEFORE INVERSION SETS UP. ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN GUSTS 25 TO 35 KTS
CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING. NO FOG IS EXPECTED WITH DRY AIRMASS
AND BL PUFF.

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ON SUNDAY AMID SKC. THERE MAY BE SOME 15
TO 20 KT GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON DURING PRIME MIXING HRS ACROSS
KCKB/KEKN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS COULD VARY AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN CROSSES INTO THIS EVENING. TIMING AND
EXTENT OF MVFR STRATOCU TONIGHT MAY VARY ALSO.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/30/26
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...30










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