Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 281830
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
215 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm front lifts through overnight. Next cold front Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 215 PM Friday...

Models showing a warm front developing and pushing northward across
the area overnight. With very dry air in place in the low and mid
levels, precipitation may initially have a hard time forming. Best
chances of precipitation are over southeast Ohio where more moisture
will be available. Some models showing some training of storms along
the front possible in Ohio, so will have to keep an eye out for the
possibility of this causing water issues.

The warm front will then lift north of the area on Saturday. Looking
at the 850 mb temperatures and with plenty of afternoon sunshine
expected, will raise high temperatures. Much of the area will once
again have dry mid levels Saturday afternoon, so thunderstorms will
have a hard time forming.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 410 AM Friday...

As a warm frontal feature lifts north early Saturday there
could be a few stronger storms near the boundary, but the front
moves quickly to the north leaving us in the warm sector for the
majority of this period with some potential for diurnal shower
activity.

The main front of the week arrives Monday as a strengthening low
pressure systems surges northward into the Great Lakes region.
Good diurnal timing alignment with fropa may help to keep a
non-zero severe storm threat.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 410 AM Friday...

Cooler air will push in behind the cold front for a dry period.
Remnant MCS energy probably the biggest player in precip through
Thursday as an upper level trough ushers the remnants east into
our area by Thursday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 130 pM Friday...

VFR conditions can be expected for most locations this afternoon.
Some showers/thunderstorms could move into northeast KY and
southeast OH late this afternoon, providing some restrictions. A
warm front will develop and move northward tonight. This could
provide some additional showers/thunderstorms with restrictions
across northern and western WV and in northeast KY and southeast OH.
The front will push north of the area on Saturday. Even so, a few
showers/thunderstorms can not be ruled out, with the best chances in
southeast OH. VFR conditions can be expected outside of
precipitation tonight and Saturday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Due to limited coverage and time of
showers/Thunderstorms tonight and Saturday, they have not yet been
included in the TAFs.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR possible in showers and storms Monday into Monday night.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JW
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...JW
AVIATION...RPY



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