Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 191802
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
102 PM EST Thu Jan 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure pushes into the region tonight. Active pattern
returns with a warm front crossing Friday followed by a
stronger system early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 930 AM Thursday...

Forecast remains on track for the most part this morning
although clouds are eroding a bit slower than previously
forecast. Low clouds have been diminishing from south to north
but with dirty ridge we will likely keep mid and upper level
clouds today, so although we will see some sunshine it will be
filtered. Depending how thick this upper level deck is, I may
need to adjust high temperatures downward a couple degrees with
a later update. For now I have updated sky cover based on
current METSAT and observations.

As of 615 AM Thursday...

Several forecast challenges through the near term period. The
first is the clouds through this morning. Currently have low
stratus in place across much of CWA, however southern edge is
slowly eroding. Continued this trend, relying fairly heavily on
the 4kNAM. Even as the low clouds erode, cirrus is already
spreading over the forecast area ahead of surface warm front and
upper level negatively tilted trough that will arrive tonight.

And that is the second forecast challenge -- timing precip with
the system overnight. Did not make any huge changes to previous
forecast, although did revise timing and tried to tighten the
leading gradient used a blend of the 4kNAM and WRFnmm. Have an
area of likely POPs entering from the SW around 00Z tonight, and
transitioning NE across the forecast area overnight. Generally
have 0.2-0.3 inches of rain with this. Held off on any mention
of thunder due to the time of day, but with decent upper level
support would not be overly surprised to get a rumble or two.
Although it does look like better upper level support may be
lagging behind by a couple hours.

Expecting a mild day today, with the pattern of above normal
highs continuing. Have temps dropping a little late this
evening, but then rebounding some through the pre-dawn hours of
Friday as WAA kicks in.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 235 AM Thursday...

Warm front lifts north on Friday for another round of
precipitation with 0.25" of QPF expected and temperatures still
remaining well above normal. In between systems Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 235 AM Thursday...

Deepening 979 mb low approaches from the south on Sunday night
with its trajectory just to our east leaving the area in the
comma head which could lay down a line of high QPF amounts and
this bears watching for flooding concerns. At the same time,
cold air begins to wrap around the system from the north and
snow may be a concern especially in the mountains. Snow showers
should linger into Tuesday in the mountains while it still
looks warm enough for rain elsewhere.

Weak front brushes the area Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1255 PM Thursday...

Still some MVFR and IFR ceilings holding on across the north
this afternoon. However, the stratus continues to erode and
should see PKB and CKB come up within the next hour or two.

A warm front that is currently stationed across Central
Tennessee will continue to push northward this evening. This
will spread mid level ceilings across the area at first, but
decks will lower after midnight from south to north. Look for
mostly MVFR conditions with rain through the morning hours
Friday. Although current TAFs don`t contain IFR tomorrow
morning, it is possible that in the heavier pockets of rain we
will see IFR for ceiling and visibilities. Conditions will start
to improve towards the end of the forecast period once the warm
front pushes through.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of thresholds lower ceilings and
visibilities tomorrow morning with approaching warm front may
vary.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR will be possible again Sunday through Monday as another
system passes to our south.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JW/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ/MPK
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...JW
AVIATION...MPK



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