Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 281038
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
638 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER TODAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NORTH. HOT AND
MORE HUMID SATURDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
DISTURBANCE ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT ALMOST ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE CWA...AND ANTICIPATE IT TO
CLEAR TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. STILL...ENOUGH LINGERING
MOISTURE TO KEEP SOME TOKEN POPS ACROSS MAINLY VA COUNTIES INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT FOG AND LOW STRATUS THROUGH THE
MOUNTAINS AND MUCH OF THE WV LOWLANDS INITIALLY THIS MORNING...WHICH
SHOULD SCATTER OUT AND LIFT INTO CU THROUGH THE MORNING.

MET CONTINUES TO PERFORM WELL ON HIGH TEMPS IN THIS PATTERN...SO
LEANED THAT WAY...COOLING HIGHS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. USED A
CONSENSUS BLEND FOR LOWS...COOLING THE NORTH A TOUCH AND WARMING THE
SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE CONVECTION ON OUR GRAVEYARD SHIFT THIS MORNING OVER SOUTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA HAD SOME DUMPERS. MAXIMUM MEASURED/OBSERVED AMOUNTS OF
1 TO 1.5 INCHES IN AN HOUR. LUCKILY THE DURATION OF THAT CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WAS ABOUT AN HOUR...KEEPING MAXIMUM RAIN TOTALS UNDER
2 INCHES.   TIME WAS DEVOTED TO RADAR AND HYDROLOGY...AND THUS LESS
TIME THAN USUAL ALLOTTED FOR UPDATING THIS SHORT TERM.

A WEAK SE COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL WINDS ON FRIDAY...SO CONTINUED
THE 20/30 POPS MOSTLY OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES...BUT ALSO
TAILING WEST TO CATCH NORTHEAST KENTUCKY BY LATE IN THE DAY OR
FRIDAY EVENING.  THE AXIS OF THE 500 MB RIDGE SHOULD BE PASSING ON
FRIDAY. THE OLD LOW LEVEL DEW POINT GRADIENT SHOULD BE IN EASTERN
KENTUCKY THEN...BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.

THE 925 MB FLOW DOES INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT OUR OF THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST.  SOME LOW LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THAT INCREASE IN
THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW...COULD KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE POP LIFTING
NORTH FOR A SHOWER OR STORM OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE LAST REMNANTS OF THE DRIER MEAN RH THAT PENETRATED ALL THE WAY
DOWN INTO THE DEEP SOUTH...TRIES TO LIFT BACK THRU US ON
SATURDAY...BUT HAD TO LEAVE SOME 20 AND 30 POPS FOR MANY COUNTIES.
00Z NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE NARROW CAPE WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL 35 TO
40K IN THE MORE HUMID AIR.

WAS A BIT FASTER INCREASING POPS IN THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...AS MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE RIDES
NORTHEAST IN THE INCREASING SW MID LEVEL FLOW.  DID DECREASE MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE A BIT ON SUNDAY DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUDS AND PCPN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH
SEVERAL MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN ON AND OFF CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH THIS FEATURE POSSIBLY PUSHING
ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY.

BEST CHANCE OF GETTING WET STILL APPEARS TO BE ON SUNDAY...WHEN A
DECENT SHORTWAVE PASSES BY.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW STRATUS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...AND ANTICIPATE IT
WILL TAKE A WHILE STILL TO START SCATTERING OUT...ESPECIALLY FROM
EKN-CRW AND EAST. PKB HAS ALREADY LOST THE CLOUDS...AND THINK CKB
AND HTS SHOULD SCATTER OUT NEXT. THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
SCATTER AND LIFT INTO A VFR CU DECK BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
GENERALLY EXPECT LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS TODAY. COULD GET AN
ISOLATED T-SHOWER ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN CWA TODAY...BUT
SHOULD NOT IMPACT ANY TAF SITES. ANOTHER SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AS MODELS SHOW MID TO HIGH CLOUDS BEGINNING
TO STREAM BACK INTO CWA FROM THE SW. THINK NORTHERN CWA SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY CLEAR WITH FOG DEVELOPING TONIGHT. FARTHER SOUTH IT
WILL DEPEND ON JUST HOW THICK THE CLOUDS ARE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG/LOW STRATUS MAY VARY
THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...MZ







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