Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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747
FXUS64 KSHV 262333 AAA
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
633 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will continue through much of the 27/00Z TAF
period. The sct cu field should continue to diminish early this
evening, with the isolated convection ongoing over portions of
Deep E TX (just E of the LFK terminal) and Wcntrl LA expected to
dissipate shortly after sunset as well. An extensive cirrus shield
over OK/AR this afternoon should continue to spill S into the
region this evening, and linger overnight in response to ongoing
convection over Srn KS/SE MO. As was the case this morning, can`t
rule out sct LIFR cigs and patchy FG developing around/shortly
after 12Z Thursday over portions of Deep E TX and Wcntrl LA,
mainly affecting LFK, but do not think it will be as widespread or
dense as it was this morning, with any cigs/vsby restrictions
quickly lifting/scattering out by 14-15Z. A sct cu field should
develop areawide by mid to late morning, lingering through early
evening before diminishing. S winds 3-7kts tonight will become SSW
6-10kts after 15Z Thursday. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 401 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The center of the upper level ridge axis remains out west across
the TX panhandle with the eastern periphery extending well into
the SE CONUS. A modest cu field managed to develop this afternoon
across the entire region but did very little to keep temperatures
from climbing well into the lower to mid 90s. As anticipated, dew
points were not able to mix out as well as yesterday and the end
result was heat index values several degrees hotter than ambient
temperatures. Thus, we have met heat advisory criteria at most
locations this afternoon and will likely do so again on Thursday
so have kept the current advisory running through 7 PM tomorrow.
Overnight lows will be quite warm and muggy as well with mid to
upper 70s expected through the end of the week. After that, we
look to finally get a reprieve from the oppressive heat by way of
a rare summertime cool front which will begin to encroach on the
region late Friday as the upper level ridge finally retreats out
west.

The front will move into northern sections of the area late Friday
afternoon through the evening hours with scattered showers and
thunderstorms developing around fropa. The front may slow its
progress as it approaches the I-20 corridor but will continue to
slowly push south through the day Saturday. The threat for showers
and storms will gradually fade from north to south with frontal
progression. Noticeably cooler and drier air will filter south in
wake of the front with upper 80s north to lower 90s south for
highs on Sunday. Overnight temperatures will really be pleasant
with lows by Monday morning falling into the mid and upper 60s to
to near 70 degrees. A gradual moderation back toward seasonal
averages will return by mid week with slight rain chances also
sneaking back into the picture with the hotter and more humid air
mass returning later on Tuesday into Wednesday.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  77  96  78  96 /   0  10  10  20
MLU  75  97  76  95 /   0  10  10  30
DEQ  75  96  76  95 /   0  10  20  30
TXK  77  96  78  96 /   0  10  10  30
ELD  76  97  77  94 /   0  10  10  30
TYR  77  96  78  98 /   0  10  10  20
GGG  76  96  77  97 /   0  10  10  20
LFK  76  97  75  97 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

15



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