Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 280730
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
230 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...
MUCH ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT AS OF 07Z WAS LOCATED NEAR A
PBF...TXK...PRX...GYI...SPS LINE AND CONTINUES TO MAKE STEADY
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD EARLY THIS MORNING. WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION
ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND JUST BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS SE
OK INTO S AR APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED AND JUST BEHIND THE
INITIAL WIND SHIFT. LATEST MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEPER MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA/N TX WHERE BETTER FRONTAL
FORCING IS PRESENT BUT WEAK CONVERGENCE DOES EXIST FURTHER EAST
ACROSS SE OK/SW AR.

LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWING PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION MONDAY EVENING ACROSS SE OK/SW AR. SCT CU FIELD NEAR
5-6KFT EXIST CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
NE TX INTO SE OK/SW AR ATTM AS WELL.

WILL FOLLOW THE LATEST HRRR OUTPUT CLOSELY FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE
WHICH SUGGESTS THAT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES CLOSER TO THE
I-20 CORRIDOR TERMINALS...WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CEILINGS IF ANY SHOULD BE AROUND 5-KFT AS THE BOUNDARY NEARS WITH
VCTS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AFTER 18Z...ANY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD BE PUSHING/OR HAVE PUSHED SOUTH OF THE
I-20 TERMINAL LOCATIONS.

WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE CURRENTLY BUT AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES
FURTHER SOUTH...EXPECT POST FRONTAL WINDS TO BE OUT OF THE NNE
NEAR 5-10KTS WITH THOSE WINDS BACKING SLIGHTLY TO MORE OF A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AFTER SUNSET...
WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO MORE OF A NE DIRECTION AND REMAIN NEAR
4-7KTS OVERNIGHT.

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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  92  71  91  68  88 /  30  20   0  10  10
MLU  92  67  89  64  87 /  30  20   0  10  10
DEQ  89  64  85  63  83 /  20  10   0   0  30
TXK  91  67  88  65  86 /  30  20   0   0  20
ELD  91  67  86  64  85 /  30  20   0   0  10
TYR  92  71  91  70  90 /  30  20  10  10  20
GGG  92  70  91  69  89 /  30  20  10  10  20
LFK  94  73  92  72  92 /  40  30  20  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

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