Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 201609
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1109 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...
For the morning update have made minor changes to the sky
coverage, surface winds, and removed the mention of morning fog.
A small upper level low pressure system over Southeast Oklahoma
and Southwest Arkansas had a short wave trough of low pressure
that extended Southwest across East and Northeast Texas and to
the middle and upper Texas Coast. Earlier a few showers had
developed near and ahead of the base of the trough across parts of
Southeast Texas just South of Toledo Bend Lake and the East Texas
Lakes Area, but those have weakened. With afternoon heating and
available moisture there could be additional development of
convection during the remainder of the day for areas to the East
of this upper low and trough with higher chances from the coast
across Northwest and North Central Louisiana and South Central
Arkansas. No significant changes were made to the expected high
temperatures ted him

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 713 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017/

AVIATION...
Areas of IFR/low MVFR cigs have developed/advected NE across much
of E TX/N LA this morning, and may affect portions of SW AR by
mid-morning before a gradually improvement is observed. However,
MVFR cigs may linger through much of the morning before becoming
VFR, with the cu field scattering out by early to mid afternoon. A
weak shortwave noted over Ecntrl TX will shift E across the region
today, resulting in areas of AC/cirrus cigs which will gradually
diminish from W to E this afternoon, with only isolated convection
possible this afternoon over portions of E TX/N LA. However, low
confidence precludes VCSH mention in the TAF`s attm. The cu field
should diminish by early evening, with SKC returning to all but
portions of Scntrl AR/Ern sections of Ncntrl LA where some
AC/cirrus may linger. However, additional low MVFR and possibly
IFR cigs will redevelop across E TX/Wrn LA after 06Z Thursday,
possibly affecting the TYR/GGG/LFK/SHV terminals by the end of the
TAF period. SSW winds 6-12kts with occasional gusts to 20kts over
portions of NE TX today, will diminish to 3-8kts after 00Z, with
the weaker winds over Ncntrl LA/Scntrl Ar. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  74  92  73 /  20  10  20  10
MLU  91  71  92  72 /  30  10  20  10
DEQ  93  73  91  71 /  10   0  10   0
TXK  92  73  91  72 /  10   0  10   0
ELD  91  72  91  71 /  20   0  10  10
TYR  92  74  91  72 /  20   0  20  10
GGG  93  73  91  72 /  20   0  20  10
LFK  92  74  90  71 /  30  10  30  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

06/15


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