Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 220037
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
737 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW SCT SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...BUT HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS DUE TO
SPARSE COVERAGE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE
00Z TAF PD...WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING NELY AT 8-12 KTS
AFTER SUNRISE. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO ENTER THE VERY NRN FRINGES OF
THE CWA. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS SWD BEFORE
COMPLETELY CLEAR OUR DEEP E TX COUNTIES/CNTRL LA PARISHES AFTER
SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. SCT CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED DURING THE
LAST COUPLE OF HRS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE MORE ISOLD
SHWRS HAVE ACROSS THE SERN ZONES IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK UPPER LVL
DISTURBANCE OVER SE LA.

MAINTENANCE OF THE CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT IS QUITE UNCERTAIN
THROUGH THE EVENING HRS. THE AXIS OF AN UPPER TROUGH DIVES SSEWD
ACROSS THE MS VALLEY AND GIVES THE COOL AND DRY POST- FRONTAL
AIRMASS A STRONG PUSH. THE MORE STABLE AIR SHOULD SCOUR OUR THE
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN THE SHWRS/TSTMS
DISSIPATING AS THE FRONT NEARS I-20 AROUND SUNRISE. MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THIS SEEMS LIKE A REASONABLE SCENARIO.
THUS...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FCST THROUGH 12Z MONDAY
MORNING.

STRONG SFC HIGH WITH A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THIS WILL LEAVE THE AREA LARGELY PRECIP
FREE FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE WILL BE CUT OFF THE AREA LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS AND
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE MID 80S. /09/

AVIATION...

MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES FOR THE FOUR STATE AREA THROUGH THE
TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD ENDING AT 22/18Z. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING WITH THE
APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT...AND POSSIBLE BRIEF MIST/BR
NEAR DAYBREAK FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF EAST TEXAS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT NORTHERLY WITH SOME BRIEF HIGHER
SPEEDS TO 7-10 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING WHEN SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST 8-12 KNOTS. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  66  87  58  83  57 /  20  10   0   0   0
MLU  63  85  55  81  57 /  20  10   0   0   0
DEQ  59  80  54  78  54 /  20   0   0   0   0
TXK  61  81  56  80  54 /  20   0   0   0   0
ELD  61  81  55  80  57 /  20   0   0   0   0
TYR  67  85  58  83  55 /  20  10   0   0   0
GGG  67  85  57  83  56 /  20  10   0   0   0
LFK  69  90  60  85  60 /  20  10  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12/99/99




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