Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 121230
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2014 Jul 12 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 12-Jul 14 2014 is 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 12-Jul 14 2014

            Jul 12     Jul 13     Jul 14
00-03UT        2          2          2
03-06UT        2          2          2
06-09UT        2          1          2
09-12UT        2          1          2
12-15UT        1          2          2
15-18UT        1          3          2
18-21UT        2          3          2
21-00UT        2          3          2

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 12-Jul 14 2014

              Jul 12  Jul 13  Jul 14
S1 or greater   10%      5%      5%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for an S1 (Minor) or greater solar
radiation storm on day 1 from regions near the west limb.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 12-Jul 14 2014

              Jul 12        Jul 13        Jul 14
R1-R2           60%           50%           30%
R3 or greater   10%            5%            5%

Rationale: R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are likely on day 1
(Jul 12) and there is a chance for them on days 2 and 3 (Jul 13-14)
particularly from Regions 2108 and 2109.


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