Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 220031
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2014 Aug 22 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 22-Aug 24 2014 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 22-Aug 24 2014

            Aug 22     Aug 23     Aug 24
00-03UT        4          2          2
03-06UT        4          2          1
06-09UT        1          2          1
09-12UT        1          1          1
12-15UT        1          1          1
15-18UT        1          1          1
18-21UT        1          1          2
21-00UT        1          1          2

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 22-Aug 24 2014

              Aug 22  Aug 23  Aug 24
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Aug 21 2014 1331 UTC

Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 22-Aug 24 2014

              Aug 22        Aug 23        Aug 24
R1-R2           25%           25%           25%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: A chance for an M-class flare exists during the period, as a
result of the enhanced magnetic complexity of Regions 2146 and 2149.


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