Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 291230
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2015 Aug 29 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 29-Aug 31 2015 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 29-Aug 31 2015

            Aug 29     Aug 30     Aug 31
00-03UT        5 (G1)     4          3
03-06UT        3          3          3
06-09UT        2          2          2
09-12UT        4          2          1
12-15UT        4          2          1
15-18UT        3          2          2
18-21UT        3          3          2
21-00UT        3          3          2

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on day one (29 Aug)
due to the influence of a negative polarity coronal hole high speed
stream.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 29-Aug 31 2015

              Aug 29  Aug 30  Aug 31
S1 or greater   10%     10%      5%

Rationale: A slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event
(S1-Minor) exists on days one and two (29-30 Aug) due to flare potential
from Region 2403 which is in a well connected magnetic position. The
chance for an event decreases on day three (31 Aug) as Region 2403
rotates around the west limb.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Aug 28 2015 1316 UTC

Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 29-Aug 31 2015

              Aug 29        Aug 30        Aug 31
R1-R2           60%           60%           50%
R3 or greater   10%           10%            5%

Rationale: Solar activity is expected to be low with M-class (R1-Minor)
flares likely and a slight chance for X-class (R3-Strong) activity on
days one and two (29-30 Aug). Activity is expected to remain low with
only a chance for M-class flares on day three (31 Aug) as 2403 rotates
around the west limb.


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