Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 281230
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2015 Feb 28 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 28-Mar 02 2015 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 28-Mar 02 2015

            Feb 28     Mar 01     Mar 02
00-03UT        1          5 (G1)     5 (G1)
03-06UT        3          4          4
06-09UT        3          3          3
09-12UT        2          3          3
12-15UT        2          3          3
15-18UT        3          3          3
18-21UT        4          4          3
21-00UT        5 (G1)     4          4

Rationale: Periods of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are likely
over the next three days (28 Feb-02 Mar) due to coronal hole high speed
stream effects.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 28-Mar 02 2015

              Feb 28  Mar 01  Mar 02
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 28-Mar 02 2015

              Feb 28        Mar 01        Mar 02
R1-R2           10%           10%           10%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.



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