Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 301231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2014 Jul 30 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 30-Aug 01 2014 is 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 30-Aug 01 2014

            Jul 30     Jul 31     Aug 01
00-03UT        3          2          2
03-06UT        1          1          1
06-09UT        1          1          1
09-12UT        1          1          1
12-15UT        1          1          1
15-18UT        1          1          1
18-21UT        2          2          2
21-00UT        2          2          2

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 30-Aug 01 2014

              Jul 30  Jul 31  Aug 01
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 30-Aug 01 2014

              Jul 30        Jul 31        Aug 01
R1-R2           30%           30%           30%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: A chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts exists
due to the complexity of Regions 2126, 2127, and 2130.



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