Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 211231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2014 Dec 21 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 21-Dec 23 2014 is 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 21-Dec 23 2014

            Dec 21     Dec 22     Dec 23
00-03UT        3          5 (G1)     3
03-06UT        3          4          2
06-09UT        3          4          2
09-12UT        2          3          2
12-15UT        3          3          2
15-18UT        3          3          2
18-21UT        5 (G1)     3          2
21-00UT        6 (G2)     3          2

Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storming is likely by late
on day one to early on day two (21-22 Dec) due to the arrival of the 18
Dec CME.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 21-Dec 23 2014

              Dec 21  Dec 22  Dec 23
S1 or greater   30%     30%     30%

Rationale: There is a chance for an S1 (minor) or greater solar
radiation storm from activity associated with Regions 2242 and 2241.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Dec 21 2014 0732 UTC

Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 21-Dec 23 2014

              Dec 21        Dec 22        Dec 23
R1-R2           85%           85%           85%
R3 or greater   40%           40%           40%

Rationale: R1-R2 (minor-moderate) solar activity is expected from
Regions 2242 and 2241, with a chance for an R3 (strong) or greater event
from these large, complex regions.


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