Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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AXUS74 KFWD 060010
DGTFWD
TXC001-027-035-085-093-097-099-113-119-121-133-139-143-145-147-161-
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337-349-363-367-379-395-397-425-429-439-467-497-503-060000-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
610 PM CST FRI DEC 5 2014

...EL NINO STRENGTHENING AS WINTER BEGINS...

FOR ADDITIONAL CONTENT...VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FORTWORTH/?N=DROUGHT

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SYNOPSIS...

THE DROUGHT IS NOW IN ITS 5TH YEAR. ALTHOUGH THE AGRICULTURAL
DROUGHT HAS SEEN OCCASIONAL REPRIEVES...THE HYDROLOGIC DROUGHT HAS
STEADILY WORSENED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. NEARLY 30 FEET BELOW
CONSERVATION...HUBBARD CREEK RESERVOIR IS ONLY 14 PERCENT FULL. ALSO
IN THE BRAZOS BASIN IS LAKE PALO PINTO...WHICH IS AT 10 PERCENT OF
ITS CONSERVATION VOLUME. LAKE RAY HUBBARD (TRINITY BASIN) IS
CURRENTLY AT ITS ALL-TIME RECORD LOW LEVEL. AUTUMN RAINFALL PROVIDED
MINIMAL RUNOFF FOR AREA RESERVOIRS...EMPHASIZING HOW MUCH MORE
RAINFALL IS NEEDED.

THE WORST DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE IMPACTING THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH
METROPLEX AND AREAS TO THE WEST. CONDITIONS RANGE FROM ABNORMALLY
DRY (D0) IN EAST TEXAS TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4) FROM THE
METROPLEX WESTWARD TO THE POSSUM KINGDOM AREA. ON SEPTEMBER 24...
POSSUM KINGDOM LAKE BOTTOMED OUT AT 983.74 FEET ABOVE SEA LEVEL...
ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE 1971.

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC EXCEEDED THE
THRESHOLD FOR EL NINO CONDITIONS IN MID-OCTOBER...AND THERE HAS BEEN
ADDITIONAL WARMING SINCE. EL NINO CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE WINTER. AS A RESULT...LONG RANGE OUTLOOKS
FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION...WHICH COULD EASE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...A MODERATE OR STRONG EL NINO
IS UNLIKELY...WHICH MAY REDUCE THE CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT DROUGHT
RELIEF.

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CLIMATE SUMMARY...

NOVEMBER PRECIPITATION TOTALS EXCEEDED NORMAL VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL TEXAS AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. BUT ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS...NOVEMBER WAS YET ANOTHER MONTH WITH
INSUFFICIENT RAINFALL. FOR DFW AIRPORT...THE AUTUMN PRECIPITATION
TOTAL (SEPTEMBER-NOVEMBER) WAS FIRMLY IN THE DRIEST TERCILE...THE
DRIEST THIRD OF HISTORICAL DATA.

THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE REGION...YEAR-TO-DATE PRECIPITATION TOTALS
ARE BELOW NORMAL. AT DFW AIRPORT...WHERE THERE HAS BEEN ONLY ONE
MONTH THIS YEAR (AUGUST) WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION...THE
YEAR-TO-DATE TOTAL (THROUGH THE END OF NOVEMBER) WAS THE 12TH DRIEST
IN 116 YEARS OF RECORDS.

DEFICITS OVER THE LAST 4 YEARS VARY WIDELY BUT EXCEED 40 INCHES IN
MANY AREAS.

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PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH PACIFIC HAVE BEEN WARMER THAN
NORMAL THROUGHOUT 2014...BUT THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC WAS SLOW TO
FOLLOW SUIT. HOWEVER...EL NINO CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN IN PLACE SINCE
MID-OCTOBER...AND ENHANCED WARMING THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
SUGGESTS A SHIFT TO EL NINO HAS FINALLY OCCURRED. THE LIKELIHOOD OF
AN EL NINO EVENT THIS WINTER HAS INCREASED TO 65 PERCENT.

OUTLOOKS FOR THE WINTER MONTHS CONTINUE TO FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION. BASED ON PREVIOUS EL NINO EVENTS...THE PROSPECTS FOR
ENHANCED PRECIPITATION ARE GREATER TOWARD THE GULF COAST. THE WET
SIGNAL IS STRONG IN CENTRAL TEXAS BUT IS MUCH LESS SIGNIFICANT ALONG
THE RED RIVER AND IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. THE STRENGTH
OF EL NINO MAY ALSO PLAY A ROLE...WITH WEAKER EL NINO EVENTS HAVING
PRECIPITATION TOTALS CLOSER TO NORMAL. BASED ON CURRENT MODEL
PROJECTIONS...A MODERATE OR STRONG EL NINO IS UNLIKELY.

OUTLOOKS FOR THE WINTER ALSO FAVOR COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
IT IS IMPORTANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT THESE ARE BASED ON MULTI-MONTH
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE PROJECTIONS...WHICH CAN MASK IMPORTANT DETAILS.
PREVIOUS EL NINO EVENTS SHOWED A SIMILAR GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURE
ANOMALIES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...WITH CENTRAL TEXAS HAVING A STRONGER
COOL SIGNAL THAN AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. DESPITE
THE COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE LONG TERM...DUE
PRIMARILY TO ENHANCED PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER
REDUCING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...PREDOMINANT ZONAL FLOW ACTUALLY
REDUCES THE INCIDENCE OF ARCTIC INTRUSIONS. AS A RESULT...EXTREME
COLD IS LESS LIKELY DURING EL NINO WINTERS...AND THERE ARE TYPICALLY
FEWER FREEZES THAN NORMAL.

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LAKE LEVELS...

THE VAST MAJORITY OF RESERVOIRS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS HAS
LOST WATER DURING THE LAST SEVERAL MONTHS. AMONG THE LAKES THAT ARE
STRUGGLING THE MOST...SOME HAVE SET RECORD LOW LEVELS THIS YEAR.

 * THE LEVEL AT LAKE GRANBURY HIT AN ALL-TIME LOW ON JUNE 22 BEFORE
   A DELUGE IN ITS WATERSHED RAISED THE LEVEL BY MORE THAN 6 FEET IN
   JUST 2 DAYS. HOWEVER...THE LAKE HAS BEEN STEADILY LOSING WATER
   SINCE THE BEGINNING OF JULY AND IS CURRENTLY WITHIN A COUPLE OF
   FEET OF SETTING A NEW RECORD.

 * LAKE NOCONA (MONTAGUE COUNTY) REACHED AN ALL-TIME RECORD LOW OF
   813.61 FEET ABOVE SEA LEVEL ON OCTOBER 10 BEFORE RAINFALL RAISED
   THE LAKE LEVEL BY 4 INCHES. A NEW RECORD LOW OF 813.41 WAS SET IN
   EARLY NOVEMBER. THE LAKE FELL TO 813.43 ON NOVEMBER 19 AND
   REMAINED AROUND 813.43 ON NOVEMBER 21 BEFORE ANOTHER RAIN EVENT.

 * LAKE RAY HUBBARD (A WATER SUPPLY RESERVOIR FOR THE CITY OF
   DALLAS) IS CURRENTLY AT ITS ALL-TIME RECORD LOW LEVEL.


                        NEW              RECORD LOW          YEAR
                     RECORD LOW            BEFORE           DAM WAS
                    SET THIS YEAR      CURRENT DROUGHT     COMPLETED

LAKE GRANBURY      681.48 / JUN 22    685.28 / AUG 1978      1969
LAKE NOCONA        813.41 / NOV 4     816.95 / OCT 2000      1960
LAKE RAY HUBBARD   425.04 / DEC 5     429.72 / OCT 2000      1969

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WATER RESTRICTIONS...

ON NOVEMBER 1...THE NORTH TEXAS MUNICIPAL WATER DISTRICT (NTMWD)
RETURNED TO STAGE 3 WATER RESTRICTIONS...WHICH LIMITS LANDSCAPE
WATERING TO ONCE EVERY 2 WEEKS. SPRINKLERS AND OTHER IRRIGATION
SYSTEMS ARE PROHIBITED BETWEEN 10 AM AND 6 PM. THE ELEVATED
RESTRICTIONS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE END OF MARCH. THE
NTMWD SERVES 1.6 MILLION CUSTOMERS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CITY OF
DALLAS.

IN APRIL 2014...THE FORT WORTH CITY COUNCIL MADE PERMANENT ITS
TWICE-PER-WEEK LIMIT ON LANDSCAPE WATERING. ONLY HAND WATERING IS
ALLOWED BETWEEN 10 AM AND 6 PM. ARLINGTON...ALSO WITHIN THE TARRANT
REGIONAL WATER DISTRICT (TRWD) SERVICE AREA...HAS SIMILAR
RESTRICTIONS BUT IS NOT READY TO MAKE THEM PERMANENT. DALLAS IS ALSO
CONTINUING ITS TWICE-PER-WEEK LIMIT. SINCE WATER RESTRICTIONS VARY
CONSIDERABLY THROUGHOUT THE METROPLEX...RESIDENTS SHOULD KEEP
INFORMED WITH THE CURRENT GUIDELINES FROM THEIR MUNICIPALITY OR
WATER UTILITY PROVIDER.

VOLUNTARY CONSERVATION CONTINUES FOR BOTH WACO AND TEMPLE/KILLEEN.
HOWEVER...WATER RESTRICTIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SOME COMMUNITIES
WITHIN MCLENNAN AND BELL COUNTIES.

THE BRAZOS RIVER AUTHORITY IS ASKING CUSTOMERS WITHIN THE UPPER
BRAZOS BASIN...AS WELL AS AREAS AS FAR DOWNSTREAM AS WHITNEY...TO
REDUCE USAGE BY 10 PERCENT.

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NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THE NEXT DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED IN JANUARY.

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&&

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RELATED WEB SITES...

NWS FORT WORTH DROUGHT PAGE - WEATHER.GOV/FORTWORTH/?N=DROUGHT

NATIONAL INTEGRATED DROUGHT INFORMATION SYSTEM - DROUGHT.GOV
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER - WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES - WATER.WEATHER.GOV

NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER - DROUGHT.UNL.EDU
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR - DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU
DROUGHT IMPACT REPORTER - DROUGHTREPORTER.UNL.EDU

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS...

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR FACILITATES CONTINUOUS DISCUSSION AMONG
NUMEROUS AGENCIES...ACADEMIA...AND OTHER LOCAL INTERESTS. THE
EXPERTISE OF ITS MEMBERS HAS BEEN INVALUABLE IN DEVELOPING DROUGHT
PRODUCTS AND SERVICES FOR OUR CUSTOMERS AND PARTNERS.

THE DROUGHT IMPACT REPORTER (MAINTAINED BY THE NATIONAL DROUGHT
MITIGATION CENTER) HAS ALLOWED VARIOUS IMPACTS TO BE COMPILED WITHIN
ONE CLEARINGHOUSE. THESE IMPACTS INCLUDE AGRICULTURAL ISSUES...
HYDROLOGIC DEFICITS...FIRE DANGER...AND OTHER SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC
CONSEQUENCES.

THE TEXAS A&M FOREST SERVICE CONTINUALLY MONITORS VEGETATION
CONDITIONS AND WILDFIRE POTENTIAL. THE STATE AGENCY ALSO MAINTAINS A
CURRENT LIST OF COUNTYWIDE BURN BANS.

OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION ARE SUMMARIZED FROM A
VARIETY OF PRODUCTS CREATED BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC).
CPC IS A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE (NWS) ENTITY WITHIN THE NATIONAL
CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION (NCEP).

THE HYDROLOGIC DATA ARE COMPILED FROM NUMEROUS SOURCES...INCLUDING
THE U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS (USACE)...THE TEXAS WATER
DEVELOPMENT BOARD (TWDB)...AND LOCAL WATER DISTRICTS.

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QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK ON OUR DROUGHT
PRODUCTS AND SERVICES...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE
3401 NORTHERN CROSS BLVD.
FORT WORTH, TX 76137

PHONE: (817) 429-2631
E-MAIL: SR-FWD.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV

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$$

HUCKABY/25






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