National Weather Service Text Product Display

Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Tiyan, Guam
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6
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AXGM70 PGUM 110145
DGTGUM
PMZ161-171>174-181-GUZ001>004-250600-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1145 AM CHST TUE JUN 11 2013

...A DRY TRADE-WIND PATTERN REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MARSHALL
ISLANDS...

THE REPUBLIC OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS (RMI) CABINET ON MAY 6TH ISSUED
A STATE OF DISASTER FOR THE NORTHERN RMI...WHICH WAS ELEVATED FROM
THE PREVIOUS STATE OF EMERGENCY DECLARED ON 19 FEBRUARY.  THE
DROUGHT WAS AFFECTING OVER 6,300 PEOPLE.

PREVIOUSLY DRY WEATHER IN AREAS OF THE COMMONWEALTH OF THE NORTHERN
MARIANA ISLANDS (CNMI) AND GUAM...ALONG WITH MOST OF CHUUK AND YAP
STATES HAVE RECEIVED ADEQUATE RAINFALL RECENTLY...AND A MORE
SEASONAL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF
MICRONESIA IN THE COMING WEEKS.

SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HAS WEAKENED RECENTLY WHILE
ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS THE PACIFIC OCEAN. THE WEATHER
IS VERY DRY FROM KWAJALEIN TO WAKE ISLAND BETWEEN 9 AND 20 DEGREES
NORTH LATITUDE FROM 160 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
DATE LINE.

PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER ARE STILL LIKELY IN THE NORTHERN MARSHALL
ISLANDS. MOST CLIMATE MODELS INDICATE ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THIS SUMMER WHILE NEAR NORMAL TRADE-WIND PATTERNS DEVELOP
OVER MOST OF MICRONESIA IN THE COMING WEEKS.

SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE STILL OCCURRING FOR ATOLLS OF THE
MARSHALL ISLANDS NORTH OF 9N...INCLUDING BIKINI...ENEWETAK...
RONGELAP...RONGERIK...ALINGINAE...AILUK...LIKIEP...WOTJE...MEJIT
ISLAND AND UTIRIK. ISLANDS BETWEEN 8N AND 9N...SUCH AS NAMU AND
MALOELAP...COULD YET SEE SOME PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER. ATOLLS FROM
MAJURO AND AILINGALAPLAP SOUTHWARD WILL RECEIVE SUFFICIENT RAINFALL.

A MORE SEASONAL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR GUAM
ALONG WITH ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN OF THE CNMI AND FOR YAP STATE.
THE NORTHERN AREAS OF CHUUK STATE...INCLUDING NAMONUITO ATOLL AND
THE HALL ISLANDS SHOULD SEE ADEQUATE RAINFALL IN THE COMING WEEKS.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

REPUBLIC OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS...

MAJURO AND ARNO...
TRADE-WIND SHOWERS ARE HELPING WATER SUPPLIES ON MAJURO AND ARNO.
LATEST DATA FOR MAJURO FOR JUNE 11TH INDICATES THE MAJURO RESERVOIR
WAS NEAR HALF FULL WITH AN ESTIMATED 15.6 MILLION GALLONS OF WATER.

ATOLLS NORTH OF MAJURO AND AILINGALAPLAP...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW WEEKS NORTH OF 8N TO 9N.
A FEW TRADE-WIND SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AT TIMES AND PREPARATIONS
SHOULD BE MADE TO CAPTURE BRIEF RAINFALL. SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS
HAVE LIKELY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED AGRICULTURE ON MANY ATOLLS OF THE
NORTHERN RMI AND SUPPLEMENTAL FOOD MAY BE NEEDED. MOST OF THE WELL
WATER IN THE NORTHERN ISLANDS HAS BECOME TOO SALTY FOR HUMAN
CONSUMPTION. CONSIDERABLE RAIN WILL BE NEEDED TO DILUTE AND
REPLENISH THE SALTY AQUIFERS. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE RMI HAS SENT OUT
DROUGHT ASSESSMENT TEAMS. THEY HAVE REPORTED VERY SEVERE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS WITH CRITICAL WATER SHORTAGES...ALONG WITH DAMAGED OR
DESTROYED FOOD CROPS AND DETERIORATING HEALTH IN MANY LOCATIONS.

ATOLLS SOUTH OF MAJURO...
MAJURO AND ATOLLS SOUTH OF MAJURO HAVE RECEIVED SUFFICIENT RAINFALL
RECENTLY AND DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

FEDERATED STATES OF MICRONESIA...

RAINFALL HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT FOR THE MORTLOCKS AND CHUUK LAGOON...
FOR YAP ISLAND AND YAP STATE ATOLLS...AND FOR POHNPEI AND KOSRAE
STATES. RAINFALL WILL STILL BE MONITORED FOR THE FEDERATED STATES OF
MICRONESIA...ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN ISLANDS OF YAP STATE AND FOR
NORTHERN AND WESTERN ISLANDS OF CHUUK STATE. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS
HAVE IMPROVED FOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ISLANDS OF CHUUK STATE AND
EASTERN ISLANDS OF YAP STATE.

COMMONWEALTH OF THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS (CNMI) AND GUAM...

WATER RESOURCES SEEM TO BE ADEQUATE IN THE CNMI AND ARE MORE THAN
ADEQUATE ON GUAM. THE MAJOR IMPACT FROM THE VERY DRY WEATHER HAS
BEEN GRASS FIRES...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED ENOUGH TO
ALLEVIATE THE FIRE DANGER FOR THE CNMI AND GUAM.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...
THE ENSO-NEUTRAL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST WHILE DRY CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY IMPROVE OVER THE COMING WEEKS.

SOME REGIONAL RAINFALL REPORTS IN INCHES ARE AS FOLLOWS...

                   JANUARY  FEBRUARY  MARCH  APRIL  MAY   JUNE 11TH

MARSHALL ISLANDS
MAJURO...             2.42   10.44    5.13   6.46   6.60    1.21
KWAJALEIN...          1.22    0.46    1.73   9.34   1.97    1.12
UTIRIK...             1.91    1.19    0.37   0.19   0.55    1.40
WOTJE...              0.42    0.12    0.12   1.27   1.17    1.41

CHUUK STATE
FANANU...             3.10    2.41    4.87   3.93   6.03     NA
ONUON...              9.26    2.13    6.06   4.18   4.20     NA

YAP STATE
YAP...                5.72    5.86    5.95   2.81   5.41    3.92
ULITHI...             3.24    4.81    3.23   4.05   3.78     NA
WOLEAI...             6.89    9.39    3.05   9.19  10.03     NA

CNMI
SAIPAN...             4.83    2.78    2.40   1.65   4.82    2.30
TINIAN...             6.80    2.10    5.30   0.60   5.36     NA
ROTA...               3.91    2.78    3.53   1.74   3.81     NA

GUAM...               5.12    2.95    3.95   1.14   3.51    1.75

TEMPERATURE/PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK...

A NEAR-SEASONAL PATTERN OF CLOUD CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE COMING WEEKS.

REPUBLIC OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS...

MAJURO ATOLL AS OF JUNE 11TH...
COMPUTER MODELS ARE SIMILAR AND INDICATE MAJURO WILL BE JUST WITHIN
AN AREA OF TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD RANGE
FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS AND 2 TO 4 INCHES THROUGH THE
NEXT 10 DAYS.

ATOLLS NORTH OF MAJURO AS OF JUNE 11TH...
COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE TRADE-WIND SHOWERS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD AT
TIMES ACROSS 10 DEGREES NORTH. ENEWETAK...RONGELAP AND UTIRIK AREAS
COULD RECEIVE ABOUT 0.5 INCH OF RAINFALL FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS AND UP
TO AROUND 1.0 INCH THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. WOTJE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 0.75 INCH TO 1.25 INCH THROUGH THE NEXT 10
DAYS.

ATOLLS SOUTH OF MAJURO AS OF JUNE 11TH...
COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE ADEQUATE RAINFALL BETWEEN 3N AND 8N WITH
RELATIVELY DRIER WEATHER SOUTH TOWARD THE TARAWA AREA. TRADE-WIND
CONVERGENCE SHOULD PRODUCE 3 TO 7 INCHES OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE
NEXT 10 DAYS FOR MOST ATOLLS SOUTH OF MAJURO BUT NORTH OF TARAWA.

FEDERATED STATES OF MICRONESIA...

CHUUK STATE AS OF JUNE 11TH...
COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS CHUUK STATE IN
THE COMING DAYS AND RAINFALL TOTALS OF AT LEAST 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF CHUUK STATE THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

YAP STATE AS OF JUNE 11TH...
COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY
BUT THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS MOST ISLANDS OF YAP STATE SHOULD
RECEIVE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL.

CNMI AND GUAM AS OF JUNE 11TH...
A TRANSITION FROM DRY SEASON TOWARD A NORMAL SEASONAL PATTERN OF
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FOR THE MARIANA ISLANDS. MOST COMPUTER MODELS
INDICATE RAINFALL TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES FOR THE NEXT
5 DAYS AND 2 TO 4 INCHES THE NEXT 10 DAYS. SAIPAN AND TINIAN WILL
RECEIVE AMOUNTS IN THE LOWER PART OF THESE RANGES.

OTHER IMPACTS...
JUNE 6TH CORAL REEF BLEACHING WATCH AREAS HAVE EXPANDED AGAIN TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS PALAU AND YAP INTO THE MARIANA ISLANDS AND SOUTHERN
CHUUK STATE WITH WARNING AREAS EAST OF THE PHILIPPINES. CONCERNED
PEOPLE OF MICRONESIA SHOULD MONITOR THE NOAA CORAL REEF WATCH
WEBSITE FOR BLEACHING ALERTS AND WARNINGS AT:
HTTP://CORALREEFWATCH.NOAA.GOV/SATELLITE/BAA/INDEX.HTML (LOWER CASE)
FOR THE NEXT FEW MONTHS.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ISSUANCE OF THE DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
WILL BE JUNE 25TH OR SOONER IF NECESSARY. KEEP TUNED TO LOCAL MEDIA
OUTLETS...YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND/OR YOUR LOCAL
DISASTER COORDINATING OFFICE FOR THE LATEST WEATHER AND DROUGHT
INFORMATION.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT
THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/...

NWS WFO GUAM...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GUAM/ /UNDER MENU ITEM CLIMATE...MORE/

PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER...
HTTP://WWW.SOEST.HAWAII.EDU/MET/ENSO/INDEX2.HTML

NOAA CORAL REEF WATCH BLEACHING...
HTTP://CORALREEFWATCH.NOAA.GOV/SATELLITE/BAA/INDEX.HTML

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

WE ACKNOWLEDGE OUR PARTNERS AT THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THE
PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CENTER...INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE
FOR CLIMATE AND SOCIETY...UNIVERSITY OF GUAM...UNIVERSITY OF
HAWAII...HONOLULU FORECAST OFFICE...THE WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT
CHUUK...YAP AND MAJURO...AND THE USAID/OFDA SUBREGIONAL OFFICE IN
MAJURO. WE ALSO THANK THE MAYOR OF WOTJE ATOLL AND KWAJALEIN RTS
WEATHER PEOPLE FOR THEIR IMPORTANT INPUT.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS MAY BE ADDRESSED TO THE FOLLOWING...

WFO TIYAN GUAM
3232 HUENEME RD
BARRIGADA GU 96913
PHONE: 671-472-0946
W-GUM.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV (LOWER CASE LETTERS)

$$

SIMPSON/GUARD
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
