Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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AXUS74 KHUN 211921 AAA
DGTHUN
ALC033-043-049-059-071-077-079-083-089-095-103-TNC051-103-127-261200-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
220 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2016

...DROUGHT LOOSENS ITS GRIP A LITTLE IN SOME AREAS...BUT EXTREME
DROUGHT REMAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA...

SYNOPSIS:
ACCORDING TO THE DROUGHT MONITOR VALID TUESDAY...JULY 19TH
2016...THE AREA OF EXTREME DROUGHT /D3/ REMAINS UNCHANGED OVER
NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA...WHICH INCLUDES NORTHEASTERN MADISON
COUNTY...MOST OF JACKSON COUNTY...AND THE NORTHERN THIRD OF DEKALB
COUNTY. RECENT RAINFALL BROUGHT A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN DROUGHT
CONDITIONS FROM SEVERE DROUGHT /D2/ TO MODERATE DROUGHT /D1/ ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN OF ALABAMA. PARTS OF
LIMESTONE...MORGAN...AND LAWRENCE COUNTIES WERE REMOVED FROM THE D2
CATEGORY AND PLACED IN MODERATE DROUGHT /D1/...WHILE ABNORMALLY DRY
CONDITIONS /D0/ WERE EXPANDED SOUTH/EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
ALABAMA...WHICH REPLACED AREAS WHICH WERE IN MODERATE DROUGHT.
SO...IN ADDITION TO MUCH OF LAUDERDALE...COLBERT...AND FRANKLIN
COUNTIES...WESTERN LIMESTONE AND LAWRENCE COUNTIES ARE NOW INCLUDED
IN D0 DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...CONDITIONS REMAINED THE SAME FROM
LAST WEEK...WITH EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS /D3/ IN FAR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF FRANKLIN COUNTY AND IN EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN LINCOLN
COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS RANGE FROM MODERATE /D1/ TO
SEVERE DROUGHT /D2/.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS:
STATE AND LOCAL DECLARATIONS: THE ALABAMA DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMIC AND
COMMUNITY AFFAIRS (ADECA) OFFICE OF WATER RESOURCES CURRENTLY HAS ALL
OF OUR COUNTIES IN A `DROUGHT WATCH`. THIS MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE
BEING MONITORED FOR WIDESPREAD DROUGHT IMPACTS IF NO CONSISTENT
RAINFALL OCCURS OVER THE COMING WEEKS. THE STATE OF TENNESSEE HAS NO
OFFICIAL DROUGHT DECLARATIONS AT THIS TIME.

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS:
PER THE LATEST CROP AND PROGRESS CONDITION REPORT FROM THE USDA
NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS SERVICE...AGRICULTURAL EXTENSION
AGENTS IN THE REGION CONTINUE TO REPORT THAT CROPS ARE STRESSED.
COLBERT COUNTY FARM SERVICE AGENTS SAY THAT SOME RAINFALL HAS BEEN
RECEIVED OVER THE LAST WEEK...BUT THAT DROUGHT CONDITIONS STILL
LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTY. THE FARM SERVICE AGENCY IN
MARSHALL COUNTY SAYS THAT THE COUNTY HAS RECEIVED SOME MUCH-NEEDED
SCATTERED RAINFALL OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS...AND THAT CROPS AND
GRASSLANDS HAVE RESPONDED WELL. HOWEVER...THE RAINFALL HAS BEEN VERY
SPORADIC...AND SOME CROPS HAVE RECEIVED LITTLE TO NO RAIN...WHILE
THE CORN CROP HAS SUFFERED THE MOST.

IN TENNESSEE...FARM SERVICE AGENCIES IN MOOR AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES
REPORT SOME IMPROVEMENT IN AGRICULTURAL CONDITIONS DUE TO SOME RECENT
SHOWER ACTIVITY.

COUNTIES THAT ARE IN EXTREME DROUGHT /D3/ AUTOMATICALLY QUALIFY FOR
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE (USDA) PRIMARY NATURAL DISASTER
STATUS. AS OF JULY 13TH...THE USDA OFFICIALLY DESIGNATED
JACKSON...DEKALB...MARSHALL AND MADISON COUNTIES AS PRIMARY NATURAL
DISASTER AREAS DUE TO DAMAGES AND LOSSES CAUSED BY THE RECENT
DROUGHT. IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...FRANKLIN AND LINCOLN
COUNTIES ARE ALSO INCLUDED. PER THE USDA...THE CONTIGUOUS COUNTIES
OF MOORE...LIMESTONE...MORGAN...AND CULLMAN ARE ALSO INCLUDED IN THE
DISASTER DECLARATION. ANY FURTHER NATURAL DISASTER DECLARATIONS
PERTAINING TO DROUGHT WILL BE UPDATED IN THE NEXT DROUGHT STATEMENT
ISSUANCE NEXT WEEK.

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS:
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO ALABAMA FORESTRY COMMISSION FIRE ALERTS OR
DROUGHT EMERGENCIES ISSUED. STATE FORESTER GREG PATE IS STILL URGING
EVERYONE TO USE ALL NECESSARY SAFETY PRECAUTIONS WHEN DOING ANY TYPE
OF OUTDOOR BURNING. TO OBTAIN A BURN PERMIT...CONTACT THE ALABAMA
FORESTRY COMMISSION DISPATCH CENTER FOR YOUR COUNTY. LOCAL COUNTY
AND CITY LAWS MAY RESTRICT OUTDOOR BURNING HOWEVER...SO BURNERS ARE
RESPONSIBLE FOR CONTACTING THEIR LOCAL GOVERNMENT FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.

THE TENNESSEE DIVISION OF FORESTRY HAS NO CURRENT BURN RESTRICTIONS
IN PLACE AND BURN PERMITS ARE CURRENTLY NOT REQUIRED BY THE
DIVISION. HOWEVER...BURNERS ARE URGED TO CHECK FOR ANY LOCAL
RESTRICTIONS PRIOR TO CONDUCTING BURNING ACTIVITY.

THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI) AVAILABLE FROM THE U.S. FOREST
SERVICE WILDLAND FIRE ASSESSMENT SYSTEM INDICATES VALUES ARE AROUND
500 IN LINCOLN/MOORE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE...AND BETWEEN 500 AND 600 ACROSS MOST OF NORTHER ALABAMA.
A SMALL PORTION OF THE BANKHEAD NATIONAL FOREST IN SOUTHERN LAWRENCE
COUNTY...AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MARSHALL COUNTY ALABAMA OFFICIALLY
HAS VALUES BETWEEN 600 AND 700. VALUES IN EXCESS OF 600 ARE OFTEN
ASSOCIATED WITH MORE SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS. INTENSE...DEEP
BURNING FIRES WITH SIGNIFICANT DOWNWIND SPOTTING...AND BURNING OF
LIVE FUELS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH KBDI VALUES ABOVE 600.

CLIMATE SUMMARY:
OVER THE LAST WEEK...TEMPERATURES HAVE AVERAGED
ABOVE NORMAL. PRECIPITATION VARIED ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE PAST
WEEK. IN NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE...AMOUNTS WERE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. AMOUNTS WERE
GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL IN PORTIONS IN EASTERN COLBERT AND LAUDERDALE
COUNTIES...AND ALONG A SWATH FROM MOULTON AND PORTIONS OF THE
BANKHEAD NATIONAL FOREST...THROUGH DECATUR...AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN
MADISON COUNTY.

DURING THE SPRING AND INTO EARLY SUMMER...TEMPERATURES HAVE AVERAGED
ABOVE NORMAL AND PRECIPITATION HAS AVERAGED BELOW NORMAL. IN THE
HEART OF THE WORST DROUGHT CONDITIONS WHERE THE DRIEST CONDITIONS
HAVE OCCURRED...THE SCOTTSBORO COOP SITE AT WWIC IN DOWNTOWN
SCOTTSBORO RECORDED 11.55 INCHES OF RAINFALL SINCE MARCH 1ST. NORMAL
RAINFALL FROM MARCH 1ST THROUGH JULY 1ST IS 21.84 INCHES. THIS IS
CURRENTLY DRIER THAN THE SAME NEARLY 5-MONTH TIME PERIOD IN 2007.

AT HUNTSVILLE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...FOR THE SAME TIME PERIOD
(MARCH 1ST THROUGH JULY 1ST)...OBSERVED RAINFALL WAS 17.01 INCHES.
NORMAL RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME IS 22.21 INCHES. TEMPERATURES
DURING THIS PERIOD ALSO RANK THE 3RD WARMEST ON RECORD.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK:
VERY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY DECREASING NEXT WEEK. CHANCES
FOR RAINFALL WILL LIKEWISE INCREASE SLIGHTLY THIS WEEKEND...WITH
SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.

THE OUTLOOK FOR WEEK TWO /JUL 28TH - AUG 3RD/ FROM THE CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER STRONGLY FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
SLIGHTLY FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE REGION. THE
OUTLOOK FOR AUGUST FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES....WITH EQUAL
CHANCES FOR BELOW, NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

THE LATEST SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK VALID FROM JULY 21ST TO OCTOBER
21ST INDICATES THAT DROUGHT IS LIKELY TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE
WHERE JUST ABNORMALLY DRY /D0/ CONDITIONS CURRENTLY EXIST.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS THAT RECEIVED BENEFICIAL RAINFALL FROM THE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE PAST WEEK ROSE TO SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SINCE THAT
TIME...HOWEVER...THE DRIER CONDITIONS HAVE CAUSED RIVER AND CREEK
LEVELS TO FALL ACROSS THE AREA. SEVEN-DAY STREAMFLOW AVERAGES ARE
RELATIVELY LOW FOR MOST LOCATIONS (AGAIN, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED DECENT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST
WEEK). SEVERAL EXAMPLES ARE:

THE PAINT ROCK RIVER (3RD PERCENTILE)
LIMESTONE CREEK AT CAPSHAW NEAR ATHENS (5TH PERCENTILE)
ELK RIVER AT FAYETTEVILLE (13TH PERCENTILE)
SIPSEY FORK IN THE BANKHEAD NATIONAL FOREST (23RD PERCENTILE)

LAKE LEVELS HAVE LARGELY BEEN UNAFFECTED BY THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS
SO FAR...WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS. LAKES WITHIN THE HEAVILY REGULATED
TENNESSEE RIVER SYSTEM ARE OPERATING WITHIN NORMAL POOL LEVELS.
ALTHOUGH...TIMS FORD LAKE CONTINUES TO OPERATE BELOW THE NORMAL
GUIDECURVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BUT IS STILL ABOVE THE MINIMUM
RECREATION LEVEL. LITTLE BEAR CREEK IS OPERATING BELOW THE NORMAL
GUIDE CURVE AND HAS FALLEN TO THE LOW NOTCH IN RECENT WEEKS.
PICKWICK LAKE IS OPERATING AT THE LOW END OF THE OPERATING ZONE.
ALABAMA POWER REPORTS THAT DRY CONDITIONS ARE HAVING AN IMPACT ON
SOME LAKE LEVELS UNDER THEIR CONTROL...INCLUDING LEWIS SMITH LAKE.
THE LAKE IS OPERATING BELOW ITS NORMAL GUIDE CURVE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO FALL WITHOUT THE NECESSARY
RAINFALL TO MAINTAIN NORMAL POOL.

ACCORDING TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THE LATEST DAILY SOIL
MOISTURE RANKINGS AS OF JULY 20TH RANGED MARKEDLY. IN PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA...SOIL MOISTURE VALUES ARE IN THE 1ST TO 5TH
PERCENTILES. IN NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA...VALUES RANK ABOVE THE 30TH
PERCENTILE. IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...VALUES GENERALLY RANK
BETWEEN THE 10TH AND 30TH PERCENTILES.

THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY GROUNDWATER WELL SITES IN LAWRENCE AND
CULLMAN COUNTIES INDICATE THAT GROUNDWATER LEVELS FELL BELOW THE
DAILY MEDIAN VALUE DURING THE MARCH TO LATE APRIL PERIOD AND HAVE
SINCE REMAINED BELOW NORMAL SINCE THAT TIME. GROUNDWATER LEVELS AT
THE WELL SITE IN CULLMAN CONTINUE TO SHOW GRADUAL DECLINES AND BELOW
NORMAL VALUES...BUT DECLINES IN GROUNDWATER LEVELS THIS TIME OF YEAR
ARE TYPICAL. GROUNDWATER LEVELS AT THE WELL IN LAWRENCE COUNTY HAVE
BEEN FLUCTUATING SINCE LATE MAY...WITH A GRADUAL DECLINE IN VALUES
NOW NOTED OVER THE PAST MONTH OR SO. THE GROUNDWATER WELL SITES IN
JACKSON AND MADISON COUNTIES OPERATED BY THE ALABAMA GEOLOGICAL
SURVEY SHOW GROUNDWATER LEVELS BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...WITH VALUES HAVING FALLEN MARKEDLY SINCE LATE APRIL.

THE OUTLOOK FOR SOIL MOISTURE AND STREAMFLOWS OVER THE NEXT WEEK IS
FOR SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT DUE TO EXPECTED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
STREAMFLOWS MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE TEMPORARY RISES ESPECIALLY AFTER
EXPECTED RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THESE EFFECTS ARE
LIKELY TO BE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED SINCE THE LONGER-TERM FAVORS A
RETURN TO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE:
THE NEXT DROUGHT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED NEXT THURSDAY...JULY 28TH.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...
/USE LOWER CASE/

FOR MORE DROUGHT INFORMATION...VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE. THERE YOU CAN FIND MORE DROUGHT
RELATED INFORMATION BY CLICKING ON THE DROUGHT LINK NEAR THE BOTTOM
OF THE PAGE.

FOR INFORMATION ABOUT ALABAMA DROUGHT DECLARATIONS...VISIT
HTTP://WWW.ADECA.ALABAMA.GOV/DIVISIONS/OWR/PAGES/DEFAULT.ASPX

FOR INFORMATION FROM THE ALABAMA FORESTRY COMMISSION...VISIT
HTTP://FORESTRY.ALABAMA.GOV/

RADAR ESTIMATED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS CAN BE OBTAINED FROM...
HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/PRECIP

STREAMFLOWS ARE OBTAINED FROM THE USGS AT...
HTTP://WATERWATCH.USGS.GOV/INDEX.PHP

LAKE LEVELS FOR THE TENNESSEE RIVER LAKES CAN BE OBTAINED FROM
HTTP://WWW.TVA.COM/LAKEINFO/

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS...

SOME DATA USED IN THIS STATEMENT WERE PROVIDED BY THE U.S.
DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE...THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY...THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AUTHORITY...AND THE STATES OF ALABAMA AND
TENNESSEE.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

FOR QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ON THE DROUGHT...CONTACT:
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE
320A SPARKMAN DRIVE
HUNTSVILLE AL 35805
PHONE: 256-890-8503
SR-HUN.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV

$$

WHITE/AMIN



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