Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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FGUS73 KDTX 201809 CCA
ESFDTX
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PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK ...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
412 PM EST THU FEB 19 2015


...2015 SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NUMBER 1...

Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service probabilistic outlook
 for the major rivers in the Saginaw River Basin and the Clinton
 ...Rouge...Huron and Raisin river basins...

The Detroit/Pontiac office of the National Weather service has
implemented Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) for all
the model locations in the above mentioned basins. AHPS enables
the National Weather Service to provide Long-Range Probabilistic
River Outlooks. This service is also available on the internet
at www.crh.noaa.gov/dtx.

In the table below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is more then HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher then normal. When the value of CS is
less then HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.


...TABLE    PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD: 2/23/2015 - 5/24/2015

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:Clinton River
Clinton Township 16.0   17.0   19.0    30   16    9   <5   <5   <5
:North Branch Clinton River
Mt Clemens       15.0   16.0   18.0    47    6   30   <5    9   <5
:Clinton River
Mt Clemens       16.0   17.0   18.0     6   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:River Rouge
Detroit          15.0   18.0   20.0    38   23   10   <5   <5   <5
:Middle River Rouge
Dearborn Hts     10.0   11.0   12.0     6   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Lower River Rouge
Inkster          10.0   12.0   13.0    63   24   21    9   <5   <5
:Mill Creek
Dexter           12.0   13.0   14.0    35   10   16   <5   <5   <5
:Huron River
Hamburg           6.5    7.0    7.5    44   36   21   24   12   13
Ann Arbor        16.0   17.0   18.0    12    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
:River Raisin
Tecumseh         13.0   14.0   15.0    <5    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
Adrian           18.0   19.0   20.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Blissfield      683.0  685.0  687.0    16   16    6    6   <5   <5
Dundee          650.0  652.0  653.0    16   15    6    6   <5   <5
Monroe            9.0   10.0   11.0    16   18   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Pine River
Midland          12.0   14.0   16.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Tittabawassee River
Midland          24.0   25.0   28.0    10   13    7   12   <5   <5
:Shiawassee River
Owosso            7.0    9.0   10.0    33   18   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Kearsley Creek
Davison          10.0   11.0   12.0    32   16   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Flint River
Flint            13.0   15.0   17.0     7    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Cass River
Cass City        14.0   18.0   20.0     7   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Vassar           14.0   15.0   18.0    13    9    9    7   <5   <5
Frankenmuth      17.0   20.0   25.0    36   23    9    7   <5   <5
:Saginaw River
Saginaw          17.0   19.0   24.0    44   35   13   15   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET


...PAST PRECIPITATION...
Precipitation across the area during the fall was below normal.  So far this
winter precipitation has been below average but snow fall slightly above.

...RIVER CONDITIONS...
A very cold November got river ice formation started early.  A milder December
erased that but very cold January and especially February has led to mostly
ice covered rivers.  Flow is average to below for this time of year.

...SOIL CONDITIONS AND FROST DEPTH...
With a drier then average fall and winter so far...soil moisture is slightly
drier then average.  Frost depths across southeastern Michigan range mostly in the
two to three foot range.

...SNOW COVER AND LIQUID WATER CONTENT...
Snow cover ranges from around 5 inches across the far south up to 16 inches elsewhere.
Water content in the pack is generally 1 to 3 inches.

...WEATHER OUTLOOK...
The out look for the next 14 days calls for much below average temperatures and below
average precipitation.

...FLOOD SUMMARY OUTLOOK...
Current conditions lead to a lower probablility for flooding the rest of this winter and
spring.  Any river flooding will be rain event driven.  However...with rivers mostly ice
covered with thicker then average ice...flooding from ice jams remain a higher threat.


The next hydrologic outlook will be issued March 5.

Additional supportive data and explanation are available on the internet at
www.crh.noaa.gov/dtx



$$

drc-



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