Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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FGUS73 KDTX 081532
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MIC017-049-091-093-099-111-115-125-145-147-155-157-161-163-081556-
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK ...RETRANSMITTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1032 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2016

 ...2016 SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NUMBER 2...

Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service probabilistic outlook
 for the major rivers in the Saginaw River basin and the Clinton
 ...Rouge...Huron and Raisin River basins...

The Detroit/Pontiac office of the National Weather Service has
implemented Advance Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) for all
the model locations in the above mentioned basins. AHPS enables
the National Weather Service to provide long range probabilistic
river outlooks. This service is also available on the internet
at WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX.

In the table below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is more then HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher then normal. When the value of CS is
less then HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.


:...Southeast Michigan Streams - Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
                   Valid period: 03/6/2016 - 06/4/2016

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
North Branch Clinton River
MT Clemens       15.0   16.0   18.0    <5    8   <5   <5   <5   <5
Clinton River
Clinton TWP      16.0   17.0   19.0    13   18   <5    5   <5   <5
MT Clemens       16.0   17.0   18.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Rouge River
Detroit          15.0   18.0   20.0    33   38   <5   <5   <5   <5
Middle Rouge river
Dearborn Heights 10.0   11.0   12.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Lower Rouge River
Inkster          10.0   12.0   13.0    23   25    9    9   <5    5
Mill Creek
Dexter           12.0   13.0   14.0    <5   11   <5   <5   <5   <5
Huron River
Hamburg           6.5    7.0    7.5    21   38   10   26    6   15
Ann Arbor        16.0   17.0   18.0    <5   10   <5   <5   <5   <5
River Raisin
Tecumseh         13.0   14.0   15.0    <5    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
Adrian           18.0   19.0   20.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Blissfield      683.0  685.0  687.0     9   18   <5    7   <5   <5
Dundee          650.0  652.0  653.0     8   16   <5    7   <5    6
Monroe            9.0   10.0   11.0    10   19   <5    5   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET


:...Saginaw River Basin streams - Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
                   Valid period: 03/6/2016 - 06/4/2016

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
Pine River
Midland          12.0   14.0   16.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Tittabawassee River
Midland          24.0   25.0   28.0     9   15    8   13   <5   <5
Shiawassee River
Owosso            7.0    9.0   10.0    18   20   <5   <5   <5   <5
Kearsley Creek
Davison          10.0   11.0   12.0    12   17   <5   <5   <5   <5
Flint River
Flint            13.0   15.0   17.0     6    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
Cass River
Cass City        14.0   18.0   20.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Vassar           14.0   15.0   18.0    <5    8   <5   <5   <5   <5
Frankenmuth      17.0   20.0   25.0    13   23   <5    8   <5   <5
Saginaw River
Saginaw          17.0   19.0   24.0    16   24    7   13   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET



...PAST PRECIPITATION...
Precipitation this winter is around average with snowfall ranging from around average
in the south to above average to the north.

...RIVER CONDITIONS...
Most river base flows are now at to above average do to recent snow melt.
with most rivers partially ice covered to ice free.

...SOIL CONDITIONS AND FROST DEPTH...
Soil moisture is now above average because of the snow melt. Frost depths range from
zero across the south to around an ince in the north.

...SNOW COVER AND LIQUID WATER CONTENT...
Snow cover ranges from about two inches across the south to around 10 inches in the north.
Snow water equivalence ranges from about a tenth south to around an inch in the deepest
snow pack.

...WEATHER OUTLOOK...
The outlook for the next 14 days calls for above average temperatures and precipitation.

..FLOOD SUMMARY OUTLOOK...
Chances for flooding this spring have increased since the previous outlook two weeks ago
due to the past two major snow storms and snow melt.  Though the chances have increase,
the chances for flooding, especially moderate or major this spring still remains below
average.

This is the last scheduled spring hydrologic outlook for this year.  Outlooks may still
be issued but only event driven.

Additional supportive data and explanations are available on the internet at
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX



$$

DRC



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