Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FGUS74 KHGX 171815
ESFHGX
180615-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON, TX
115 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2014

...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) LONG RANGE
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK FOR THE LAVACA-NAVIDAD RIVER BASIN IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...


THE HOUSTON/GALVESTON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE HAS
IMPLEMENTED ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) FOR THE
LAVACA-NAVIDAD RIVER BASIN IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS. AHPS ENABLES THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC
OUTLOOKS. THIS SERVICE IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET.


IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE
NEXT 90 DAYS.  EXAMPLE: THE NAVIDAD RIVER AT STRANE PARK HAS A
FLOOD STAGE OF 24 FEET. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THE STRANE PARK
FORECAST POINT WILL RISE ABOVE 10.2 FEET DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS.


        CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                  VALID [ 7/16/2014 - 10/15/2014 ]


LOCATION     FS(FT)    90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%
--------------------------------------------------------------------
TRES PALACIOS RIVER
 MIDFIELD       24.0   7.7  9.1 10.4 11.6 12.7 15.2 17.6 24.9 28.8
SANDY CREEK
 CORDELE        18.0   5.7  6.0  6.6  7.6  8.5  9.0 10.6 11.3 15.5
EAST MUSTANG CREEK
 LOUISE         19.0   6.2  6.8  7.6  8.0  9.0 10.8 13.3 15.1 21.1
WEST MUSTANG CREEK
 GANADO         20.0   7.2  8.1  8.9 10.1 10.3 11.2 12.5 14.2 16.4
NAVIDAD RIVER
 SUBLIME        24.0   6.4  6.9  7.5  8.6  9.3 10.4 12.0 15.1 21.2
 SPEAKS         24.0   4.4  4.4  5.2  6.1  7.6  9.1  9.7 11.4 20.9
 MORALES        29.0   7.7  8.1  9.1 10.3 11.7 12.6 15.0 16.8 28.0
 STRANE PARK    24.0   6.4  7.0  7.5  9.1 10.2 11.2 13.1 15.3 25.0
LAVACA RIVER
 HALLETTESVILLE 27.0   4.5  4.8  5.4  6.2  6.6  6.9  7.8  8.9 11.8
 EDNA           21.0   7.3  7.8  8.5 10.0 11.3 12.5 14.2 18.9 21.0


THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS NUMBERS THAT ARE
CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SCENARIOS FROM 50 YEARS OF HISTORICAL
CLIMATOLOGICAL AND STREAM FLOW DATA. THESE NUMBERS ALSO TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER AND SOIL MOISTURE.
BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS...THE
LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN
BE DETERMINED.

ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATION ARE AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET AT:   WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/CGI-BIN/AHPS.CGI?HGX
(INTERNET ADDRESS IS ALL LOWER CASE).

LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED AROUND THE THIRD
THURSDAY OF EVERY MONTH

$$




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