Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FGUS74 KJAN 060032
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HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
630 PM CST THU MAR 05 2015


...SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...AND NORTH CENTRAL...CENTRAL AND
MUCH OF SOUTH MISSISSIPPI...AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER...


SYNOPSIS...


ACROSS THE WFO JACKSON COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA)...TEMPERATURES
SINCE THE FIRST OF THE YEAR HAVE BEEN BELOW NORMAL. FEBRUARY WAS THE
COLDEST MONTH WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 4 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

RAINFALL SINCE THE FIRST OF THE YEAR HAS BEEN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL
FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS TO
SOUTHERN CARROLL COUNTY TO LOWNDES COUNTY IN MISSISSIPPI. A NARROW
BAND OF AT OR ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED FROM NORTHERN
MARION COUNTY TO LAUDERDALE COUNTY MISSISSIPPI. AN AREA OF AT OR
ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED FROM VICKSBURG TO JACKSON
MISSISSIPPI. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA RECEIVED FROM 40 TO 70
PERCENT OF NORMAL RAINFALL.

RAINFALL OVER THE LAST TWO WEEKS HAS PRODUCED ABOVE NORMAL SOIL
MOISTURE CONDITIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BIG BLACK RIVER.
ALSO...ABOVE NORMAL SOIL CONDITIONS EXIST IN NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
ABOVE INTERSTATE 20 AND SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE
CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED BELOW INTERSTATE 20 IN NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
AND ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. AT OR JUST BELOW
NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED IN SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.



LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM ARKANSAS CITY AR TO NATCHEZ MS...


THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY RANGED
FROM 2 TO 20 INCHES WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS IN NORTH MINNESOTA AND
WISCONSIN. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENCE RANGED FROM .5 TO 4 INCHES. ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY, THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOW RANGED FROM .5 TO 20
INCHES WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS IN KENTUCKY. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENCE
ALSO RANGED FROM 0.5 TO 4 INCHES.

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF
THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. THROUGH MUCH OF THE EARLY
WINTER, MUCH BELOW NORMAL STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED
OVER THE LOWER OHIO RIVER WHILE BELOW NORMAL STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS
WERE OBSERVED IN THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. OVER THE PAST TWO
WEEKS...SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED DUE TO ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION. THIS HAS LED TO NORMAL STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS OVER THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

DURING THE WINTER, SEASONAL FLOODING HAS OCCURRED OVER THE SMALLER
TRIBUTARIES OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. NO FLOODING HAS OCCURRED ON
THE LOWER OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI RIVERS THIS SEASON. THE OHIO RIVER AT
CAIRO ILLINOIS IS EXPECTED TO GO ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE FOR THE
FIRST TIME BY THE 10TH OF THIS MONTH. CURRENTLY, MINOR RISES ARE
OCCURRING FROM ARKANSAS CITY ARKANSAS TO NATCHEZ MISSISSIPPI. MORE
MODERATE BELOW FLOOD STAGE RISES ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 3 TO 7
DAYS.

SEE THE CHART BELOW FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS SHOWING PERCENT OF NORMAL
STREAMFLOWS:

                                             3/4
MISSISSIPPI RIVER              THEBES IL     65%
OHIO RIVER                      CAIRO IL     61%
MISSISSIPPI RIVER             MEMPHIS TN     56%
MISSISSIPPI RIVER       ARKANSAS CITY AR     75%
MISSISSIPPI RIVER           VICKSBURG MS     87%
MISSISSIPPI RIVER             NATCHEZ MS     96%


BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS...AND NORMAL
SPRING RAINFALL PATTERNS:

AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER.

NOTE:
THE MAGNITUDE OF FUTURE CRESTS WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT AND
EXTENT OF ANY UPSTREAM ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW COVER AND RESULTANT
SNOWMELT; COUPLED WITH THE FREQUENCY...INTENSITY...AND EXTENT OF
SPRING RAINS.



OUACHITA/BLACK BASINS OF ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA...

STREAMFLOWS ARE NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL IN ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA.
SOIL MOISTURE IS NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL AND MINOR FLOODING IS
FORECAST FOR THATCHER LOCK & DAM. NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OUACHITA AND BLACK RIVER BASINS
WHICH INCLUDES THE TENSAS..BAYOU MACON...BAYOU BARTHOLOMEW AND THE
BOEUF RIVERS. FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

OBSERVED DAILY STREAMFLOWS AS A PERCENT OF MEAN ARE GIVEN BELOW:

                                             3/4
OUACHITA RIVER                 MONROE LA    143%
BAYOU BARTHOLOMEW            PORTLAND AR    215%
BAYOU BARTHOLOMEW               JONES LA     96%
TENSAS                         TENDAL LA    120%


PERCENT OF AVAILABLE RESERVOIR FLOOD CONTROL STORAGE IN THE UPPER
OUACHITA GIVEN BELOW:


                                            3/4
                        LAKE OUACHITA AR    100%
                          DEGRAY RES. AR    100%
                         LAKE GREESON AR    100%


BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOWS...AND NORMAL SPRING
RAINFALL PATTERNS:

AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED OVER THE OUACHITA AND BLACK
RIVER BASINS WHICH INCLUDES THE TENSAS RIVER...BAYOU MACON...BAYOU
BARTHOLOMEW...AND THE BOEUF RIVER.



BIG BLACK RIVER AND HOMOCHITTO BASINS...

HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENTS OVER THE PAST MONTH HAVE CAUSED SEASONAL
FLOODING ALONG THE BIG BLACK RIVER.  SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT IS ABOVE
NORMAL. MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AT THIS TIME AND IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THE HOMOCHITTO RIVER IS BELOW FLOOD STAGE. SOIL MOISTURE IS AT OR
JUST BELOW NORMAL. NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

OBSERVED DAILY STREAMFLOWS AS A PERCENT OF MEAN ARE GIVEN BELOW:

                                             3/4
BIG BLACK RIVER                  WEST MS     99%
BIG BLACK RIVER                BOVINA MS    179%
HOMOCHITTO RIVER              ROSETTA MS     61%


BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOWS...AND NORMAL SPRING
RAINFALL PATTERNS:

AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED FOR THE BIG BLACK RIVER AND
HOMOCHITTO RIVER BASINS.



LOWER YAZOO RIVER BASIN...

STREAMFLOWS ARE NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE YAZOO RIVER
BASIN. SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT IS ABOVE NORMAL. MINOR TO MODERATE
BELOW FLOOD STAGE RISES MAY OCCUR ALONG THE MAINSTEM OF THE LOWER
YAZOO RIVER AND ALONG ITS TRIBUTARIES AS ICE...SLEET...AND SNOW MELT
FROM TODAYS WINTER WEATHER EVENT.

OBSERVED PERCENT OF NORMAL STREAMFLOWS ARE GIVEN BELOW:

                                             3/5
BIG SUNFLOWER RIVER         SUNFLOWER MS    219%


THE PERCENT OF AVAILABLE FLOOD CONTROL STORAGE IS GIVEN BELOW:


                                             3/4
                       ARKABUTLA RES. MS     80%
                          SARDIS RES. MS     87%
                            ENID RES. MS     83%
                         GRENADA RES. MS     83%


BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOWS...AND NORMAL SPRING
RAINFALL PATTERNS:

AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED FOR THE YAZOO RIVER BASIN.



PEARL RIVER BASIN...

OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS... HEAVY PRECIPITATION CAUSED MINOR FLOODING
ACROSS THE UPPER PEARL RIVER BASIN. HOWEVER... ELEVATED LEVELS
ARE RECEDING AND WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. THE
LOWER PEARL RIVER IS STILL SEEING RISES FROM UPSTREAM AND MINOR
FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EVEN
WITH RAIN...THE SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT IS NEAR NORMAL.

OBSERVED DAILY STREAMFLOWS AS A PERCENT OF MEAN ARE GIVEN BELOW:

                                              3/4
PEARL RIVER                  CARTHAGE MS     129%
PEARL RIVER                   JACKSON MS     146%
PEARL RIVER                MONTICELLO MS     179%


BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOWS...AND NORMAL SPRING
RAINFALL PATTERNS:

AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PEARL RIVER BASIN.



PASCAGOULA BASIN WHICH INCLUDES THE LEAF...CHUNKY...AND CHICKASAWHAY
RIVERS...

BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER WINTER HAS LED TO DROUGHT CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI. STREAMFLOWS AND SOIL
MOISTURE CONTENT REMAIN AT OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS. NO
FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.


OBSERVED DAILY STREAMFLOWS AS A PERCENT OF MEAN ARE GIVEN BELOW:

                                              3/4
LEAF RIVER                HATTIESBURG MS      92%
TALLAHALA CREEK                LAUREL MS      98%
CHICKASAWHAY               ENTERPRISE MS      91%


BASED ON CURRENT SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOWS...AND NORMAL SPRING
RAINFALL PATTERNS:

AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PASCAGOULA RIVER
BASIN.



TOMBIGBEE RIVER IN MISSISSIPPI WHICH INCLUDES THE NOXUBEE RIVER AND
THE TIBBEE AND LUXAPALLILA CREEKS...

RAINFALL OVER THE LAST MONTH HAS BEEN AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS
THE BASIN. MINOR TO MODERATE RISES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE LAST
MONTH WITH NO FLOODING OBSERVED ALONG STREAMS OR CREEKS IN THE WFO
JACKSON HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. SOIL MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY AT OR
JUST ABOVE NORMAL. NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL BELOW FLOOD
STAGE RISES AS ICE...SLEET...AND SNOW MELTS FROM TODAYS WINTER STORM.


OBSERVED DAILY STREAMFLOWS AS A PERCENT OF MEAN ARE GIVEN BELOW:

                                              3/5
TOMBIGBEE RIVER                  BIGBEE MS   197%
LUXAPALLILA CREEK              COLUMBUS MS   214%
NOXUBEE RIVER                     MACON MS   107%


BASED ON CURRENT SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOWS...AND NORMAL SPRING
RAINFALL PATTERNS:


AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TOMBIGBEE AND
TRIBUTARIES IN THE WFO JACKSON HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA.



EXTENDED TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK...

THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
INDICATES NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI AND MISSOURI RIVER BASINS.
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI...OHIO...AND TENNESSEE RIVER BASINS ARE
SHOWING ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ACROSS
THE WFO JACKSON HYDROLOGIC AREA...ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

THE 30-DAY OUTLOOK INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES OF NORMAL PRECIPITATION
FOR THE OHIO AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS AND HIGHER CHANCES
FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS. THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK INDICATES HIGHER
CHANCES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. ACROSS THE WFO JACKSON HYDROLOGIC SERVICE
AREA...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND EQUAL CHANCES OF NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED.

THE 90-DAY OUTLOOK INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES OF NORMAL PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE ENTIRE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. EQUAL CHANCES OF NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER
VALLEYS WITH HIGHER CHANCES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ACROSS THE JACKSON HYDROLOGIC
AREA...EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND EQUAL CHANCES OF NORMAL
PRECIPITATION.


THIS WILL BE THE LAST SCHEDULED SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR 2015.



NOTE:
STREAMFLOW DATA ARE PROVIDED BY THE U.S. ARMY CORPS OF
ENGINEERS AND THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY.

$$

MVP



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