Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FGUS73 KMQT 031243
ESFMQT
MIC013-053-061-071-103-131-032100-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
843 AM EST THU APR 3 2014

...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NUMBER 3...

THIS SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK IS FOR THE RIVERS OF
CENTRAL AND WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.

...FLOOD OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS...

THE RISK OF FLOODING FROM THIS SPRING IS NEAR NORMAL.

...PAST PRECIPITATION...

FALL PRECIPITATION WAS ABOVE NORMAL. PRECIPITATION SO FAR THIS
WINTER HAS BEEN ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN...WITH NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ELSEWHERE.
HOWEVER...WITH RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES THIS WINTER...LITTLE OF THE
SNOW THAT HAS FALLEN HAS MELTED. NORMAL WINTERS SEE A FEW PERIODS OF
WARMER TEMPERATURES THAT MELT THE FIRST ROUNDS OF SNOW.
THEREFORE...THE AMOUNT OF SNOW AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT ON THE
GROUND IS NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL IN MANY LOCATIONS.

...RIVER CONDITIONS...

ICE COVERAGE ON RIVERS AND THE GREAT LAKES IS EXTENSIVE AND ABOVE
NORMAL DUE TO RECORD COLD THIS WINTER. ICE JAM POTENTIAL DURING
SPRING BREAK UP WILL BE HIGHER DEPENDING ON THE NATURE OF THE BREAK
UP.

...SOIL CONDITIONS AND FROST DEPTHS...

SOIL MOISTURE IS NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL. FROST DEPTH IS ABOVE NORMAL
AND GENERALLY BETWEEN 8 AND 20 INCHES UNDER SNOW COVERED SOILS.

...SNOW COVER AND LIQUID WATER CONTENT...

            LATEST INFO          MONTH EARLIER
LOCATION    SNOW  SNOW  DATE     SNOW  SNOW  DATE
            DEPTH WATER          DEPTH WATER

            DATA IN INCHES

IRONWOOD    22    6.2   3/31     28    7.6   3/3
BESSEMER    21    5.3   3/31     26    3.6   3/3
LAKE LINDEN 32    6.6   3/26     37    8.2   2/25
PAINESDALE                       54   14.7   3/4
CALUMET     29    9.0   4/1      40   11.9   3/4
CHASSELL    29    3.8   3/31     34    4.7   3/3
WATTON      22    4.0   3/31     27    4.0   3/2
COVINGTON   27    5.1   3/30     27    3.9   2/28
NESTORIA    36    6.9   3/30     36    4.2   2/28
NET RIVER   26    5.3   3/30     24    4.2   2/28
AMASA       24    6.4   3/30     26    3.9   2/28
ELMWOOD     26    5.8   3/31     29    4.6   2/28
BEECHWOOD   26    6.6   3/31     26    4.6   2/28
STAMBAUGH   12    3.5   3/31     22    4.6   3/3
IRON RIVER  29    4.1   3/30     27    5.3   2/28
MICHIGAMME  26    6.1   3/30     22    5.0   2/28
ALPHA       20    4.7   3/30     23    4.3   2/28
BRULE       16    5.0   3/31     23    4.2   2/28
TWIN FALLS  15    4.3   3/31
NORWAY      15    4.8   3/31     21    4.0   2/25
NESTORIA    36    6.9   3/30     36    4.2   2/28
PESHEKEE    36    6.4   3/30     34    5.6   2/28
CHAMPION    31    6.6   3/30     28    5.3   2/28
REPUBLIC    33    7.1   3/30     29    5.3   2/28
NEGAUNEE    30    8.7   4/2      33    8.0   3/5
HARVEY      31    5.5   3/29     26    5.0   3/1
MARQUETTE   19    4.5   3/24     16    3.5   3/3
CHANNING    23    6.2   3/30     25    4.2   2/28
GEMINI LAKE                      38    9.2   2/23

...WEATHER OUTLOOK...

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WILL LIKELY BRING AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW
WATER TO MUCH OF THE AREA.

THE 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK CALLS FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THE 30 DAY OUTLOOK CALLS FOR BETTER
CHANCES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND EQUAL CHANCES OF
ABOVE...BELOW OR NORMAL PRECIPITATION. ADDITIONALLY...THE LONG RANGE
CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL INDICATES CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH NO LONG PERIODS OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE NEXT 30 DAYS. IF THIS VERIFIES...A PROLONGED BUT SLOW MELT
WOULD LIKELY OCCUR.

VISIT OUR WEB SITE WEATHER.GOV/MQT FOR MORE WEATHER AND WATER
INFORMATION.

$$

TITUS











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