Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
349 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

...THE SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR 2015 IS ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE
SHORT-TERM AND AVERAGE FOR THE REST OF THE SPRING...

FOR THE SPRING OF 2015...THERE IS AN AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE RISK
FOR FLOODING ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE. RECENT PRECIPITATION HAS
NEARLY SATURATED THE SOIL MOISTURE...AND STREAM FLOWS REMAIN
ELEVATED. THIS HAS INCREASED THE OVER-ALL FLOOD RISK IN THE
SHORT-TERM TO ABOVE AVERAGE. FURTHERMORE...LINGERING SNOW AND ICE
FROM RECENT WINTER WEATHER EVENTS MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL RISES ON
AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS SHOULD A RAPID MELT OCCUR.

...EXISTING CONDITIONS...

SOIL MOISTURE REMAINS NEARLY SATURATED DUE TO THE RECENT RAINFALL
ACROSS THE AREA. ONCE SPRING GREEN UP OCCURS...VEGETATION WILL BEGIN
TO USE THIS MOISTURE...AND MORE RAINFALL WILL BE NEEDED BEFORE SOIL
SATURATION OCCURS. THEREFORE...ONCE PLANTS AND TREES ARE NO LONGER
DORMANT OUR FLOOD RISK BECOMES AVERAGE.

WINTER TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH FEBRUARY
RECORDING AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THIS UNUSUAL COLD SPELL LED TO A FEW FROZEN GROUND ISSUES...BUT A
RECENT MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES AND A RISING SUN ANGLE HAS
ALLEVIATED CONCERNS.

PRECIPITATION FOR THE WINTER WAS BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS...BUT A
RECENT SHIFT TO A WET PATTERN HAS MADE UP THE DIFFERENCES AND MOST
LOCATIONS ARE NEAR NORMAL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE MID-STATE.

...METEOROLOGICAL OUTLOOK...

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER FORECASTS INDICATE THERE IS A SLIGHTLY
HIGHER PROBABILITY OF WETTER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS...WITH EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE...BELOW...OR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
MID-STATE FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH.

FOR THE SPRING MONTHS OF MARCH-APRIL-MAY...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER FORECASTS INDICATE THERE ARE EQUAL CHANCES OF
ABOVE...BELOW...OR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

...2015 SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK...

THE OVERALL SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK IS ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE SHORT-TERM
DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL AND LINGERING ICE AND SNOW IN SOME LOCATIONS.
ONCE THE WINTER LIKE PATTERN BREAKS AND SPRING GREEN UP
OCCURS...EXPECT AN AVERAGE RISK OF FLOODING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
SPRING.

$$

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