Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Portland, OR

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WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
240 PM PDT WEDNESDAY JANUARY 13 2016

...OREGON WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK AS OF JANUARY 13 2016...

THE OREGON WATER SUPPLY FOR THE SPRING AND SUMMER OF 2016 IS
FORECAST TO BE NEAR-NORMAL FOR OREGON. NOTE THAT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
IN THE FORECASTS ARE POSSIBLE THE NEXT FEW MONTHS SINCE SIGNIFICANT
SNOW ACCUMULATION AND RAINFALL TYPICALLY OCCURS THROUGH THE SPRING.

APRIL-SEPTEMBER RUNOFF VOLUME FORECASTS FOR OREGON RANGE FROM ABOUT
75 TO 110 PERCENT OF AVERAGE. THE LOWEST VALUES ARE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE...WHILE THE HIGHEST VALUES ARE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF...WHERE DROUGHT IMPACTS THE LAST TWO YEARS HAVE BEEN
MOST PRONOUNCED. RUNOFF VOLUME FORECASTS ARE BASED ON SEASONAL
SNOWPACK CONDITIONS...OBSERVED PRECIPITATION...AND OBSERVED
STREAMFLOW.

OREGON SNOWPACK AS OF EARLY JANUARY 2016 IS MUCH IMPROVED OVER
CONDITIONS SEEN IN JANUARY THE PREVIOUS TWO WINTERS. BASIN SNOWPACK
AROUND THE STATE RANGES FROM 100 TO 150 PERCENT OF AVERAGE...WITH
THE HIGHEST VALUES IN SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OREGON.

REFER TO THE SECTIONS BELOW AND THE LINKS PROVIDED FOR DETAILS
REGARDING SNOWPACK...PRECIPITATION...RESERVOIR CONDITIONS AND WATER
SUPPLY FORECASTS FOR INDIVIDUAL BASINS.

NOAA`S CLIMATE OUTLOOKS INDICATES THAT ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
AND TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE REST OF JANUARY. A STRONG EL
NINO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WINTER...AND THEN
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY TREND TOWARD ENSO-NEUTRAL BY THE SUMMER.
WITH THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF EL NINO...ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE REST OF WINTER AND INTO THE SPRING AND
SUMMER. THE OUTLOOK FOR PRECIPITATION IS MORE UNCERTAIN...BUT WILL
LIKELY BE A LITTLE BELOW-NORMAL FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF OREGON AND
NEAR-NORMAL OR ABOVE-NORMAL FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OREGON. FOR
MORE INFORMATION ON SEASONAL OUTLOOKS AND EL NINO CONDITIONS...VISIT
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER WEB PAGE AT WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV.

PRECIPITATION THUS FAR THIS WINTER HAS ALLEVIATED DROUGHT CONDITIONS
FOR MUCH OF OREGON. NOTE THAT SEVERAL COUNTIES ACROSS OREGON HAVE
ONGOING DROUGHT ISSUES DUE TO DRY CONDITIONS THE PAST TWO YEARS. THE
PRIMARY DROUGHT IMPACT AT THIS POINT IS RESERVOIR STORAGE...AND HOW
THE REST OF WINTER AND SPRING PLAYS OUT WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON
RESERVOIR STORAGE TO MEET WATER SUPPLY NEEDS THIS SUMMER. FOR THE
LATEST DROUGHT INFORMATION...VISIT DROUGHT.GOV AND
WWW.OREGON.GOV/OWRD/PAGES/WR/DROUGHT.ASPX.

THIS PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED ON A MONTHLY BASIS THROUGH JUNE 2016 AND
INCLUDES WATER SUPPLY AND DROUGHT INFORMATION FOR OREGON. THE NEXT
UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED BY FEBRUARY 10TH.

============================================================
SNOWPACK ACROSS OREGON

AS OF EARLY JANUARY...SEASONAL SNOWPACK IS ABOVE-AVERAGE FOR
OREGON...RANGING FROM 100 TO 150 PERCENT OF AVERAGE. THE HIGHEST
VALUES ARE IN SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OREGON...WITH THE LOWEST
VALUES IN NORTHEAST OREGON. THE SITUATION IS GREATLY IMPROVED
COMPARED THIS SAME TIME LAST WINTER. HOWEVER...SNOW ACCUMULATION
TYPICALLY CONTINUES THROUGH MARCH...AND SNOWPACK CONDITIONS IN EARLY
APRIL WILL BE KEY TO SPRING AND SUMMER RUNOFF CONDITIONS.

REFER TO THE FOLLOWING LINKS FOR MORE SNOWPACK DETAILS.

NOAA`S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE - NORTHWEST RIVER FORECAST CENTER
WWW.NWRFC.NOAA.GOV/SNOW/

USDA - NATURAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE
WWW.NRCS.USDA.GOV/WPS/PORTAL/NRCS/MAIN/OR/SNOW/

============================================================
PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES ACROSS OREGON

2016 WATER YEAR PRECIPITATION THUS FAR IS ABOVE-AVERAGE FOR OREGON.
SEASONAL PRECIPITATION TOTALS...OCTOBER 1 THROUGH JANUARY 12...
RANGE FROM 95 TO 130 PERCENT.

SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR OREGON ARE NEAR-NORMAL SO FAR THIS WINTER.
OCTOBER TEMPERATURES WERE 3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE-AVERAGE. NOVEMBER
TEMPERATURES WERE 1 TO 5 DEGREES BELOW-AVERAGE. DECEMBER
TEMPERATURES WERE AVERAGE FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OREGON AND 1 TO 3
DEGREES ABOVE-AVERAGE FOR THE NORTHERN HALF.

VISIT THE FOLLOWING LINKS FOR MORE DETAILS ON PRECIPITATION AND
TEMPERATURES.

NOAA`S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE - NORTHWEST RIVER FORECAST CENTER
WWW.NWRFC.NOAA.GOV/WATER_SUPPLY/WY_SUMMARY/WY_SUMMARY.PHP

NOAA`S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE - CALIFORNIA NEVADA RFC
(KLAMATH BASIN ONLY) WWW.CNRFC.NOAA.GOV/WATER_RESOURCES_UPDATE.PHP

============================================================
RESERVOIRS

RESERVOIR STORAGE REMAINS WELL BELOW CAPACITY...GENERALLY 10 TO 30
PERCENT OF CAPACITY IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN OREGON. RESERVOIR STORAGE
DURING THE COMING SPRING AND SUMMER DEPENDS ON SNOW ACCUMULATION
THROUGH THE WINTER AND EARLY SPRING...ALONG WITH SPRING RAINFALL
THROUGHOUT THE STATE.

RESERVOIR DATA IS PROVIDED BY THE NATURAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION
SERVICE...THE BUREAU OF RECLAMATION...AHD THE US ARMY CORPS OF
ENGINEERS.

VISIT THE FOLLOWING LINKS FOR MORE RESERVOIR INFORMATION:
WWW.WCC.NRCS.USDA.GOV/BASIN.HTML
WWW.USBR.GOV/PN/HYDROMET/SELECT.HTML
WWW.NWD-WC.USACE.ARMY.MIL/NWP/TEACUP/WILLAMETTE/

============================================================
CURRENT AND FORECAST STREAMFLOW

OBSERVED STREAMFLOW FOR DECEMBER WAS WELL ABOVE-AVERAGE...WITH MANY
RIVERS SEEING MULTIPLE HIGH FLOW EVENTS DUE TO SEVERAL STRONG STORMS
AND PERIODS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION. MANY RIVERS IN WESTERN OREGON
HAD SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IN MID DECEMBER. SOIL MOISTURE THROUGHOUT
THE STATE HAS INCREASED DRAMATICALLY IN NOVEMBER AND DECEMBER.

VISIT WATERWATCH.USGS.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS ON OBSERVED STREAMFLOW.

FORECAST STREAMFLOW VOLUMES FOR THE SPRING AND SUMMER (GENERALLY
APRIL THROUGH SEPTEMBER) RANGE FROM 75 TO 110 PERCENT OF AVERAGE FOR
OREGON BASINS...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES IN SOUTHERN OREGON BASINS
AND THE LOWEST IN NORTHEAST OREGON BASINS.

THE FORECAST FOR THE COLUMBIA RIVER AT THE DALLES...WHICH IS A GOOD
INDEX OF CONDITIONS ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN...IS 93% OF AVERAGE
FOR THE APRIL-SEPTEMBER PERIOD.

VISIT THE FOLLOWING LINKS FOR MORE DETAILS ON BASIN-SCALE WATER
SUPPLY FORECASTS:

NOAA`S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE - NORTHWEST RIVER FORECAST CENTER
WWW.NWRFC.NOAA.GOV/WS/

USDA - NATURAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE
WWW.WCC.NRCS.USDA.GOV/WSF/

BRYANT
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