Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
110 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016

...SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...

...THE SHORT TERM CHANCE OF RIVER FLOODING IS BELOW NORMAL...
...THE CHANCE OF RIVER FLOODING FROM EARLY FEBRUARY THROUGH
THROUGH SPRING IS ABOVE NORMAL...

PRECIPITATION SUMMARY

OVER THE SHORT TERM...A POWERFUL WINTER STORM ON JAN 22ND WAS THE
MAJOR PRECIPITATION PRODUCER THIS MONTH...AND IS RESPONSIBLE FOR
ABOUT HALF OF THE PRECIPITATION TO DATE. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION
FELL AS COLD RAIN WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
MIXED IN...BUT A SWATH OF 4+ INCHES OF SNOW FELL ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER COUNTIES. LIQUID WATER AMOUNTS OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS RANGED
FROM ~1 INCH IN THE WEST (YADKIN/PEE DEE RIVER BASIN) TO UP TO 2
INCHES ELSEWHERE. THIS IS 75 TO 100 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR THE TWO
WEEK PERIOD....BUT MOST OF THE AREA IS BELOW 75 PERCENT OF NORMAL
FOR THE YEAR TO DATE DUE TO DRY CONDITIONS IN EARLY JANUARY.
HOWEVER...THIS WAS ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN ALREADY DAMP SOIL MOISTURES
(>60% OF SATURATION)AND SLIGHTLY ELEVATED STREAMFLOWS.

OVER THE LONGER TERM...RAINFALL FOR THE WATER YEAR (10/1/2015 TO
DATE) SHOWS A MARKED WETTER-SOUTHWEST TO DRIER-NORTHEAST
DISTRIBUTION. THE ENTIRE AREA HAS RECIEVED GREATER THAN NORMAL
PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER...WITH THE YADKIN/PEE DEE RIVER BASIN
IN THE SOUTHWEST HAVING RECEIVED 150 TO 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL...
WHILE THE TAR RIVER BASIN IN THE NORTHEAST HAS RECEIVED 125
TO 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL.

THE FOLLOWING TABLES SUMMARIZE PRECIPITATION AND MONTHLY DEFICITS.

               PRECIPITATION (INCHES)/DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL
               WATER YEAR (BEGINNING 1 OCTOBER 2015)TO DATE

    MONTH           RDU            GSO        FAYETTEVILLE
---------------------------------------------------------------------

  OCTOBER        5.06/ 1.81     4.24/ 1.11     6.66/ 3.45
  NOVEMBER       7.14/ 4.02     6.79/ 3.68     6.38/ 3.61
  DECEMBER       6.07/ 3.00     6.65/ 3.67     6.51/ 3.86
  JAN TO DATE    1.73/-1.21     1.88/-0.70     1.63/-1.00

TOTALS WATER
YEAR TO DATE    20.00/ 7.62    19.56/ 7.66    21.18/ 9.92
   % OF NORMAL      162            164            188


                  BEGIN     ACTUAL   NORMAL  DEPARTURE  PERCENT
                  DATE       PCPN     PCPN   FROM NORM  OF NORM

RALEIGH-DURHAM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (RDU)

 LAST   7 DAYS   01/19/2016   0.96    0.79      0.17      122%
 LAST  14 DAYS   01/12/2016   1.46    1.61     -0.15       91%
 LAST  30 DAYS   12/27/2015   4.24    3.32      0.92      128%
 LAST  90 DAYS   10/28/2015  15.45    9.42      6.03      164%
 LAST 180 DAYS   07/30/2015  29.63   21.22      8.41      140%
 LAST 365 DAYS   01/26/2015  55.75   43.34     12.41      129%

PIEDMONT TRIAD INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (GSO)

 LAST   7 DAYS   01/19/2016   0.88    0.68      0.20      129%
 LAST  14 DAYS   01/12/2016   1.49    1.40      0.09      106%
 LAST  30 DAYS   12/27/2015   3.84    2.94      0.90      131%
 LAST  90 DAYS   10/28/2015  16.43    9.00      7.43      183%
 LAST 180 DAYS   07/30/2015  32.62   20.10     12.52      162%
 LAST 365 DAYS   01/26/2015  48.33   42.20      6.13      115%

FAYETTEVILLE AIRPORT (FAY)

 LAST   7 DAYS   01/19/2016   0.74    0.77     -0.03       96%
 LAST  14 DAYS   01/12/2016   1.37    1.43     -0.06       96%
 LAST  30 DAYS   12/27/2015   3.09    2.83      0.26      109%
 LAST  90 DAYS   10/28/2015  15.02    8.19      6.83      183%
 LAST 180 DAYS   07/30/2015  27.54   21.39      6.15      129%
 LAST 365 DAYS   01/26/2015  50.96   44.46      6.50      115%

STREAMFLOW AND LAKE LEVELS

STREAMFLOWS ACROSS CENTRAL NC ARE WELL WITHIN THEIR NORMAL RANGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...HAVING EDGED DOWNWARD JUST A BIT OVER THE PAST TWO
WEEKS. FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS...SEE WWW.WATERWATCH.USGS.GOV.

THE LARGER WATER SUPPLY RESERVOIRS LOCATED IN CENTRAL NC ARE FALLS
LAKE AND LAKE JORDAN...BOTH OPERATED BY THE U.S. ARMY CORPS OF
ENGINEERS. FALLS LAKE HAS BEEN LOWERED TO ITS TARGET ELEVATION OF
251.5 FEET AFTER HAVING RISEN TO 261 FEET ON JANUARY 1ST. LAKE
JORDAN IS AT AN ELEVATION OF 218 FEET (2 FEET ABOVE THE TARGET
ELEVATION) IS BEING LOWERED SLOWLY AFTER HAVING REACHED 233.1 FEET
ON JAN 2ND. SEE WWW.EPEC.SAW.USACE.ARMY.MIL FOR MORE SPECIFIC
DETAILS.

SHORT TERM FORECAST

AS NOTED ABOVE...STREAMS AND RIVERS ARE ON A SLOWLY FALLING TREND
AND THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A SYSTEM LOOMING IN THE NEAR TERM
(JAN 26 THROUGH FEB 4) THAT WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ENOUGH
PRECIPITATION TO CAUSE FLOODING. AS SUCH...THE SHORT RANGE
CHANCE FOR RIVER FLOODING IS BELOW NORMAL HEADING INTO EARLY
FEBRUARY.

LONG TERM PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK

CLIMATOLOGICALLY...THE FREQUENCY OF RIVER FLOODING INCREASES FROM
MID WINTER THROUGH SPRING...PEAKING IN APRIL. THE ONGOING WARM PHASE
OF THE EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) CYCLE WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WINTER AND INTO SPRING...WITH THE CORRESPONDING EFFECT
OF INCREASING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. WITH RELATIVELY WET
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS IN PLACE...THE CHANCE OF RIVER FLOODING FROM
EARLY FEBRUARY INTO THE SPRING IS ABOVE NORMAL.

ADDITIONAL DETAILS AND DISCUSSION MAY BE FOUND AT THE CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER WEBSITE: HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

IN SUMMARY...CURRENT HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS ARE WETTER THAN NORMAL
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THERE IS NO SYSTEM EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY FEBRUARY THAT MIGHT BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING RIVER FLOODING
AND THE CHANCE OF RIVER FLOODING IS BELOW NORMAL. IN THE LONGER
RANGE...HOWEVER...THE CHANCE OF RIVER FLOODING WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
DUE TO THE THREAT OF ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL RESULTING FROM THE
ONGOING WARM PHASE OF THE ENSO CYCLE.

THE NEXT SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON FEBRUARY 4TH.

MLM



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