Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4
654
FGUS65 KSTR 182314
ESGCO

COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECASTCENTER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UTAH

April 18, 2017

Seasonal outlook for maximum flows: YAMPA - DEERLODGE PARK

Comments:
This outlook is based on flows from ESP with model states as
of April 18. The first half of April has been dry with
slightly above normal temperatures. There has been significant
snowmelt in the basin and the current snow water equivalent is
at 71% of median. Many of the SNOTEL locations below 9000ft
have had significant melt or are already melted out. The remaining
snow exists only at the highest elevations.

As a result of the snowmelt, streamflows have continued to
increase across the basin. The current peak to date at the
Yampa River- Deerlodge is 5,090 cfs on 4/17.

Current weather models are forecasting an unsettled weather
pattern with chances for precipitation for rest of the week.
A stronger and colder storm with a better chance for precipitation
is forecast over the basin for Thursday and Friday.
As a result of continued snowmelt and a chances for precipitation,
the 10 day streamflow forecasts are indicating flows may reach
 ~7000-7500 cfs before decreasing back to current levels.

# ESP Forecast Information
#
# Analysis Period: 2017-04-18 - 2017-07-31 (MST)
# Forecast Parameters: River Discharge
# Forecast Interval: 2017-04-18 - 2017-07-31 (MST)
# Forecast Point: YAMPA - DEERLODGE PARK

Daily Peak -- Seasonal Maximum
#
# YAMPA - DEERLODGE PARK
#   Exceedance Prob.     0.90    0.75    0.50    0.25    0.10  Units
# ------------------------------------------------------------------
#                        7211    8275    9179   11572   13465  CFSD


Number of Days to Peak from: 2017-04-18
#
# YAMPA - DEERLODGE PARK
#   Exceedance Prob.     0.90    0.75    0.50    0.25    0.10  Units
# ------------------------------------------------------------------
#                           4      20      35      43      53  DAYS


Number of Days Above: 10000 cfs
#
# YAMPA - DEERLODGE PARK
#   Exceedance Prob.     0.90    0.75    0.50    0.25    0.10  Units
# ------------------------------------------------------------------
#                           0       0       0       4      10  DAYS


Number of Days Above: 14000 cfs
#
# YAMPA - DEERLODGE PARK
#   Exceedance Prob.     0.90    0.75    0.50    0.25    0.10  Units
# ------------------------------------------------------------------
#                           0       0       0       0       0  DAYS


Number of Days Above: 16000 cfs
#
# YAMPA - DEERLODGE PARK
#   Exceedance Prob.     0.90    0.75    0.50    0.25    0.10  Units
# ------------------------------------------------------------------
#                           0       0       0       0       0  DAYS


1-week Seasonal Peak Flow Max Highlight:
#   Exceedance Prob.                   0.90    0.75    0.50    0.25    0.10  Units
# --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
# Interval: 2017-05-17 - 2017-05-23    5106    6864    7671    8613   10280  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-05-18 - 2017-05-24    5284    6889    7967    9016   11438  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-05-19 - 2017-05-25    5990    6864    8098    9327   11248  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-05-20 - 2017-05-26    6320    6889    7920    9327   11321  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-05-21 - 2017-05-27    6320    6889    7920    9327   11321  CFSD


2-week Seasonal Peak Flow Max Highlight:
#   Exceedance Prob.                   0.90    0.75    0.50    0.25    0.10  Units
# --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
# Interval: 2017-05-15 - 2017-05-28    6320    7352    8411    9455   11438  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-05-16 - 2017-05-29    6320    7213    8411   10034   11438  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-05-17 - 2017-05-30    6579    7356    8413   10235   11542  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-05-18 - 2017-05-31    6579    7324    8413   10235   11697  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-05-19 - 2017-06-01    6534    7213    8325   10604   11668  CFSD


1-week Seasonal Peak Flow:
# ESP Forecast Information
#
# Analysis Period: 2017-04-18 - 2017-07-31 (MST)
# Forecast Parameters: River River Flow (Mean Daily) - (CFSD)
# Forecast Interval: 1 week
# Forecast Point: YAMPA - DEERLODGE PARK
#
# YAMPA - DEERLODGE PARK
#   Exceedance Prob.                   0.90    0.75    0.50    0.25    0.10  Units
# --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
# Interval: 2017-04-18 - 2017-04-24    6089    6110    6247    7816    9224  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-04-19 - 2017-04-25    6089    6110    6247    7816    9224  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-04-20 - 2017-04-26    6089    6110    6302    8222    9904  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-04-21 - 2017-04-27    6089    6110    6575    8394    9904  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-04-22 - 2017-04-28    5423    5565    6355    8600    9937  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-04-23 - 2017-04-29    4463    5395    6170    7045   10577  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-04-24 - 2017-04-30    4375    5025    5621    6575   10577  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-04-25 - 2017-05-01    4213    4739    5617    6554   10154  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-04-26 - 2017-05-02    4361    4739    5799    6554   10154  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-04-27 - 2017-05-03    4456    4754    5893    6575   10154  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-04-28 - 2017-05-04    4189    4754    5612    6600    9388  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-04-29 - 2017-05-05    4098    4532    5533    6970    9102  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-04-30 - 2017-05-06    3687    4530    5421    6653    8883  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-05-01 - 2017-05-07    3640    4383    5421    6600    8529  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-05-02 - 2017-05-08    3756    4383    5490    6771    8967  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-05-03 - 2017-05-09    3687    4551    5533    6600    8967  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-05-04 - 2017-05-10    4213    4936    5483    6778    8967  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-05-05 - 2017-05-11    4360    5068    5490    6826    8967  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-05-06 - 2017-05-12    4672    5214    5821    7891    8967  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-05-07 - 2017-05-13    4672    5233    6247    7911    9102  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-05-08 - 2017-05-14    4634    5206    6311    7911    8999  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-05-09 - 2017-05-15    4634    5562    6357    8064    8999  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-05-10 - 2017-05-16    4672    5562    6810    8122    8999  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-05-11 - 2017-05-17    4278    5689    7167    8085    8999  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-05-12 - 2017-05-18    4449    5689    7442    8219    8999  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-05-13 - 2017-05-19    4726    5918    7442    8411    9070  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-05-14 - 2017-05-20    5326    6079    7442    8411    9907  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-05-15 - 2017-05-21    5390    6639    7578    8411   10136  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-05-16 - 2017-05-22    4729    6885    7623    8411   10136  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-05-17 - 2017-05-23    5106    6864    7671    8613   10280  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-05-18 - 2017-05-24    5284    6889    7967    9016   11438  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-05-19 - 2017-05-25    5990    6864    8098    9327   11248  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-05-20 - 2017-05-26    6320    6889    7920    9327   11321  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-05-21 - 2017-05-27    6320    6889    7920    9327   11321  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-05-22 - 2017-05-28    6244    6889    7920    9305   11254  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-05-23 - 2017-05-29    6180    6439    7920   10014   11254  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-05-24 - 2017-05-30    5925    6373    7920   10014   11390  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-05-25 - 2017-05-31    5379    6014    7799   10231   11668  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-05-26 - 2017-06-01    5168    5918    7787   10235   11576  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-05-27 - 2017-06-02    5124    5914    7799   10099   11230  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-05-28 - 2017-06-03    5121    5914    7799    9828   11232  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-05-29 - 2017-06-04    5121    5914    7623    9828   11429  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-05-30 - 2017-06-05    5086    5712    7387   10099   11429  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-05-31 - 2017-06-06    4811    5850    7381   10099   11386  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-06-01 - 2017-06-07    4787    5277    7141   10099   11312  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-06-02 - 2017-06-08    4535    5204    7129   10099   11028  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-06-03 - 2017-06-09    4455    5284    7129    9936   11198  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-06-04 - 2017-06-10    4235    5125    7028    9936   11390  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-06-05 - 2017-06-11    4187    5054    7017    9258   11515  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-06-06 - 2017-06-12    4322    4866    6613    9133   11515  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-06-07 - 2017-06-13    4228    4686    6457    8759   11515  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-06-08 - 2017-06-14    4050    4504    6275    8669   11515  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-06-09 - 2017-06-15    3991    4448    6058    8673   11515  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-06-10 - 2017-06-16    3823    4373    5690    8275   10538  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-06-11 - 2017-06-17    3718    4329    5690    8235   10013  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-06-12 - 2017-06-18    3687    4238    5247    7691    9455  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-06-13 - 2017-06-19    3632    3919    5247    7181    9106  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-06-14 - 2017-06-20    3262    3639    5110    6918    9098  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-06-15 - 2017-06-21    3039    3369    4835    6918    9140  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-06-16 - 2017-06-22    2843    3067    4541    6740    8103  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-06-17 - 2017-06-23    2680    2923    4284    6365    7955  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-06-18 - 2017-06-24    2521    2870    4135    6117    7955  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-06-19 - 2017-06-25    2286    2722    3964    5891    7751  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-06-20 - 2017-06-26    2156    2660    3891    5251    7356  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-06-21 - 2017-06-27    2094    2533    3663    4798    7132  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-06-22 - 2017-06-28    1986    2362    3419    4512    7132  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-06-23 - 2017-06-29    1825    2190    3258    4488    6912  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-06-24 - 2017-06-30    1670    2125    3068    4373    6045  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-06-25 - 2017-07-01    1554    2026    2870    4029    5643  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-06-26 - 2017-07-02    1462    1879    2535    4029    5180  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-06-27 - 2017-07-03    1324    1741    2535    3655    4722  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-06-28 - 2017-07-04    1240    1593    2501    3471    4539  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-06-29 - 2017-07-05    1137    1442    2166    3390    4249  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-06-30 - 2017-07-06    1040    1367    2058    3390    3904  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-07-01 - 2017-07-07     953    1367    1951    3312    3645  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-07-02 - 2017-07-08     888    1273    1796    2696    3570  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-07-03 - 2017-07-09     835    1202    1746    2588    3492  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-07-04 - 2017-07-10     733    1039    1529    2504    3187  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-07-05 - 2017-07-11     679     951    1521    2206    3161  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-07-06 - 2017-07-12     669     890    1456    2167    3064  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-07-07 - 2017-07-13     648     815    1320    1970    2930  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-07-08 - 2017-07-14     648     762    1201    1761    2806  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-07-09 - 2017-07-15     631     721    1139    1616    2681  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-07-10 - 2017-07-16     603     692    1173    1581    2543  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-07-11 - 2017-07-17     579     667    1071    1581    2407  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-07-12 - 2017-07-18     561     667     998    1581    2082  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-07-13 - 2017-07-19     544     667     932    1440    1905  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-07-14 - 2017-07-20     531     656     881    1317    1806  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-07-15 - 2017-07-21     518     608     834    1239    1633  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-07-16 - 2017-07-22     505     608     794    1186    1518  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-07-17 - 2017-07-23     489     550     771    1034    1412  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-07-18 - 2017-07-24     476     532     735     929    1280  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-07-19 - 2017-07-25     459     517     699     880    1232  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-07-20 - 2017-07-26     444     505     667     839    1185  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-07-21 - 2017-07-27     432     505     641     839    1162  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-07-22 - 2017-07-28     420     484     610     800    1162  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-07-23 - 2017-07-29     414     472     592     754    1142  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-07-24 - 2017-07-30     410     447     573     709    1068  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-07-25 - 2017-07-31     402     424     550     679     914  CFSD


2-week Seasonal Peak Flow:
# ESP Forecast Information
#
# Analysis Period: 2017-04-18 - 2017-07-31 (MST)
# Forecast Parameters: River River Flow (Mean Daily) - (CFSD)
# Forecast Interval: 2 week
# Forecast Point: YAMPA - DEERLODGE PARK
#
# YAMPA - DEERLODGE PARK
#   Exceedance Prob.                   0.90    0.75    0.50    0.25    0.10  Units
# --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
# Interval: 2017-04-18 - 2017-05-01    6098    6142    6575    8600   10949  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-04-19 - 2017-05-02    6098    6142    6575    8600   10949  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-04-20 - 2017-05-03    6098    6142    6575    8600   10949  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-04-21 - 2017-05-04    6098    6142    6600    8600   10949  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-04-22 - 2017-05-05    5516    5865    6600    8680   11322  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-04-23 - 2017-05-06    4711    5559    6575    7816   12115  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-04-24 - 2017-05-07    4711    5456    6178    7586   11984  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-04-25 - 2017-05-08    4638    5490    6170    8096   11251  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-04-26 - 2017-05-09    5053    5490    6170    8389   11251  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-04-27 - 2017-05-10    5076    5464    6247    8466   11251  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-04-28 - 2017-05-11    4979    5464    6070    8466    9927  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-04-29 - 2017-05-12    4953    5464    6247    8354    9418  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-04-30 - 2017-05-13    4757    5464    6267    8064    9324  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-05-01 - 2017-05-14    4757    5464    6411    7918    9102  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-05-02 - 2017-05-15    4672    5582    6434    8064    9102  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-05-03 - 2017-05-16    4939    5821    7010    8411    9400  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-05-04 - 2017-05-17    4939    5918    7767    8411    9418  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-05-05 - 2017-05-18    4939    5918    7811    8466    9418  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-05-06 - 2017-05-19    5184    6054    7891    8610    9418  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-05-07 - 2017-05-20    5443    6297    7891    8771   10179  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-05-08 - 2017-05-21    5648    6639    7891    8771   10136  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-05-09 - 2017-05-22    5826    7167    7891    8610   10136  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-05-10 - 2017-05-23    5917    7167    8070    8771   10280  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-05-11 - 2017-05-24    6111    7356    8098    9016   11438  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-05-12 - 2017-05-25    6281    7356    8207    9327   11438  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-05-13 - 2017-05-26    6320    7352    8207    9327   11438  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-05-14 - 2017-05-27    6320    7356    8384    9327   11438  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-05-15 - 2017-05-28    6320    7352    8411    9455   11438  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-05-16 - 2017-05-29    6320    7213    8411   10034   11438  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-05-17 - 2017-05-30    6579    7356    8413   10235   11542  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-05-18 - 2017-05-31    6579    7324    8413   10235   11697  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-05-19 - 2017-06-01    6534    7213    8325   10604   11668  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-05-20 - 2017-06-02    6513    7180    8325   10733   11668  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-05-21 - 2017-06-03    6462    7059    8259   10733   11668  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-05-22 - 2017-06-04    6322    6993    8259   10235   11668  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-05-23 - 2017-06-05    6244    6779    8259   10235   11668  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-05-24 - 2017-06-06    5925    6779    8259   10235   11668  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-05-25 - 2017-06-07    5502    6551    7920   10235   12210  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-05-26 - 2017-06-08    5223    6779    7799   10235   11747  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-05-27 - 2017-06-09    5252    6779    7799   10130   11668  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-05-28 - 2017-06-10    5196    6779    7799   10099   11852  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-05-29 - 2017-06-11    5196    6779    7655   10099   11852  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-05-30 - 2017-06-12    5155    6434    7689   10099   11852  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-05-31 - 2017-06-13    4823    5927    7384   10099   11852  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-06-01 - 2017-06-14    4808    5600    7381   10099   11666  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-06-02 - 2017-06-15    4535    5600    7263   10099   11515  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-06-03 - 2017-06-16    4455    5484    7263    9936   11515  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-06-04 - 2017-06-17    4322    5125    7129    9936   11515  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-06-05 - 2017-06-18    4322    5054    7129    9258   11515  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-06-06 - 2017-06-19    4322    5125    6613    9152   11515  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-06-07 - 2017-06-20    4228    5125    6613    9133   11515  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-06-08 - 2017-06-21    4158    4711    6430    9152   11515  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-06-09 - 2017-06-22    3991    4466    6176    8965   11515  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-06-10 - 2017-06-23    3823    4447    5691    8582   10538  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-06-11 - 2017-06-24    3718    4374    5691    8275   10232  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-06-12 - 2017-06-25    3687    4329    5691    8033    9675  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-06-13 - 2017-06-26    3632    3919    5247    7462    9298  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-06-14 - 2017-06-27    3262    3639    5110    6934    9140  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-06-15 - 2017-06-28    3039    3369    4835    6934    9140  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-06-16 - 2017-06-29    2843    3067    4541    6740    8103  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-06-17 - 2017-06-30    2680    2923    4284    6365    7955  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-06-18 - 2017-07-01    2521    2870    4135    6117    7955  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-06-19 - 2017-07-02    2286    2722    3964    5891    7751  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-06-20 - 2017-07-03    2156    2660    3891    5251    7356  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-06-21 - 2017-07-04    2094    2533    3663    4798    7132  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-06-22 - 2017-07-05    1986    2362    3419    4512    7132  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-06-23 - 2017-07-06    1825    2190    3258    4488    6912  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-06-24 - 2017-07-07    1670    2125    3068    4373    6045  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-06-25 - 2017-07-08    1554    2026    2870    4029    5643  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-06-26 - 2017-07-09    1462    1879    2535    4029    5180  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-06-27 - 2017-07-10    1324    1741    2535    3655    4722  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-06-28 - 2017-07-11    1240    1593    2501    3471    4539  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-06-29 - 2017-07-12    1137    1442    2166    3390    4249  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-06-30 - 2017-07-13    1040    1367    2058    3390    3904  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-07-01 - 2017-07-14     953    1367    1951    3312    3645  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-07-02 - 2017-07-15     888    1273    1796    2696    3570  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-07-03 - 2017-07-16     835    1202    1746    2588    3492  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-07-04 - 2017-07-17     733    1039    1529    2504    3187  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-07-05 - 2017-07-18     680     951    1521    2206    3161  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-07-06 - 2017-07-19     680     890    1456    2167    3064  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-07-07 - 2017-07-20     660     815    1368    1970    2930  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-07-08 - 2017-07-21     648     762    1368    1761    2806  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-07-09 - 2017-07-22     631     721    1298    1616    2681  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-07-10 - 2017-07-23     603     692    1173    1581    2543  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-07-11 - 2017-07-24     579     667    1071    1581    2407  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-07-12 - 2017-07-25     561     667     998    1581    2082  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-07-13 - 2017-07-26     544     667     932    1440    1905  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-07-14 - 2017-07-27     531     667     881    1317    1806  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-07-15 - 2017-07-28     518     636     839    1239    1633  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-07-16 - 2017-07-29     505     616     817    1186    1518  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-07-17 - 2017-07-30     489     595     771    1034    1412  CFSD
# Interval: 2017-07-18 - 2017-07-31     476     563     735     929    1280  CFSD


Please feel free to contact the forecaster at ashley.nielson@noaa.gov

Issued by:
A.Nielson

NNNN
$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.