Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3
000
FGUS63 KKRF 232003
ESGMIL

LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO
244 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.

:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD:  10/27/2014 - 1/25/2015 Z

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:ST MARY R AT INTNL BOUNDARY MT
SMBM8               7.5   8.5   9.5    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:MILK R AT EASTERN CROSSING MT
ERNM8               9.5  11.0  13.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:BIG SANDY CR AT HAVRE MT 7WSW
BSMM8               8.5  10.0  12.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:MILK R AT HAVRE MT 2WNW
HVRM8              10.0  15.0  18.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:LODGE CR AT INTNL BOUNDRY MT
LGEM8               7.0   9.5  12.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:BATTLE CR AT CHINOOK MT
BCMM8              10.0  12.0  14.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:CLEAR CR AT CHINOOK MT
CCMM8               5.5   6.5   8.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:MILK R AT HARLEM MT 4SSE
HRLM8              21.0  23.0  25.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:MILK R AT DODSON MT 2W
DMRM8              23.0  28.0  31.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:MILK R AT MALTA MT
MALM8              16.0  19.0  22.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:MILK R AT SACO MT 7NE
SACM8              20.0  22.0  24.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:BEAVER CR AT HINSDALE MT 4NW
BCHM8              14.0  16.0  17.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:MILK R AT TAMPICO MT
TMPM8              23.0  24.0  27.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:MILK R AT GLASGOW MT 3SE
GLWM8              25.0  29.0  31.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:MILK R AT NASHUA MT 1SW
NSHM8              20.0  28.0  30.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:POPLAR R AT POPLAR MT 4N
PLRM8              15.5  16.5  17.5    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME
PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B KRF 1027 Z DH12 /DC1410231444/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF

:                CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
:                     VALID PERIOD = 10/27/2014 - 1/25/2015

:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---

:ST MARY R
SMBM8       4.8/    4.8/    4.8/    4.8/    4.8/    4.9/    5.1

:MILK R
ERNM8       3.1/    3.1/    3.1/    3.2/    3.3/    3.4/    3.6

:BIG SANDY CR
BSMM8       2.5/    2.6/    2.6/    2.6/    2.6/    2.6/    2.6

:MILK R
HVRM8       1.2/    1.2/    1.3/    1.3/    1.5/    1.6/    2.2

:LODGE CR
LGEM8       2.6/    2.6/    2.6/    2.6/    2.6/    2.6/    2.6

:BATTLE CR
BCMM8       1.5/    1.6/    1.6/    1.6/    1.7/    1.7/    1.7

:CLEAR CR
CCMM8       1.9/    1.9/    1.9/    1.9/    2.0/    2.0/    2.1

:MILK R
HRLM8       3.6/    3.6/    3.7/    3.8/    3.9/    4.1/    5.9
DMRM8       5.7/    5.8/    5.8/    5.9/    6.3/    7.5/   10.9
MALM8       2.4/    2.4/    2.5/    2.5/    2.7/    3.3/    4.8
SACM8       3.8/    3.9/    3.9/    3.9/    4.1/    4.7/    5.2

:BEAVER CR
BCHM8       3.4/    3.5/    3.5/    3.5/    3.6/    4.8/    7.3

:MILK R
TMPM8       3.9/    3.9/    4.0/    4.1/    4.2/    5.6/    7.2
GLWM8       5.9/    6.0/    6.2/    6.4/    6.6/    8.3/   10.4
NSHM8       2.0/    2.1/    2.1/    2.1/    2.2/    3.2/    4.4

:POPLAR R
PLRM8       2.2/    2.2/    2.2/    2.3/    2.3/    2.3/    2.4
.END

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B KRF 1027 Z DH12 /DC1410231444/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF

:            CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
:                     VALID PERIOD = 10/27/2014 - 1/25/2015

:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---

:ST MARY R
SMBM8       3.7/    3.6/    3.5/    3.5/    3.5/    3.5/    3.5

:MILK R
ERNM8       3.1/    3.0/    2.8/    2.8/    2.7/    2.7/    2.7

:BIG SANDY CR
BSMM8       2.5/    2.5/    2.5/    2.5/    2.5/    2.5/    2.5

:MILK R
HVRM8       1.0/    1.0/    0.9/    0.8/    0.8/    0.7/    0.6

:LODGE CR
LGEM8       1.9/    1.9/    1.9/    1.9/    1.9/    1.9/    1.9

:BATTLE CR
BCMM8       1.1/    1.1/    1.1/    1.1/    1.1/    1.1/    1.1

:CLEAR CR
CCMM8       1.7/    1.6/    1.5/    1.5/    1.5/    1.5/    1.5

:MILK R
HRLM8       3.4/    3.2/    3.1/    2.9/    2.8/    2.6/    2.5
DMRM8       4.9/    4.8/    4.7/    4.7/    4.6/    4.5/    4.5
MALM8       2.0/    1.9/    1.9/    1.8/    1.8/    1.8/    1.8
SACM8       3.6/    3.5/    3.5/    3.5/    3.4/    3.4/    3.4

:BEAVER CR
BCHM8       3.3/    3.3/    3.3/    3.2/    3.2/    3.2/    3.2

:MILK R
TMPM8       3.6/    3.5/    3.4/    3.4/    3.3/    3.3/    3.3
GLWM8       5.4/    5.3/    5.1/    5.0/    4.9/    4.7/    4.6
NSHM8       1.8/    1.8/    1.7/    1.6/    1.6/    1.5/    1.5

:POPLAR R
PLRM8       2.2/    2.2/    2.2/    2.2/    2.2/    2.2/    2.2

:Long-range probabilistic outlooks will be issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

.END

$$




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.