Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS Ohio RFC

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FGUS61 KTIR 310222
ESGTIR
WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OHIO RIVER FORECAST CENTER WILMINGTON OH
959 PM EDT Monday May 30 2016

THE FOLLOWING IS THE 30-DAY WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK FOR June

...WATER RESOURCES STREAMFLOW OUTLOOK...

Streamflows will average slightly above normal south of the
mainstem...normal north of the Ohio River and below normal in the
Allegheny watershed.
.....................................................................

...HYDROLOGIC FLOOD AND DROUGHT POTENTIAL...

Flood risk is low in the Ohio River Basin for June. The risk for
drought conditions exist in the Allegheny watershed where
precipitation has been below normal for several months.
.....................................................................

...HYDROLOGICAL AND METEOROLOGICAL REVIEW for May...

High streamflow conditions and minor flooding occurred early to mid May
along the Wabash River and parts of the White River basin. These
streamflows receded during the last half of May. Smithland inflows peaked
around 250k CFS in late May.

Meteorologically...rainfall was 50 to 75 percent of normal north of
the mainstem and near normal south of the Ohio River.

http://www.weather.gov/ohrfc/images/dynamic/latest30day.jpeg

...SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...

Soil moisture is much below normal in parts of the upper Ohio Valley
where there is concern for drought conditions. Elsewhere in the Ohio
River Basin...soils have near normal soil moisture for late Spring.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/soilmst/w.shtml

...STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS...

Monthly averaged streamflows in May were below normal in the
Allegheny watershed as well as the reach of the Cumberland River near
Nashville...normal flows north of the mainstem...and slightly above
for watersheds in Kentucky.

http://watermonitor.gov

.....................................................................

...ATMOSPHERIC TELECONNECTION AND OSCILLATION FORECASTS FOR June...

ARCTIC OSCILLATION
trending positive = RAINFALL slightly above normal

NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION
negative = RAINFALL below normal

PACIFIC/NORTH AMERICAN TELECONNECTION
trending positive= RAINFALL below normal

ENSO - EL NINO/LA NINA OSCILLATION
developing La Nina = RAINFALL above normal south of the
mainstem/below normal north of the Ohio River

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov

.....................................................................

...Summary...

MAY was a very TRANSITIONal month with respect to the driving forces of
the atmospheric circulation in the central equatorial PACIFIC Ocean.
SSTs rapidly cooled to the point of now defining a well established
La Nina.

The resulting affects on the atmospheric circulation across North
America will increase the risk for drought conditions in the upper
Ohio Valley. The trend of below normal rainfall north of the Ohio River
and slightly above normal precipitation possible south of the mainstem
will continue heading into Summer.

The risks for flooding (and above normal flows) will be low...especially
north of the mainstem and across watersheds in the upper Ohio Valley.
Slightly elevated flows are possible across watersheds south of the
Ohio River.
.......................................................................

VISIT OUR WATER RESOURCES WEBSITE AT http://www.weather.gov/ohrfc/WRO

IN ADDITION TO A 30-DAY STREAMFLOW OUTLOOK...YOU CAN ALSO OBTAIN A
60- AND 90-DAY OUTLOOK AT THE WEBSITE

$$
Wheeler



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