Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS Ohio RFC

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WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OHIO RIVER FORECAST CENTER WILMINGTON OH
131 PM EDT FRIDAY JULY 29 2016

THE FOLLOWING IS THE 30-DAY WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK FOR AUGUST

...WATER RESOURCES STREAMFLOW OUTLOOK...

STREAMFLOWS WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER...NEAR NORMAL NORTH OF THE MAINSTEM IN THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY...AND MUCH BELOW NORMAL IN THE ALLEGHENY AND LOWER
MONONGAHELA WATERSHEDS AS WELL AS THE LAKE ERIE DRAINAGE NEAR
CLEVELAND.
.....................................................................

...HYDROLOGIC FLOOD AND DROUGHT POTENTIAL...

EVEN THOUGH STREAMFLOWS ARE FORECAST TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL DURING
AUGUST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERSHEDS...THE FLOOD RISK WILL BE LOW IN
THE OHIO RIVER BASIN.

IN CONTRAST...THE DEVELOPING DROUGHT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST DRAINAGE...
SPECIFICALLY THE ALLEGHENY WATERSHED...IS EXPECTED TO WORSEN DURING
LATE SUMMER. THE DROUGHT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR EXPANDING INTO
DRAINAGES IN NORTHEAST OHIO.
.....................................................................

...JULY HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL REVIEW...

VERY DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTED IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE OHIO
VALLEY WHERE RAINFALL WAS AROUND 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL OR LESS.

ELSEWHERE...NO PATTERN TO THE PRECIPITATION EXISTED WITH POCKETS OF
BELOW NORMAL AND ABOVE NORMAL SCATTERED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
OHIO VALLEY...A PATTERN TYPICAL FOR SUMMERTIME MESOSCALE CONVECTION.

HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OHRFC/IMAGES/DYNAMIC/LATEST30DAY.JPEG

...SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...

THE EXTENT OF DRYNESS IN THE OHIO VALLEY HAS EXPANDED DURING JULY TO
INCLUDE WATERSHEDS IN THE STATE OF OHIO. EASTWARD IN THE NORTHERN
UPPER OHIO VALLEY...CONDITIONS ARE WORSE. EXCESSIVE DRYNESS HAS
DEVELOPED IN WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK STATE
WHERE DEVELOPING DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO WORSEN.

HTTP://WWW.CPC.NOAA.GOV/SOILMST/W.SHTML

...JULY STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS...

JULY AVERAGES SHOW BELOW NORMAL STREAMFLOWS ACROSS WATERSHEDS IN OHIO
AND MUCH BELOW NORMAL FLOWS ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY WATERSHED AND LOWER
MONONGAHELA BASIN. NORMAL STREAMFLOWS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS DRAINAGES
IN INDIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN ILLINOIS...AND ABOVE NORMAL STREAMFLOWS
OCCURRED SOUTH OF THE MAINSTEM.

HTTP://WATERMONITOR.GOV

.....................................................................

...ATMOSPHERIC TELECONNECTION AND OSCILLATION FORECASTS FOR AUGUST...

ARCTIC OSCILLATION WILL BE TRENDING NEGATIVE WHICH FAVORS BELOW NORMAL
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE MAINSTEM.

NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION WILL BE NEGATIVE WHICH FAVORS BELOW NORMAL
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE MAINSTEM.

PACIFIC/NORTH AMERICAN TELECONNECTION WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY NEGATIVE
DURING AUGUST WHICH FAVORS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE MAINSTEM.

ENSO - EL NINO/LA NINA OSCILLATION

LA NINA WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN IN THE CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC
OCEAN...WHICH FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL SOUTH OF THE MAINSTEM AND
BELOW NORMAL NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.

HTTP://WWW.CPC.NOAA.GOV

.....................................................................

...SUMMARY OF THE EXPECTED HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS AND ITS
IMPACTS ON STREAMFLOWS WITHIN THE OHIO RIVER BASIN...

COLLECTIVELY...ATMOSPHERIC TELECONNECTIONS AND OSCILLATIONS POINT TO
A CONTINUATION OF THE WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE LAST FEW MONTHS
PRODUCING WET CONDITIONS SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER AND DRY CONDITIONS
NORTH OF THE MAINSTEM...AND ESPECIALLY DRY IN THE ALLEGHENY WATERSHED
AS WELL AS THE LOWER MONONGAHELA BASIN.

THE AFFECTS OF THESE TELECONNECTIONS AND OSCILLATIONS ON THE
ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WILL WORSEN THE
DEVELOPING DROUGHT IN WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK
STATE. CONDITIONS ACROSS DRAINAGES IN NORTHEAST OHIO WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY FOR THE DROUGHT EXPANDING INTO THESE WATERSHEDS OF
THE BUCKEYE STATE.

EVEN THOUGH RAINFALL DURING AUGUST WILL BE PLENTIFUL SOUTH OF THE
MAINSTEM ...THE RISK FOR FLOODING WILL BE LOW ALTHOUGH STREAMFLOWS
WILL BE ELEVATED WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL.

NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...FLOWS WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL...BUT STREAMFLOWS WILL DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY EASTWARD INTO THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL VALUES IN THE ALLEGHENY AND
LOWER MONONGAHELA BASINS AS WELL AS LAKE ERIE DRAINAGE NEAR
CLEVELAND.

.......................................................................

VISIT OUR WATER RESOURCES WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OHRFC/WRO

IN ADDITION TO A 30-DAY STREAMFLOW OUTLOOK...YOU CAN ALSO OBTAIN A
60- AND 90-DAY OUTLOOK AT THE WEBSITE

$$
WHEELER



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