Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 251928
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Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
328 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017

...One more very warm day on Tuesday...

.DISCUSSION...Hot and dry conditions have led to a handful of sites
with RH values dropping near or below critical thresholds this
afternoon. Humidity is expected to gradually recover heading into
late afternoon/evening as temperatures begin to cool. The good news
is winds remain very light, generally less than 10 mph.

Very warm temperatures will stick around for one more day on
Tuesday, and a few locations could make a run for tying or breaking
record highs. Less concern for afternoon humidity levels, as highs
should generally run a few degrees cooler than today. A potent cold
front will bring a chance for scattered showers and perhaps a
thunderstorm late afternoon through Tuesday night, particularly
north of M-32. Rainfall amounts will be rather light, however. It
will turn sharply cooler with winds veering NW behind the front.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-260815-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
328 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent). Patchy fog after
                    2400.
Min Temperature.....56-61...except 63-68 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (0).
Mixing Height.......100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 3 to 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Patchy fog until
                    1200.
Max Temperature.....84-89...except around 80 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........42-47 percent...except 56-61 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent wetter...except 9 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming southwest around 5 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1580).
Mixing Height.......8100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 6 mph increasing to southwest
                    around 18 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers.
Min Temperature.....55-60.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........93-98 percent.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (200).
Mixing Height.......1300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 15 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.10 in.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (65-75 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers until 1200.
Max Temperature.....62-67...except around 60 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......23 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........58-63 percent...except 67-72 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......20 percent wetter...except 13 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (950).
Mixing Height.......4300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 21 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-260815-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
328 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms until 2400. Patchy
                    fog after 2400.
Min Temperature.....57-62...except 64-69 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (10).
Mixing Height.......100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 3 to 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Patchy fog until
                    1200.
Max Temperature.....84-89...except 74-79 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........42-47 percent...except 62-67 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1140).
Mixing Height.......7700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 3 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent).
Min Temperature.....56-61...except 63-68 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler.
Max Humidity........93-98 percent.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (270).
Mixing Height.......1700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 12 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent).
Max Temperature.....67-72...except 57-62 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......19 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........53-58 percent...except 67-72 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......10 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1030).
Mixing Height.......4500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest around 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-260815-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
328 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
Min Temperature.....56-61...except 64-69 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer...except 5 degrees cooler near
                    the coast.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent...except 85-90 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (0).
Mixing Height.......0 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 3 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Patchy fog until
                    1200.
Max Temperature.....84-89...except 69-74 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........41-46 percent...except 71-76 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......12 percent wetter...except 22 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming southwest around 5 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1510).
Mixing Height.......7600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 9 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent).
Min Temperature.....55-60.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........93-98 percent...except 82-87 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (200).
Mixing Height.......1300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 15 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.06 in.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (65-75 percent).
Max Temperature.....61-66.
   24 HR Trend......23 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........58-63 percent...except 67-72 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......19 percent wetter...except 7 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (840).
Mixing Height.......4300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest around 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in.


$$

MIZ031>033-260815-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
328 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent). Patchy fog after
                    2400.
Min Temperature.....56-61.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler.
Max Humidity........93-98 percent.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (0).
Mixing Height.......0 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 3 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Patchy fog until
                    1200.
Max Temperature.....84-89...except around 81 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........41-46 percent...except 56-61 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......16 percent wetter...except 8 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1580).
Mixing Height.......8400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 6 mph increasing to southwest
                    around 18 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent).
Min Temperature.....54-59.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Max Humidity........93-98 percent.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (180).
Mixing Height.......1200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 15 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent).
Max Temperature.....63-68.
   24 HR Trend......22 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........53-58 percent...except 63-68 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......17 percent wetter...except 9 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (750).
Mixing Height.......4300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest around 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-260815-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
328 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent). Patchy fog after
                    2400.
Min Temperature.....57-62.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (10).
Mixing Height.......200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 3 to 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Patchy fog until
                    1200.
Max Temperature.....85-90.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........39-44 percent.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming southwest around 5 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1290).
Mixing Height.......8900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 3 mph increasing to around 15
                    mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent).
Min Temperature.....57-62.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........93-98 percent.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (290).
Mixing Height.......1700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 15 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent).
Max Temperature.....66-71.
   24 HR Trend......20 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........54-59 percent.
   24 HR Trend......15 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (870).
Mixing Height.......4300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest around 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID
60S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
HIGHS AROUND 60. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS AROUND
60. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
60S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

MK



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