Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 201930
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
330 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

...TRENDING DRIER BEGINNING TOMORROW...

.DISCUSSION...
SPOTTY SPRINKLES WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS
FURTHER OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR HIGH
PRESSURE TO SET UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES...PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS
AND A SLOW WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-210815-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
330 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). PATCHY DRIZZLE.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....37-42.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 25 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (530).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....44-49.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........57-62 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......23 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN
                    THE MORNING.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (630).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 15 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....25-30...EXCEPT 34-39 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......12 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (30).
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....47-52.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........54-59 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (130).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 3 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-210815-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
330 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). PATCHY DRIZZLE.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....38-43.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 25 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (490).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 18 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....45-50.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........60-65 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......20 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25
                    MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (680).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 21 TO 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....30-35...EXCEPT 38-43 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........92-97 PERCENT...EXCEPT 80-85 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED...EXCEPT 8 PERCENT DRIER ALONG THE
                    COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (130).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....48-53.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........54-59 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (230).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-210815-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
330 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). PATCHY DRIZZLE
                    UNTIL 2400...THEN AREAS OF DRIZZLE.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....38-43.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT...EXCEPT 81-86 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 3 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 25 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (630).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....45-50.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........61-66 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......20 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 14 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30
                    MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (750).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 15 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....23-28...EXCEPT 38-43 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......13 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED...EXCEPT 10 PERCENT WETTER ALONG THE
                    COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH
                    IN THE EVENING.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 6 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....47-52.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........51-56 PERCENT...EXCEPT 63-68 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (100).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 3 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ031>033-210815-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
330 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). PATCHY DRIZZLE.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....38-43.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT...EXCEPT 81-86 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (590).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 21 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....46-51.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........62-67 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......17 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 12 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (730).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 15 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....23-28...EXCEPT AROUND 31 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......14 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 10 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 6 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....48-53.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........51-56 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (120).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 3 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-210815-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
330 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). PATCHY DRIZZLE.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....37-42.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (490).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 18 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....45-50.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........61-66 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......17 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (640).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 21 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....29-34.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........92-97 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (40).
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....49-54.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........51-56 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (190).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S. LIGHT WINDS.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID
50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

BERGER





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