Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FNUS53 KAPX 290632
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
232 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.DISCUSSION...WARM AND MUCH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT
TODAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THAT FEATURE...A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...GRADUALLY ENDING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ON SATURDAY. STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILDING
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT LATER SATURDAY AND THROUGH
MIDWEEK...DELIVERING A BOUT OF MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS. CONDITIONS LOOK QUITE GOOD FOR ANY
PLANNED BURNS...THOUGH WINDS MAY BE A BIT GUSTY FROM THE EAST TO
NORTHEAST BOTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SUNDAY. MUCH LIGHTER
WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-300000-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
232 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0800. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
                    1300.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-83...EXCEPT AROUND 70 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........51-56 PERCENT...EXCEPT 66-71 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......21 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 12 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1150).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.03-0.19 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 2400. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
                    RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....55-60...EXCEPT 53-58 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......13 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 7 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (70).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.29-0.70 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0800. RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL
                    1200...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1500.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....58-63...EXCEPT 47-52 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......22 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........51-56 PERCENT...EXCEPT 60-65 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (570).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.10-0.19 IN.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-300000-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
232 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0800. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 0800 UNTIL
                    1300...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....79-84...EXCEPT 63-68 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 3 DEGREES WARMER NEAR
                    THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........50-55 PERCENT...EXCEPT 64-69 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT UNCHANGED ALONG THE
                    COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1130).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.02-0.20 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 2400. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
                    RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....61-66.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (90).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.25-0.53 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0800. RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....62-67...EXCEPT 50-55 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......17 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........57-62 PERCENT...EXCEPT 77-82 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 14 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (460).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 9 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.13-0.29 IN.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-300000-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
232 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0800. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1000 UNTIL
                    1300...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-83...EXCEPT 58-63 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........53-58 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......23 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 14 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1300).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.10 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 2400. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
                    RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....51-56.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 11 DEGREES COOLER
                    NEAR THE COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT...EXCEPT 81-86 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 16 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (60).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHWEST AROUND 3 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.47-0.70 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0800. RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL
                    1200...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....55-60...EXCEPT AROUND 50 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......24 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........53-58 PERCENT...EXCEPT 65-70 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (530).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 15 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.08-0.16 IN.


$$

MIZ031>033-300000-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
232 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0800. ISOLATED SHOWERS AFTER 0800 UNTIL
                    1000...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS. SCATTERED
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1300.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-83...EXCEPT 67-72 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........53-58 PERCENT...EXCEPT 64-69 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......18 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 7 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1690).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.09 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 2400. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
                    RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....55-60...EXCEPT AROUND 51 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........92-97 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 12 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (50).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.33-0.61 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0800. RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL
                    1500...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....58-63...EXCEPT 48-53 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......22 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........55-60 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (470).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 12 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.14-0.20 IN.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-300000-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
232 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0800. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 0800 UNTIL
                    1000...THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. SCATTERED
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1300.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....79-84.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........52-57 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......23 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1580).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.03-0.16 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 2400. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
                    SHOWERS AFTER 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....62-67.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (90).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.26-0.58 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0800. RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....63-68.
   24 HR TREND......17 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........57-62 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (370).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.14-0.27 IN.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. PATCHY FROST. LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND
10 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. AREAS OF FROST. LOWS IN THE MID 30S.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
MID 70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

LAWRENCE



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