Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 201957
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
357 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

...PERIODS OF RAIN INTO MONDAY EVENING THEN TURNING COOLER...

.DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE STATE WILL
DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. THAT FRONT WILL
STALL OVER THE  AREA...UNTIL ANOTHER LOW CROSSES LOWER MICHIGAN
MONDAY AFTERNOON. OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN ON THE DAMP SIDE
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. WE WILL COOL OFF BUT DRY OUT AFTER
THAT...WITH A LENGTHY PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE MONDAY...WHILE TUESDAY WILL
SEE A BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WIND.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-210815-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
357 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). OCCASIONAL RAIN
                    SHOWERS. PERIODS OF DRIZZLE AFTER 2100 UNTIL
                    0300. AREAS OF FOG AFTER 0300.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....41-46.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 2 DEGREES COOLER NEAR
                    THE COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........87-92 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......30 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 8 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST
                    AROUND 3 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.01-0.22 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG UNTIL
                    0900. RAIN LIKELY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....59-64...EXCEPT 44-49 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........68-73 PERCENT...EXCEPT 83-88 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......38 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 17 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (410).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
                    AROUND 12 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.06-0.31 IN.

.MONDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    UNTIL 2400...THEN SCATTERED SPRINKLES AND
                    FLURRIES.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....35-40.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 2 DEGREES WARMER NEAR
                    THE COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........88-93 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (90).
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.02-0.11 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    FLURRIES UNTIL 1400. SCATTERED SPRINKLES.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....43-48.
   24 HR TREND......18 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 12 DEGREES COOLER
                    NEAR THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........53-58 PERCENT...EXCEPT 67-72 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......14 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1000).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-210815-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
357 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). OCCASIONAL RAIN
                    SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....40-45.
   24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT...EXCEPT 81-86 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 18 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 3 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.03-0.17 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). RAIN LIKELY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....65-70...EXCEPT 44-49 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........63-68 PERCENT...EXCEPT 83-88 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......48 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 58 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (820).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.10-0.32 IN.

.MONDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    UNTIL 2400...THEN SCATTERED SPRINKLES.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....37-42.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........89-94 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (170).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 15 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.04-0.25 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SPRINKLES. SCATTERED FLURRIES AFTER 0800 UNTIL
                    1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....46-51...EXCEPT 39-44 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......14 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........51-56 PERCENT...EXCEPT 67-72 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......16 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 22 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1180).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-210815-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
357 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). OCCASIONAL RAIN
                    SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....43-48.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........86-91 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......26 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.03-0.29 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). RAIN LIKELY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-65...EXCEPT 40-45 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER...EXCEPT 8 DEGREES COOLER NEAR
                    THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........61-66 PERCENT...EXCEPT 83-88 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......33 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (540).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.08-0.26 IN.

.MONDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    UNTIL 2400...THEN SCATTERED SPRINKLES AND
                    FLURRIES.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....34-39.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........88-93 PERCENT...EXCEPT 78-83 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 11 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (60).
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 9 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.09 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    FLURRIES UNTIL 1400. SCATTERED SPRINKLES.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....41-46.
   24 HR TREND......20 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 12 DEGREES COOLER
                    NEAR THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........52-57 PERCENT...EXCEPT 70-75 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1100).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ031>033-210815-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
357 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). OCCASIONAL RAIN
                    SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....44-49.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........83-88 PERCENT...EXCEPT 88-93 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......21 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 31 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.10-0.25 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN LIKELY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....62-67...EXCEPT 50-55 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........58-63 PERCENT...EXCEPT 74-79 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......33 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (590).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.12-0.21 IN.

.MONDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    UNTIL 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....35-40.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........89-94 PERCENT...EXCEPT 77-82 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 10 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (110).
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 12 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.10 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....43-48.
   24 HR TREND......20 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 12 DEGREES COOLER
                    NEAR THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........48-53 PERCENT...EXCEPT 60-65 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 16 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1160).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 27 TO 30 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-210815-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
357 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). OCCASIONAL RAIN
                    SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....43-48.
   24 HR TREND......13 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........80-85 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.02-0.17 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    UNTIL 1200...THEN RAIN LIKELY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....66-71.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........56-61 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......37 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1290).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 9 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 21
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.09-0.31 IN.

.MONDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    UNTIL 2400...THEN SCATTERED SPRINKLES.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....38-43.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........87-92 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (180).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 18 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.08-0.19 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SPRINKLES. SCATTERED FLURRIES AFTER 0800 UNTIL
                    1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....46-51.
   24 HR TREND......19 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........49-54 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1200).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. SCATTERED SPRINKLES IN THE EVENING.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS AROUND 50. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND
5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE MID 30S.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. EAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.FRIDAY...RAIN LIKELY. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S.
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 30. HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 40S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

$$

JZ





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