Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FNUS73 KABR 221348
FWSABR

Spot Forecast for Miller WPA...US Fish and Wildlife Service
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
848 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1600 CDT on May 22.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service in Aberdeen SD.

.DISCUSSION...
It`s raining right now at and all around the burn site. Per the radar,
the current light precipitation event should be finishing up by 1 PM
CDT this afternoon. Hi-resolution short term models do indicate the
potential for "heat of the day" afternoon scattered showers and weak
thunderstorms over the region, though. Similar to yesterday,
afternoon showers and thunderstorms will probably carry with them
some higher gust potential, perhaps as high as 30 mph sustained with
gusts as high as 40 to 45 mph.

So, outside of convective influences, the burn site is sitting in a
weak surface trof, which is forecast to slide south away from the burn
site by mid-day. Within this surface trof, light northerly winds
prevail but could vary from 320 degrees all the way over to 040 degrees
until that trof departs to the south. At that point, surface winds take
on more of a 340-360 prevailing direction and probably bump up to
around 10 to 20 mph with gusts as high as 25 mph. Feel free to call out
here to the office if the forecast is out of wack...605 225 0519.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (65-75 percent cloud). Showers this
                    morning, then a chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....61-66.
Min humidity........36-41 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 7 to 16 mph with gusts up to 25 mph,
                    increasing to 16 to 21 mph with gusts up to 30 mph
                    in the afternoon. Winds will be stronger in and
                    around showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Mixing height.......800 ft agl, increasing to 7900-8500 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Northwest 13 to 18 mph, becoming north 14 to 21
                    mph in the late morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3500-36700), increasing to very good
                    (111600-144800) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 (moderate).

TIME (CDT)      4PM 5PM 6PM
Sky (%).........59  64  69
Weather cov.....CH  CH SCH
Weather type....TRW TRW RW
Tstm cov........
Temp............62  63  63
RH..............42  39  39
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..17  17  16
20 FT wind gust.25  25  25

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent cloud). A chance
                    of showers early in the evening, then a slight
                    chance of showers late.
Min temperature.....40-45.
Max humidity........77-82 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 7 to 16 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph
                    early in the evening.
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Mixing height.......5000-5500 ft agl, decreasing to 100-600 ft agl
                    in the late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....North 24 to 29 mph, decreasing to 13 to 22 mph
                    in the late evening.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good, decreasing to poor (3200-4700) in
                    the late evening and overnight.
Haines Index........4 (low).

TIME (CDT)      7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM
Sky (%).........75  78  81  85  86  87  89  83  77  71  73  75
Weather cov.....CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH                         SCH
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW                          RW
Tstm cov........
Temp............61  58  54  52  50  49  47  46  46  44  44  43
RH..............44  49  57  61  66  68  74  76  79  82  82  82
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   N   NW  NW  NW  NW  N   N
20 FT wind spd..16  14  10  8   7   8   7   8   9   10  12  12
20 FT wind gust.25  20  15  10  10  10  10  10  15  15  15  15

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent cloud). A slight
                    chance of showers.
Max temperature.....56-61.
Min humidity........45-50 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 10 to 18 mph with gusts up to 30
                    mph, increasing to 20 to 22 mph with gusts up
                    to 30 mph late in the morning.
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Mixing height.......2100-2600 ft agl, increasing to 5200-6200 ft
                    agl in the late morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....North 23 to 28 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair, increasing to very good (125300-149100)
                    in the late morning and afternoon.
Haines Index........3 (very low).

TIME (CDT)      7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM
Sky (%).........78  80  82  84  85  86  87  85  84  82  79  75
Weather cov.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Temp............44  46  48  51  52  53  53  55  56  57  58  58
RH..............76  73  71  63  61  57  57  53  53  51  47  47
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..10  13  14  15  18  21  22  22  21  20  21  21
20 FT wind gust.15  15  20  25  30  30  30  30  30  30  30  30

$$
Forecaster...Dorn
Requested by...Eric Hoggarth
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1709862.0/ABR
.EMAIL Eric_Hoggarth@fws.gov



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