Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FNAK71 PAFC 241426
FWSAER

SPOT FORECAST FOR STEAMBOAT CREEK...AKDOF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
626 AM AKDT SUN JUL 24 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 2130 AKDT ON JULY 23.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

PRETTY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL HAS FALLEN OVER THE FIRE SINCE ABOUT
9:30 PM ON SATURDAY. THIS TREND LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
THE INTERIOR OF ALASKA DROPS SOUTH. THIS WILL LEAVE THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN...PARTICULARLY THE EASTERN HALF...UNDER SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THAT
SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE VALLEY. ONE SIDE EFFECT OF
THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BASED ON THE TOPOGRAPHY NEAR THE FIRE AND THE
ORIENTATION OF THE WIND STREAMLINES...IT APPEARS THAT WINDS COULD GO
FROM RELATIVELY LIGHT TO GUSTY NEAR 25 MPH WITH JUST A FEW DEGREES
CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION. FORECAST UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS HINT THAT WINDS
WILL LIKELY BE MUCH WEAKER AT NIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). WIDESPREAD RAIN
                    SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 61.
MIN HUMIDITY........65-72 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH INCREASING TO 10 TO
                    15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 25 MPH
                    ALSO DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................97 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 4700 TO 5200 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........EAST/SOUTHEAST 13 TO 18 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). WIDESPREAD RAIN
                    SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 47.
MAX HUMIDITY........80-90 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP
                    TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN THE EARLY EVENING.
CWR.................100 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO 900 TO 1300 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIXING WINDS........EAST 10 TO 15 MPH.

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). RAIN.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....56-61.
MIN HUMIDITY........59-64 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 6 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
CWR.................96 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 5700 TO 6200 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........EAST/SOUTHEAST 12 TO 18 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...MCLAY
REQUESTED BY...COPPER RIVER FORESTRY
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20160723.STEAM.01/AER



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