Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS73 KAPX 231241
FWSAPX

SPOT FORECAST FOR FATE BURN...DNR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
841 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 EDT ON JULY 23.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...LARGE EXPANSE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS SITTING ACROSS THE STATE
TODAY AND WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY ACROSS NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN. OVERALL LIGHT WINDS WILL ALSO ALLOW LAKE BREEZES
TO FULLY DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...LIGHT NORTHWEST
WINDS AT THE BURN SITE WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT INTO THE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON...LIKELY BETWEEN 1 PM AND 3 PM...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A
FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS TIMING. BUT WINDS WILL
END UP FROM THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND 80 FOR A HIGH
TEMPERATURE AT THE BURN SITE WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES FALLING TO 30
TO 35 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK OFF AND RH VALUES WILL
COME BACK UP AFTER THE LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPS.


.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........75 AT IGNITION...MAX 81.
RH..................41 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 35 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING
                    NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING LIGHT EARLY IN THE
                    AFTERNOON BECOMING EAST AROUND 5 MPH LATE IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 2 TO 10 MPH INCREASING TO 9 TO 12 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4400 FT AGL AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE 4400-5600 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (600) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT
                    (700).

TIME (EDT)      12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........15  17  19  16  11  9
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............75  76  78  80  81  81
RH..............41  39  37  35  35  37
20 FT WIND DIR..NW  N   E   E   E   E
20 FT WIND SPD..5   5   4   4   5   5
20 FT WIND GUST.10  10  10  10  10  10
HAINES INDEX....4   4   5   5   4   4
SMOKE DISP......600 700 700 700 700 600

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 57.
RH..................MAX 86 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 8 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........9   9   9   12  16  19  20  23  24  28  35  38
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............79  76  74  69  65  62  60  59  59  58  58  58
RH..............41  46  51  63  70  78  81  83  83  83  83  86
20 FT WIND DIR..E   E   SE  SE  S   S   SW  SW  SW  W   W   W
20 FT WIND SPD..6   6   5   4   4   3   3   3   2   2   2   3
20 FT WIND GUST.10  10  10  10  5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5

$$
FORECASTER...BRIAN ADAM
REQUESTED BY...JIM FISHER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150723.FATEB.01/APX



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