Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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000
FNUS75 KBOU 210607
FWSBOU

Spot Forecast for ELKHORN CREEK...NATURE CONSERVANCY
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1207 AM MDT Thu Sep 21 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 2300 MDT on September 20.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Thursday will be a warm, dry, and breezy day with weather
approaching Red Flag conditions for a few hours in the afternoon. On
Friday, humidities will be higher, and winds probably a little less.
A cooler and wetter period will begin Friday night, with some rain likely
Friday night into Saturday. Cooler weather will continue through much of
next week with more showers possible.

.REST OF TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear.
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....40-45.
Max humidity........63-66%.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 2-6 mph.
Mixing height.......below 1000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor.
Haines Index........4 low.

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....72-76.
Min humidity........15-18%.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 9-15 mph. Gusts up to 30 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......Rising to 3000 ft AGL by 1000 and 10000 ft AGL
                    by 1300.
Transport winds.....Southwest 15 mph increasing to 25 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 0900, then good until 1100, then
                    excellent.
Haines Index........6 high.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear.
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....43-47.
Max humidity........50-55%.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 6-12 mph. Gusts up to 20 mph
                    early in the evening.
Mixing height.......8000 ft AGL until 1900 lowering to 1500 ft AGL after
                    2100.
Transport winds.....Southwest 15-25 mph until 2400, then 10-15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent until 1900, then very good until
                    2000, then fair until 2100, then poor.
Haines Index........6 high.

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny until 0800, then partly
                    cloudy(40-50%) until 1500, then mostly
                    cloudy(60-65%). Chance of rain showers and
                    slight chance of thunderstorms after 1200.
CWR.................0 percent increasing to 10 percent in the
                    afternoon.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 2.
Max temperature.....63-67.
Min humidity........29-33%.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 6-12 mph. Gusts up to 20 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms after
                    1200.
Mixing height.......Rising to 3000 ft AGL by 1000 and 10000 ft AGL
                    by 1300.
Transport winds.....Southwest 20 mph increasing to 30 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair until 0800, then good until 1100, then excellent.
Haines Index........4 low.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SATURDAY...
Cooler. Rain showers likely with possible snow showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the lower 50s.
East winds around 5 mph.
.SUNDAY...
Cloudy. Chance of rain and snow showers. Lows in the mid 30s.
Highs in the upper 40s. Northeast winds 5-6 mph.
.MONDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers, snow showers and slight
chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the
upper 40s. Northeast winds around 5 mph.


Fire Weather Table for ELKHORN CREEK.

+++  Data in the following table has been sampled directly from the
     forecast database.  Values in the table may vary slightly from
     information in the narrative forecast.  Feedback welcome.  +++

FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH  20-FT  G H L  15KFT  MIXG  TRANS VENTL  AJTV
VALID AT  %  %  %  F  %   WIND  S I A   WIND   HGT   WIND  RATE RATNG
                           MPH  T   L    MPH   AGL    MPH KT-FT

09/20-23  3  0  0 49 54 WSW  6  7 3 1         1067  SW 15 13403 P
09/21-00  1  0  0 47 58 SSW  7  7 4 1         1046  SW 17 15335 P
09/21-01  1  0  0 47 56  SW  8 13 3 1         1059  SW 18 16622 P
09/21-02  1  0  0 47 53  SW  9 14 3 1         1071 SSW 20 17934 P
09/21-03  1  0  0 46 53  SW  9 15 2 1         1084 SSW 21 19273 P
09/21-04  1  0  0 45 54  SW  9 14 2 1         1122 SSW 20 19270 P
09/21-05  1  0  0 44 56  SW  8 13 2 1         1161  SW 20 19220 P
09/21-06  1  0  0 45 53 WSW  8 13 2 1         1199  SW 18 19123 P
09/21-07  3  0  0 47 49  SW  9 14 2 1         1991  SW 22 38264 P
09/21-08  5  0  0 51 43  SW 10 16 3 1         2783  SW 25 62586   G
09/21-09  7  0  0 56 35  SW 12 18 3 1         3575  SW 30 92087   G
09/21-10  9  0  0 61 29  SW 13 21 3 1         5313  SW 30137165    V
09/21-11 10  0  0 65 25 SSW 15 23 4 1         7052  SW 30182433     E
09/21-12 12  0  0 69 22 SSW 16 25 4 1         8790  SW 30227891     E
09/21-13 13  0  0 71 20 SSW 17 28 5 1         9760  SW 30252984     E
09/21-14 14  0  0 73 18 SSW 18 30 5 1        10730 SSW 30278069     E
09/21-15 15  0  0 74 17 SSW 18 30 6 1        11699 SSW 30303144     E
09/21-16 17  0  0 74 16 SSW 17 28 6 1        10712 SSW 28258725     E
09/21-17 18  0  0 73 16   S 15 23 5 1         9726 SSW 25216923     E
09/21-18 19  0  0 70 18   S 12 18 5 1         8739 SSW 23178767     E
09/21-19 19  0  0 66 19 SSW 10 17 5 1         6311  SW 20106995    V
09/21-20 20  0  0 60 23  SW  9 15 6 1         3883  SW 15 52231  F
09/21-21 20  0  0 56 26 WSW  8 13 6 1         1455  SW 12 14473 P
09/21-22 20  0  0 53 31 WSW  7  7 5 1         1344  SW 12 13385 P
09/21-23 20  0  0 52 34 WSW  7  7 5 1         1233  SW 12 12295 P
09/22-00 20  0  0 51 38 WSW  7  7 4 1         1123 SSW 12 11202 P
09/22-01 20  0  0 51 38 WSW  7  7 4 1         1498  SW 13 16883 P
09/22-02 20  0  0 50 39  SW  6  6 4 1         1873  SW 15 23533 P
09/22-03 20  0  0 49 40  SW  6  6 3 1         2248  SW 16 31155 P
09/22-04 20  0  0 47 45  SW  6  6 3 1         2040  SW 16 28617 P
09/22-05 20  0  0 45 50  SW  7  7 2 1         1832  SW 16 26010 P
09/22-06 20  7  1 45 53  SW  7  7 2 1         1624  SW 16 23331 P
09/22-07 25  7  1 47 53 SSW  7  7 2 1         2516  SW 21 44729  F
09/22-08 31  7  1 50 51 SSW  7  7 2 1         3408  SW 24 72208   G
09/22-09 36  7  1 55 45 SSW  8 13 2 1         4300  SW 29105770    V
09/22-10 41  7  1 59 39 SSW  9 15 2 1         6079  SW 31162260     E
09/22-11 46  7  1 62 34 SSW 12 18 3 1         7858  SW 33226209     E
09/22-12 51 33 12 64 31   S 13 21 3 2         9636 SSW 36297618     E
09/22-13 54 33 12 65 32   S 13 21 3 2        10495 SSW 33300011     E
09/22-14 58 33 12 65 33   S 13 20 4 2        11354 SSW 30298454     E
09/22-15 61 33 12 64 37   S 12 18 4 2        12212 SSW 28292948     E
09/22-16 63 33 12 64 38 SSW 12 17 4 2        10926 SSW 28258268     E
09/22-17 64 33 12 63 41 WSW 10 16 4 2         9640  SW 26224490     E
09/22-18 66 29  8 60 46 WSW  9 15 4 2         8354  SW 26191613     E
09/22-19 66 29  8 56 53   W  7  7 4 2         6235 WSW 23121620    V
09/22-20 67 29  8 52 60  NW  5  5 3 2         4115   W 18 66163   G
09/22-21 67 29  8 48 68  NW  3  3 3 2         1996   W 15 25243 P
09/22-22 65 29  8 46 73 NNW  3  3 3 2         1704   W 13 19240 P
09/22-23 63 29  8 45 74   N  3  3 3 2         1413 WNW 12 14030 P
09/23-00 61 19  4 45 73   N  3  3 3 1         1121  NW 10  9611 P
09/23-01 63 19  4 44 75 NNE  3  3 3 1         1241 NNW  9 10550 P
09/23-02 66 19  4 43 77  NE  3  3 2 1         1361   N  9 11471 P
09/23-03 68 19  4 42 79 ENE  3  3 2 1         1481 NNE  9 12375 P
09/23-04 71 19  4 41 82 ENE  3  3 2 1         1522 NNE  8 11393 P
09/23-05 75 19  4 40 85 ENE  5  5 2 1         1562 ENE  8 10341 P
09/23-06 78 39 17 39 89 ENE  5  5 2 1         1603   E  7  9219 P
09/23-07 79 39 17 39 89 ENE  5  5 2 1         1815   E  9 13801 P
09/23-08 82 39 17 39 90   E  5  5 2 1         2027   E 10 19170 P
09/23-09 83 39 17 41 86   E  5  5 2 1         2240 ESE 13 25326 P
09/23-10 83 39 17 44 79   E  6  6 2 1         2531 ESE 14 29605 P
09/23-11 84 39 17 48 71 ESE  6  6 2 1         2823 ESE 14 34109 P
09/23-12 84 57 33 50 68 ESE  7  7 2 1         3114 ESE 14 38840 P
09/23-13 86 57 33 50 69 ESE  7  7 2 1         3154 ESE 15 40170  F
09/23-14 89 57 33 48 74 ESE  7  7 2 1         3194 ESE 15 41520  F
09/23-15 91 57 33 46 79   E  7  7 2 1         3234 ESE 15 42892  F
09/23-16 90 57 33 46 82   E  6  6 2 1         3249   E 12 33835 P
09/23-17 89 57 33 46 84 ENE  6  6 2 1         3263 ENE  9 24695 P
09/23-18 88 47 23 46 86  NE  5  5 2 1         3278  NE  6 15472 P

KEY:

FORECAST    - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST
VALID AT    - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/
SC          - SKY COVER /PERCENT/
PP          - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/
WR          - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/
AT          - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/
RH          - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/
20-FT WIND  - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/
GST         - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/
HI          - HAINES INDEX
LAL         - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL
15KFT WIND  - 15000 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/
MIXG HGT    - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/
TRANS WIND  - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/
VENTL RATE  - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/
AJTV RATNG  - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING
                P - POOR  F - FAIR  G - GOOD
                V - VERY GOOD  E - EXCELLENT

$$
FORECASTER...GIMMESTAD
REQUESTED BY...CARMELLA LOCASCIO
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1715992.2/BOU


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