Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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000
FNUS75 KBOU 261618 AAA
FWSBOU

SPOT FORECAST FOR KEYHOLE RECON 0930...ROCKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1017 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON INCIDENT TIME OF 0909 MDT ON JULY 26.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE ARE ALREADY MOVING EAST OF THE SAR AREA
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...A SHORT PERIOD OF SUNSHINE AND A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL AGAIN PRODUCE A THICK CLOUD DECK AS WELL
AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
BY LATE AFTERNOON IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN FRONT RANGE. GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...BRIEF
INTENSE RAINFALL WITH PASSING STORM CELLS COULD BRIEFLY LOWER
TEMPERATURES BY AS MUCH AS 30 DEGREES. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD THEN MOVE EAST OF THE SAR AREA BY MID TO LATE EVENING...WITH
GRADUAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%) UNTIL 1200. THEN CLOUD WITH
                    ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1300...THEN SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 72.
MIN HUMIDITY........27-31%.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 8-11 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH LATE IN
                    THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS TO AROUND 40
                    MPH EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1300.
CWR.................5 PERCENT INCREASING TO 40 PERCENT.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1100...THEN 2 UNTIL 1200...THEN 3 UNTIL
                    1300...THEN 4 UNTIL 1400...THEN 5 UNTIL
                    1800.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 2200...THEN PARTLY
                    CLOUDY(40-50%). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2000...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
                    OF SHOWERS UNTIL 2200...THEN DRY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 46.
MAX HUMIDITY........77%.
WIND (20 FT)........DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2300.
CWR.................5 PERCENT.
LAL.................3 UNTIL 2200...THEN 2 UNTIL 2300...THEN 1.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%) UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
                    1000 UNTIL 1200...THEN CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 65.
MIN HUMIDITY........43%.
WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1000.
CWR.................5 PERCENT INCREASING TO 10 PERCENT IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1000...THEN 2 UNTIL 1100...THEN 3 UNTIL
                    1200...THEN 4.


FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR KEYHOLE RECON 0930.

+++  DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE
     FORECAST DATABASE.  VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM
     INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST.  FEEDBACK WELCOME.  +++

FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH  20-FT  G H L  15KFT  MIXG  TRANS VENTL  AJTV
VALID AT  %  %  %  F  %   WIND  S I A   WIND   HGT   WIND  RATE RATNG
                           MPH  T   L    MPH   AGL    MPH KT-FT

07/26-09 79  0  0 66 33   W 13 20 3 1 WNW 24  9065 WNW 20158245     E
07/26-10 78 10  2 70 28 WSW 12 17 3 2 WNW 21  9499   W 18152357     E
07/26-11 76 20  4 72 27 WSW 10 16 2 3   W 18  9933   W 17146469    V
07/26-12 64 31 10 72 28 WSW 10 16 2 4   W 15 10367   W 16140581    V
07/26-13 82 43 20 72 30   W 10 16 2 4   W 15  9980   W 16135927    V
07/26-14 97 56 32 70 35   W 12 17 2 5   W 15  9593   W 16131273    V
07/26-15 97 56 32 67 42 WNW 12 17 2 5   W 15  9206   W 16126619    V
07/26-16100 54 29 65 44 WNW 10 15 2 4   W 16  8950   W 16122203    V
07/26-17 97 51 27 63 45 WNW  8  8 2 4 WNW 16  8693   W 16117787    V
07/26-18 85 24  5 63 43 WNW  7  7 2 3 WNW 16  8437 WNW 15113371    V
07/26-19 86 24  5 61 46 WNW  6  6 2 3 WNW 15  6697 WNW 15 88039   G
07/26-20 83 20  4 58 51 WNW  6  6 3 3  NW 14  4957   W 14 62707   G
07/26-21 66 16  3 56 55   W  6  6 3 3  NW 13  3216   W 14 37376 P
07/26-22 58 10  2 53 60   W  6  6 3 2 NNW 10  3166 WNW 12 30473 P
07/26-23 51  6  1 51 64   W  6  6 3 1 NNW  9  3115 WNW  8 23569 P
07/27-00 46  5  1 50 66   W  6  6 3 1   N  8  3065 WNW  6 16666 P
07/27-01 41  5  1 49 69   W  6  6 3 1  NW  6  2798  NW  5 12068 P
07/27-02 37  5  1 49 70   W  5  5 2 1   W  3  2530 NNW  3  7470 P
07/27-03 32  5  1 49 71   W  5  5 2 1 WSW  2  2263   CALM  2873 P
07/27-04 36  5  1 47 75   W  5  5 2 1 WSW  5  2061  NE  2  4027 P
07/27-05 40  5  1 46 77   W  3  3 3 1 WSW  6  1860 ESE  3  5181 P
07/27-06 42  3  1 47 74   W  3  3 3 1 WSW  8  1658 SSE  5  6335 P
07/27-07 44  5  1 51 65 WSW  3  3 3 1 WSW  9  2816   S  6 16708 P
07/27-08 45  7  1 56 56   S  5  5 3 1   W  9  3973 SSW  7 27080 P
07/27-09 46  8  2 61 50  SE  5  5 3 1   W 10  5131  SW  8 37453 P
07/27-10 52 10  2 63 47  SE  5  5 3 2 WNW 10  6273 WSW  9 48145  F
07/27-11 57 18  4 65 43  SE  6  6 2 3  NW 12  7416   W  9 58838  F
07/27-12 63 26  6 65 43 ESE  6  6 2 4  NW 12  8558 WNW  9 69531   G
07/27-13 64 28  8 65 43 ESE  6  6 2 4  NW 10  8442 WNW  8 62704   G
07/27-14 64 29  8 64 45 ESE  7  7 2 4 WNW  9  8326   W  8 55877  F
07/27-15 65 31 10 63 48 ESE  7  7 2 4 WNW  9  8210   W  7 49051  F
07/27-16 67 29  8 62 53 ESE  8 13 2 4 WNW  7  7700   W  6 38847 P
07/27-17 70 26  6 61 58 ESE  8 14 2 4 WNW  6  7189 WSW  5 28644 P
07/27-18 71 24  5 59 64 ESE  9 15 2 3 WNW  5  6678 WSW  3 18441 P
07/27-19 71 24  5 56 70 ESE  9 15 2 3 WNW  3  5237  SW  5 17446 P
07/27-20 71 24  5 53 74 ESE  9 15 3 3   W  3  3795   S  6 16452 P
07/27-21 70 20  4 50 80  SE  9 15 3 3   W  2  2354 SSE  8 15458 P
07/27-22 70 20  4 48 89  SE  8 14 3 3   W  3  2075   S  8 13586 P
07/27-23 70 20  4 47 97 SSE  8 13 3 3   W  5  1797   S  8 11715 P
07/28-00 49 16  3 46100 SSE  7  7 3 1   W  6  1518   S  7  9844 P
07/28-01 49 16  3 46 98   S  6  6 3 1   W  6  1441   S  7  8580 P
07/28-02 49 16  3 46 91 WSW  6  6 3 1   W  6  1364 WSW  6  7317 P
07/28-03 50 16  3 45 89   W  5  5 3 1 WNW  6  1286   W  6  6053 P
07/28-04 50 16  3 44 95   W  5  5 3 1 WNW  8  1272 WSW  5  5334 P
07/28-05 50 16  3 44100  SW  5  5 3 1  NW 10  1258  SW  5  4614 P
07/28-06 61 19  4 46 96 SSW  5  5 3 3 NNW 13  1243 SSW  3  3894 P
07/28-07 61 19  4 50 81 SSE  5  5 3 3 NNW 13  3167 WSW  6 24933 P
07/28-08 61 19  4 56 63 ENE  6  6 4 3 NNW 14  5090  NW  8 45973  F
07/28-09 61 19  4 61 52 NNE  6  6 4 3 NNW 14  7013 NNW 12 67012   G
07/28-10 61 19  4 64 47  NE  6  6 3 3 NNW 14  7730 NNW 10 68615   G
07/28-11 61 19  4 65 47   E  6  6 3 3 NNW 13  8447 NNW  9 70218   G
07/28-12 78 42 19 65 48   E  6  6 2 4 NNW 13  9164 NNW  9 71821   G
07/28-13 78 42 19 64 51   E  7  7 2 4 NNW 10  8656 NNW  7 52275  F
07/28-14 78 42 19 63 53 ESE  9 15 2 4 NNW  7  8149   N  5 32729 P
07/28-15 78 42 19 62 56 ESE 10 16 2 4 NNW  5  7642 NNE  2 13183 P
07/28-16 78 42 19 61 58 ESE 10 16 2 4 WNW  5  7493 ENE  2 18409 P
07/28-17 78 42 19 59 62 ESE 10 16 2 4  SW  5  7344  SE  3 23635 P
07/28-18 85 40 18 58 64 ESE  9 15 2 4 SSW  6  7195   S  5 28861 P
07/28-19 85 40 18 56 70 ESE  9 14 2 4 SSW  6  6667   S  6 33316 P
07/28-20 85 40 18 54 76 SSE  8 14 2 4  SW  7  6140 SSW  7 37771 P
07/28-21 85 40 18 53 80 SSE  8 13 2 4  SW  8  5613 SSW  9 42227  F
07/28-22 85 40 18 51 88   S  7  7 2 4  SW 10  4968 SSW  9 40293  F
07/28-23 85 40 18 50 92   S  7  7 2 4 WSW 13  4322 SSW 10 38360 P
07/29-00 76 29  8 49 96   S  6  6 2 4 WSW 14  3677 SSW 12 36427 P
07/29-01 76 29  8 49 95 SSW  6  6 2 4 WSW 15  3297 SSW 10 30414 P
07/29-02 76 29  8 48 95  SW  6  6 2 4 WSW 15  2917 SSW  9 24400 P
07/29-03 76 29  8 47 96  SW  6  6 2 4 WSW 15  2537  SW  8 18387 P
07/29-04 76 29  8 46 98 WSW  6  6 2 4 WSW 15  2663  SW  8 18653 P
07/29-05 76 29  8 46 97   W  7  7 2 4   W 14  2789 WSW  8 18919 P
07/29-06 67 32 11 47 93   W  7  7 2 4   W 13  2915   W  8 19184 P

KEY:

FORECAST    - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST
VALID AT    - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/
SC          - SKY COVER /PERCENT/
PP          - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/
WR          - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/
AT          - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/
RH          - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/
20-FT WIND  - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/
GST         - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/
HI          - HAINES INDEX
LAL         - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL
15KFT WIND  - 15000 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/
MIXG HGT    - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/
TRANS WIND  - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/
VENTL RATE  - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/
AJTV RATNG  - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING
                P - POOR  F - FAIR  G - GOOD
                V - VERY GOOD  E - EXCELLENT

$$
FORECASTER...BAKER...NWS BOULDER
REQUESTED BY...ROMO DISPATCH
TYPE OF REQUEST...SAR
.TAG 20140726.KEYHO.01/BOU


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