Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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000
FNUS75 KBOU 211221
FWSBOU

Spot Forecast for Deer Mountain...National Park Service
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
521 AM MST Wed Feb 21 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 MST on February 21.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...A dry and cold airmass continues across the area
this morning. Temperatures will be slightly warmer than yesterday
along with fair dispersion by later this morning through
mid afternoon. A storm system across the Great Basin will spread
clouds and a chance of light snow in the burn area by tonight, but snow
accumulations will be under an inch.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny until 1300, then partly
                    cloudy(40-50%) until 1600, then mostly
                    cloudy(60-65%).
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 26.
Min humidity........37%.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 2-6 mph until 1000...then Southwest winds 6-12 mph.
Mixing height.......2100-3100 ft AGL until 1100, then 3400-4400 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 10-15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 1100, then fair until 1500, then
                    poor.
Haines Index........2 very low.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of snow until
                    2300, then chance of snow.
CWR.................10 percent increasing to 15 percent early in
                    the morning.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 9 above.
Max humidity........80%.
Wind (20 ft)........Variable up to 5 mph until 2000. winds west 4-8
                    mph after 0200.
Mixing height.......1300-1900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Light winds until 2300, then southwest around
                    10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor.
Haines Index........2 very low.

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers.
CWR.................10 percent increasing to 20 percent in the
                    afternoon.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 24.
Min humidity........50%.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5-6 mph.
Mixing height.......1500-2500 ft AGL until 1000, then 6400-7400 ft
                    AGL until 1600, then 4700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 10-15 mph until 1100, then southwest 15-25
                    mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 1000, then fair until 1100, then
                    good until 1200, then very good until 1400,
                    then excellent until 1500, then very good until
                    1600, then fair.
Haines Index........3 very low.


Fire Weather Table for Deer Mountain.

+++  Data in the following table has been sampled directly from the
     forecast database.  Values in the table may vary slightly from
     information in the narrative forecast.  Feedback welcome.  +++

FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH  20-FT  G H L  15KFT  MIXG  TRANS VENTL  AJTV
VALID AT  %  %  %  F  %   WIND  S I A   WIND   HGT   WIND  RATE RATNG
                           MPH  T   L    MPH   AGL    MPH KT-FT

02/21-08 15  0  0  5 57 WSW  5  5 2 1         1396 WSW  8  9996 P
02/21-09 16  0  0  9 52  SW  5  5 2 1         2497 WSW 10 21482 P
02/21-10 16  1  0 14 46 SSW  5  5 2 1         3597  SW 12 36145 P
02/21-11 17  3  1 18 42   S  5  5 2 1         4698  SW 13 53987  F
02/21-12 26  4  1 22 37   S  5  5 2 1         4761  SW 13 50868  F
02/21-13 35  6  1 23 38 SSE  6  6 2 1         4825  SW 12 47646  F
02/21-14 44  7  1 23 39 SSE  6  6 2 1         4888  SW 10 44323  F
02/21-15 52  9  2 21 45 SSE  6  6 2 1         3903 SSW  9 29584 P
02/21-16 61 10  2 19 49 SSE  5  5 2 1         2918   S  7 17776 P
02/21-17 70 22  4 16 58 SSE  3  5 2 1         1933 SSE  6  8899 P
02/21-18 72 22  4 13 70 SSW  2  3 2 1         1792   S  5  6758 P
02/21-19 75 22  4 11 76   CALM  2 2 1         1651 SSW  3  4852 P
02/21-20 76 22  4 10 80   CALM  2 2 1         1510 SSW  2  3180 P
02/21-21 74 22  4 10 76   CALM  2 2 1         1438 SSW  2  3539 P
02/21-22 71 22  4 10 76   W  2  3 2 1         1367 SSW  3  3847 P
02/21-23 69 26  6 10 73 WSW  2  3 2 1         1295 SSW  3  4104 P
02/22-00 68 28  8 10 73 WSW  2  3 2 1         1387  SW  5  5154 P
02/22-01 67 30  9  9 76   W  3  3 2 1         1480  SW  5  6305 P
02/22-02 66 32 11  9 76   W  3  3 2 1         1572 WSW  6  7557 P
02/22-03 65 34 13  9 76   W  3  3 2 1         1594 WSW  7  8888 P
02/22-04 64 36 14  9 76   W  5  5 2 1         1617 WSW  7  9942 P
02/22-05 63 29  8 10 73   W  5  5 2 1         1639 WSW  8 11022 P
02/22-06 63 29  8 11 70   W  3  3 2 1         1449 WSW  7  8228 P
02/22-07 64 29  8 11 71   W  3  3 2 1         1259   W  6  5832 P
02/22-08 64 29  8 13 67   W  3  3 2 1         1069   W  5  3834 P
02/22-09 66 29  8 15 64   W  5  5 2 1         2869   W  8 21126 P
02/22-10 71 29  8 18 59 WSW  6  6 3 1         4669 WSW 13 52016  F
02/22-11 73 43 20 21 54  SW  7  7 3 1         6469 WSW 17 96505   G
02/22-12 73 43 20 23 51  SW  7  7 3 1         6934 WSW 20115251    V
02/22-13 73 43 20 24 50 WSW  7  7 3 1         7398 WSW 21135580    V
02/22-14 73 43 20 24 50 WSW  7  7 3 1         7863 WSW 23157492     E
02/22-15 75 43 20 23 52 WSW  6  6 3 1         6281 WSW 18102939    V
02/22-16 80 43 20 21 56   W  6  6 3 1         4700   W 15 59904  F
02/22-17 82 23  5 18 62   W  5  5 3 1         3118   W 10 28389 P
02/22-18 78 23  5 16 64   W  5  5 3 1         2578   W  9 21399 P
02/22-19 69 23  5 15 64 WSW  5  5 3 1         2038   W  8 15278 P
02/22-20 65 23  5 14 64 WSW  5  5 2 1         1498   W  8 10026 P
02/22-21 65 23  5 13 66 WSW  5  5 2 1         1450   W  9 11208 P
02/22-22 66 23  5 12 70 WSW  5  5 2 1         1401 WSW 10 12289 P
02/22-23 66 19  4 12 70 WSW  5  5 2 1         1353 WSW 12 13270 P
02/23-00 64 19  4 11 71 WSW  6  6 2 1         1313 WSW 10 12091 P
02/23-01 61 19  4 11 68 WSW  7  7 2 1         1273 WSW 10 10960 P
02/23-02 59 19  4 11 66 WSW  8 13 2 1         1233 WSW  9  9877 P
02/23-03 58 19  4 11 67 WSW  8 13 2 1         1268 WSW 10 10787 P
02/23-04 57 19  4 12 65 WSW  7  7 2 1         1303 WSW 10 11732 P
02/23-05 56 19  4 12 67 WSW  7  7 2 1         1338 WSW 12 12712 P
02/23-06 55 19  4 13 64 WSW  7  7 2 1         1992 WSW 14 24085 P
02/23-07 53 19  4 14 61 WSW  7  7 3 1         2646 WSW 17 38846 P
02/23-08 52 19  4 16 56 WSW  7  7 3 1         3299 WSW 20 56995  F
02/23-09 53 19  4 19 50  SW  7  7 3 1         5282 WSW 22 98378   G
02/23-10 56 19  4 23 44  SW  8  8 3 1         7265 WSW 23145116    V
02/23-11 57 31 10 26 40 SSW  8 13 3 1         9248 WSW 24197208     E
02/23-12 61 31 10 28 38  SW  8 14 3 1         9722 WSW 24200188     E
02/23-13 70 31 10 28 40  SW  9 15 4 1        10197 WSW 23202471     E
02/23-14 74 31 10 27 42  SW  9 15 4 1        10671 WSW 22204057     E
02/23-15 75 31 10 26 44  SW  8 14 4 1         9413 WSW 21170912     E
02/23-16 78 31 10 24 48   W  8 13 4 1         8154 WSW 20140195    V
02/23-17 79 28  8 21 54   W  7  7 4 1         6895 WSW 18111904    V
02/23-18 76 28  8 19 60   W  7  7 3 1         5499   W 15 73579   G
02/23-19 69 28  8 17 67   W  7  7 3 1         4103 WNW 13 43210  F
02/23-20 65 28  8 15 73   W  7  7 3 1         2707 WNW  9 20795 P
02/23-21 65 28  8 15 72   W  7  7 3 1         2698 WNW 10 25086 P
02/23-22 64 28  8 15 70   W  7  7 3 1         2689 WNW 13 29346 P
02/23-23 64 14  3 14 70   W  7  7 3 1         2680 WNW 15 33577 P
02/24-00 60 14  3 13 70   W  8  8 3 1         2459 WNW 17 36453 P
02/24-01 52 14  3 12 70   W  8 14 3 1         2239 WNW 20 38319 P
02/24-02 48 14  3 11 70   W  9 15 3 1         2018 WNW 22 39173 P
02/24-03 44 14  3 10 70   W 10 16 3 1         2126   W 25 46893  F
02/24-04 35 14  3 10 68   W 10 17 2 1         2234   W 29 55183  F
02/24-05 31  2  0 11 63   W 12 18 2 1         2341   W 31 64044   G

KEY:

FORECAST    - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST
VALID AT    - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/
SC          - SKY COVER /PERCENT/
PP          - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/
WR          - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/
AT          - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/
RH          - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/
20-FT WIND  - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/
GST         - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/
HI          - HAINES INDEX
LAL         - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL
15KFT WIND  - 15000 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/
MIXG HGT    - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/
TRANS WIND  - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/
VENTL RATE  - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/
AJTV RATNG  - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING
                P - POOR  F - FAIR  G - GOOD
                V - VERY GOOD  E - EXCELLENT

$$
FORECASTER...ENTREKIN
REQUESTED BY...Justin Humrichouse
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1802241.0/BOU



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