Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FNUS71 KBTV 282213
FWSBTV

Spot Forecast for Post Mills Nature Area...Thetford Fire Dept
National Weather Service Burlington VT
613 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1900 EDT on April 28.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (802) 658-0207, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
Clouds will be on the increase later tonight with good humidity
recoveries expected during the overnight hours. Winds will become
light and variable. Scattered showers will be moving across the
area during the morning hours on Saturday...but drier air will
move in during the afternoon hours as gusty west winds develop.
Afternoon relative humidities will lower into the 30 to 35 percent
range. The dry weather continues into Saturday night as high
pressure builds into the region. Winds will become a bit more
northerly and good humidity recoveries are expected once again.

.REST OF TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Increasing clouds...especially after midnight
    (70-80 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Begin/end of pcpn...
Min temperature.....Around 50.
Max humidity........86 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 8 mph in the evening,
                    becoming light.
Mixing height.......1800-3400 ft AGL, decreasing to 0-1400 ft AGL
                    in the late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....Southwest 7 to 16 mph, decreasing to 3 to 5 mph
                    after midnight.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      7 PM   9 PM   11 PM  1 AM   3 AM   5 AM
Sky (%).........5      7      23     46     68     75
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0       0     10     10
Temp............68     60     54     52     51     50
RH..............42     51     66     74     80     83
20 ft wind......SW 8   SW 6   W 5    SW 3   SW 3   S 3
20 ft wind gust.10     10     10     5      5      5
Mix hgt (ft)....3400   1800   900    300    BLW100 BLW100
Transport wind..W 16   W 14   W 9    SW 5   S 3    SW 3
Haines index....4      4      4      3      3      3

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent) in the morning with
scattered showers, then becoming mostly sunny
 (35-45 percent).
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
Begin/end of pcpn...Starts 800 AM and ends by 12 PM.
Max temperature.....Around 70.
Min humidity........35 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds, becoming west 5 to 14 mph with
                    gusts up to 20 mph in the afternoon, then
                    becoming northwest around 15 mph with gusts
up to 25 mph late by evening.
Mixing height.......200-1800 ft AGL, increasing to 5500-6300 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 3 to 9 mph, increasing to west 23 to
                    30 mph.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........90     95     82     63     49     33
Weather cov.....       CHANCE CHANCE S CHC
Weather type....NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).20     30     30     20     10     10
Temp............50     54     58     64     69     70
RH..............86     80     67     52     42     35
20 ft wind......S 3    SW 3   SW 6   W 9    W 14   NW 15
20 ft wind gust.5      5      10     15     20     25
Mix hgt (ft)....200    700    2800   4700   6300   6300
Transport wind..SW 3   SW 7   W 13   W 20   W 26   W 30
Haines index....3      3      2      2      3      3

.SATURDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Becoming mostly cloudy (50-60 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Begin/end of pcpn...
Min temperature.....Around 38.
Max humidity........82 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 7 to 14 mph. Gusts up to 20 mph
                    late in the evening.
Mixing height.......3600-5500 ft AGL, decreasing to 2500-3200 ft
                    AGL in the late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....Northwest 22 to 29 mph, becoming north 13 to 18
                    mph after midnight.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........29     26     17     27     37     54
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0      10     10     10     10     10
Temp............66     59     51     46     42     38
RH..............37     44     54     63     76     82
20 ft wind......NW 14  NW 12  NW 12  NW 10  N 8    N 7
20 ft wind gust.20     15     20     15     15     15
Mix hgt (ft)....5500   3900   3200   2800   2700   2500
Transport wind..NW 25  NW 23  NW 20  NW 19  N 16   N 14
Haines index....3      3      3      3      3      3

$$
Forecaster...Evenson
Requested by...Chad Whitcomb
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1707987.0/BTV
.EMAIL Chad@whitcombwelding.com



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