Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FNUS73 KEAX 181259
FWSEAX

SPOT FORECAST FOR UNIT 2...USFWS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
759 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 CDT ON APRIL 18.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

CALM AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL EVENTUALLY PICK UP
FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. BY MID DAY EXPECT
S/SE WINDS TO BE AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH. PERHAPS BY
LATE AFTERNOON WINDS WILL HAVE PICKED UP TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 MPH. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY, HOWEVER SOME LOW
QUALITY MOISTURE WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA RESULTING IN GRADUALLY
RISING DEW POINTS. WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
PERHAPS AROUND 70 DEGREES RH VALUES WILL LIKELY HOVER THIS
AFTERNOON / EARLY EVENING IN THE 30 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE.

FOR TONIGHT EXPECT TYPICAL RH RISES AS TEMPERATURES COOL OFF OVERNIGHT.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH.

FOR SATURDAY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP STRONGER THAN FRIDAY. EXPECT
WINDS ON SATURDAY TO REACH 20 TO 25 MPH SUSTAINED, WITH PERHAPS A FEW
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER, AS HIGHS WILL TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 70S. BETTER MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN, SO EVEN THROUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHER RH VALUES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS. GIVEN THAT RH WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS THE
STRONGER WINDS WILL STILL INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.


.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT). AREAS OF FROST EARLY IN
                    THE MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 69.
MIN HUMIDITY........32 PERCENT.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.0 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 14 MPH EARLY IN
                    THE MORNING.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR
                    LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-2000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4400-6000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 1 TO 10 MPH INCREASING TO 12 TO 21
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

TIME (CDT)      10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM   6 PM
SKY (%).........19     13     11     9      7
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............49     57     63     68     66
RH..............60     47     39     32     35
20 FT WIND......SE 6   SE 7   SE 9   S 12   S 14
20 FT WIND GUST.              10     15     20
HAINES INDEX....3      3      3      4      4

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 48.
MAX HUMIDITY........86 PERCENT.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.0 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 14 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3500-5000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 0-1700 FT AGL
                    EARLY IN THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 15 TO 22 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 9
                    TO 12 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

TIME (CDT)      7 PM   9 PM   11 PM  1 AM   3 AM   5 AM
SKY (%).........7      9      12     14     16     18
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............66     60     55     53     51     49
RH..............36     49     61     70     77     84
20 FT WIND......S 14   S 13   S 12   S 10   S 10   S 10
20 FT WIND GUST.20     15     15     15     15     15
HAINES INDEX....4      4      4      4      4      4

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 77.
MIN HUMIDITY........43 PERCENT.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.0 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 12 TO 21 MPH INCREASING TO 18 TO 22
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......MISSING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....

TIME (CDT)      7 AM   9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
SKY (%).........19     25     32     38     38     39
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............48     55     64     71     76     77
RH..............88     79     62     51     45     43
20 FT WIND......S 12   S 15   S 18   S 22   S 21   S 20
20 FT WIND GUST.15     20     30     30     30     30
HAINES INDEX....5      5      5      5      5      5

$$
FORECASTER...LEIGHTON
REQUESTED BY...SAM VANOURNEY
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140418.UNIT2.01/EAX






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