Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FNUS74 KEWX 211310
FWSEWX

Spot Forecast for Unit 7...Texas A&M Forest Service
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
810 AM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CDT on October 21.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Cloudy skies along with a few sprinkles are in store over the burn
site around the time of ignition. A few breaks in the thick cloud
cover can be expected this afternoon as southerly flow in the low
levels keeps humidity levels elevated. Rain chances remain low
this evening, but will increase significantly after midnight as a
cold front approaches from the north. Expect numerous showers and
thunderstorms after midnight tonight through Sunday morning. The
cold front will also bring a sudden and abrupt northerly wind shift
to the burn site shortly after sunrise Sunday morning. Expect gusty
north winds behind the front for most of the day on Sunday.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent).
CWR.................1 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 86.
Min humidity........59 percent.
Eye level winds.....Southeast wind 3 to 5 mph at ignition, becoming
                    South at 6 to 8 mph with gusts to 12 mph after 1200.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast wind 3 to 5 mph at ignition, becoming
                    South at 6 to 9 mph with gusts to 14 mph after 1200.
Mixing height.......Increasing to 4000 ft AGL in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 12 to 18 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 4 OR or very low to low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........90  91  81  70  60  59  58  57  58
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............75  77  78  81  83  85  85  86  86
RH..............87  82  79  72  67  63  61  59  61
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..6   6   7   7   8   8   8   8   8
20 FT wind gust.                11  12  13  11  11
Eye lvl wnd dir.SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S
Eye lvl wnd spd.4   4   5   5   6   6   6   6   6
Eye lvl wnd gst.    5           8   8   10  9   8
Mix hgt (kft)...2.2 2.5 3.0 4.0 4.5 4.7 4.9 5.0 4.7
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.17  17  18  18  18  17  15  14  12
Haines index....3   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Showers and
                    thunderstorms after midnight.
CWR.................5 percent in the evening increasing to
                    70 percent after midnight.
LAL.................No Tstms until 0100, then 16-25 strikes.
Min temperature.....Around 67.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Eye level winds.....South to Southwest winds 7 to 9 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........South to Southwest winds 7 to 9 mph.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms after midnight.
Mixing height.......Decreasing to 1100 ft AGL in the late evening
                    and overnight.
Transport winds.....Southwest 9 to 15 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 4 OR or very low to low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........58  59  56  54  51  64  78  91  92  94  95  94
Weather cov.....                            DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
Weather type....                            RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                            DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   70  70  70  70  70
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   4   4   4   4   4
Temp............84  82  80  78  77  77  77  76  76  76  75  74
RH..............65  72  77  79  82  82  85  87  87  85  84  84
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..7   7   7   7   7   7   7   7   7   7   7   6
20 FT wind gust.
Eye lvl wnd dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW
Eye lvl wnd spd.5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   4
Eye lvl wnd gst.                                            5
Mix hgt (kft)...4.1 3.8 3.1 1.8 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.3
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW
Transp wind spd.10  9   9   10  12  13  14  15  14  13  10  9
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

$$
Forecaster...24
Requested by...Rich Gray
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1717657.0/EWX
.EMAIL shudson@tfs.tamu.edu


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