Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FNUS72 KJAX 201934
FWSJAX

SPOT FORECAST FOR SR11   HAW CREEK RD...FLORIDA HIGHWAY PATROL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
334 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1525 EDT ON MAY 20.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SOUTHEAST GEORGIA LATE
THURSDAY...ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA FRIDAY...THEN BECOME DIFFUSE
SOUTH OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TO THE NORTH. SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED AREA WIDE ON THURSDAY
THEN BECOME MORE CONFINED ACROSS NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA BY LATE IN THE WEEK AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT. HIGH DISPERSIONS ON THURSDAY DUE TO ELEVATED TRANSPORT
WINDS AND MIXING. BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST
BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND. OTHERWISE SUSTAINED WINDS
WILL REMAIN UNDER 15 MPH...BUT MAY BE LOCALLY STRONG AND GUSTY
IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS...BUT WILL DROP TO BELOW 40
PERCENT ACROSS THE SUWANNEE VALLEY TO INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
ON FRIDAY.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS...SIGNIFICANT FOG IS NOT EXPECTED
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING...THEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 71.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2300-3900 FT AGL DECREASING TO 200-1900 FT AGL
                    IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 8 TO 13 MPH.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........75     68     51     38     29     19
WEATHER COV.....LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV........LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE
TEMP............88     83     79     76     74     72
RH..............57     67     77     85     90     97
20 FT WIND......SE 8   S 6    SW 3   SW 3   SW 3   SW 3
20 FT WIND GUST.15     10     5      5      5      5

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 91.
MIN HUMIDITY........50 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 7 MPH.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5100-6100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 13 MPH.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........23     47     47     48     59     59
WEATHER COV.....                     S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........                            CHANCE CHANCE
TEMP............71     74     83     88     91     91
RH..............100    93     70     57     50     50
20 FT WIND......W 3    W 7    W 7    W 7    W 6    SW 6
20 FT WIND GUST.5      10     10     10     10     10

$$
FORECASTER...WOLF
REQUESTED BY...SGT J H  JOHNSON
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150520.SR11H.01/JAX


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