Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
000
FNUS72 KJAX 020950
FWSJAX

SPOT FORECAST FOR DCC5 C9...FLORIDA PARK SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
550 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON MAY 02.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...ELEVATED DISPERSION VALUES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.DISCUSSION...
SEASONABLY HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS REMAINING BELOW 10 MPH THROUGH THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE WILL REACH THIS LOCATION DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY AND
INCREASING TO 10-15 MPH. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
RAINFALL CHANCES WILL DECREASE BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WITH WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE DURING THE PREDAWN AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS ON
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED DISPERSION VALUES. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
TUESDAY. STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM THE MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL POSSIBLE WITHIN STRONGER ACTIVITY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATE IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 90.
MIN HUMIDITY........47 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING SOUTH 6 TO 8 MPH LATE
                    IN THE MORNING. WINDS SHIFTING TO SOUTHEAST AND
                    INCREASING TO 10-15 MPH DURING THE LATE
                    AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1400...THEN 2 UNTIL 1700...THEN 3.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL AT IGNITION...INCREASING TO
                    5700 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 0 TO 6 MPH...SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST 10
                    TO 16 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.
DISPERSION INDEX....40 AT IGNITION...INCREASING TO 60 IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............1.

TIME (EDT)      10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........52     53     55     56
WEATHER COV.....              ISOLTD SCTTRD
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........              ISOLTD SCTTRD
TEMP............81     87     90     90
RH..............69     55     47     47
20 FT WIND......S 3    S 6    S 7    SE 10
20 FT WIND GUST.5      10     10     15
DISPERSION IDX..35     55     60     60
LVORI...........3      1      1      1
CHC OF PCPN (%).10     10     20     30

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 70.
MAX HUMIDITY........97 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. GUSTY
                    AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
LAL.................3 UNTIL 2100...THEN 2 UNTIL 0300...THEN 1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4100 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL
                    OVERNIGHT.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 2 TO 8 MPH.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.
DISPERSION INDEX....45 EARLY IN THE EVENING...DECREASING TO 3
                    OVERNIGHT.
LVORI...............7.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........57     63     67     68     68     66
WEATHER COV.....SCTTRD CHANCE S CHC  S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE
TSTM COV........SCTTRD CHANCE S CHC  S CHC
TEMP............87     82     78     75     73     71
RH..............53     65     74     82     87     90
20 FT WIND......SE 10  SE 6   S 3    S 2    S 2    S 2
20 FT WIND GUST.15     10     5      5      5      5
DISPERSION IDX..45     20     5      3      1      1
LVORI...........2      3      4      5      6      7
CHC OF PCPN (%).30     30     20     20     20     10

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 88.
MIN HUMIDITY........48 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS EARLY...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15
                    MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1400...THEN 3.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL EARLY...INCREASING TO 5500 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 1 TO 9 MPH...INCREASING TO WEST 17 TO
                    24 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.
DISPERSION INDEX....1 EARLY...INCREASING TO 90 IN THE AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............1.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........64     62     62     69     75     75
WEATHER COV.....                            CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........                            CHANCE CHANCE
TEMP............70     72     81     85     88     88
RH..............97     90     67     59     50     48
20 FT WIND......S 2    SW 3   SW 7   SW 9   W 10   W 15
20 FT WIND GUST.5      5      10     15     15     20
DISPERSION IDX..1      3      45     70     90     85
LVORI...........9      6      3      1      1      1
CHC OF PCPN (%).10     10     10     10     50     50

$$
FORECASTER...NELSON
REQUESTED BY...JASON DEPUE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20160502.DCC5C.01/JAX



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.