Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FNUS74 KLZK 220928
FWSLZK

Spot Forecast for 515 Regens...USFS
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
328 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0600 CST on November 22.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service Immediately.

.DISCUSSION...

A new dry air mass is moving into the state for this Wed...with
the moderate to high wild fire danger continuing. Winds should
remain well below red flag criteria for at least the next 12 to 48
hrs.


.TODAY...

Temperature.........34 at ignition...Max 51.
RH..................66 percent at ignition...Min 30 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Transport winds.....Northwest 6 to 9 mph.
Stability class.....C.
20 Foot Winds.......Winds north at 5 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    North winds around 5 mph.
LVORI...............1 early in the morning.
Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-5 percent).
Dispersion..........12.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 4.
Eye level winds.....North winds around 5 mph.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 2800 ft AGL.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 3939 ft MSL.

TIME (CST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............34  33  35  37  40  43  46  47  48  49  47  44
RH..............66  66  61  54  47  40  35  33  32  30  33  38
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.
Eye lvl wnd dir.N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
Eye lvl wnd spd.3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
Eye lvl wnd gst.
Transp wind dir.N   N   NE  NE  NE  N   N   N   N   N   N   NW
Transp wind spd.9   9   9   9   8   8   7   7   7   7   6   6
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0

.TONIGHT...

Temperature.........Min 32.
RH..................Max 64 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Transport winds.....Southwest 2 to 5 mph.
Stability class.....D.
20 Foot Winds.......Light winds.
LVORI...............1.
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
Dispersion..........2 early in the evening.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.
Eye level winds.....Light winds.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 700 ft AGL.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 1849 ft MSL.

TIME (CST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky cover.......MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............42  41  39  37  36  36  35  35  34  34  34  34
RH..............43  46  52  59  61  61  64  64  64  64  64  64
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..2   2   2   2   2   2   1   1   1   1   1   1
20 FT wind gust.5   5   5   5   5   5
Eye lvl wnd dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   S   S   S   S   S   S
Eye lvl wnd spd.1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Eye lvl wnd gst.5   5   5   5   5   5
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  W   W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.5   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0

.THANKSGIVING DAY...

Temperature.........Max 59.
RH..................Min 32 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Transport winds.....Southwest 2 to 8 mph.
Stability class.....C.
20 Foot Winds.......Light winds.
LVORI...............1 early in the morning.
Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Dispersion..........5 increasing to 14 late in the morning, then
                    decreasing to 5 late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.
Eye level winds.....Light winds.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 2600 ft AGL.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 3776 ft MSL.

TIME (CST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............34  37  40  43  47  51  55  56  58  59  57  55
RH..............64  59  55  51  43  39  35  34  33  32  37  41
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..2   2   2   2   2   2   3   3   3   3   3   3
20 FT wind gust.5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Eye lvl wnd dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W
Eye lvl wnd spd.2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
Eye lvl wnd gst.5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   SW
Transp wind spd.2   2   3   5   6   7   8   8   8   7   6   3
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0

$$
Forecaster...W Gilmore
Requested by...Tim Nutley
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1719061.1/LZK
.EMAIL tnutley@fs.fed.us


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