Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Medford, OR

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000
FNUS76 KMFR 070646
FWSMFR

SPOT FORECAST FOR GOOSENEST EASTSIDE PILES...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1046 PM PST TUE DEC 6 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0700 PST ON DECEMBER 07.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE
BURN SITE EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE DAY WILL START WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES.
THEN WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THE BURN SITE
IS SHELTERED SOME BY HIGH TERRAIN TO THE SOUTH SO WE DON`T EXPECT THE
STRONGEST WINDS TO SURFACE AT THE BURN SITE ON WEDNESDAY...AND GIVEN
THE RELATIVELY LIGHT GENERAL WINDS ON WEDNESDAY...CONFIDENCE IN DIRECTION
IS ONLY MODERATE. SOME VERY DRY AIR ALOFT IS EXPECTED EARLY WEDNESDAY...SO THE
BURN SITE WILL SEE BELOW NORMAL HUMIDITY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY. SNOW ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION WILL EVENTUALLY
CHANGE TO RAIN LATE THURSDAY MORNING OR AFTERNOON AS WARMER
AIR ARRIVES. STABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL
BE MODERATE TO STRONG FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. WE HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION FOR THOSE TIME
PERIODS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH
                    SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 31.
MIN HUMIDITY........50 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHEAST WINDS 1 TO 3 MPH IN THE MORNING INCREASING
                    TO 3 TO 5 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH IN THE MORNING INCREASING
                    TO 8 TO 12 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL EARLY INCREASING TO 2000 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........WINDY. SNOW IN THE EVENING...THEN SNOW LIKELY AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 24.
MAX HUMIDITY........95 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 12 MPH EARLY
                    INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST 6 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 16
                    MPH LATE.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH
                    EARLY INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST 18 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS
                    TO 35 MPH LATE.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 20 MPH.
CWR.................80 PERCENT.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........WINDY. RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN
                    LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 37.
MIN HUMIDITY........67 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 15 MPH.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500-1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 35 MPH.
CWR.................30 PERCENT.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.FRIDAY...
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 11 TO 14 MPH.
.SATURDAY...
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 30S. WEST WINDS 6 TO 9 MPH.
.SUNDAY...
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. LIGHT WINDS.

.OUTLOOK FOR WEDNESDAY DECEMBER 14 THROUGH TUESDAY DECEMBER 20...

FOR OREGON...INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
        AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
FOR NRN CALIF...INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
        AND NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
=
$$
FORECASTER...KEENE
REQUESTED BY...JOSEPH SPIVEY
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1603980.0/MFR



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