Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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000
FNUS74 KMOB 231516
FWSMOB

Spot Forecast for Turkey Fork Campground...USFS
National Weather Service Mobile AL
916 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CST on February 23.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...A warm and moist southerly to southeasterly wind flow
will continue through the weekend. Rain chances on the increase
today, with a continued chance on Saturday. Dispersions today
will be mainly fair, with generally good dispersions Saturday

Fog potential and other remarks...Patchy dense fog reforms late tonight.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 1200, then 9-15 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 81.
Min humidity........54 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 6 to 8 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......1900-3400 ft AGL.
Mixing height (m)...579-1036 meters AGL.
Transport winds.....South 8 to 13 mph.
Transport winds m/s.South 4 to 6 meters/second.
Dispersion index....23 increasing to 32 in the afternoon.
LVORI...............2.
Stability class.....3.

TIME (CST)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........72  78  83  79  74  69  65  62
Weather cov.....        CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........        CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  50  50  50  50  50  50
LAL.............1   1   3   3   3   3   3   3
Temp............74  77  79  81  81  80  78  76
RH..............66  62  58  54  54  56  60  64
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..6   6   6   6   7   7   7   7
20 FT wind gust.7   7   8   8   10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...1.9 2.4 2.9 3.1 3.2 3.4 3.4 3.4
Mix hgt (km)....0.6 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Transp wind dir.SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.8   9   10  12  13  13  12  10
Trans wind dir..SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Trans spd (m/s).4   4   4   5   6   6   5   4
Dispersion idx..19  23  27  30  33  34  32  30
LVORI...........3   2   2   1   1   1   1   2

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of
                    thunderstorms early in the evening. Chance of
                    showers through the night. Patchy fog after
                    midnight.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................9-15 strikes until 2000, then No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 63.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 8 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    evening.
Mixing height.......900-1600 ft AGL.
Mixing height (m)...274-488 meters AGL.
Transport winds.....South 10 to 14 mph.
Transport winds m/s.South 4 to 6 meters/second.
Dispersion index....9.
LVORI...............6.
Stability class.....4.

TIME (CST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........58  57  55  54  61  69  76  81  86  90  90  90
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........CHC CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).30  30  30  30  30  30  30  30  30  30  30  30
LAL.............3   3   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............74  72  70  68  67  65  64  64  64  64  64  63
RH..............69  73  81  87  90  97  100 100 97  97  100 100
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..7   7   6   6   6   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.10  10  8   8   7   6   6   6   6   6   6   6
Mix hgt (kft)...1.6 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9
Mix hgt (km)....0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.10  12  13  14  14  13  13  13  14  14  14  13
Trans wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Trans spd (m/s).4   5   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6
Dispersion idx..9   8   9   9   9   9   8   8   9   9   8   8
LVORI...........3   4   4   5   6   7   8   8   8   8   8   8

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Patchy fog early
                    in the morning. Chance of showers through the
                    day.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 83.
Min humidity........57 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 14 mph increasing to 12 to 15
                    mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......900-2400 ft AGL increasing to 3000-3800 ft AGL
                    late in the morning.
Mixing height (m)...274-732 meters AGL increasing to 914-1158
                    meters AGL late in the morning.
Transport winds.....South 13 to 22 mph increasing to 21 to 23 mph
                    early in the afternoon.
Transport winds m/s.South 6 to 10 meters/second increasing to 9 to
                    10 meters/second early in the afternoon.
Dispersion index....19 increasing to 58.
LVORI...............3.
Stability class.....3.

TIME (CST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........90  88  84  82  80  76  74  74  73  73  72  71
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).40  40  40  40  40  40  30  30  30  30  30  30
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............63  65  67  71  75  79  82  83  83  82  81  80
RH..............100 100 97  84  74  64  58  57  57  59  62  64
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..5   6   6   7   9   11  13  14  14  13  12  10
20 FT wind gust.6   7   8   10  12  14  17  18  18  17  16  13
Mix hgt (kft)...0.9 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.4 3.0 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.8
Mix hgt (km)....0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.13  14  15  16  17  20  21  22  23  23  22  21
Trans wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Trans spd (m/s).6   6   7   7   8   9   9   10  10  10  10  9
Dispersion idx..14  18  23  30  38  46  54  57  60  61  58  54
LVORI...........5   5   5   4   3   1   1   1   1   1   1   1

$$
Forecaster...13
Requested by...Rodney Landrum
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1802438.0/MOB
.EMAIL rjlandrum@fs.fed.us



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