Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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000
FNUS75 KRIW 311606
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR SHOVEL FIRE...BIA WIND RIVER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1006 AM MDT WED AUG 31 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0934 MDT ON AUGUST 31.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
VERY ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS OUTSIDE OF STORMS WILL
GENERALLY BE UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY ACROSS THE AREA. A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY ALONG
WITH A LITTLE HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY. THE CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN IS
STILL RATHER LOW BUT THERE WILL BE A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND WIDELY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AROUND. GUSTY WIND WILL BE A THREAT
WITH THESE STORMS AGAIN THURSDAY.


...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...SKRBAC

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING PARTLY
                    CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....66-69.
MIN HUMIDITY........19-22 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1500...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 10200 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 8 TO 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST 12 TO
                    17 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (32000 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT
                    (155000 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
                    ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 50.
MAX HUMIDITY........43-46 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST
                    8 TO 13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH IN THE
                    LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND
                    OVERNIGHT.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 2100...THEN 1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4600 FT AGL IN THE EVENING THEN 500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST 15 TO 22 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND
                    OVERNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (55000 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR (8000
                    KNOT-FT) AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN
                    SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....63-66.
MIN HUMIDITY........27-30 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 14 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
                    25 MPH UNTIL MID MORNING...THEN BRIEFLY
                    UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHWEST                   SOUTHWEST AROUND 11 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS LATE
                    IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 3.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.14 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 10000 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 17 TO 23 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (54700 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT
                    (200000 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...
PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
EVENING...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN
THE UPPER 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 13 MPH.
.FRIDAY...
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 16 MPH.
.SATURDAY...
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND
13 MPH.
.SUNDAY...
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS...SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S.
WEST WINDS AROUND 12 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...SKRBAC
REQUESTED BY...JUAN EDER
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20160831.SHOVE.01/RIW



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