Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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FNUS71 KRNK 181340
FWSRNK

SPOT FORECAST FOR BIG WILSON...THE NATURE CONSERVANCY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
940 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1030 EDT ON APRIL 18.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH WINDS TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY
BUT REMAINING LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON. 20 FOOT SPEEDS OF 3 TO 8 MPH CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 10 MPH ON THE RIDGELINE.
HUMIDITY WILL BE SLOW TO DECREASE THIS MORNING DUE TO LIGHT MIXING
AND CLOUD COVER WITH LEVELS NOT FALLING BELOW 50 PERCENT UNTIL AROUND
MIDDAY WITH MINIMUMS OF 35-40 PERCENT POSSIBLE TOWARD MID OR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHTS SHOULD ALSO REMAIN LOW AND LIKELY
NOT REACH ABOVE 1000 FEET UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON PENDING THE DEGREE
OF CLOUD COVER WHICH WOULD TEND TO HOLD THESE LEVELS LOWER THROUGH
THE MORNING. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL TURN MORE NORTHEAST ESPECIALLY
AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING AND THEN MORE EASTERLY ON SATURDAY.


.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 56.
MIN HUMIDITY........39 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 8 MPH EARLY THIS MORNING
                    ...BECOMING SOUTH 6 TO 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR (0.01 IN).......0 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......900 FT AGL EARLY INCREASING TO 1500 FT AGL
                    THIS AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL
                    FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
SKY (%).............63     84     97     91
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV............
TEMP................44     51     53     55
RH..................61     48     39     39
20 FT WIND..........W 5    SW 7   S 7    S 5
20 FT WIND GUST.....10     10     10     10
MIX HGT (FT)........900    1100   1500   1200
TRANSPORT WIND......W 7    SW 5   SW 6   W 10
LVORI...............3      2      2      2
ADI.................7      5      7      12
CWR.................0      0      0      0
HAINES INDEX........5      4      3      3

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 43.
MAX HUMIDITY........77 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE...THEN
                    BECOMING NORTHEAST 5 TO 6 MPH THIS EVENING.
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 1 TO 9 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR
                    LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).............85     67     100    100    100    88
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV............
TEMP................54     51     49     47     46     45
RH..................42     49     54     58     61     63
20 FT WIND..........S 4    S 3    SE 2   NE 2   NE 2   N 4
20 FT WIND GUST.....10     10     5      5      5      10
MIX HGT (FT)........700    300    300    300    300    300
TRANSPORT WIND......W 9    S 5    SW 2   W 2    NW 3   N 6
LVORI...............2      2      2      3      3      3
ADI.................10     3      1      1      2      4
CWR.................0      10     10     10     10     10
HAINES INDEX........3      4      4      4      4      4

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 57.
MIN HUMIDITY........49 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 6 TO 9 MPH.

TIME (EDT)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).............70     50     45     40     40     39
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV............
TEMP................44     44     48     51     54     56
RH..................69     77     66     59     55     51
20 FT WIND..........NE 5   NE 5   NE 6   NE 7   E 7    E 6
20 FT WIND GUST.....15     10     15     15     15     15

$$
FORECASTER...HUDGINS
REQUESTED BY...SAM LINDBLOM
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140418.BIGWI.01/RNK



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