Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000
FNUS71 KRNK 151222
FWSRNK

SPOT FORECAST FOR YADKIN RIVER RX...NC STATE PARKS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
722 AM EST MON DEC 15 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1300 EST ON DECEMBER 15.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

...POOR MIXING TODAY...

HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVERHEAD THIS MORNING...AND IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS EAST AND OFF THE COAST BY TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY WITH AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS.

IN SPITE OF THE FULL SUN TODAY...WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT.  THERE
IS ALSO A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT WHICH WILL NOT ALLOW
FOR GOOD VENTILATION TODAY.  BETTER VENTILATION IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY...BUT THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUD COVER...HIGHER HUMIDITY...
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS.  SEE THE REMARKS SECTION OF THE FORECAST
FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (LESS THAN 10 PERCENT CLOUD COVER).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 63.
MIN HUMIDITY........32 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
CWR (0.01 IN).......0 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2200 FT AGL IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 2 TO 6 MPH.

TIME (EST)          1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
SKY (%).............6      10     17
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV............
TEMP................54     59     58
RH..................39     34     37
20 FT WIND..........SE 2   SE 2   S 2
20 FT WIND GUST.....5      5
MIX HGT (FT)........1500   1900   2200
TRANSPORT WIND......S 6    S 7    S 8
LVORI...............2      2      2
ADI.................19     22     25
CWR.................0      0      0

REMARKS...DO NOT FORSEE VENTILLATION GETTING OVER 20,000 TODAY.
EVEN IF WE MANAGED TO MIX TO 3000 FEET THE VENTILATION IS STILL
WELL BELOW YOUR THRESHOLD DUE TO THE EXTREMELY LIGHT WIND
FORECAST.


.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS LATE.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 37.
MAX HUMIDITY........85 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT...INCREASING TO 40 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 TO 12 MPH.

TIME (EST)          6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).............21     29     36     45     56     68
WEATHER COV.........                                   CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR
TSTM COV............
TEMP................55     51     48     45     43     40
RH..................42     50     56     62     70     76
20 FT WIND..........SE 1   S 1    S 1    S 2    S 2    S 2
20 FT WIND GUST.....                     5      5      5
MIX HGT (FT)........2200   1800   1400   1000   600    300
TRANSPORT WIND......S 8    S 10   SW 12  SW 10  SW 8   SW 6
LVORI...............2      2      3      3      3      4
ADI.................4      5      5      4      4      3
CWR.................0      0      10     0      10     30


.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY IN THE MORNING (85-95 PERCENT SHADING)...
                    THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON
                    (50-60 PERCENT SHADING). A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    IN THE MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 55.
MIN HUMIDITY........63 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING WEST 5 TO 6
                    MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
CWR (0.01 IN).......40 PERCENT IN THE MORNING...DECREASING
                    TO 10 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5 TO 14 MPH.

TIME (EST)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).............82     95     78     61     58     48
WEATHER COV.........CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV............
TEMP................37     41     47     50     53     53
RH..................85     80     73     73     66     67
20 FT WIND..........S 2    S 2    S 4    SW 5   SW 5   W 4
20 FT WIND GUST.....5      5      10     10     15     10
MIX HGT (FT)........300    500    1100   1600   1800   2200
TRANSPORT WIND......S 5    SW 8   SW 14  SW 14  SW 13  W 9
LVORI...............5      4      3      3      3      3
ADI.................5      7      18     24     22     21
CWR.................40     40     15     10     10     0

REMARKS...BETTER VENTILATION IS LIKELY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
TUESDAY...BUT THE RH WILL BE HIGHER IN ADDITION TO POTENTIAL
WETTING FROM SHOWERS EARLY IN THE DAY.

$$
FORECASTER...MANUEL
REQUESTED BY...MATT WINDSOR
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20141215.YADKI.02/RNK


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