Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000
FNUS71 KRNK 251945
FWSRNK

SPOT FORECAST FOR WYRICK TRAIL FIRE...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
345 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1535 EDT ON MARCH 25.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

A WEDGE OF COOL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS WARMER AND MOISTER AIR ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH SPREADS NORTH BACK INTO THE REGION.

LITTLE OR NO MEASURABLE RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THE TRANSITION TO MILDER
WEATHER UNTIL A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST
LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE AND
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT.

MUCH COLDER WEATHER WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). A
                    CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 50.
MAX HUMIDITY........96 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 7 MPH.
CWR (0.01 IN).......20 PERCENT...INCREASING TO 30 PERCENT...THEN
                    DECREASING TO 10 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 17 TO 26 MPH...INCREASING TO 22 TO 28 MPH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 7 MPH.

TIME (EDT)          6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).............52     46     48     52     54     54
WEATHER COV.........S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE........RAIN   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV............
TEMP................59     56     55     54     53     52
RH..................65     72     75     78     81     84
20 FT WIND..........S 5    S 6    S 5    S 5    S 5    S 5
20 FT WIND GUST.....10     15     15     10     10     15
EYE LEVEL WIND......S 4    S 4    S 4    S 4    S 4    S 4
EYE LVL WND GST.....10     15     15     10     10     15
MIX HGT (FT)........1800   1000   900    900    900    900
TRANSPORT WIND......SW 21  S 17   S 22   S 26   S 26   S 24
CWR.................20     20     20     20     30     30

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE
                    OF SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING. A SLIGHT
                    CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE. A CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS LATE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 67.
MIN HUMIDITY........51 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 9 TO 14 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS LATE.
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT...INCREASING TO 40 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2600 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 4800 FT AGL LATE IN
                    THE MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 20 TO 26 MPH...INCREASING TO 30 TO 35
                    MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....WEST WINDS 9 TO 14 MPH.

TIME (EDT)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).............55     55     56     60     62     66
WEATHER COV.........       S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV............                                   S CHC
TEMP................51     50     56     60     64     66
RH..................91     96     77     66     59     53
20 FT WIND..........S 6    S 6    SW 9   SW 10  SW 11  W 10
20 FT WIND GUST.....15     15     20     25     25     25
EYE LEVEL WIND......S 4    S 5    SW 7   SW 8   SW 8   W 8
EYE LVL WND GST.....15     15     20     25     25     25
MIX HGT (FT)........900    800    2600   3800   4600   4700
TRANSPORT WIND......S 21   SW 20  SW 26  SW 32  SW 33  SW 33
CWR.................10     20     20     20     20     40

.THURSDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 35.
MAX HUMIDITY........78 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH
                    EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN 20 MPH AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
                    IN THE EVENING.
CWR (0.01 IN).......50 PERCENT...INCREASING TO 60 PERCENT IN THE
                    EVENING...THEN DECREASING TO 50 PERCENT IN THE
                    EVENING...INCREASING TO 60 PERCENT IN THE
                    EVENING...INCREASING TO 70 PERCENT...INCREASING
                    TO 80 PERCENT...DECREASING TO 70
                    PERCENT...DECREASING TO 60 PERCENT...DECREASING
                    TO 50 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 22 TO 30 MPH...BECOMING NORTH AROUND
                    22 MPH LATE.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....NORTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH.

TIME (EDT)          6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).............80     91     96     99     100    91
WEATHER COV.........CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY DEFNTE LIKELY LIKELY
WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV............CHANCE S CHC
TEMP................63     55     50     46     42     40
RH..................55     67     70     73     76     76
20 FT WIND..........W 10   W 7    W 6    NW 6   NW 7   NW 7
20 FT WIND GUST.....25     20     15     20     20     20
EYE LEVEL WIND......W 7    W 5    W 4    NW 5   NW 5   NW 5
EYE LVL WND GST.....25     20     15     20     20     20
MIX HGT (FT)........3900   2100   2500   2800   2900   2700
TRANSPORT WIND......W 29   NW 22  NW 24  NW 30  NW 32  N 25
CWR.................50     50     70     80     70     60

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 39.
MIN HUMIDITY........53 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 9 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
                    MPH.
CWR (0.01 IN).......40 PERCENT...DECREASING TO 30 PERCENT IN THE
                    MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 40 PERCENT IN THE
                    MORNING...INCREASING TO 50 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 12 TO 21 MPH.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....NORTHWEST WINDS 9 TO 10 MPH.

TIME (EDT)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).............80     71     70     73     76     80
WEATHER COV.........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV............
TEMP................38     36     36     38     39     38
RH..................76     78     72     61     54     54
20 FT WIND..........NW 7   NW 7   NW 7   NW 8   NW 8   NW 8
20 FT WIND GUST.....20     20     20     20     20     20
EYE LEVEL WIND......NW 5   NW 5   NW 5   NW 6   NW 6   NW 6
EYE LVL WND GST.....20     20     20     20     20     20
MIX HGT (FT)........2500   2200   2500   2800   3300   3700
TRANSPORT WIND......N 21   N 20   N 17   N 16   N 14   NW 12
CWR.................40     30     30     40     40     40

$$
FORECASTER...WERT
REQUESTED BY...DAVE BOSTIC
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20150325.WYRIC.01/RNK



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