Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FNUS74 KSJT 141518
FWSSJT

Spot Forecast for Colorado Bend SP...Texas Parks & Wildlife Dept
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
918 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CST on December 14.
Please contact our office at 325-944-3030 if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

A weak cold front passed the area overnight, bringing light north winds.
These winds will increase slightly by late morning and continue into the
afternoon, mainly around 10 or 12 mph. However, a few higher gusts above
15 are possible. Cooler conditions expected, leading to afternoon humidities
in the 25 to 30 percent range.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent).
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 64.
Min humidity........27 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light north winds becoming northeast 9 to 15 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......Increasing to 2000-2900 ft AGL in the afternoon.
Mixing winds........North 5 to 8 mph increasing to 10 to 18 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Increasing to good in the afternoon (40100 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low potential for large plume
                   dominated fire growth in the morning increasing
                   to moderate potential for large plume dominated
                   fire growth.

TIME (CST)      10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........11     11     28     35
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
LAL.............1      1      1      1
Temp............51     59     64     63
RH..............46     33     27     27
20 ft wind......N 5    NE 7   NE 9   NE 8
20 ft wind gust.10     10     15     10
Mix hgt (ft)....1400   2100   2900   2300
Mixing wind......N 13   N 15   N 16   N 12
Haines index....5      5      5      3
SDspl kt-ft/100015     28     40     23

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (55-65 percent).
LAL.................No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 36.
Max humidity........79 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 5 to 7 mph until early morning
                    becoming light.
Mixing height.......200-1600 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Northwest 7 to 13 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to poor (1200-9400 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........42     63     70     68     68     63
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............55     50     47     44     42     40
RH..............37     46     51     55     62     67
20 ft wind......N 5    N 6    N 7    N 7    N 6    N 3
20 ft wind gust.10     10     10     10     10     5
Mix hgt (ft)....1600   700    200    200    200    200
Mixing wind......N 7    NE 7   NE 7   N 9    N 12   NW 13
Haines index....3      3      4      5      5      4
SDspl kt-ft/10009      4      1      2      2      2

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 56.
Min humidity........31 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming north 5 to 8 mph, then
                    becoming light late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......200-1900 ft AGL increasing to 2500-4100 ft AGL
                    late in the morning.
Mixing winds........Northwest 3 to 12 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (2000-21800 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CST)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........46        32        18        16
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............38        43        53        56
RH..............70        62        36        31
20 FT wind......N 3G5     N 7G10    N 8G10    N 6G10
Mix hgt (ft)....200       1300      3000      3600
Mixing wind......NW 12     N 3       N 3       NW 7
Haines index....4         3         3         3
SDspl kt-ft/10002         4         9         22

$$
Forecaster...PMCCULLOUGH
Requested by...Jeff sparks
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1719873.1/SJT



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