Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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837
FNUS74 KTSA 221241
FWSTSA

Spot Forecast for PERI Hayfield Complex RX...NPS
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
641 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 CST on February 22.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact NWS Tulsa at (918)832-7838, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
After morning clouds and fog...The fire danger will ramp up
today and continue into tomorrow. South winds return on today
across NE OK, mainly north of I-44, and get stronger and more
widespread on Thursday. The strong winds and favorable fuel
conditions will yield a limited fire danger this afternoon across
portions of NE OK, and an an elevated fire spread potential across
much of eastern OK and northwest AR on Thursday. Conditions on
Thursday will be favorable for the rapid spread of any fires that
get started.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent). Patchy fog early in the
                    morning.
Max temperature.....Around 78.
Min humidity........37 percent.
Dewpoint............51.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 5 to 7 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......300-2100 ft AGL increasing to 2900-3900 ft AGL
                    in the afternoon, then decreasing to 1500 ft
                    AGL late in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 3 to 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1500 knot-ft).
Stability class.....4.
1700FT Avg MIX T(F).65 increasing to 75 in the afternoon.

TIME (CST)      7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........16  16  15  12  10  6   7   7   7   9   11
Weather cov.....PTY PTY PTY
Weather type....FOG FOG FOG
Tstm cov........
Temp............57  58  60  63  67  72  76  78  78  76  73
Dewpoint........53  53  52  52  52  52  51  51  50  50  49
RH..............88  82  75  67  59  49  42  39  37  40  43
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  S   S
20 FT wind spd..6   5   4   4   4   5   6   7   8   7   6
20 FT wind gust.10      5   5   5       10  10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...0.3 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.5 2.1 3.0 3.7 3.9 2.9 1.5
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.5   5   6   7   7   8   9   10  10  10  9
VRate kt-ft/1K..2   2   2   2   2   5   5   5   5   5   5
1700FT Mix T(F).62  62  63  65  69  72  75  77  78  76  72

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 51.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Dewpoint............50.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Mixing height.......0-300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 2 to 8 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (0 knot-ft).
Stability class.....6.
1700FT Avg MIX T(F).70.

TIME (CST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........13  17  21  25  30  36  41  39  37  35  40  44
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............69  65  62  59  57  56  55  54  53  52  52  51
Dewpoint........49  49  50  50  51  51  52  51  51  50  50  51
RH..............49  56  65  72  80  83  90  90  93  93  93  100
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   4   4   4   5
20 FT wind gust.                                5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SE  SE
Transp wind spd.8   7   7   6   6   5   5   5   3   3   3   2
VRate kt-ft/1K..0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
1700FT Mix T(F).69  69  71  72  72  71  71  71  70  70  69  68

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 78.
Min humidity........43 percent.
Dewpoint............52.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 13 mph. Gusts up to 30 mph.
Mixing height.......0-1900 ft AGL increasing to 2000-3600 ft AGL in
                    the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southeast 3 to 10 mph increasing to south 23 to
                    25 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (4800 knot-ft).
Stability class.....4.
1700FT Avg MIX T(F).68 increasing to 76 in the afternoon.

TIME (CST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........49  47  45  44  40  37  33  38  42  47  48  48
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............51  52  55  58  63  68  72  76  78  78  77  75
Dewpoint........51  52  53  54  54  53  53  53  54  54  53  52
RH..............100 100 93  86  72  59  51  45  43  43  43  45
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..6   6   7   8   10  12  14  15  16  16  16  14
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  10  20  25  25  30  30  30  30  25
Mix hgt (kft)...0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.9 2.7 3.3 3.6 3.6 3.0 2.0
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.3   5   7   10  14  18  22  24  25  25  24  23
VRate kt-ft/1K..5   5   5   5   5   5   13  13  13  13  13  13
1700FT Mix T(F).68  66  65  65  67  69  72  75  77  78  77  76

$$
Forecaster...HAAKE
Requested by...Nolan Moore
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1702606.0/TSA
.EMAIL nolan_moore@nps.gov



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