Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS Alaska-Pacific RFC

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HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NWS ALASKA PACIFIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER ANCHORAGE AK
300 PM AKDT THU AUG 25 2016

...FLOOD POTENTIAL...

SEVERAL DAYS OF RAINFALL FOR THE WESTERN SUSITNA RIVER VALLEY...
WHICH INCLUDES THE YENTNA...SKWENTNA AND CHULITNA RIVERS... HAS
RESULTED IN HIGH WATER LEVELS. SOME LOCAL MINOR FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE. REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MORE INFORMATION.

OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAINS OVER THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA THROUGH THE
NORTH GULF INCLUDING PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND HAS CAUSED HIGH WATER
LEVELS ON RIVERS AND STREAMS. WATER LEVELS REMAIN ABOVE ACTION STAGE
FOR THE RESURRECTION RIVER NEAR SEWARD AND THE EYAK RIVER NEAR
CORDOVA HAS ROSE STEADILY OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. NO REPORTS
OF FLOODING HAVE BEEN RECEIVED.

OTHERWISE THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS LOW FOR THE REST OF THE STATE.

...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

AN ELONGATED TROUGH CONTINUES TO STRETCH FROM THE EASTERN BERING
DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC. JUST TO THE EAST OF THIS
FEATURE RESIDES A RIDGE THAT TAKES UP MUCH OF THE NORTHEASTERN
PACIFIC. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS A WELL DEFINED ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER THAT IS BRINGING SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE NORTH GULF
COAST. WITH THE PASSAGE OF RELATIVELY STRONG WAVE OF ENERGY OVER THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE THEN DOWN THROUGH THE PANHANDLE THIS PATTERN BEGINS
TO TRANSITION AND CHANGE THE ORIENTATION OF THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER.
THE FEED OF MOISTURE QUICKLY SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST GULF THEN
DOWN THROUGH THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
ENHANCED RAINFALL PATTERN FOLLOWS THIS ACTION WITH AMOUNTS RANGING
BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF ON DAY ONE AND 1 TO
2 INCH AMOUNTS OVER THE CENTRAL COASTAL MOUNTAINS ON DAY TWO.

IN THE LONGER RANGE...THE LAST WAVE OF ENERGY SLIPS THROUGH
SOUTHCENTRAL THURSDAY NIGHT LEAVING BEHIND THAT A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE THAT SEEMS TO LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND BEGIN TO DRY
THINGS OUT ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND.

...PRECIPITATION...

SELECTED PRECIPITATION TOTALS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS ENDING AT 4 AM
TODAY:

LOCATION NAME                 PE TS   24 HR
======== ====                 == ==   =====
PAWR     WHITTIER             PP RZ :   2.74
MCPA2    MCARTHUR PASS        PP RG :   2.25
GGLA2    GATES GLACIER        PC RG :   2.02
TKVA2    TOKOSITNA VALLEY     PC RM :   2.00
ESIA2    ESTHER ISLAND        PC RM :   2.00
GGLA2    GATES GLACIER        PP RG :   1.99
EYKA2    MT EYAK              PC RM :   1.90
SRFA2    STRAWBERRY REEF      PC R2 :   1.82
PACV     CORDOVA              PP RZ :   1.81
PEDA2    PEDERSEN LAGOON      PP RG :   1.61
SVRA2    SILVER SALMON LAKES  PC RG :   1.32
RUGA2    RUTH GLACIER RAWS    PP RG :   1.27
CBHA2    CORDOVA BOAT HARBOR  PC RP :   1.16
SRYA2    SITUK RIVER NR YAKUT PP RG :   1.10
DBWA2    DRY BAY GLACIER BAY  PP RG :   1.06
CGMA2    CHIGMIT MOUNTAINS    PC RG :   1.03
IMYA2    IMELYAK NPS RAWS     PC RG :   1.01
SUGA2    SUGARLOAF MOUNTAIN   PC RM :   1.00
PSJA2    PORT SAN JUAN        PC R2 :   1.00
PAYA     YAKUTAT              PP RZ :   0.99
UPPA2    UPPER TSAINA SNOTEL  PC RM :   0.90
NUKA2    NUKA GLACIER SNOTEL  PC RM :   0.90
INPA2    INDIAN PASS SNOTEL   PC RM :   0.90
MCKA2    MAY CREEK RAWS       PC RG :   0.86
IMYA2    IMELYAK NPS RAWS     PP RG :   0.86
SNCA2    MAY CREEK            PC RM :   0.80
UPPA2    UPPER TSAINA SNOTEL  PC R2 :   0.77
PATO     PORTAGE GLACIER      PP RZ :   0.76
DCKA2    DAHL CREEK NR KOBUK  PP RG :   0.75
MCNA2    MCNEIL CANYON SNOTEL PC RM :   0.70

...LONG RANGE...

THE 6 TO 10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE ENTIRE STATE... ESPECIALLY
SOUTHWEST.

THE 6 TO 10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTHWEST AS WELL.

PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
HOME PAGE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

....................................................................

THIS TEXT PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED DAILY UNTIL FREEZEUP IN THE FALL. A
GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THE HYDROMET DISCUSSION IS AVAILABLE AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/APRFC/GRAPHICALHMD

$$



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