Ice Forecast
Issued by NWS Anchorage, AK

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FZAK80 PAFC 182347
ICEAFC

SEA ICE ADVISORY FOR WESTERN AND ARCTIC ALASKAN COASTAL WATERS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
245 PM AKST WEDNESDAY 18 JANUARY 2017

FORECAST VALID...MONDAY 23 JANUARY 2017

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...HIGH

SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER EASTERN SIBERIA AS A
MODERATE STRENGTH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS FROM THE SOUTHERN
BERING SEA IN TO BRISTOL BAY...

-ARCTIC OCEAN-
-BEAUFORT SEA-
-CHUKCHI SEA-
PKZ510-EASTERN U.S. ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ505-CENTRAL U.S. ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ500-WESTERN U.S. ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ245-FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
PKZ240-CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
PKZ235-POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
PKZ230-CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
PKZ225-CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
PKZ220-WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
PKZ215-KOTZEBUE SOUND-
PKZ200-NORTON SOUND-

ICE COVERED.

-BERING SEA-

PKZ160-BRISTOL BAY-
PKZ165-PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
PKZ180-KUSKOKWIM DELTA TO ETOLIN STRAIT-
PKZ181-NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
PKZ185-SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
PKZ210-DALL POINT TO WALES-


THE MAIN ICE EDGE IN THE BERING SEA EXTENDS FROM 57.2 158.5W TO 58.4N
162.3W TO 60.0N 167.5W TO 59.6N 168.4W TO 62.8N 171.6W TO 64.0N
174.9W AND CONTINUES INTO RUSSIAN WATERS. THE ICE EDGE IS MAINLY
OPEN WATER.

FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY FOR THE BERING SEA...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL TRACK FROM THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS TODAY...THEN INLAND NEAR CAPE
NEWENHAM BY EARLY FRIDAY. SOUTH OF THIS LINE WINDS WILL PUSH THE ICE
EDGE NORTHWARD WHILE NORTH OF THIS LINE THE ICE WILL EXPAND
WESTWARD. ON FRIDAY NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE ICE EDGE WILL
DRIVE THE ICE EDGE TO THE SOUTH.

EXPECT THE ICE EDGE NORTH OF NUNIVAK ISLAND TO EXPAND GENERALLY TO
THE SOUTHWEST 45 TO 60 NM THROUGH MONDAY WITH STRIPS OF ICE BEING
PULLED OFF THE PACK. FROM NUNIVAK ISLAND OVER TO BRISTOL BAY...THE
ICE EDGE IS EXPECTED TO FIRST RETREAT 10 TO 20 NM TO THE NORTH
THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE EXPANDING TO THE SOUTHWEST 20 TO 30 NM THROUGH
MONDAY.

-COOK INLET-
PKZ130-WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
PKZ139-COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
PKZ140-COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
PKZ141-KACHEMAK BAY-

COOK INLET ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...HIGH

SYNOPSIS FOR COOK INLET...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR WILL
SETUP A NORTHWESTERLY OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE MAIN ICE EDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR 60.4N 151.3W TO 60.2N 152.3W TO
AND CONTINUES DOWN ALONG THE WEST COAST OF LOWER COOK INLET. THE ICE
EDGE IS MAINLY OPEN WATER.

FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY FOR COOK INLET...AIR TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL BELOW FREEZING THROUGH MONDAY. SEA ICE WILL
CONTINUE TO GROW...AND THE ICE EDGE IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND SOUTHWARD
UP TO 15 NM THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE NOTE...COOK INLET ICE CHANGES SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE TIDES.

$$



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