Ice Forecast
Issued by NWS Anchorage, AK

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FZAK80 PAFC 302211
ICEAFC

SEA ICE ADVISORY FOR WESTERN AND ARCTIC ALASKAN COASTAL WATERS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
215 PM AKDT FRIDAY 30 SEPTEMBER 2016

FORECAST VALID...WEDNESDAY 5 OCTOBER 2016

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...HIGH TO MODERATE

SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA WILL SHIFT
EAST BY SUNDAY. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN SIBERIA
WILL PERSIST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... BRINGING A WEATHER FRONT
ACROSS THE CHUKCHI SEA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. AN ARCTIC HIGH
WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN BEAUFORT SEA LATE SUNDAY... SPREADING
ACROSS THE BEAUFORT SEA AND EASTERN CHUKCHI SEA BY WEDNESDAY.

-ARCTIC OCEAN-
-BEAUFORT SEA-
-CHUKCHI SEA-
PKZ230-CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
PKZ235-POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
PKZ240-CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
PKZ500-WESTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ505-CENTRAL US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ510-EASTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-

THE MAIN ICE EDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR 74.8N 135W TO 74.2N 161.7W TO
72.6N 156.3W TO 71.8N 159.2W TO 72.8N 161.8W TO 72.9N 166.4W TO
71.8N 171.9W AND CONTINUES IN RUSSIAN WATERS. THE ICE EDGE IS MAINLY
OPEN WATER CONSISTING OF NEW SEA ICE THAT IS FORMING OVERNIGHT OR
DURING PERIODS OF LIGHT WINDS. IN ADDITION AN ISOLATED AREA OF BRASH
SEA ICE REMAINS JUST NORTH OF THE NAVIGATIONAL WATERS FROM OFFSHORE
SMITH BAY TO OFFSHORE OLIKTOK POINT. THE NAVIGATIONAL WATERS ARE
MAINLY SEA ICE FREE TO OPEN WATER.

FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA...OVER THE REMAINING
SEA ICE PACK WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH MONDAY. LIGHTER
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE REMAINING OFFSHORE ICE IS EXPECTED TO
CONSOLIDATE ALONG THE EDGE AND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST 15 TO 30 NM
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NEAR SHORE NAVIGATIONAL WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SEA ICE FREE.

FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA...OVER THE REMAINING
BELT OF BRASH SEA ICE FLOATING JUST NORTH OF THE NAVIGATIONAL WATERS
FROM OFFSHORE SMITH BAY TO OFFSHORE OLIKTOK POINT WE EXPECT EASTERLY
WINDS TO SPREAD THE BRASH SEA ICE TO THE WEST UP TO 20 NM THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. NEAR SHORE NAVIGATIONAL WATERS SHOULD REMAIN SEA ICE FREE
TO OPEN WATER... BUT LOCAL EDDIES IN THE CURRENTS COULD BRING
ISOLATED STRIPS OF BRASH SEA ICE NEAR THE NAVIGATIONAL WATERS IN
THIS VICINITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NEW SEA ICE MAY TEMPORARILY FORM IN
OVERNIGHT HOURS NEAR FRESHWATER RIVER DELTAS OF THE NORTH SLOPE OF
ALASKA.

$$


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