Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
000
AGXX40 KNHC 010519
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
119 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AN E-W RIDGE EXTENDS TAMPA BAY TO THE NE TX COAST WITH A
SURFACE HIGH EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGE OVER THE E-
CENTRAL GULF WATERS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOONS AND INTO THE
EARLY EVENINGS AS AFTERNOON HEAT TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE FL
PENINSULA AND TEMPORARILY SEPARATES THE GULF RIDGE SEGMENT FROM
THE ATLC RIDGE. LIGHT-GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS EXPECTED WITHIN
150 NM OF THE RIDGE AXIS WITH MODERATE E-SE WINDS EXPECTED
FURTHER OUTWARD AROUND THE S AND SW PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND
SW-W 10-15 KT WINDS EXPECTED N OF THE RIDGE OVER THE FAR NE
WATERS. THE EXCEPTION CONTINUES TO BE THE THERMAL TROUGH 20-25
KT ENHANCEMENT DEVELOPING ALONG THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA EACH EVENING THAT WILL MOVE WNW AS AN INVERTED TROUGH
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS...AND DISSIPATE
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY EXPECT AN E-SE 20-25 KT WIND SHIFT
WITHIN 1BOUT 120 NM OF THE TROUGH. AN UPPER CYCLONE HAS MOVED NE
TO NEAR 26N84W WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER ITS E SEMICIRCLE
PROVIDING FAVORABLE UPPER SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL
FL. MEANWHILE A UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF HAS
SET UP AN AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE SUPPORTING CONVECTION OVER
THE NW GULF. THIS AREA WILL BE DENOTED IN WEATHER GRIDS FOR
TODAY. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MEANDER THROUGH THU...THEN SHIFT
FURTHER N TO A POSITION FROM CEDAR KEY FL TO THE MS DELTA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

ATLC RIDGE N OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NW
COLOMBIA WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. A NOCTURNAL PULSE TO MINIMAL GALE
FORCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS
THIS MORNING ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA. ANOTHER PULSE TO
MINIMAL GALE FORCE IS EXPECTED ON THU NIGHT AND AGAIN ON FRI
NIGHT. THE NOCTURNAL INCREASE OF TRADES TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF OF HONDURAS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AGAIN ON THU...FRI
AND SAT NIGHTS.

A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE W INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
TONIGHT...AND PASS THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS ON THU. A SECOND
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WILL PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN TONIGHT...AND THROUGH THE W CARIBBEAN ON THU AND FRI.
A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY S OF 15N ALONG 30W WILL REACH
ALONG 55W ON SAT.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL. TAFB NWPS USED FOR SEAS HEIGHTS AND PRIMARY
WAVE PERIOD. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE WILL MEANDER FROM 30N65W TO CAPE CANAVERAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY FLOW N OF THE RIDGE WILL PULSE TO 15-20 KT
AS WEAK TROUGHS MOVE OFF THE SE GA COAST...BUT IMMEDIATELY STALL
AND WASH OUT OVER THE WATERS JUST OFFSHORE NE FL/SE GA. MODERATE
E-SE TRADES ARE OBSERVED S OF THE RIDGE...EXCEPT INCREASING TO
20-25 KT ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND THE ATLC APPROACH
TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOONS INTO EARLY
EVENINGS.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN...
     GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY.
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.