Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
000
AGXX40 KNHC 271717
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1217 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 23N96W AT 1023 MB CONTROLS THE WESTERN
GULF AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE INFLUENCE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
WITH MAINLY MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL FRESH NW TO N WINDS E OF 90W.
SEAS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE E OF 90W AND ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. W OF
90W...MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE OCCURRING
ALONG WITH 2-4 FT SEAS BETWEEN 90W AND 94W...AND 1-3 FT SEAS W
OF 94W.

OVERALL THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS SLOWLY E-NE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS BY
BY WED INTO WED NIGHT. THEREAFTER...THE HIGH WILL MERGE WITH
HIGH PRES OVER THE SE UNITED STATES AND TAKE CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER REGIME ACROSS THE BASIN WITH MODERATE RETURN FLOW
DOMINATING THE WATERS BY THU MORNING ALONG WITH 3-5 FT SEAS IN
THE SE GULF AND 1-3 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
LINGER THROUGH MIDNIGHT THU.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE NORTHERN GULF LATE THU
NIGHT AND WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE ALONG 27N THROUGH FRI. HIGH
PRES BECOMES ESTABLISHED YET AGAIN ACROSS THE SE CONUS WITH
FRESH RETURN FLOW DOMINATING THE GULF WATERS SAT INCREASING TO
FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS SAT NIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MAY
APPROACH THE TEXAS COAST BY SUN.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MEDIUM-HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

A DISSIPATING AND RELATIVELY DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS
FROM EASTERN CUBA TO COASTAL HONDURAS ALONG 16N. ISOLATED LOW-
TOPPED SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY...AND
ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND NORTHERN NICARAGUA. IN
ADDITION...CONVERGING NORTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE SW
CARIBBEAN W OF 79W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING S-SW TOWARDS
COASTAL WESTERN PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. TO THE EAST OF THIS
AREA...A RECENT ASCAT PASS INDICATED FRESH N TO NE WINDS
OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. WINDS OFF OF
COLOMBIA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WED INTO THU EXPANDING IN
AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH SAT NIGHT. PEAK WINDS AT THIS TIME REMAIN
NEAR 30 KT DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS...HOWEVER THE DETERMINISTIC GFS EVEN HINTS AT MINIMAL GALE
FORCE WINDS BETWEEN 06-12 UTC ON SUN NIGHT WHICH WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED.

TIGHT RIDGING IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS INTERIOR CENTRAL AMERICA THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WHICH WILL PROVIDE A STRENGTHENED PRES GRADIENT IN
THE W CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU. THIS GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT
FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. SEAS AT
THE LARGEST AREAL EXTENT OF WIND ARE FORECAST TO 9 FT. THE PRES
GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN THU INTO THU NIGHT ALLOWING FOR
DIMINISHING AND SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NE BY FRI MORNING.

FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP NEAR AND DOWNWIND OF THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE AND IN THE LEE OF EASTERN CUBA BY LATE WED
NIGHT...DIMINISHING BY LATE THU NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E-SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. SEAS OF 4-7 FT WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH THE WEEK...EXCEPT BRIEFLY
BUILDING TO 8 FT IN THE NE PORTION WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT
AS SOME NW SWELL PROPAGATES INTO THE AREA.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS...THE EASTERN FRONT CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE AND EXTENDS
FROM 31N62W TO JUST EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS NEAR
21N72W...AND THE WESTERN FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N65W TO EASTERN
CUBA NEAR 21N76W. CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 120 NM EAST OF THE
EASTERN-MOST FRONT. RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES CAPTURED A LARGE
SWATH OF GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 28N BETWEEN 68W AND 78W...WITH AN
AREA OF S-SW STRONG TO OCCASIONAL NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 24N
E OF THE WESTERN FRONT TO 55W. SEAS HAVE PEAKED AROUND 20-22 FT
IN THE VICINITY OF 31N71W THIS MORNING AND WILL TRANSLATE
EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT AND QUICKLY SUBSIDE TO AROUND 12-14 FT
ACROSS ZONE AMZ115 BY WED.

GALE FORCE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY TONIGHT AS THE
FRONTS MERGE AND PUSH E OF 65W. ANOTHER REINFORCING FRONT OR
TROUGH IS ALREADY MOVING IN BEHIND THE FIRST TWO FRONTS AND WILL
REACH FROM 31N72W TO CAPE CANAVERAL LATE TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH
EXPECT ONLY STRONG NW-N WINDS BEHIND IT BY THEN ALONG WITH 8-12
FT SEAS.

CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE THROUGH LATE WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS OVER THE SE UNITED STATES WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THAT HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE SE
REACHING 30N75W BY THU EVENING...THEN WILL WEAKEN AS THE NEXT
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW.

THAT FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N74W TO MELBOURNE FLORIDA BY FRI
AFTERNOON...QUICKLY RACING EASTWARD AND EXTENDING FROM 30N65W TO
28N77W LATE FRI NIGHT WITH FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
BEHIND IT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 8-11 FT. THE FRONT WILL THEN
WEAKEN AS IT LIES ALONG 27N BY SAT AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING BEHIND IT...HOWEVER FRESH NORTHERLY SWELLS OF 8-11
FT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS N OF 27N THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W...
     GALE WARNING TODAY.
.AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W...
     GALE WARNING TODAY.
.AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W...
     GALE WARNING TODAY.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER HUFFMAN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.