Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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052
AGXX40 KNHC 060801
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
301 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR
WAVE HEIGHTS BLENDED 00Z MWW3 AND A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF TAFB NWPS
PARAMETERS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE GULF THIS
MORNING...SOUTH OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A VIGOROUS MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SWEEP
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS TEXAS WILL ENTER THE NW GULF
THIS MORNING. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY MODIFY AND
THE FRONT WILL LOSE DEFINTION AS IT MOVES INTO THE N CENTRAL GULF
LATER TODAY. THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT STRONG NW WINDS
ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...THEN DIMINISHING
RAPIDLY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH.
THE SHORT DURATION WILL NOT ALLOW SIGNIFICANT GROWTH IN WAVE
HEIGHTS...WITH SEAS REMAINING LESS THAN 8 FT IN ALL BUT BRIEFLY
OVER THE FAR SW GULF TONIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
A STRONGER FRONT ENTERING THE NORTHERN GULF LATE SUN/EARLY MON
FOLLOWED BY STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS OVER MAINLY THE N
CENTRAL AND NE GULF. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE SE AND S CENTRAL
GULF THROUGH EARLY WED...THEN STALL AND WEAKEN. ONE FORECAST
CHALLENGE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE
OVER THE NE GULF MON NIGHT REQUIRING A GALE WARNING. WINDS AND
SEAS DIMINISH ACROSS THE BASIN BY LATE WED AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN
THE WAKE OF THE DISSIPATING FRONT.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR
WAVE HEIGHTS BLENDED 00Z MWW3 AND A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF TAFB NWPS
PARAMETERS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO CENTRAL HONDURAS
WITH GENERALLY MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS N OF THE BOUNDARY.
FARTHER EAST... A SURFACE TROUGH AND WEAK LOW PRES REMAIN OVER
EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES
AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL N ATLC IS
SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE WINDS THROUGH THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS INTO THE SE CARIBBEAN...AS NOTED IN A 06 UTC OSCAT PASS.
THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN TODAY ALLOWING THESE WINDS TO DIMINISH.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A VIGOROUS MID/UPPER TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY...REINFORCING THE STALLED
FRONT AND ALLOWING IT TO MOVE TO A POSTION FROM THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE TO NICARAGUA BY LATE SUN BEFORE STALLING INTO MON. STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
THROUGH EARLY MON WITH SEAS BUILDING 8 TO 10 FT BY LATE SUN OFF
HONDURAS. THE FRONTAL MOVEMENT WILL ALSO DISPLACE THE ATLC
RIDGE...HELPING MAINTAIN STRONG TRADES OFF VENEZUELA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A SECOND FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SE GULF
TUE AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN BY MID WEEK...ALLOWING A RESURGENCE
OF N TO NE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SW AND S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY
LATE WED.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL...THEN
MODIFIED TO REFLECT AN ECMWF BLEND N OF THE BAHAMAS. FOR
WAVEHEIGHTS BLENDED 00Z MWW3 WITH A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF TAFB NWPS
PARAMETERS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED OFF THE SE U.S AND NE FLORIDA COASTS
LAST NIGHT IS ANALYZED FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA. A STRONG
MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY. MODELS CONSISTENTLY SHOW LOW PRES
DEVELOPING LATE THIS EVENING OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AHEAD OF
THE UPPER TROUGH...REINFORCING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE LOW
RAPDILY DEEPEN AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SUN NIGHT AND
EALRY MON...WITH THE TRAILING FRONT REACHING FROM 31N72W TO 26N70W
TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY LATE MON...AND FROM 31N60W TO THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE BY LATE TUE. STRONG GALES WILL FOLLOW OVER THE
WATERS N OF THE BAHAMAS IN ITS WAKE. A SECOND FRONT WILL FOLLOW
OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST BY LATE TUE...WITH GALES AGAIN FORMING
AHEAD OF IT N OF THE BAHAMAS.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W
INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W...
     GALE WARNING SUN INTO SUN NIGHT.
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT INTO TUE.
.AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W...
     GALE WARNING SUN INTO SUN NIGHT.
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT.
.AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W...
     GALE WARNING SUN NIGHT.
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.



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