Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGXX40 KNHC 050719
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
319 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOR WINDS. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE...WITH AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF...WILL DOMINATE THE
REGION DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. A HIGH PRES CENTER HAS DEVELOPED
ALONG THE RIDGE OVER THE E CENTRAL GULF. THIS WEAK HIGH PRES IS
FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF BY LATE FRI. UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE...MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL WITH SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 4 FT.

A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP EACH NIGHT OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND MOVE NW DURING LATE NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING
HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER THE SW GULF DURING LATE MORNING
HOURS. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND SEAS OF 4-5 FT WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH MAINLY IN THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. TROUGHING WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE NE GULF THIS
WEEKEND FROM THE SE UNITED STATES.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOR WINDS. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ATLC RIDGING COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NW COLOMBIA WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A RECENT ASCAT PASS PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF
GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN AROUND 110 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
WHILE AN ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED SEAS UP TO 11 FT. GALE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS MORNING...THEN
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 25-30 KT EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE
BLOWING ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. EXPECT BUILDING SEAS
OF 12-14 FT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LATE THU THROUGH SUN AS THE ATLC RIDGE TO
THE N WEAKENS AND AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVES WESTWARD N OF THE NE
CARIBBEAN.

A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 87W WILL MOVE W OF THE AREA TODAY. ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WILL
REACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE TODAY AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
BY FRI. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 47W/48W WILL ENTER THE TROPICAL
N ATLC LATE THU AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE FRI. A WEAK LOW
PRES IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE TROPICAL N ATLC.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOR WINDS. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER THE NW WATERS AND THE MOST RECENT
SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS N OF 30N W OF 77W BETWEEN THE ATLC RIDGE
AND A TROUGH OVER THE SE CONUS. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN
LATE TODAY THROUGH FRI AS AN INVERTED TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
EAST. A HIGH PRES CENTER WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGE OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL WATERS LATE TODAY AND WILL PERSIST ON THU BEFORE
MERGING BACK INTO THE WEAKENED RIDGE AXIS BY FRI.

SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ALONG THE N
COAST OF HISPANIOLA...PARTICULARLY S OF 21N BETWEEN 71W AND
74W...INCLUDING THE APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG TRADES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA
AGAIN TONIGHT BEFORE THE WEAKENED RIDGE DIMINISHES THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN...
     GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.



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