Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXAK02 KWNH 231847
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ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
147 PM EST THU NOV 23 2017

VALID 12Z MON NOV 27 2017 - 12Z FRI DEC 01 2017

PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW WILL TREND TOWARD FAVORING TROUGHING IN THE
WESTERN BERING SEA LATER NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD NUDGE THE STORM
TRACK BACK TO THE NORTH AND WEST AFTER A COUPLE ROBUST SYSTEMS
PASS THROUGH THE GULF AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA NEXT MON-THU. THE
LATEST 12Z GFS AGREED RATHER NICELY WITH THE 06Z GEFS MEAN AND 00Z
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WITH THE SYSTEMS THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE THE
00Z ECMWF WAS A BIT DISPLACED BUT OVERALL WITHIN THE ENSEMBLE
SPREAD. A BLEND OF THIS CLUSTER OFFERED A GOOD STARTING POINT.
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE CONTINUED SHIFTING OF THE ENSEMBLES, THIS DID
MODIFY CONTINUITY TOWARD A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK ON MONDAY SOUTH OF
THE AKPEN BUT THEN MORE MODEST CHANGES (TIMING AND STRENGTH) WITH
THE SECOND SYSTEM THAT SHOULD PUSH INTO SW ALASKA AS ITS COLD
FRONT CONTINUES THROUGH THE GULF NEXT WEDNESDAY. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH RELOADS BACK TO THE WEST NEXT THU-FRI, ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY PUSH THROUGH THE WESTERN BERING SEA AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
INTO WESTERN ALASKA.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH TIME FROM BELOW AVERAGE TO NEAR TO
ABOVE AVERAGE AS HEIGHT SLOWLY BUT STEADILY RISE AND MAY RISE
SUBSTANTIALLY LATER NEXT WEEK SHOULD THE STORM TRACK REMAIN WELL
WEST OF THE MAINLAND. TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING ARE NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION LATER IN THE WEEK BETWEEN BETHEL/NOME/MCGRATH.
PRECIPITATION WILL FOCUS OVER SOUTHCENTRAL AND THE PANHANDLE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AND THEN SHIFT TOWARD WESTERN AREAS
LATER IN THE WEEK.


FRACASSO


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