Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXAK02 KWNH 271756
PMDAK

ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
155 PM EDT MON MAR 27 2017

VALID 12Z FRI MAR 31 2017 - 12Z TUE APR 04 2017

BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND
WESTERN AK WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES/THE YUKON
SLOWLY NUDGING IN FROM THE EAST.  OPERATIONAL MODELS AND THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC SETUP OF THIS FEATURE INTO DAY 5/FRIDAY NIGHT.
DIFFERENCES ARISE THEREAFTER IN REGARDS TO AN INITIAL CYCLONE
APPROACHING THE ALEUTIANS AND AK PENINSULA (THE 12Z GFS NORTH, 00Z
ECMWF SOUTHEAST, AND 00Z CANADIAN CLOSEST TO THE ENSEMBLE MEAN
SOLUTIONS).  A SECOND DEEP CYCLONE SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN SHOWS
LARGER TIMING ISSUES EARLY NEXT WEEK.  USED A COMPROMISE OF THE
06Z AND 12Z GFS, 00Z CANADIAN, 00Z ECMWF, AND 00Z UKMET EARLY, AND
TRANSITIONED TOWARDS A MAJORITY 00Z NAEFS MEAN/00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN BLEND THEREAFTER.  THIS IDEA MAINTAINED REASONABLE CONTINUITY.

WEATHER-WISE, EXPECT HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL,
SOUTHEAST, AND THE AK PANHANDLE FRIDAY BEFORE PRECIPITATION SLOWLY
FADES IN INTENSITY OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN INITIAL CYCLONE WEAKENS
WHILE MOVING INTO WESTERN AK.  WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE COAST AND ALEUTIANS, PAR FOR THE COURSE FOR THE COLD
SEASON. THE CYCLONE PROGRESSION INTO AND NEAR AK SHOULD LEAD TO
CLOUDY SKIES AND MILDNESS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND INTERIOR AK, WITH
SEASONABLY COLD READINGS REMAINING ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE AT THE
PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONIC GYRE.

ROTH

$$




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