Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXAK02 KWNH 281632
PMDAK

ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1231 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

VALID 12Z MON JUN 01 2015 - 12Z FRI JUN 05 2015


THE MODELS HAVE COME ABRUPTLY SOUTHWARD WITH THE CYCLONE WEST OF
THE DATE LINE AT THE START OF THE MEDIUM RANGE, BUT ARE IN SUCH
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WILL ASSUME THEY HAVE LOCKED ONTO A RELIABLE
SIGNAL. HAVE BEEN USING EC-BASED GUIDANCE THE LAST FEW DAYS, AND
SINCE THE 00Z/28 ECMWF IS SO WELL CORRELATED WITH ITS ATTENDANT
ENSEMBLE MEAN--AND THE 06Z/28 GFS--THAT IT WOULD SEEM TO MAKE A
REASONABLE SYNOPTIC GUIDE THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. THE
MUCH-ADVERTISED BLOCK IS STILL A GO, WITH NET EASTERLIES EXPECTED
FOR MUCH OF INTERIOR ALASKA. THE STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW COULD WELL
SEND TEMPERATURES SOARING OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST. COUPLED WITH
LOW HUMIDITIES, THE HEAT WOULD BE A FACTOR IN THE RISK OF
WILDFIRES.


CISCO

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