Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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860
FXCA20 KWBC 051911
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
210 PM EST FRI FEB 05 2016

TROPICAL DISCUSSION FROM FEBRUARY 05/12 UTC: AMPLIFYING POLAR
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL USA TO THE NORTHERN STATES OF
MEXICO LATER TODAY. THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING IT IS TO PULL ACROSS
THE EASTERN USA...DEEPENING TO A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OFF THE
COAST OF GEORGIA/NORTH FLORIDA EARLY ON SUNDAY. AT LOW
LEVELS...THE TROUGH ALOFT IS TO INTERACT WITH A MEANDERING FRONT.
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO THE FRONT IS TO EXTEND ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS-WESTERN CUBA TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN/CAMPECHE
SOUND. THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING/EARLY MORNING ON SUNDAY...A
FRONTAL WAVE/LOW IS TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. THIS IS TO
GRADUALLY DEEPEN AS IT PULLS TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST.
MEANWHILE...THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ENSUING
NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS CUBA-WESTERN CARIBBEAN-CENTRAL
AMERICA...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TO PEAK AROUND 25-30KT ON
SATURDAY TO SUNDAY. THIS...IN-TURN...WILL DRIVE THE FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE YUCATAN TO SOUTHERN BELIZE/CENTRAL GUATEMALA EARLY ON
SUNDAY MORNING. LATER ON SUNDAY THE FRONT WILL SURGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST BAHAMAS-CUBA-THE CAYMAN ISLES WHILE TRAILING INTO
NORTHERN HONDURAS. EARLY ON MONDAY THE FRONT PULLS ACROSS THE
TURKS AND CAICOS-EASTERN CUBA...JAMAICA TO BELIZE/NORTHERN
HONDURAS. FURTHERMORE...THE FRONTAL LOW...AS IT DEEPENS NORTH OF
THE BAHAMAS...IS TO SUSTAIN AN INDUCED/PREFRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS IS TO EXTEND NORTH FROM COLOMBIA TO
EASTERN CUBA LATER ON SATURDAY AND IS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THIS PERTURBATION
EXPECTING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER
THE HAITIAN PENINSULA-EASTERN CUBA-JAMAICA...AND IT IS TO ALSO
ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ACROSS BOCAS DEL TORO IN WESTERN
PANAMA/CARIBBEAN COASTAL PLAINS OF COSTA RICA.

OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO-CENTRAL GUATEMALA THE FRONT AND FRONTAL
NORTHERLIES ARE TO SUSTAIN SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ON SATURDAY THE
MAXIMA IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 20-45MM AS THE SURFACE FRONT
SURGES ACROSS THE YUCATAN...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ON SUNDAY. ACROSS
BELIZE EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-45MM THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...DECREASING TO 05-10MM/AND
MAXIMA OF 15-20MM ON SUNDAY MORNING. OVER THE BAHAMAS-WESTERN CUBA
EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-20MM/DAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...WHILE ON SUNDAY TO MORNING
EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 10MM. THE
SURGING NORTHERLIES ARE TO ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN
HONDURAS TO PUERTO BARRIOS GUATEMALA...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
20-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 50-100MM TO CLUSTER ACROSS ISLAS DE LA
BAHIA/NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS. ON SUNDAY THIS DECREASES TO
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. ACROSS COSTA RICA-WESTERN
PANAMA THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-30MM ON SUNDAY TO MONDAY...WHILE OVER
HAITI-JAMAICA EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 10MM.

AT MID/UPPER LEVELS...A FLAT/LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE IS TO CONFINE TO
SOUTHERN MEXICO-CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. EARLY IN
THE CYCLE THIS IS TO ANCHOR ON A 500 HPA CLOSED HIGH NEAR THE
CAYMAN ISLES. THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING THE HIGH RELOCATES TO JUST
SOUTH OF HAITI...WHILE ASSOCIATED RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO-CENTRAL
AMERICA-JAMAICA-HISPANIOLA THIS WILL SUSTAIN A MID/UPPER
CONVERGENT PATTERN THAT IS TO INHIBIT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION.
ACROSS PUERTO RICO-EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLES THIS IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN LATER IN THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS
TO ALSO SUSTAIN AN INVERSION ACROSS NORTHERN COLOMBIA-WESTERN
VENEZUELA. UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE POLAR FRONT TO THE NORTH...AND
ENSUING PRESSURE GRADIENT...LOW LEVEL TRADES OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC ARE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH SATURDAY...DISPLACING THE
EASTERN PACIFIC ITCZ SOUTH. THIS WILL ALSO FAVOR UPWELLING OF COLD
WATER BETWEEN CENTRAL AMERICA-COLOMBIA...AND IS LIKELY TO LEAD TO
A GRADUAL DECREASE IN DIURNAL CONVECTION ON THE WESTERN PLAINS OF
COLOMBIA/ANDEAN REGION. IN THIS AREA INITIALLY EXPECTING RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM...DECREASING TO
00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 10MM ON SATURDAY-SUNDAY. FURTHER
SOUTH...EQUATORIAL TROUGH CONVERGENCE OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA
IS TO ENHANCE DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GUIANAS TO
SOUTHERN VENEZUELA...TO RESULT IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 15-30MM. HIGHER AMOUNTS...HOWEVER...ARE POSSIBLE
OVER SOUTHERN COLOMBIA INTO NORTHERN PERU LATER ON SATURDAY...WHEN
THE MAXIMA INCREASES TO 30-60MM.

TUTT LOW NEAR 20N 60W ANCHORS A TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN-VENEZUELA. AT LOW LEVELS THIS SUSTAINS AN
INDUCED/INVERTED TROUGH WITH CLOSED LOW OVER PUERTO RICO EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. THE TUTT LOW IS TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY...THEN AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE BASIN THE TUTT IS TO WEAKEN
WHILE RELOCATING TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. THE BUILDING RIDGE IS TO
SLOWLY STRENGTHEN THE TRADE WINDS CAP EARLY ON MONDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...IT IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER ABOVE 650/700 HPA. AT LOW
LEVELS...TUTT INDUCED TROUGH DECOUPLES FROM THE UPPER LEVEL
AXIS...AND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON IT MOVES TO WESTERN
VENEZUELA-SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA. ON SATURDAY IT IS TO MEANDER ALONG
76W/77W WHILE GRADUALLY MERGING INTO AN INDUCED/PREFRONTAL TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. AS IT PULLS ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THIS IS TO ENHANCE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE TO
RESULT IN SCATTERED CONVECTION. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM.
AS IT PULLS ACROSS SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA TO JAMAICA THIS IS TO THEN
FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 10MM ON
SATURDAY TO SUNDAY...WITH SIMILAR AMOUNTS ACROSS SANTANDERES
COLOMBIA/MARACAIBO VENEZUELA. FURTHERMORE...THE LOW LEVEL
TROUGH...AS IT PULLS ACROSS THE EASTERN TO CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS TO
INDUCE A MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS
EXPECTED OVER THE WINDWARD ISLES-NORTHEAST VENEZUELA-NORTHERN
GUYANA...WHERE WE EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...AND 00-05MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 10MM ON SATURDAY TO SUNDAY.

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12UTC.
INITIAL    24    36    48    60    72    84    96         TYPE
NONE

HUNTE...BMS (BARBADOS)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
$$





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