Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXHW01 KWNH 241209
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
808 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

VALID 00Z WED MAY 25 2016 - 00Z WED JUN 01 2016

LATEST GUIDANCE AGREES FAIRLY WELL WITH THE GENERAL EVOLUTION
THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT WITH SOME DETAIL DIFFERENCES THAT LEAD TO
UNCERTAINTY IN SPECIFICS BY LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.  FOR
MOST OF THE WEEK EXPECT TRADES ON THE LIGHTER HALF OF THE SPECTRUM
WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEA BREEZE FOCUS OF RAINFALL AT TIMES.  A
SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL CROSS THE STATE WED-WED NIGHT.  THIS FEATURE
ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME
ENHANCEMENT IN RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE STATE FROM TUE NIGHT
THROUGH WED OR WED NIGHT.  FROM THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE STATE WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARD OR INTO THE ISLANDS, LEADING TO A
DISRUPTION IN TRADES.  RELATIVE TO THE CURRENT GUIDANCE SPREAD THE
06Z GFS BECOMES SOMEWHAT FAST WITH THE FRONT WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF
MAY BE A LITTLE SLOW.  TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD THE 00Z GFS
PULLS ITS UPPER LOW FARTHER SOUTH THAN OTHER SOLUTIONS, ULTIMATELY
LEAVING A COMPROMISE AMONG THE 00Z GEFS/NAEFS/ECMWF MEANS AS THE
BEST OPTION WHEN GUIDANCE DIVERGES.

RAUSCH

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