Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXHW01 KWNH 261210
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
809 AM EDT SUN MAR 26 2017

VALID 00Z MON MAR 27 2017 - 00Z MON APR 03 2017

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER HAWAII FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK FEATURES
LARGE-SCALE RIDGING CENTERED ALONG ROUGHLY 30 DEGREES NORTH
LATITUDE, WITH GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND
THEIR ENSEMBLES THAT ANY MAJOR SYSTEMS SHOULD REMAIN WELL NORTH OF
THE STATE. EXPECT A MAINLY TYPICAL TRADE WIND PATTERN, WITH SOME
WEAKENING IN SPEED EARLY IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN AND A TROUGH APPROACHES TO THE NORTH. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT AND CONFINED TO MAINLY WINDWARD AND MOUNTAINOUS AREAS
DURING THAT TIME. BY MID-WEEK, MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A
SURFACE LOW INTENSIFYING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC AND TRACKING
TOWARDS ALASKA. THE IMPLICATIONS FOR HAWAII WILL BE THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK, WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER
BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MODELS ARE NOT INDICATING ANYTHING
IN TERMS OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT WOULD
EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN SHOWERY ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ISLANDS
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

SANTORELLI

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