Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXHW01 KWNH 241211
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
810 AM EDT SAT SEP 24 2016

VALID 00Z SUN SEP 25 2016 - 00Z SUN OCT 02 2016

LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS NO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH LARGE SCALE
PATTERN.  BY MONDAY-TUESDAY EXPECT TRADES TO STRENGTHEN TO
MODERATE/BRISK LEVELS AS A FRONT STALLING WELL NORTH OF THE STATE
DISSIPATES AND TRAILING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN PACIFIC.  SHOWERS WILL TEND TO FAVOR WINDWARD
LOCALES BUT MOISTURE MAY OCCASIONALLY REACH OTHER LOCATIONS AS
WELL.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD DECREASE SOMEWHAT AFTER
TODAY WITH SOME DAY TO DAY FLUCTUATIONS THEREAFTER.  LATEST
GFS/ECMWF RUNS DIFFER ON EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE PWATS MAY BE
RELATIVELY HIGHER OR LOWER.  SCALE IS SUFFICIENTLY SMALL THAT
PREDICTABILITY IS QUITE LOW FOR THAT ASPECT OF THE FORECAST BUT AT
THE MOMENT THESE DIFFERENCES IN PWATS APPEAR TO HAVE FAIRLY MODEST
IMPACT ON EXPECTED RAINFALL.

RAUSCH

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