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FXUS06 KWBC 211901
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT MON JULY 21 2014

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 27 - 31 2014

TODAYS MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT PREDICTING A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE AMPLITUDE OF THE PATTERN HAS BEEN INCREASING WITH EACH
SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, SO THERE IS FAIRLY HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE PATTERN IN TODAYS 6-10 DAY FORECAST. TODAY`S OFFICIAL
500-HPA HEIGHT MANUAL BLEND FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD FEATURES AN ANOMALOUSLY
STRONG RIDGE OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND WESTERN ALASKA, A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS, AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN AN ANONYMOUSLY DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, THE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO ORIGINATE OVER THE
PACIFIC, RATHER THAN CANADA, SO TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS
BELOW-NORMAL AS WITH THE TROUGH THAT ARRIVED IN THE EASTERN CONUS LAST WEEK.

A HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS FAVORS ANOMALOUS
NORTHERLY WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S.
PROBABILITIES ARE HIGHEST OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE OHIO AND MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS WHERE NEGATIVE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE
GREATEST. SINCE THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO THE GULF COAST UNTIL
LATER IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, TEMPERATURES ALONG THE GULF COAST, IN FLORIDA,
AND IN COASTAL REGIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL. ANOMALOUS RIDGING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR MOST OF TEXAS AND INTO THE SOUTHWEST. ANOMALOUS RIDGING COMBINED WITH
ANOMALOUS OFFSHORE WINDS STRONGLY FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WESTERN CONUS. WELL ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS FAVOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE ALEUTIANS, SOUTHERN ALASKA, AND THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE,
EXCEPT IN NORTHERN ALASKA WHERE HIGH PRESSURE AND ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW
FAVOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

ANOMALOUS RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS IS EXPECTED TO PREVENT STORM SYSTEMS
FROM COMING ONSHORE, FAVORING BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THE FRONT FORECAST OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN U.S. WILL BE A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION, FAVORING ABOVE
MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE
EASTERN CONUS. ANOMALOUS RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE FAVORS BELOW MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS. WELL ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS FAVOR
BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHERN ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS.

TODAY`S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 25 PERCENT OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS
CENTERED ON DAY 8...35 PERCENT OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 8...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8.

MODEL OF THE DAY: TODAY`S 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: WELL ABOVE AVERAGE, 5 OUT OF 5,
DUE TO EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AMONG TODAY`S MODELS AND TOOLS.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 29 - AUG 04, 2014

THE FORECAST CIRCULATION FOR WEEK-2 IS EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD, THOUGH LESS AMPLIFIED. THE TEMPERATURE ANOMALY OUTLOOK IS SIMILAR TO
THAT IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, WITH SEVERAL DIFFERENCES NOTED. THE FORECAST
PROBABILITIES ARE ALL SLIGHTLY LOWER DUE TO A LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN AND THE
GENERAL INCREASE IN UNCERTAINTY FROM THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD TO THE WEEK-2 PERIOD,
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS STILL RELATIVELY HIGH. THE FRONT IS PREDICTED TO REACH THE
GULF COAST DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, SO NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
NOW FAVORED FOR THE GULF COAST AND THE SOUTHEAST. THE PRECIPITATION ANOMALY
OUTLOOK IT SIMILAR TO THAT IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, WITH LOWER PROBABILITIES.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 30 PERCENT OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS
CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 50 PERCENT OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE
TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND TOOLS, OFFSET BY THE FACT THAT THE
PATTERN IS PREDICTED TO BE LESS AMPLIFIED THAN IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD.

FORECASTER: MIKE CHARLES

NOTES:


AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW

THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.

THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
AUGUST 21

ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19810701 - 19770701 - 19670707 - 20050717 - 20020727


ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19810630 - 19770701 - 20050717 - 19670707 - 19810731


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 27 - 31 2014

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    N
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    B     NEVADA      A    N
W MONTANA   A    B     E MONTANA   A    B     WYOMING     A    B
UTAH        A    N     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    B    N
NEW MEXICO  A    N     N DAKOTA    B    B     S DAKOTA    B    B
NEBRASKA    B    N     KANSAS      B    A     OKLAHOMA    B    A
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    B     W TEXAS     A    B
MINNESOTA   B    N     IOWA        B    N     MISSOURI    B    A
ARKANSAS    B    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   B    N
ILLINOIS    B    A     MISSISSIPPI B    A     MICHIGAN    B    A
INDIANA     B    A     OHIO        B    A     KENTUCKY    B    A
TENNESSEE   B    A     ALABAMA     B    A     NEW YORK    B    A
VERMONT     B    A     NEW HAMP    B    A     MAINE       N    A
MASS        B    A     CONN        B    A     RHODE IS    B    A
PENN        B    A     NEW JERSEY  B    A     W VIRGINIA  B    A
MARYLAND    B    A     DELAWARE    B    A     VIRGINIA    B    A
N CAROLINA  B    A     S CAROLINA  B    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  B    N
AK ALEUTIAN A    B     AK WESTERN  N    B     AK INT BSN  N    B
AK S INT    A    B     AK SO COAST A    B     AK PNHDL    A    N



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 29 - AUG 04, 2014

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    N
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    B     NEVADA      A    N
W MONTANA   A    B     E MONTANA   A    B     WYOMING     N    N
UTAH        A    N     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    N    N
NEW MEXICO  A    N     N DAKOTA    N    N     S DAKOTA    B    N
NEBRASKA    B    N     KANSAS      B    A     OKLAHOMA    B    A
N TEXAS     B    A     S TEXAS     A    B     W TEXAS     A    N
MINNESOTA   B    N     IOWA        B    N     MISSOURI    B    A
ARKANSAS    B    A     LOUISIANA   B    A     WISCONSIN   B    N
ILLINOIS    B    N     MISSISSIPPI B    A     MICHIGAN    B    N
INDIANA     B    A     OHIO        B    A     KENTUCKY    B    A
TENNESSEE   B    A     ALABAMA     B    A     NEW YORK    B    A
VERMONT     N    A     NEW HAMP    N    A     MAINE       N    A
MASS        N    A     CONN        N    A     RHODE IS    N    A
PENN        B    A     NEW JERSEY  N    A     W VIRGINIA  B    A
MARYLAND    B    A     DELAWARE    B    A     VIRGINIA    B    A
N CAROLINA  B    A     S CAROLINA  B    A     GEORGIA     B    A
FL PNHDL    N    A     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  B    N
AK ALEUTIAN A    B     AK WESTERN  A    B     AK INT BSN  N    N
AK S INT    N    B     AK SO COAST A    B     AK PNHDL    N    A

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$




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