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971
FXUS06 KWBC 052001
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST FRI FEBRUARY 05 2016

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 11 - 15 2016

TODAY`S DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED
500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN. THE OFFICIAL
BLENDED HEIGHT PATTERN FEATURES HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW. A TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER
THE ALEUTIANS EXTENDING TO THE NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN, RIDGING IS FORECAST OVER
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA, AND TROUGHING IS PREDICTED OVER THE EAST COAST. THE
ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS INDICATE MODERATE TO HIGH SPREAD ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN. TODAY`S 500-HPA BLEND CHART DEPICTS BELOW
NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES, THE NORTHEAST, AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA,
WHILE ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE INDICATED OVER THE REMAINDER OF BOTH THE CONUS
AND ALASKA. TODAY`S MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND IS COMPOSED PRIMARILY OF THE
ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS, BASED LARGELY ON CONSIDERATIONS OF RECENT SKILL AND ON
ANALOG CORRELATIONS, WHICH MEASURE HOW CLOSELY THE MODEL SOLUTIONS RESEMBLE
CASES THAT HAVE OCCURRED IN THE PAST.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR ALASKA, DUE TO EXPECTED ANOMALOUS
LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THE PREDICTED RIDGE ALOFT. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS DUE TO EXPECTED
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND WARMER THAN NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG
THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS. BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS AND NORTHERLY
ANOMALOUS FLOW, ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD, INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.

SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ENHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR
ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE GREAT
LAKES. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE ALSO INDICATED
FOR WASHINGTON AND SOUTHERN ALASKA CONSISTENT WITH PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES FROM
THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. RIDGING OVER THE WEST INCREASES THE
LIKELIHOOD OF NEAR TO BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE REMAINDER OF BOTH THE
CONUS AND ALASKA.

TODAY`S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY`S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20%
OF TODAY`S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF YESTERDAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 7, AND 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA PATTERN AND FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
TOOLS.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 13 - 19 2016

TODAY`S ENSEMBLE MEAN DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
PREDICTED 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR THE WEEK-2 PERIOD.
THE PREDICTED CIRCULATION PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE
MIDDLE LATITUDES OF NORTH AMERICA. A TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST, WHILE A RIDGE IS PREDICTED OVER EASTERN ALASKA. THE
500-HPA BLEND CHART DEPICTS BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES, THE OHIO
VALLEY, THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA WHILE ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE
INDICATED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS. THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS
INDICATE MODERATE TO HIGH SPREAD ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN.

BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS AND NORTHERLY ANOMALOUS FLOW INCREASE THE CHANCE
FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST CONUS.
ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS AND MORE ZONAL FLOW ENHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS CONSISTENT WITH
GEFS REFORECAST GUIDANCE AND BIAS CORRECTED TEMPERATURES FROM TODAY`S GFS AND
ECMWF ENSEMBLES. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ALSO INCREASES THE CHANCE FOR ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURE OVER ALASKA.

TROUGHING PREDICTED OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA ENHANCES PROBABILITIES FOR NEAR
TO ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE GREAT
LAKES, THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE NORTHEAST CONUS. PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES FROM
THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FAVOR NEAR TO BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CONUS AND NORTHERN ALASKA AND ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION
FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ALASKA.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 20% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY`S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
11, 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF
YESTERDAY`S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10, AND 20% OF TODAY`S
0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE
TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA PATTERN AND FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE TOOLS.

FORECASTER: LUKE HE

NOTES:


AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW

THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.

THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
FEBRUARY 18

ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19640125 - 19760126 - 19880119 - 19780120 - 19520126


ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19640125 - 19780122 - 19880118 - 19520125 - 19600208


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 11 - 15 2016

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    A     OREGON      A    N     NRN CALIF   A    B
SRN CALIF   A    B     IDAHO       A    B     NEVADA      A    B
W MONTANA   A    N     E MONTANA   A    B     WYOMING     A    B
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    B     COLORADO    A    B
NEW MEXICO  A    B     N DAKOTA    A    N     S DAKOTA    A    B
NEBRASKA    A    B     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    A    B
N TEXAS     A    B     S TEXAS     A    B     W TEXAS     A    B
MINNESOTA   N    A     IOWA        N    N     MISSOURI    N    B
ARKANSAS    N    B     LOUISIANA   N    B     WISCONSIN   B    A
ILLINOIS    N    N     MISSISSIPPI N    B     MICHIGAN    B    A
INDIANA     B    N     OHIO        B    N     KENTUCKY    B    B
TENNESSEE   B    B     ALABAMA     B    B     NEW YORK    B    N
VERMONT     B    N     NEW HAMP    B    N     MAINE       B    N
MASS        B    B     CONN        B    B     RHODE IS    B    B
PENN        B    B     NEW JERSEY  B    B     W VIRGINIA  B    B
MARYLAND    B    B     DELAWARE    B    B     VIRGINIA    B    B
N CAROLINA  B    B     S CAROLINA  B    B     GEORGIA     B    B
FL PNHDL    B    B     FL PENIN    B    B     AK N SLOPE  A    B
AK ALEUTIAN A    N     AK WESTERN  A    N     AK INT BSN  A    B
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    A    A



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 13 - 19 2016

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    N     OREGON      A    N     NRN CALIF   A    B
SRN CALIF   A    B     IDAHO       A    N     NEVADA      A    B
W MONTANA   A    N     E MONTANA   A    N     WYOMING     A    N
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    B     COLORADO    A    B
NEW MEXICO  A    B     N DAKOTA    A    N     S DAKOTA    A    N
NEBRASKA    A    N     KANSAS      A    N     OKLAHOMA    A    N
N TEXAS     A    B     S TEXAS     A    B     W TEXAS     A    B
MINNESOTA   N    A     IOWA        N    A     MISSOURI    N    N
ARKANSAS    A    N     LOUISIANA   A    B     WISCONSIN   B    A
ILLINOIS    N    A     MISSISSIPPI N    B     MICHIGAN    B    A
INDIANA     N    A     OHIO        B    A     KENTUCKY    N    N
TENNESSEE   N    N     ALABAMA     N    B     NEW YORK    B    A
VERMONT     B    A     NEW HAMP    B    A     MAINE       B    A
MASS        B    A     CONN        B    A     RHODE IS    B    N
PENN        B    A     NEW JERSEY  B    N     W VIRGINIA  N    N
MARYLAND    N    N     DELAWARE    N    N     VIRGINIA    N    N
N CAROLINA  N    N     S CAROLINA  N    N     GEORGIA     N    B
FL PNHDL    N    B     FL PENIN    N    B     AK N SLOPE  A    B
AK ALEUTIAN A    N     AK WESTERN  A    N     AK INT BSN  A    B
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    A    A

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$




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