Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS21 KWNC 031815
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT JUNE 03 2015

SYNOPSIS: A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS ARE PREDICTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE LOWER 48 STATES DURING THE 3-7 DAY PERIOD. UPSTREAM, A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY TUESDAY. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN ALASKA OVER THE
WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS NEXT MONDAY TO
WEDNESDAY.

HAZARDS

HEAVY RAIN FOR PARTS OF THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, SAT, JUN 6.

HEAVY RAIN FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY, SUN, JUN 7.

MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN, PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, AND NORTHERN ROCKIES, SAT-TUE, JUN 6-9.

FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS,
NEBRASKA, AND CENTRAL COLORADO.

SEVERE DROUGHT FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS, SOUTHWEST, GREAT BASIN,
CALIFORNIA, AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHWESTERN CONUS AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, THU-SUN, JUN 11-14.

DETAILED SUMMARY

FOR SATURDAY JUNE 06 - WEDNESDAY JUNE 10: A SURFACE LOW AND ITS TRAILING COLD
FRONT ARE ANTICIPATED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE
GREAT LAKES DURING THE 3-7 DAY PERIOD. THIS STORM MAY BRING HEAVY RAIN TO PARTS
OF THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY, THEN TO THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY. LOCALIZED AREAS MAY RECEIVE UP TO 2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL OR GREATER IN A 24-HOUR PERIOD.



AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
CONUS, INCREASING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN, PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AND NORTHERN ROCKIES
SATURDAY TO TUESDAY. DAILY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES IN THIS AREA MAY REACH
20 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL OR GREATER, WITH TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY REACHING
THE UPPER 90S AND EVEN TRIPLE DIGITS IN LOCALIZED AREAS (DEG F).



THERE ARE NUMEROUS AREAS OF ONGOING FLOODING ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CONUS, NEBRASKA, AND CENTRAL COLORADO. TO OBTAIN THE VERY LATEST, DETAILED
INFORMATION ON THE STATUS OF STREAMS AND RIVERS ACROSS THE U.S., PLEASE CONSULT
THE RIVER FORECAST CENTER (RFC) HOMEPAGE AT:
HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/RFC/RFC.PHP.

FOR THURSDAY JUNE 11 - WEDNESDAY JUNE 17: THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS DURING THE 3-7 DAY PERIOD IS ANTICIPATED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD, WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AT THE END OF THE 3-7 DAY PERIOD,
TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS BY NEXT THURSDAY. THIS PATTERN
FAVORS INCREASED CHANCES OF ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA.
THEREFORE, A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES HAS BEEN
IDENTIFIED FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA NEXT
THURSDAY TO SUNDAY, JUNE 11 TO 14.



THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ACROSS
PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION NEXT WEDNESDAY, WITH MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 90S (DEG F). HOWEVER, THERE IS SIGNIFICANT MODEL
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE POSSIBILITY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE PROPAGATING
ACROSS THIS AREA, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES. DUE TO THIS
UNCERTAINTY, AN ADDITIONAL HAZARDS AREA IS NOT SPECIFIED AT THIS TIME.



THE MOST RECENT U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR, RELEASED MAY 28TH, INDICATES A DECREASE
(FROM 15.16 TO 14.20) IN THE PERCENTAGE OF THE CONUS IN SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL
DROUGHT (D2-D4). THIS REPRESENTS THE SMALLEST AREAL COVERAGE OF D2-D4 SINCE
MARCH 2011.

FORECASTER: MELISSA OU

$$



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