Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS21 KWNC 022101
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST MARCH 02 2015

SYNOPSIS: A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST
COASTS AS AREAS OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PROPAGATE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN U.S. A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA. AN AREA OF
UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. DURING
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD AND EARLY IN THE WEEK 2 PERIOD. IN HAWAII, AN UPPER-AIR
DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO BRING HEAVY PRECIPITATION, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
SOUTHERN ISLANDS OF THE ARCHIPELAGO.

HAZARDS

HEAVY SNOW FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST, MID-ATLANTIC, CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, AND
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, THU, MAR 5.

FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC, SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS,
SOUTHEAST, TENNESSEE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS, AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, THU,
MAR 5.

HIGH WINDS ALONG PARTS OF THE GULF COAST, THU-FRI, MAR 5-6.

HIGH WINDS ALONG PARTS OF THE EAST COAST, THU-FRI, MAR 5-6.

MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS
(EXCEPT THE SOUTHEAST), THU-SUN, MAR 5-8.

HEAVY SNOWS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL ALASKA NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE,
SAT-SUN, MAR 7-8.

SIGNIFICANT WAVES FOR COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA, SAT-SUN, MAR 7-8.

FLOODING POSSIBLE OR LIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC, CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS, AND OHIO VALLEY.

A SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE
NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC, TUE-SAT, MAR 10-14.

A SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ALASKA, TUE-FRI, MAR 10-13.

A MODERATE RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF
EAST-CENTRAL ALASKA, TUE, MAR 10.

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN FOR HAWAII (ESPECIALLY MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND), THU-MON,
MAR 5-9.

FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IMMINENT IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI, THU, MAR 5.

SEVERE DROUGHT FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS, SOUTHWEST, GREAT
BASIN, CALIFORNIA, THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AND TENNESSEE VALLEY.

DETAILED SUMMARY

FOR THURSDAY MARCH 05 - MONDAY MARCH 09: A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST COASTS. AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE FORECAST
TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT LEADING TO HEAVY SNOW (IN EXCESS OF 4
INCHES IN 24 HOURS) FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST, MID-ATLANTIC, CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS, AND OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS MAR 5. FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET
IS EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC, SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, SOUTHEAST,
TENNESSEE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS, AND SOUTHERN PLAINS MAR 5. HIGH WINDS
(N EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS) ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG THE GULF AND EAST COASTS MAR 5-6.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM LEADS TO MUCH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES (NEGATIVE ANOMALIES OF 12-30 DEGREES) SPREADING EASTWARD
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS (EXCEPT THE SOUTHEAST) MAR 5-8.



ANTECEDENT RAINFALL, ALONG WITH SNOW MELT AND THE EXPECTATION OF ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION LEADS TO POSSIBLE OR LIKELY RIVER FLOODING FOR PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC, CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, OHIO VALLEY, AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.



LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA LEADING TO HEAVY SNOW (IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES IN
24 HOURS) FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL ALASKA NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE MAR
7-8. IN ADDITION, SIGNIFICANT WAVES (IN EXCESS OF 20 FEET) ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA MAR 7-8.



A 500-HPA TROUGH OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC IS PREDICTED NEAR HAWAII. AS A
RESULT, SEVERAL MODELS PREDICT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-5 INCHES FOR THE ISLANDS
IN GENERAL, AND LOCALLY UP TO A FOOT OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN MAUI AND THE BIG
ISLAND DURING THIS PERIOD.

FOR TUESDAY MARCH 10 - MONDAY MARCH 16: THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC MAR 10-14



THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE EASTERN THREE
QUARTERS OF ALASKA MAR 10-13. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL ALASKA MAR 10.



THE MOST RECENT U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR, RELEASED FEBRUARY 26, 2015, INDICATES A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D2 TO
D4) IN THE PAST WEEK FROM 16.44 TO 16.42 PERCENT ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL U.S.
FORTY PERCENT OF CALIFORNIA REMAINS DESIGNATED IN THE EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4)
CATEGORY. ALTHOUGH MOST REVISIONS MADE TO THE MONITOR THIS WEEK ARE FAIRLY
SMALL, THE MORE NOTABLE CHANGES INCLUDE A GENERAL 1-CATEGORY IMPROVEMENT IN
KENTUCKY AND WESTERN TENNESSEE, AND A 1-CATEGORY DEGRADATION ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST AREA.

FORECASTER: RANDY SCHECHTER

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