Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS

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956
FXUS21 KWNC 301942
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT MAY 30 2016

SYNOPSIS: THE REMNANTS OF BONNIE, CURRENTLY CONCENTRATED NEAR THE COAST OF
SOUTH CAROLINA (MAY 30), ARE EXPECTED TO DRIFT VERY SLOWLY UP THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST AND DELMARVA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE
REMNANTS MAY FINALLY MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND OUT TO SEA OVER THE
WEEKEND, AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND EXITS THE EAST COAST. THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THIS FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO STALL ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH, THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND TEXAS, WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE TEXAS COAST. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO CONTRIBUTE TO MUCH ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE WESTERN CONUS. RELATIVELY WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS ARE PREDICTED TO INFLUENCE ALASKA DURING THE HAZARDS PERIOD, BUT NONE
ARE EXPECTED TO BRING HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS.

HAZARDS

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST, THU-FRI, JUNE 2-3.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST, SAT-SUN, JUNE 4-5.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TEXAS, THU-FRI, JUNE 2-3.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FOR COASTAL TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA, SAT-SUN, JUNE 4-5.

FLOODING IS OCCURRING, IMMINENT, LIKELY, OR POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF TEXAS, THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY, AND ALONG THE
MINNESOTA-IOWA BORDER.

MUCH ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA, THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN REGION,
AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, THU-MON, JUNE 2-6.

A SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF BOTH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKIES, AND MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, TUE-WED, JUNE 7-8.

A MODERATE RISK OF MUCH ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR IDAHO, MONTANA, AND MUCH
OF WYOMING, TUE-WED, JUNE 7-8.

SEVERE DROUGHT ACROSS PARTS OF CALIFORNIA, NEVADA, NORTH-CENTRAL WYOMING, AND
HAWAII.

DETAILED SUMMARY

FOR THURSDAY JUNE 02 - MONDAY JUNE 06: THE REMNANTS OF BONNIE ARE EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND DELMARVA PENINSULA OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BY THE START OF THIS PERIOD, LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN (1-3 INCHES
IN A 2-DAY PERIOD) IS PREDICTED ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST, FROM ABOUT
COASTAL MARYLAND TO THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA ON JUNE 2-3. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY BRING HEAVY RAIN (1-3 INCHES) TO THE OUTER BANKS ON
JUNE 4-5. BY SUNDAY, THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST AND OUT TO SEA, TAKING THE REMNANTS OF BONNIE OUT WITH IT.



A STALLED FRONT ACROSS TEXAS IS PREDICTED TO BRING HEAVY RAIN (2-4 INCHES IN A
2-DAY PERIOD) TO MUCH OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN TEXAS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
JUNE 2-3. AS THIS STALLED FRONT WEAKENS, ANOTHER COLD FRONT (THE ONE NOTED
ABOVE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH BONNIE`S REMNANTS OUT TO SEA) IS FORECAST TO
STALL ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH, LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND TEXAS. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE TEXAS COAST IS PREDICTED TO BRING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN (1-4 INCHES) TO THE TEXAS COAST AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA.



FLOODING IS OCCURRING, IMMINENT, LIKELY, OR POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
AND SOUTHERN TEXAS DURING THIS PERIOD, DUE TO A COMBINATION OF FLOODING
CURRENTLY IN PROGRESS, AND THE FORECAST OF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TWO FRONTS AND LOW PRESSURE CENTER NOTED ABOVE. ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND
LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY, ONGOING FLOODING IS LIKELY TO BE EXACERBATED BY
MORE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD. A VERY SMALL AREA OF FLOODING
IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE MINNESOTA-IOWA BORDER, AS DEPICTED ON THE MAP.



OUT WEST, MUCH ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD, IN
ASSOCIATION WITH RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE. DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 12-24 DEGREES ABOVE-NORMAL ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA, THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN REGION, AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. FOR MANY
LOCATIONS, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL EASILY SURPASS 90 DEGREES F, AND SOME LOCALES
IN CENTRAL IDAHO, SOUTHERN WASHINGTON, AND NORTHERN OREGON MAY REACH 100-105
DEGREES F. THE ANOMALOUS HEAT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD WITH
TIME, WITH MONTANA PREDICTED TO SEE ITS HIGHEST TEMPERATURES LATER IN THIS
PERIOD.



SEVERAL WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE PREDICTED TO AFFECT ALASKA DURING THIS
PERIOD, BUT NONE ARE EXPECTED TO BRING HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE
STATE.

FOR TUESDAY JUNE 07 - MONDAY JUNE 13: FOR THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF THIS PERIOD
(JUNE 7,8), A SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS POSTED FOR
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF BOTH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKIES, AND
MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, WHERE THE GEFS REFORECAST TOOL
INDICATES THAT DAILY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES HAVE AT LEAST A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE COMPARED TO CLIMATOLOGY. A MODERATE RISK OF MUCH
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS PREDICTED FOR IDAHO, MONTANA, AND MUCH OF WYOMING
DURING THIS SAME PERIOD. THIS TWO-DAY PERIOD OF ANTICIPATED MUCH ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES REPRESENTS THE TAIL END OF THE PREDICTED HEAT WAVE ACROSS A
SIGNIFICANT FRACTION OF THE WESTERN CONUS, AT LEAST TEMPORARILY.



ACCORDING TO THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR, VALID ON MAY 24, SEVERE, OR GREATER
INTENSITY, DROUGHT COVERS 3.69 PERCENT OF THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR AREAS
(INCLUDING ALASKA, HAWAII, AND PUERTO RICO), A DECREASE FROM 4.07 PERCENT LAST
WEEK. THIS IS THE LOWEST COVERAGE SINCE OCTOBER 2010.

FORECASTER: ANTHONY ARTUSA

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