Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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FOUS30 KWBC 050113
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
813 PM EST SUN DEC 04 2016

...VALID 01Z MON DEC 05 2016 - 12Z MON DEC 05 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
50 E KOPM 10 WSW EBG 60 NNW MMMV 75 SSE E38 35 NNE 6R6
25 WSW 6R9 20 SW LHB 15 WNW LFK 35 NW POE 25 SSE ESF 15 WNW PTN
25 W KEIR 20 SSW 3B6.

MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 NNW RAM 15 NNW KVKY 25 SW JKA 10 NNW PNS 15 W CEW 15 SW OZR
10 NNW 11J 30 NNE ABY 25 NW DQH VLD 15 W 40J 30 ESE AAF
40 SSW AAF 80 SW AAF.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 SSE KMIU 20 W KOPM 25 N EBG 20 SSW MMNL 55 WSW MMPG 55 W DRT
40 ESE 6R6 50 SW E29 15 NNW ECU ERV 20 SE AUS 30 ESE CLL
20 W JAS 20 SW ACP 20 WSW LFT 15 SSE KVNP 35 NE KEHC 15 NW 3B6.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 SW HRT 25 ENE VPS 15 S 11J 20 WNW MGR 25 NE TLH 20 NE AAF
50 SSW PAM.


01Z UPDATE...

...SOUTHERN U.S AND GULF COAST...

THE LATEST EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REMOVE
THE MODERATE RISK AREA FROM THE UPPER TX COAST AND SOUTHWEST LA
WHERE RAINFALL HAS DIMINISHED FOR THE TIME BEING...AND THE LATEST
HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ADDITIONAL RAINS OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL
BE AFTER 06Z WILL LARGELY BE STRATIFORM IN NATURE GIVEN THE LEVEL
OF BOUNDARY LAYER STABILITY AND WITH THE MAIN FRONTAL ZONE AND
ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY POOL NOW WELL OFFSHORE IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO. HAVING SAID THAT...THE WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ACROSS
THESE AREAS AND ALSO THE REMAINDER OF THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS DO PRESENT SOME LINGERING CONCERN FOR SOME
RUNOFF PROBLEMS WITH ADDITIONAL RAINS OVERNIGHT. THE UPPER
LOW/TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL BEGIN EJECTING NORTHEAST
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND WILL
BRING AN AXIS OF STRONGER UPPER DYNAMICS AND SOME STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WHERE SOME POCKETS OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY SETS
UP. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES THROUGH 12Z
WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS EXPECTED BACK
TOWARD THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY. A RELATIVELY BROAD SLIGHT RISK AREA
WAS MAINTAINED TO ACCOMMODATE THESE ADDITIONAL RAINS THROUGH 12Z.

THE SLIGHT AND MARGINAL RISK AREA FARTHER EAST ALONG THE GULF
COAST WAS ADJUSTED TO BE CONFINED MUCH MORE TO SOUTHWEST GA...THE
FL PANHANDLE AND FAR SOUTHEAST AL. THERE REMAINS SOME THREAT OF
TRAINING CONVECTION OVERNIGHT FOR MAINLY THE FL PANHANDLE WHERE A
FRONTAL ZONE REMAINS FOCUSED...BUT THE EXCESSIVE THREAT SHOULD BE
QUITE CONCENTRATED. SOME ISOLATED ADDITIONAL RAINS ON THE ORDER OF
2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...WITH MUCH
LIGHTER AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTH OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.

ORRISON
$$





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