Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FOUS30 KWBC 270101
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
900 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016

...VALID 01Z SAT AUG 27 2016 - 12Z SAT AUG 27 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 SE KOPM 45 NNW RBO SAT 15 NE 6R9 20 WNW GDJ 25 WNW 1F0
30 ENE CSM 50 WSW CSM 25 NE LBB 35 NW MDD 20 WNW INK 20 ENE GDP
30 NW GDP 20 SSE ALM 30 W SRR 35 W 4CR 25 SW LVS 25 NE VTP APA
10 WSW PUM 15 NE RWL 20 SE HLD 20 SE IDV 10 WSW SHR 50 NNE SHR
20 SW 2WX KY19 30 WSW RDR 25 SSW FSE 10 WSW ILL 20 ENE FRM
30 NW UNU MWC 10 NNE GYY 15 SW ASW 20 WNW AOH SGH 30 S ILN
10 E FFT 30 SSE FTK 20 SW GLW 20 ENE MQY 35 SE MQY 20 W CHA
35 SSW RMG EET 30 SE GWO 35 S MLU 20 NW LFT 25 SE 7R3 20 SSE S58.

MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
45 WSW PRC 50 W PRC IGM 45 NNW IGM 20 E LSV 50 WSW SGU
30 NW SGU 80 NW SGU 75 S ELY 45 SSE ELY 40 NW MLF 10 NE U24
45 WSW PUC 20 NNW PUC 20 WSW VEL 35 W CAG 15 SSW EEO 25 ESE 4HV
50 SSE 4HV 55 ESE PGA 65 SSE PGA 30 NNW INW 35 WNW SOW 45 NE FFZ
25 NNW DVT 45 WSW PRC.

MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
125 S E38 80 SW 6R6 30 S FST 40 ENE FST 50 SSE MAF 35 WSW SJT
20 NNW E29 30 SW E29 30 NNW DRT 20 WSW DRT 65 WSW MMPG.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 SW C09 15 W BMI 35 SSW UIN 25 NW SZL 35 NE CNU 20 SSE UKL
20 NNW UKL 15 E SLN 50 SW HLC 35 SSE GLD 10 SW GLD 35 N GLD MCK
40 SSW HSI 15 SSW SDA 25 E TNU 20 NNW SFY 10 NW DKB 10 SW C09.


01Z UPDATE...

SOME MODEST ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WERE MADE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST TO FIT WITH THE LATEST SATELLITE
AND RADAR TRENDS...AND WITH THE OUTPUT FROM THE HRRR GUIDANCE.
THERE STILL REMAINS A THREAT OF HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN KS...AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT
FROM NORTHERN MO UP ACROSS SOUTHEAST IA AND POSSIBLY NORTHWEST IL
LATER IN THE NIGHT. SHORTWAVE EJECTING EAST OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS
WILL BE INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AND RELATIVELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
FOR MULTIPLE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. THE THREAT WILL EXIST
FOR SOME CELL-TRAINING...AND WITH INTENSE RAINFALL RATES THAT MAY
REACH OR EXCEED 2 INCHES/HR...AS MUCH 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT LEAST LOCALLY.

...SOUTHWEST...

A SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL
ACROSS OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES.  THIS WILL LEAD TO
UNSETTLED CONDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE 4 CORNERS
REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NORMAL
DIURNAL CYCLE.  LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 2-3" COULD CAUSE ISSUES IN
NORTHWEST AZ, FAR SOUTHERN NV, AND SOUTHWEST UT, SO INCLUDED A
MARGINAL RISK IN THIS AREA.


...CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST...

PORTIONS OF KS/MO/IA/IL REMAIN A FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINS AS DEEPER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ATTEMPTS POOLS ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE RETURNING
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY. ALL OF THIS WILL BE IN
PLACE AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS EAST OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...AND SHOULD FACILITATE MULTIPLE ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF
CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MODEL QPF HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON AN AXIS OF HEAVIER RAINS THIS EVENING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF ESPECIALLY NORTHERN KS/NORTHERN MO AND UP ACROSS
SOUTHEAST IA AND NORTHWEST IL THROUGH EARLY SAT.

ORRISON
$$




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.