Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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677
FOUS30 KWBC 310819
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
419 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...VALID 12Z TUE MAY 31 2016 - 12Z WED JUN 01 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 NW MLC 20 SSE AQR 25 ESE GYI 10 NW TKI 15 WSW NFW 20 ESE 7F9
10 NW 6R9 25 N SAT 20 SE SSF 55 SSE SSF 15 WNW ALI HBV
20 WSW HBV 20 ESE MMNL LRD 50 WSW COT MMPG 25 NW DRT 40 ESE 6R6
35 SW 6R6 40 ESE E38 10 S FST 20 SE MAF 35 NW BPG 35 SSW LBB
45 WSW PVW 50 WSW AMA 45 NE PVW 35 WNW CDS 40 N CDS 40 SSE WWR
25 ENE P28 WLD TUL 10 NW MLC.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 WSW PUB 15 NNE PUB 15 WNW LHX 15 SE LHX 35 NW SPD 30 NNE CAO
40 NW CAO 20 E VTP 30 SSW PUB 15 WSW PUB.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 NNW LNL 15 ESE RHI ISW 15 NNW LNR 20 SSW MRJ 15 NNW DVN AWG
10 NNE OTM 20 ESE CCY 10 N RPD 10 NE CKC 45 WNW CMX 20 NNW LNL.




...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...

A DEEPENING UPR LOW AND ASSOCD SFC WAVE ACRS THE NRN PLAINS IS
EXPECTED TO REACH PEAK INTENSITY TUES MORNING OVER NRN ND BEFORE
WEAKENING AND DRIFTING NEWD TO JUST NORTH OF THE ND/MN BORDER BY
WED MRNG.  CONVECTION ALONG ATTENDING COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THIS MRNG BEFORE RE-INTENSIFYING WITH PEAK HEATING DURING
THE AFTN WITH MODEST INFLOW/MSTR SUPPORTING A PERIOD OF MDT TO
HEAVY RAINS ACRS THE UPR MIDWEST TUES AFTN/EVE AS UPR JET STREAK
INTENSIFIES TO THE EAST SIDE OF THE APCHG UPR TROF.  BOTH GLOBAL
MODEL RUNS AND LATEST HI RES MODELS POINT TOWARD AREA FROM ERN IA
INTO THE WRN HALF OF WI AND U.P. OF MI FOR THE HEAVIER RAIN
AMOUNTS WITH ONLY SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT.  PATRN
SUPPORTS POTNL FOR SOME TRAINING BANDS WITH NEAR PARALLEL MID/UPR
FLOW WITH SFC FRONT...WITH 00Z HI RES GUIDANCE INDICATING SOME
SHORT TERM LOCAL 2+ INCH RAINS COULD OCCUR..WHICH WOULD APCH OR
LOCALLY EXCEED SOME OF THE LOWER EXISTING FF GUIDANCE VALUES.

..OKLAHOMA/TEXAS/SE CO/NE NM...

A RATHER BROAD BUT INCREASING FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS ANTICIPATED
TUES/TUES NIGHT ACRS MUCH OF OK/TX INTO PARTS OF SE CO AND NE NM
WITH THE INTERACTION OF A COLD FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL MCS DROPPING
SWD FROM THE THE CNTL PLAINS WITH THE SLOW APCH OF A WEAK UPR TROF
ACRS THE SW U.S. AND CONTINUED DEEP MSTR RETURN FROM THE WRN GULF
THRU SRN TX INTO OK...ALL WITHIN AN AREA WITH AMBIENT LOW FF
VALUES.   MESOSCALE PROCESSES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DOMINATE NEW
CONVECTIVE DVLPMENT..WITH AN ATTEMPT MADE TO EXTRAPOLATE OUTFLOW
FROM EARLY MORNING MCS AFFECTING SRN KS/OK OUTFLOW TO PROJECT
RENEWED DVLPMENT THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE...BROADLY DIFLUENT PATRN
ALOFT WHICH SHOULD IMPROVE FURTHER TUE AFTN/EVEN ACRS MUCH OF WRN
TX INTO SRN OK WITH DECENT SLY MSTR FLUX INTO SOUTHWARD MOVING
FRONT AND OUTFLOW BNDRY SUGGESTING A DECENT THREAT OF ORGANIZED
TSTMS/PSBL MCS ACRS NRN TX/SRN OK. 00Z HI RES CAM GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS POTNL FOR LOCALIZED 3 HR RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 3
TO 4 INCHES ACRS PARTS OF NRN TX INTO SCNTL OK.  ADDITIONAL STORMS
WITH POTNL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED ACRS W TX EWD TO
THE RIO GRANDE IN REGION...WITH HI RES GUIDANCE AGAIN SUPPORT SOME
SHORT TERM RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES IN SOME OF THE
SLOWER MOVING STORMS.  POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE CONDS INTO SRN CO THIS
AFTN IN A WEAK COL REGION ALOFT COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF SLOW
MOVING TSTMS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS BEFORE EVENTUALLY SHIFTING S AND
EAST TUES NIGHT THAT COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF ANCHORED HEAVY
RAINS AS SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE.


...MIDDLE PORTION OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD...

SLOW MOVING POST-TROPICAL BONNIE WAS LOCATED NEAR THE SC COAST
THIS MRNG AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT NEWD THIS PD.  THE
CIRC REMAINS WEAK BUT SUFFICIENT MSTR REMAINS AROUND THE
CIRCULATION TO SUPPORT BANDS OF MDT PCPN..MAJORITY OF WHICH HAVE
REMAINED OVER THE OPEN WATERS DURING MON NIGHT..BUT WITH ANY
BREAKS IN OVERCAST TO INCREASE INSTABILITIES...COULD SEE SOME
INCREASE INLAND AS WELL THIS AFTN AND TUES NIGHT.  MANUAL QPF TOOK
A CONSENSUS APCH WITH .50 TO 1 INCH AREAL AVG AMOUNTS THRU ERN NC
INTO THE UPR SC COAST BUT ISOLD NARROW AREAS OF HEAVIER RAINS WILL
BE PSBL LEADING TO AN ISOLD THREAT OF RUNOFF PROBLEMS GIVEN THE
RECENT HEAVIER RAINS ACRS THIS REGION.

SULLIVAN
$$





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