Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 030645
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
245 AM EDT WED SEP 03 2014

...VALID 06Z WED SEP 03 2014 - 12Z THU SEP 04 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
STC 25 NNE HZX 15 NE BFW 25 SSE CMX 20 SW ESC 10 NE AUW LSE
15 NNE TOB STC.

...UPPER MIDWEST...

STRONG FLUX OF DEEPENING MOISTURE AND INCREASING INSTABILITY AS
WELL AS ASCENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE RAIN RATES NEARING 1 TO 1.5 INCHES PER HOUR
WHICH WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO REACH OR EXCEED 1 HOUR FFG
VALUES...ADEQUATE FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCEEDING GUIDANCE.  RAPID
PASSAGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOWEVER LIMIT THE TOTAL EXTENT
AND MAGNITUDE OF THE FLOODING POTENTIAL.

SEE TEXT AREAS...

KANSAS...

PREFER TO STAY THE COURSE OF AN ISOLATED RISK OF EXCEEDING
GUIDANCE ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS THROUGH 12Z TODAY DESPITE RECENT
TRENDS OF CONVECTION SHIFTING NORTHWARD WITH THE BUILDING CAP AND
PIVOTING OF THE LOWER LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE.  THE MORE NORTHWARD
THE PRESENT CONVECTION SHIFTS...THE FURTHER REMOVED FUTURE
DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE FROM THE LOWER FFG REGION OVER SOUTHEAST
KANSAS DUE TO RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL.  IF CURRENT TRENDS HOLD...THE
SEE TEXT AREA WILL BE REMOVED AFTER 12Z.

TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST...

ONGOING RAINFALL AHEAD OF THE MCV OVER TENNESSEE AND IN VICINITY
OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/WEAK FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS NORTHERN GEORGIA
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD...AS WELL AS RENEWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN
THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS A BROADER MOISTURE GRADIENT
OVER THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEAST...WILL PROVIDE LOCALLY
SUSCEPTIBLE CONDITIONS TO BRIEFLY EXCEED FFG VALUES.  GIVEN
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES ALONG WITH LIGHT CLOUD
BEARING FLOW AND A WEAK CAP...RAIN RATES MAY EXCEED 2 INCHES PER
HOUR...WHICH IF PERSISTS FOR MORE THAN 90 OR 120 MINUTES...WOULD
BE SUFFICIENT TO EXCEED THE FFG.  HOWEVER...THE RISK IS TOO LOW TO
WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCEEDING GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME BUT COULD
BE UPDATED LATER TODAY IF AN AREA CAN BE MORE DISCRETELY
IDENTIFIED.

JAMES
$$




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