Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 301857
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
256 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAR 31/0000 UTC THRU APR 01/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN...

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO BRING THE RATHER STRONG
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN DURING THE PERIOD..WITH THE SOLUTIONS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THIS IDEA.  PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE HEIGHT FALLS/MID LEVEL DYNAMICS/FORCING ALONG WITH SOME
MODEST BUT PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT..SHOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FROM WA AND OR INTO
ID AND WESTERN MT..WITH THE HEAVIER TOTALS IN THE MORE FAVORED
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE COASTAL RANGES/CASCADES.  IN THOSE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS..SOME 0.50-1.00 INCH WATER EQUIVALENTS ARE LIKELY.


...GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES...

A COUPLE OF WELL DEFINED H5 S/WVS EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL BE IMPACTING THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
STATES THIS PERIOD..WITH THE LEAD S/WV NOW ENTERING SOUTHERN
MANITOBA AND THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM NOW OVER NORTHERN SASK.  LIFT
WITH THESE S/WVS WILL BE WELL ORGANIZED AND PRONOUNCED..AND 50+KTS
OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THEM..LIKELY
SUPPORTING AN INITIAL BURST OF STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION.  THIS EXPECTED LIFT SHOULD MAKE THE MOST OF MARGINAL
MOISTURE..PWS BARELY ABOVE 0.50 INCH..TO SUPPORT A SWATH OF AT
LEAST 0.25-0.50 INCH WATER EQUIVALENTS.  AS USUAL..THE NAM QPF
LOOKS TOO HEAVY AND TOO FAR NORTH..SO STAYED AWAY FROM ITS
SOLUTION..AND LEANED TOWARDS A BLEND OF GFS..ECMWF HIRES AND
IN-HOUSE ENSEMBLE BIAS CORRECTED QPF.  PLEASE SEE THE QPFHSD FOR
DETAILS ON THE SNOWFALL DETAILS.


...NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES...

SOME WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM H5 S/WV ENERGY ALONG WITH AN INCREASING
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION/MOISTURE ADVECTION PATTERN WILL LEAD
TO AN INCREASE IN RAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES THIS
PERIOD..AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE 2ND HALF OF THE PERIOD.  NEITHER
FORCING NOR MOISTURE ESPECIALLY IMPRESSIVE..AND MODEL QPFS ARE NOT
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT..SO AS A RESULT STAYED ON THE CONSERVATIVE
SIDE WITH JUST SOME 0.25-0.50 INCH AMOUNTS FORECAST.

TERRY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 01/00Z
 0.01 489613 489616 488620 486622 483625 482627 479629 476630
      474632 472632 469633 466634 462634 460633 457633 455632
      453631 450630 447629 447628
 0.01 536210 537204 535199 533192 527180 524172 521164 520159
      517156 512152 501144 498143 496140 492134 480126 471124
      469121 469115 474109 475107 473103 470103 466106 463104
      460104 462109 463113 462118 458125 453128 448133 446141
      444143 440143 439141 436144 434147 435150 435157 436161
      437164 436167 429168 432172 436178 435183 432183 428185
      426188 427194 428200 430202 433202 436204 437207 435210
      431209 427207 426205 422205 422209 422213 421219 416223
      412226 411229 407234 401237 399241 400244 403247 405250
      408251 423260 429265 431272 430277 432280 436286 441289
      445290 448289 454287 460284 470276 475272 481270 486268
      491272 494278 497281 501284 506281 508276 510273 515270
      519265 522257 523252 523248 519239 518236 518231 521223
      524220 526220 531219 533217 536210
 0.01 518220 518215 518210 518206 518203 519200 516199 512198
      510199 509204 509209 509213 510217 511220 513222 516222
      518220
 0.01 520957 520947 517940 514934 509928 504924 501920 500916
      499910 497906 494899 485889 480886 476885 475882 471875
      466868 462863 457859 454857 450857 447857 445852 441835
      438825 435819 431811 430806 429800 428789 426781 424773
      421765 419756 419745 417735 415730 413727 410719 406714
      404712 401710 399709 396710 391716 388723 386733 385740
      385745 385749 385759 386768 386779 386784 385788 382795
      378802 373808 371810 371815 372817 376817 379816 381814
      384812 388812 390815 394816 397817 402816 405824 406830
      405834 407841 411848 414854 417861 434888 441898 446902
      451907 460915 472927 489947 494953 499960 503964 509968
      514968 517965 520957
 0.01 493656 490649 488647 484648 483652 481657 478660 473661
      469662 466659 461656 459654 455655 452654 448656 445663
      446673 451674 453676 453680 454683 456683 458683 459686
      458689 456699 451705 444710 439716 436722 434726 430728
      428731 432731 437731 438733 436736 432741 426747 424751
      424756 426759 428762 434763 445753 450748 454740 457734
      463726 467720 472715 478710 481707 483703 481693 480690
      480687 482683 490670 492662 493656
 0.01 489195 487191 483189 479180 479177 477176 473173 470173
      466175 465181 462185 457192 455196 454203 457206 462207
      470204 473202 478202 481201 484198 489195
 0.01 459108 457108 454107 452109 450112 448114 447116 445118
      444121 446121 449122 451120 455120 453117 454115 455113
      457108 459108
 0.01 444111 444108 442106 440107 439107 437107 435109 435112
      437110 438110 440110 442110 443111 444111
 0.01 378071 376064 373057 372054 374053 379054 379051 378048
      373048 369046 366045 365047 362051 359051 359056 363056
      365056 368059 368063 369066 374073 378071
 0.01 359921 359909 358903 357899 356887 356879 354874 353868
      352865 349857 345849 340841 335834 330829 316819 310816
      306814 303814 300813 294813 290815 288818 284821 283823
      289828 293835 296838 299842 303849 307856 309866 311870
      312869 313867 315871 319879 324898 331941 335960 335967
      338970 339971 343969 346967 348964 352955 354946 356934
      359921
 0.01 316097 317088 316083 315079 311074 304070 299066 295060
      294052 293047 292043 290041 286040 282040 280043 277050
      277056 275059 271064 272068 274071 276073 277077 279080
      283081 289084 294090 299094 303101 305102 310104 313103
      315099 316097
 0.25 480616 479619 477621 476622 474623 473624 471625 470626
      469626 468626 466625 464625 464624 462623
 0.25 516254 514239 512229 509225 504221 501214 498210 491206
      481207 470211 465214 460215 454215 447216 442216 437218
      428228 426235 421237 416239 415244 419247 425250 437249
      448248 454248 460250 464254 469255 484260 497264 502260
      507258 513258 516254
 0.25 524187 524182 523176 521171 517168 515171 510171 506170
      503168 494166 489170 493179 501180 504182 507187 510190
      515191 519192 523189 524187
 0.25 494243 495238 494236 493232 492229 489227 485227 484227
      481229 482232 483235 484238 487239 490241 492243 494243
 0.25 473228 475227 476229 475230 473229 473228
 0.25 473161 473157 472154 471151 469150 466148 463149 461151
      460155 462158 464159 465159 468160 471163 473161
 0.25 460230 459230 458229 456228 454228 452229 451229 450230
      449232 450232 451232 452232 454231 455231 457232 459230
      460230
 0.25 440880 441876 440871 437856 433840 428824 422811 418802
      417793 415780 413762 412756 409749 407742 404739 402743
      398756 397765 397772 396789 397795 401800 410807 414811
      416814 417818 416825 418832 419841 422848 424855 427862
      435873 438878 440880
 0.25 346908 345895 343880 341869 338864 335860 331858 327861
      326866 326874 330885 332898 335910 339920 343923 345917
      346908
 0.25 302084 301082 299079 298077 295075 293073 291071 289070
      287072 289075 292077 293079 294081 296084 299086 302084
 0.50 511252 511245 511240 510235 507231 503228 501225 499220
      495215 493212 490211 481210 474212 466215 459217 454217
      450218 442218 439221 438224 440226 445228 450227 454226
      458227 463227 466225 473220 477221 480224 484225 488223
      490223 492224 493228 497239 497244 499249 501253 507254
      511252
 0.50 518185 518183 518180 518179 516178 515179 514179 514180
      516182 515184 514184 512184 511186 512187 514187 515188
      516187 517186 518185
 0.50 497258 497252 494249 490244 485242 482240 480236 478233
      475232 472233 470237 468241 471246 475250 483255 488257
      494259 497258
 0.50 460240 461238 460237 458235 457234 455235 453235 451236
      450235 448236 447236 446238 445238 445240 445241 447242
      449243 450243 452243 454242 456241 458241 459240 460240
 0.50 407771 407768 406767 406769 406771 407773 407771
 1.00 497231 497229 497228 496226 496225 495226 496227 496229
      496231 497231 497231
 1.00 487218 487217 485216 484215 483214 482213 480213 479213
      477214 475214 477216 478217 479218 480219 481220 483221
      485220 486220 486219 487218
 1.00 480244 480243 479241 479239 478238 477237 476236 474236
      474237 474239 475240 476242 476243 478245 479245 480244

$$




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