Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 250700
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
259 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 25/1200 UTC THRU JUL 26/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...THE DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST...

SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF ACTIVE CONVECTION HAVE ALREADY FIRED UP OVER
PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS INTO SOUTHWEST MN AND EASTERN NEB EARLY THIS
MORNING.  THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS DIFLUENT AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS
SYSTEM MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND ALBERTA.
THINKING IS THAT THE CLUSTER OF CONVECTION NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER WILL CONTNINUE TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD BEFORE GRADUALLY
TAPERING OFF DURING THE MORNING.

THE CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE SOUTH ACROSS PARTS OF MN AND IA
SHOULD BECOME THE MORE ACTIVE RAIN PRODUCING SYSTEMS OVERNIGHT.
WHILE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY HAD ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
AREA...THE FORMATION OF A 45 TO 55 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL HELP TO
TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO THE CONVECTION AND ENHANCE THE CONVERGENCE
AT LOW LEVELS.  BOTH THE GLOBAL AND HI RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST
THAT CONVECTION SHOULD TAPER OFF DURING THE MORNING AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET WEAKENS AND THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO AN AREA WITH LOWER
DEWPOINTS.  WE GENERALLY FOLLOWED THIS IDEA.  THE MODELS BEGIN TO
STRUGGLE WITH WHERE ANY PCPN WOULD BE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
THE DAY 1 PERIOD.  THE UKMET AND CANADIAN GEM REGIONAL MAY BE TOO
FAST TO MOVE THE PCPN EAST GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR THAT HAS
ALREADY COME INTO THE REGION...WHILE THE HI RESOLTION MODELS TEND
TO ARGUE THAT THE 27 KM ECMWF LAGGED TOO MUCH.  TENDED TO
COMPROMISE THEN BETWEEN THE NAM/GFS AND THE STORM SCALE ENSEMBLES.


...WESTERN U.S...

MOISTURE WITHIN THE RIDGE AND WEST OF THE RIDGE CENTER WHICH GOT
DRAWN INTO PARTS OF UTAH/COLORADO ON THURSDAY WILL STIIL BE IN
PLAY TODAY AS THE FLOW PATTERN WILL NOT HAVE CHANGED MUCH AND A
PLUME OF HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE CONTINUE TO
ROTATE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FROM AZ/NV INTO
SOUTHERN UT AND WESTERN CO.  00Z MODELS CONTINUED THE IDEA THAT
CAPE VALUES MAY NOT BE QUITE AS HIGH AND THE MID LEVEL ASCENT IS
NOT QUITE AS FOCUSED AS ON THU...WPC GRAPHICS HAD THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM AZ INTO SOUTHERN UT AND
WESTERN CO.  THE HI RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUED TO POINT TO THE
POSSIBILITY THAT ISOLATED CELLS COULD PRODUCE DOWNPOURS THAT LEAD
TO ISOLATED RUN OFF PROBLEMS IN THE COMPLEX TERRAIN... ESPECIALLY
OVER RECENT BURN SCARS AND NORMALL DRY WASHES.

...LOWER MS VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...

THE CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AT THIS
TIME REMAINS STUCK IN PLACE BETWEEN TWO LARGE RIDGE AXES CENTERED
OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AND NEAR THE BAHAMAS. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
SLOWLY SHEAR OVER TIME WITH RELATIVELY WEAK 850 MB FLOW TODAY.
CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALL CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR THE CNTRL GULF COAST BUT THE CONTINUED
DISORGANIZATION OF THE UPPER FEATURE SHOULD KEEP OVERALL RAINFALL
SCATTERED IN NATURE.

BANN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 26/12Z
 0.01 562051 563027 560015 558007 556999 554994 553989 546971
      540955 533940 521907 517899 515891 513887 513882 510872
      507863 504855 501846 497838 494830 493827 494826 498828
      500829 503828 507819 508809 509798 508787 509779 510767
      512760 516754 520746 523739 524729 523715 522707 520703
      517693 513685 510681 507680 499682 492684 487688 483695
      481703 475697 469698 456707 453713 451723 453728 456730
      461729 468731 472734 478740 479748 479754 478759 479771
      480784 484791 486794 488799 490807 492817 493823 490823
      480814 473810 467806 462802 458802 454801 450801 447800
      437801 429802 423806 420811 416816 408829 401843 391854
      388856 388862 389874 389884 388890 391910 391916 393920
      396930 402934 410934 414932 418932 424934 428934 431932
      438929 443925 447924 450926 454927 455930 458935 458942
      467951 470954 471958 474967 477974 480979 496975 500977
      502980 506985 510991 513999 515002 516008 513018 509025
      506024 503026 500033 499046 500055 503058 502062 499071
      497084 497096 496102 497105 499116 500123 503131 507139
      508142 509147 507153 505156 501162 502173 504182 505191
      509197 511205 516206 518205 522206 525210 527215 530218
      533216 534212 535198 534191 531182 530177 530171 533170
      535172 540168 546164 548159 549151 551141 549131 547122
      546117 547111 547104 546099 549087 555070 559061 562051
 0.01 519276 521264 521258 520255 516248 513244 513239 512236
      510235 508232 506230 506226 502217 497213 493217 493222
      493228 496234 498242 499248 502251 502254 499254 492250
      491254 491258 491264 493268 497273 503278 509278 512277
      515280 519276
 0.01 448012 449005 449998 446988 442978 441973 438970 435968
      431970 426978 425982 425989 427999 432008 435011 438014
      442015 446014 448012
 0.01 420048 417043 412040 409038 410035 412029 412026 409024
      404021 399017 396011 392009 386006 383004 383006 385011
      388018 386028 386031 382032 377030 373034 369034 367036
      366039 365042 364052 361056 364061 365070 369073 377101
      379101 380098 384093 388088 387081 392080 396083 404077
      406067 408065 410066 409062 414057 418053 420048
 0.01 395108 393101 392096 391097 390100 387103 384104 381107
      378110 375111 374113 374117 372123 367118 364116 362117
      356114 350113 346107 341104 339102 335101 330100 329096
      328094 329092 333091 337097 340099 342097 341089 336083
      316082 311081 307076 302081 295079 287078 283076 280074
      278071 275070 269065 265061 262059 258058 254053 247053
      243053 239052 232054 230056 228059 226063 226068 223075
      224080 226082 233085 239089 248098 250100 254101 261102
      265101 264099 259094 256092 257090 264094 270096 275100
      285112 293122 299127 303128 305127 309130 316134 322137
      332139 331124 332117 333112 337118 338126 335135 348143
      352142 353137 356136 362137 366142 371143 375144 377142
      379131 381127 384126 387126 389124 392120 393111 395108
 0.01 360772 360765 358761 354753 354748 353742 351731 351710
      349706 346703 341704 339707 328720 321727 316733 296760
      285772 269781 266784 263786 260786 256785 252787 247792
      245795 244799 241803 240807 238815 239819 238823 241833
      246838 250839 256839 264834 269834 273835 279834 282837
      288841 292843 297842 301840 301846 302857 301863 297861
      294863 292866 288875 275909 275922 275927 277930 279941
      283949 285952 288950 290952 289955 286958 282965 275972
      268975 265974 261976 260980 264982 267983 273983 279983
      281981 288977 296960 297956 298950 297946 294941 296938
      296931 297925 301924 305916 305904 308894 312886 315884
      318880 321873 326866 329857 331852 335850 338841 337835
      338828 340824 343821 343816 344810 347802 352795 357788
      359779 360772
 0.01 342171 343168 339167 332166 329165 327162 323158 317156
      311156 307160 310163 317165 325167 328166 335168 341171
      342171
 0.01 334058 332058 330057 328057 327057 328057 330058 332058
      334058
 0.01 292029 289022 286018 287012 284008 280006 278010 275011
      271004 263002 262009 262015 262021 265021 269021 273023
      279029 286033 290031 292029
 0.25 553048 554039 553032 549018 546008 541998 536989 532985
      531978 528966 525953 522940 518930 509908 504899 498890
      488873 484870 481871 480873 478880 475884 470891 466893
      462898 461903 463909 465915 465924 465931 466938 468939
      469931 470924 473921 476916 481916 488922 494931 499939
      505948 515968 521975 526985 530988 532994 533008 531023
      531033 531039 533045 536049 539053 543055 549053 552051
      553048
 0.25 545150 545140 543131 540124 536120 527109 526107 525101
      525094 524092 522090 520092 515095 511101 508110 507116
      509125 512132 515138 524150 528154 533158 539159 543154
      545150
 0.25 506730 505721 504712 501710 495709 492710 490716 489723
      486723 483723 481728 482737 484743 488755 493769 495771
      498768 500762 502757 504743 506730
 0.25 483947 482945 482944 481942 481941 479940 478942 478944
      479946 480947 481948 482948 483947
 0.25 450853 449845 447839 442835 438833 433833 429835 419841
      412848 410853 410860 412862 415863 414865 410866 407868
      403873 401879 401887 399894 398900 398909 400917 402922
      406924 413924 424923 435923 438920 441913 441898 439892
      438885 436879 432874 430869 428866 429862 432859 436857
      439857 445857 450854 450853
 0.25 443002 443000 441995 440992 439990 436988 434987 433988
      432992 433995 434998 436001 438003 439004 443005 443002
 0.25 382081 383079 382076 382074 382072 382069 382067 382066
      382065 380063 379065 378065 377067 377069 376071 376073
      376074 375075 375078 376079 376080 377082 379083 381082
      382081
 0.25 349778 348773 346769 340766 335768 333765 331754 330752
      327750 320754 317761 316769 317779 318782 318786 313792
      308796 318803 323816 328815 333811 338805 342799 347785
      349778
 0.25 315118 316113 315108 310104 305100 300093 295088 290084
      276078 271074 268072 263071 261069 259072 256073 256075
      260082 265086 271091 278093 283098 288104 298113 301119
      303121 306120 313120 315118
 0.25 311822 311820 310820 308819 307819 305820 303820 301820
      300821 301823 301824 303825 305825 306825 307824 309824
      311823 311822
 0.25 311882 311879 310878 309880 308882 309883 311883 311882
 0.25 291820 290816 286815 279815 274815 270814 265810 262808
      258808 256810 258811 264816 270820 272820 275818 281822
      284820 288820 291820
 0.25 281020 282018 283016 282014 280014 278016 276016 276015
      274015 272015 272016 273017 274018 276018 278018 279020
      281020 281020
 0.50 541140 539132 535126 530120 525115 519111 515110 512112
      511117 512122 515129 520135 525142 530146 537149 539147
      541143 541140
 0.50 507929 507922 507918 502911 498906 492902 487899 484897
      482897 480902 480904 484912 490917 495921 500926 505931
      507929
 0.50 499750 499747 499745 498742 497740 495740 493741 492742
      491744 491746 491749 493751 495752 496753 498753 498752
      499750
 0.50 434916 433909 431904 429901 428895 429888 427883 423881
      414880 409880 406885 404889 404894 402906 403911 405915
      408917 414918 422919 432919 434916
 0.50 380080 380078 380076 380074 378076 378077 377078 377079
      378080 379081 380080
 0.50 343779 341777 336782 332783 327784 323788 323795 325799
      327805 331806 333804 336800 339793 340788 342781 343779
 0.50 311111 309109 308107 306107 304108 304109 303110 304110
      305112 307112 309112 311111
 0.50 296101 296096 295094 290088 284084 281082 277081 270077
      265074 262075 265078 268083 271085 275085 277086 280088
      281091 285093 290098 296101 296101

$$




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